China Is More Dangerous Than Russia

The astounding statistics of the Japanese Air Defense


According to the Japanese Ministry of Self-Defense, the Japanese Air Self Defense Force (JASDF) has scrambled its jets 138 times throughout the last quarter of 2013.

All that happened due to the alleged provocative behaviour of China’s Air Force.

The number is pretty high, second highest during 2013. Only first quarter of last year was more intense with 146 scrambles; in Q2 (second quarter of the year) there were 69 interventions with 80 in Q3.

Obviously, much of the activity is related to crisis around Senkaku/Diaoyu islands.

In the period of 1945 and 1972 it was governed by the USA. Had it not been for this period the archipelago has been under the Japanese jurisdiction since 1895.

After 1972 the ownership was disputed by China, that claimed the islands, as well as Taiwan. The strategic location of the islands, fish density and probable oil reserves make this area highly desirable.

Japanese stance, on the flipside, is that the islands were found terra nullius by Japan late in the 19th century. Chinese argue that there is evidence that the islands were posessed by China before the first Sino-Japanese war in 1894-1895. The argument Chinese state is that the islands, being a part of territories conquered by the Imperial Japan, should be henceforth returned.

Anyway, regardless of the validity of the claims by both sides, what is clear is that the amount of scrambles by the Japanese QRA (Quick Reaction Alert) cells can be used to measure the status of the (difficult) diplomatic relationships on the Beijing-Tokyo line.

Steven Seagal: Trust Me, The Sochi Olympics Are Secure


So it turns out Steven Seagal weighed in on Sochi security this week, and he wants everyone to know it's nothing to worry much over.

Despite the fact, "a suicide bomber on the loose. Western governments warned of an imminent terrorist attack. Nearby American warships on stand-by," writes Tom Balmforth of Radio Free Europe, "martial arts expert Steven Seagal knows better, apparently.”

Seagal, appearing on Huckabee, had this to say:

"The chances of any of these suicide bombers actually being able to pull it off are extremely remote by virtue of the fact that Sochi is on such high alert. They've got amazing assets in place with great liaison over the world. President Putin is doing the very, very best he can. And, like I said, the FSB and [their elite counterterrorism taskforce] Alfa Spetsnaz are really some of the best on Earth, so it's going to be pretty tough for anybody to pull it off."

Seagal is in fact a law enforcement officer, and he is in fact pretty tight with Russia and Putin, but that doesn't make his appearance and corresponding contrarian analysis of the Sochi situation any less bizarre.

Huckabee, on the other hand, took the opportunity to level a somewhat strange potshot, calling Seagall "the unofficial ambassador who’s developed a friendly relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, something our president has not been able to do."

债台高筑上的中国经济繁荣令人堪忧

《金融时报》说，在中国之前的33个国家的遭遇说明，中国至少面临严重的经济放缓的危险。

《金融时报》评论说，2014年新兴经济国家中债务乌云压顶的是中国。
而有些经济学家担心，建立在高高的债台上的经济繁荣有泡沫破了的危险。
《金融时报》的文章指出，大多数经济学家和评论人士对中国的经济前景依然充满信心，相信2014年中国的经济增长率仍然会超过7%。

信用差额

《金融时报》分析说，中国自1990年以来经济增长率从未低于7%，也从来没有出现过未达到经济增长目标的情况，这使得许多经济学家已经无 法想像如果中国未能实现经济增长目标的情景。
比较一致的预测是，今年中国经济增长率会达到7.5%，今后5年中仍可以保持6-7%的增长速度。
但是，少数经济学家对中国的信贷差额之巨以及它可能对中国经济的影响持颇为悲观的态度。
所谓信贷差额（Credit gap），也就是最近5年来私企信贷与经济产量的比例。自2008年，中国的信贷差额达到了令人吃惊的71个百分点，使得债务总额超过GDP的230%。

前车之鉴

《金融时报》的文章指出，只有5 个新兴经济国家的信贷繁荣（credit boom）曾达到中国的程度，而这5 个国家无一幸免的遭受了信贷危机和重大经济衰退。
过去50年来，信贷差额曾超过42个百分点的33个国家中，22个国家在随后5 年内发生信贷危机。
所有33个国家都经历了经济放缓，经济增长率平均从5.2%降低到1.8%。
对中国保持信心的人士指出，中国有雄厚的外汇储备和国内储蓄来抵御金融动荡。
但悲观人士依然以历史为鉴。1995年，台湾的外汇储备尽管达到GDP的 45%，仍没能逃过一场银行危机。
日本、马来西亚的储蓄都达到GDP的40%，也没能避免金融危机。
《金融时报》最后说，在中国之前的33个国家的遭遇说明，中国至少面临严重的经济放缓的危险。

The Legend Behind 14th and U Street's Marvin Restaurant

Brunch scene at Marvin, 2007 14th St. NW

Motown legend Marvin Gaye is best known for his songs like How Sweet it Is (To Be Loved By You), I Heard It Through The Grapevine, What's Going On, Let's Get It On, and dozens of others that catapulted him to international superstardom, Grammy awards, and an estate that still earns about $3 to 3.5 million per year.
"Not to insult anyone's intelligence in case you didn't already know, but Marvin is named after Marvin Gaye," said Sheldon Scott, Marvin's general manager and marketing coordinator, with a sly smile. He explained to a few of us over a media brunch that the musician is a D.C. native, and even attended Cardozo High School in Columbia Heights. Gaye got his start singing for his church's gospel choir and joined a few Doo-Wop groups. After a decade of hits on the Billboard charts and millions of sold albums, Gaye started having problems with the IRS and drugs, so he exiled himself to a small town in Belgium for a few years of church, exercise, and a more holistic way of life. 
"Marvin's menu has strong Belgian influences as an homage to his time there," Scott said. Indeed, the brunch entrees are European-portioned and the menu is punctuated with Belgian waffles, with mussels served later in the day. Manning the kitchen is Executive Chef Angel Franco, who has experience as a sous chef at José Andrés' Minibar, Toki Underground, and Marketto.
Though the upstairs level of Marvin is almost always a lively party in the evening, the downstairs will turn into a late-night café with coffee and hot beignets at 10 p.m., beginning on January 31.

Sheldon Scott speaks as BrandLink DC's Ashley Mason-Greene takes notes

Every April, on Gaye's birthday, Marvin hosts a "Marvin Day." This year would be the late singer's 75th birthday, so Marvin is really kicking things up a notch with documentaries, music, and members of his family for an all-day party. The restaurant is already decorated with gigantic pop art imagery of Gaye, so add the extra flair of the party will make this a must-hit event for fans of Gaye and Motown alike. This year, the event will be held on Wednesday, April 2.
http://inthecapital.streetwise.co/2014/01/19/the-legend-behind-14th-street-and-u-streets-marvin-restaurant/#s_marvin-at-brunch_s

文革受害者丈夫“拒绝宋彬彬道歉”

文革时红卫兵实施了各种非法暴行。

香港大公网援引报道说，文革时著名红卫兵人物宋彬彬不久前就其文革劣行向母校老师和校领导致歉，但当年被批斗致死校长的丈夫拒绝接受。
大公报旗下的大公网援引消息称，作为文革中遭红卫兵批斗及毒打后死亡的北京师范大学 女附中校长卞仲耘的丈夫，现年93岁的王晶垚近日发表声明，指责宋彬彬等人掩饰当年恶行，强调在妻子卞仲耘死亡真相大白之前，“决不接受师大 女附中红卫兵的虚伪道歉”。
报道称，今年年初，“已入籍美国的”宋彬彬等人 返回母校，向当年文革中遭受批斗的老师及校领导公开道歉。
宋彬彬是中共开国上将宋任穷的女儿、文革时是北京师范大学女附中红卫兵领袖。
“虚伪道歉”
1966年8月18日，当在天安门城楼上检阅红卫兵的毛泽东得知向他献红卫兵袖章的宋彬彬的名字是“文质彬彬”的“彬”字时说，“要武 嘛”。
随后中国报章上发表了署名“宋要武”的文章《我给毛主席带上红袖章》。但宋彬彬否认文章为她所写，并否认曾改名宋要武。
大公报援引发布的王晶垚声明详细描述了卞仲耘被“惨无人道”殴打致死的具体细节，强调红卫兵是杀害卞仲耘的凶手、在卞仲耘垂死之际并没有予 以抢救，要求将案件“真相大白于天下”。
声明指责宋彬彬和该中学红卫兵负责人刘进以“没有有效阻止”、“没有保护好”、“欠缺基本的宪法常识和法律意识”开脱责任， 进行“虚伪道歉”。

大公网的报道也被新浪等中国网络媒体援引。

“反思和和解”

文革中红卫兵的打人之风很快由学校蔓延到社会。中国媒体说，1966年8月下旬至9月底，40多天里，仅北京一地就有1700多人被打死。

在今年年初举行的北师大女附中老三届师生聚会上，宋彬彬向当年遭受迫害的老师和同学做出道歉说，北师大女附中的文革是从1966年6月2日 她所参与贴出的第一张大字报开始的。学校的正常秩序从此遭到破坏，许多老师受到伤害。

宋彬彬说，希望她的道歉能够引起大家的反思，并说，只有进行了真正的反思才能走的更远。

宋彬彬还说，她希望所有在文革中做过错事、伤害过老师同学的人，都能直面自己，反思文革，求得原谅，达成和解。

宋彬彬的举动是继中共元帅陈毅之子陈小鲁就文革劣行公开道歉后的又一次当年红卫兵的公开忏悔之举。

FCPO - The Bull Refuses To Yield - 2/3/2014





 
The market immediately lost strength when it opened last week. Price closed below the all important middle band and took out my stop. A new sell signal came in on 28/1 when price stayed below the middle band and the Stochastic turned negative, but the sell signal was not fulfilled as the next day price did not go below the signal day low. I am now without any new position as there was no new signal. By the last week ended, price has shown some strength on the buy side again and the Stochastic has turned positive again. So I would look out for a probable new buy signal in the coming week. I would need to see the price crosses up above the middle band with the Stochastic stays positive. But a more solid buy signal would come when if price can close above its recent fractal high of 2604.

The MACD remains negative but it looks like it may go up again. The DMI remains negative with D- falling and D+ rising. This would mean the buyers are fighting back and the sellers are chickening out. The ADX remains flat at 20's, this could go either way.

 
The weekly chart's Stochastic is still falling while the MACD remains negative but flat. Price manages to hold above the middle band but was not able to penetrate the top band. The ADX is still falling with the DMI closing its gap. All these are pointing at a sideway market. Things to watch out in the coming week will be the top band breakup buy signal or the middle band support breakdown sell signal.

 
The monthly chart remains sideway as the past 3 months Japanese Candlesticks displaying it beautifully graphically with 3 smallish Candlesticks sitting on a row. The Stochastic continues to rise and so is the MACD. The MACD is still relatively "far" from its zero signal line, so it does not help the bull much. The DMI remains negative with the ADX just turned flat. This may be signaling as a possible turn of trend ahead. But at this moment, I cannot think of anything but to say this is just a sideway market.

The US Dollar Index chart needs to close above 81.525 in order to summon the big bull which I think should bring the buyers back to the FCPO. Meanwhile we begin to see a lot of self denials and show actings from the emerging market governments as if they should not to be blamed for the current fast unfolding crisis. Argentina government just announced they threatens to "Get Tough" on businesses that raise prices. Sound familiar ? It is so silly that many governments tend to think their rakyat are idiots and fall for their acting.

FKLI - Is This The End ? - 2/3/2014

 
The market took a clue from the Dow Jones previous week's large loss closing and gapped down on last Monday. But it did not do much ahead of a long Lunar New Year holiday. It also did not hit my stop placed at the bottom band. In the coming week, I will still retain my stop at the bottom band. The Stochastic is now below the oversold zone, but with the ADX rising, I would pay more attention to the MACD. The MACD is still falling and it is way below the zero signal line. So I would conclude this is already a bear cycle. The DMI stays negative with the D- rising, this is telling us that the sellers are still strong.

 
The weekly chart  deteriorates further as the Stochastic  continues to fall. It has just reached its 50's level. If it breaks below, it may be taken as another sell signal. The MACD is still falling, but it is still relatively "far" away from its zero signal line.  Price has closed marginally below the bottom band which means the final defense for the bull is gone. The DMI remains positive but it is fast losing ground, we may see it turning negative by the coming week. The ADX is still falling which is a solid confirmation of the prior trend has ended. But as it has now fallen below the 20's level, so we may see the coming weeks going into another sideway mode.

 
The monthly chart is also beginning to turn "dangerous" as the negative Stochastic barely stay above its 80's signal line. When if it crosses down, it would trigger an initial sell signal. The MACD may stays positive at present, but it looks like it may be having a negative crossdown by the coming month. Price has closed below the top band, something it last done on January ,2013. If by the coming month we can get a lower low of 1775 and a confirmation from the Stochastic, it would mean we have a sell signal at the monthly chart. This type of signal is usually more significant than those in the daily chart . And I would also want to bring your attention of the presence of a bearish divergence in this chart. Something that nobody should ignore. From the Elliot Wave point, I believe we may be at the end of the wave 5. If I read it correctly, this would mean we may be witnessing the end of our major bull market cycle and what follows should be some nasty bears clawing and mulling.

The market favors the bears more than ever. And if you had read all the Feng Shui masters forecasts for the year, you would have noted most of them are predicting the first half year would be problematic for Malaysia. I think the charts are also "predicting" similar scenarios.