Saturday, July 27, 2013

 Jim Rogers - Twisting And Turning

罗杰斯:买黄金不如投资农业


 
著名的美国投资者吉姆•罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)因其有关黄金价格将跌至每盎司900美元的预测吸引了全世界的注意力。他的讲话具有市场影响力不仅仅是由于他深厚的行业历练,还因为两年前 这名退休的对冲基金经理(他曾与乔治•索罗斯(George Soros)共同创立量子基金(Quantum Fund))成功地预测到了当时涨至峰值的黄金价格将跌至每盎司1200美元
他不断地警告称,黄金并不是一种神秘的商品,只有当那些认为黄金价格不会下跌的投资者全部退出市场以后,金价才有可能真正触底。
罗杰斯力图说服投资界认真考察农业领域。他向伊莱恩•摩尔(Elaine Moore)解释了自己为何认为农业在未来几年将成为一大投资收益来源。
问:你为何认为黄金价格将持续下跌?

答:黄金价格已经持续上涨了12年,这对任何一种资产来说都是极其罕见的,因此市场若不出现一次回调的话将会非常反常。
我并不善于找准市场时点,但我预计黄金价格相对于其峰值将下跌50%,也就是说跌至约每盎司900美元的水平。现阶段我并没有卖出黄金,但 如果黄金价格下跌或者跌至上述水平,那我希望自己到时能够足够明智地购买更多黄金。
问:为什么黄金会引发如此强烈的关注?
答:我无法告诉你原因何在,但我对此有着切身感受。当我在投资界的活动上发言时,总会有人问起黄金。而我更愿意谈谈农业。
问:关于农业你想谈些什么?
答:我认为农业领域更具获利前景。我认为黄金价格还没有跌至终极低点,但蔗糖价格已经接近底部。蔗糖价格相对于其历史最高水平已经下跌了 75%——世界上很少有什么资产的价格跌幅达到了75%。
我认为,农业将成为未来20年中最激动人心的职业发展领域之一。目前美国农民的平均年龄为58岁,韩国则为65岁。农业是一个老龄化的行 业,从业者要么临近退休,要么衰老死去。在美国,学习公共关系的人比学习农业的人更多。
目前全球面临着严峻的人口结构及粮食生产问题。如果不做出改变,那么无论支付怎样的高价,我们也买不到粮食。粮食价格必须大幅上涨才能吸引 到进行生 产所需的劳动力,联合国粮农组织(UN Food and Agriculture Organisation)为使人们认识到这场危机做出了努力。他们已经看到了我所看到的问题。你还需要再知道些什么呢?
人们把粮食涨价的责任归咎于农产品投机者,但问题并不是由他们造成的——问题的根源在于,农产品储备量现已跌至历史低点,虽然近十年来我们 的粮食收 成不错,但产出跟不上需求的增长。过去如果我们遇到了天气问题,我们尚且有大规模的粮食储备应急。而现在我们既缺乏粮食储备,又缺少种粮的农 民。
问:为什么对农业感兴趣的人不多?
答:我们经历了金融行业占主导地位的长周期,随后又经历了制造业人士引领潮流的时期。现在我们正处于一个中间点。
当我还在大学读书的时候(罗杰斯生于1942年),人们习惯于将伦敦金融城以及华尔街称为死水一样的落后地方。现如今,牛津大学 (Oxford University)的学生们都想要成立对冲基金。但这个行业的基本状况已经发生了很大变化。世界其他地区的金融与银行业竞争非常激烈,行业内的杠杆水 平很高,并且现在每个国家的政府都在严加管束金融业人士。我认为在未来的10年、20年甚至30年中,金融都将是一个糟糕的职业方向。
问:你在二十世纪九十年代晚期创立了罗杰斯国际商品指数(Rogers International Commodity Index),你在农业领域是如何进行投资的呢?
答:我主要购买的是农产品——还有农场。我在澳大利亚、印度尼西亚以及非洲收购公开交易的农场。你也可以投资于拖拉机、肥料以及种子——有 很多投资农业领域的途径。
问:目前你还投资于其他哪些领域?
答:除了农业以外,我还关注美元走势,因为未来汇率市场还将出现更多的动荡,而我认为将有很多人大规模买入美元作为避险资产。人民币汇率也 将继续走 强,还有我之前提过的蔗糖。此外我还购买航空公司的股票,并关注俄罗斯局势,自从1966年以来我对该国一直持悲观态度,但我正在调整自己的 这一观点。
问:你对被动投资模式怎么看?
答:大量研究显示,指数化投资的收益高于80%的主动型投资经理。因此被动投资对于绝大多数投资者而言是最佳选择。如果你善于挑选股票,那 么你当然可以这么做,但相关研究证据极具说服力地表明,基本上,大多数人都应采用被动投资。
新加坡金管局凈 虧266億


 (新加坡23日訊)因新元兌日圓和歐元升值,損及外匯儲備價值,新加坡金管局(即央行)上個財年凈虧損106.1億新元(約266.4億令 吉),為3年內二度蒙虧。

 “路透社”報導,金管局在截至2013年3月的財年,是3年內第2年出現虧損,虧損程度僅略低于2010/11財年的109億新元(約 273.7億令吉),當時新元也升值。

 儘管如此,金管局指出,新加坡今年上半年經濟增長率料在2%,下半年將會加速增長;全年經濟增長率料達預期的1%至3%。新加坡去年經濟增 長率為1.3%。

 金管局也下調今年通脹預期到2%至3%,並表示當前的貨幣政策立場依然是適宜的;先前預期通脹率為3%至4%。

 金管局局長孟文能接受記者採訪時稱,通脹率3年來首次降至接近歷史趨勢的水平,同時位于金管局認為適宜的區間內。

銀行遭下調

 他還預計,新加坡今年上半年的通脹平均水平已降至3%以下。

 另外,孟能文指出,中國經濟成長趨緩,消費和投資將較為保守,不過工作職缺仍多,經濟成長不會掉到7%以下,並認為中國成長趨緩對新加坡的 影響有限。

 日前信評公司穆迪認為新加坡銀行貸款增加,房價居高不下,恐影響銀行信貸品質,調降新加坡銀行體系展望。

擔憂銀行房貸

孟能文指出,低利率、持續成長的購買力以及高漲的房價,的確對金融穩定造成風險。

 他說,政府公債占國內生產總值比重過去3年從200%增加到270%,但政府較為擔憂的是銀行房貸增加,過去3年增加了18%。

 他指出,一旦升息,一些家庭恐陷入困難。故金管局將密切注意銀行貸款狀況,呼籲銀行放款要考慮到借款者的能力。

 他也強調,新加坡會維持一個乾淨且透明的金融體系,不歡迎避稅行為。

 他也指出,爭取成為人民幣離岸中心是新加坡今年努力的目標之一。

凤凰刘正铸连摄像师老婆都不放过 性侵女记者受刘长乐保护


外媒已经炒疯此事,但大陆各大媒体、门户网站却集体沉默,官方并未屏蔽此事,难道各位惹不起凤凰卫视 吗? 刘正铸说一口充满河北地方口音普通话,原为央视驻美记者,在央视20年,是江泽民访美的御用记者
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上周六凤凰卫视五名在职及前员工对凤凰卫视美洲台提起集体诉讼,其美洲台总编辑刘正铸性攻击女职员,凤凰仍持续雇佣刘正铸十多年。爆料内容 达60多 页,包括视频证据。控诉内容称,凤凰总裁刘长乐,做為刘正铸的亲密友人,持续赋予刘正铸这样的凤凰卫视高层完全的权力,凤凰长期知悉刘的行为 但无意纠正。
刘正铸在美任职期间,除了在办公室对女职员进行不经同意的抚摸与发表猥琐讲话外,还以工作为借口,引诱女职员和实习生到他饭店房间,试图与 她们发生 性关系,并以工作晋升作为交换条件。若她们拒绝刘正铸的性要求,刘就对她们展开报复,包括无理批评、威胁甚至开除。刘本人曾宣称这就是“游戏 规则”或“交 易条件”。
2009年,凤凰华盛顿站一名摄像对凤凰美洲台副台长曾世平表示,刘正铸试图强暴该名摄像的妻子,刘正铸称,只要该名摄像的妻子不反抗,就 会给予她工作机会。曾世平听后表明,她无法处理此事,并要该名摄像自己去保护他的妻子。
刘正铸说一口充满河北地方口音普通话,原为央视驻美记者,在央视20年,是江泽民访美的御用记者,2004年转入凤凰,担任负责美洲发稿中 心总编辑,主管美国东西两岸及巴西,墨西哥等地的新闻采编。因小儿麻弊后遗症,被同行戏称为“刘瘸子”。刘现年62岁,但以人老心不老在圈内 著称,刘曾酒后扬言:凤凰美洲新闻主播台,就是我的“炮台”。
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凤凰美洲的新闻炮台和可怜的摄影记者们
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刘正铸


党媒凤凰电视再曝性丑闻 女记者录影记录 5人在美告总编
——北美洲凤凰电视5名在职与前员工对凤凰公司提出集体诉讼

北美洲凤凰电视台的5名在职与前员工在美国华盛顿联邦法院对凤凰卫视台提起集体诉讼。

代表这些人的美国首都华盛顿的一名律师琳内·贝纳贝(LYNNE BERNABEI)在对外发布的新闻中指出,她向法院提出的控诉中指出凤凰明知其美洲台总编辑刘正铸性攻击女职员,凤凰仍持续雇佣刘正铸十多年。控诉指 出,由于这些受害者害怕将遭遇说出,导致她们精神出现严重焦虑与忧郁症状。

 
凤凰卫视美洲台(网站截图)
凤凰卫视美洲台(网站截图)

琳内·贝纳贝律师在这份新闻中指出,2012年8月,刘正铸性攻击一名华盛 顿站女记者,遭该记者录影记录由于11名现任与前任职员与实习生扬言要对凤凰提出诉讼,凤凰才在该年12月解除 刘正铸职务。

琳内·贝纳贝律师在对外发布的新闻中又指出凤凰指派接替刘正铸的新主管却持续对那些支持该女记者的员工进行包括批评、恐吓、贬职甚至开除 的行为。

琳内·贝纳贝已经代表这些控诉凤凰台的5名在职与前员工于2013年7月19日向美国华盛顿联邦法院提出诉讼。除此之外,两名凤凰纽约站 女性职员和一名女性求职者也因遭刘正铸性骚扰与报复,已经向美国联邦政府平权委员会对凤凰提出控诉。

针对琳内·贝纳贝对外发表的有关北美洲凤凰电视台的5名在职与前员工在美国华盛顿联邦法院对凤凰卫视台提起集体诉讼的新闻,凤凰电视美洲 台人力资源/行政 /公关部经理颜小琪在发送给记者的电邮中作出了回复说:“凤凰卫视知道有人在华盛顿特区联邦地区法院对凤凰卫视提起诉讼。但是,迄今,凤 凰卫视并没有接到 任何法律诉讼文件。

凤凰卫视不对任何未决诉讼发表评论。因此,关于这个案子我们没有更多评论。”

凤凰电视美洲台人力资源/行政/公关部经理颜小琪在随后发给记者的电邮中,针对琳内·贝纳贝对外发表的新闻发表了凤凰公司的声明。声明指 出,凤凰已经审阅 原告委任律师发出的新闻稿,对凤凰的陈述是错误的且与事实不符,已经委托律师捍卫公司的权益。关于这个案子,凤凰没有进一步的评论。

美联储谦卑中国


美联储逐步退出QE令中国承压

中国正在发生的资本外流可能要怪美国。
归根结底,随着美联储(Fed)逐渐退出量化宽松 (QE)计划,中国是受流动性撤出的数量效应影响最大的国家。
事实上,中国可能是最难以克服这一局面的国家。
野村(Nomura)分析师表示,尽管贸易顺差高达270亿美元,外国直接投资(FDI)也处于140亿美元的高位,但中国金融机 构6月外汇占款减少了410亿元人民币。
这家日本券商表示:“这表明中国6月发生了大规模资本外流,与2013年初形成了强烈反差。今年1到4月,外汇占款平均每月增加 3770亿元人民币。”
随着中国经济增长放缓引发担忧,以及政府开始严厉打击非法资本外流,5月外汇占款仅增加660亿元人民币。
美银美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)分析师高滨表示,与此同时,美国逐步退出QE带来的数量效应将对中国造成更直接的冲击。

与多数大型经济体不同,中国依靠外汇创造基础货币,而这表现为一个事实:截至2013年5月,中国人民银行(PBoC)资产负债表 上有83%的资产为外汇储备。
“由于美联储逐步退出QE计划会促使美元走强,中国的外汇积累将大幅放缓,甚至可能 出现下降,导致中国人民银行的货币增发机器失去动力。这是因为,可供购买的美元资产将减少,可供使用的人民币也将减少。”

流动性降低令中国处境艰难,并限制它推出大规模刺激的能力,而在信贷推动的扩张受到限制的情况下,刺激具有重要意义。中国财政部长 楼继伟在近期于莫斯科举行的二十国集团(G20)会议上将这种无奈的选择美化为:要推进经济转型,减少经济刺激。
更短期的关注点是,中国将如何抗击流动性撤出。
一些分析师认为,随着近期市场动荡的终结,资本外流的势头将减弱,不景气的资本流动数据引发的市场动向将发生逆转。
一个显而易见的选择是,开始降低存款准备金率。野村的张智威预计,从今年第三季度至2014年第二季度,中国人民银行将每季度下调 存款准备金率50个基点,以应对增长放缓和投资者担心经济硬着陆引发的长期资本外流。
另外,尽管高滨认为,中国人民银行下调存款准备金率的速度将不足以抵消资本外流的影响,但这一举措仍将被外界解读为值得欢迎的稳健 之举。

中国的朋友遍布世界 ?

巴西 盖高铁 拒中国投標

巴西为主办2014年世界盃足球赛及2016年奥运会,要大兴建设、盖高铁,项目的开標引得全球各大高铁公司摩拳擦掌,但中国的高铁公司却被 挡在门外,原因是中国曾发生动车追撞事故,不符合竞標规定。

《21世纪经济报道》週三报导,就在中国「7.23」动车追撞事故届满两年之际,中国高铁「走出去」仍举步维艰。

巴西的高铁计划8月开放投標,工程预算总额约178亿美元(564亿2600万令吉),分为高铁建设、技术支持、维修保养,以及为期40年的 经营权等部分。

高铁连接该国经济最发达的两大城市圣保罗和里约热內卢,据宣传回报率丰厚,因为每年至少有600万人往返于两市,建成后预计收入可达投资额的 3倍,吸引世界各国竞標。项目预计9月19日正式开標,但中国却连参与竞標的资格都没有。

巴西联邦政府物流规划公司主管佛兰卡表示,巴西政府规定,凡是过去5年內发生过事故的营运商,均不允许参与竞標。

佛兰卡曾任巴西交通部陆路交通局(ANTT)高铁项目执行主管。报导提到,为筹备两大盛事,巴西特別成立物流规划公司,发展交通运输。

佛兰卡指出,中標的运营商必须要有適配的技术,一定会包含车厢、信號系统、通讯系统等。也就是说,运营商的胜利意味著整条生產链的胜利。

国际標准不同

但佛兰卡说,中国公司最终有可能做到的是提供车厢零配件,「这些是没有禁令的」。

中国北车长春轨道客车公司宣传处工作人员表示,「这两年跟了不少高铁项目(计划),但还没有成功的」。

这名人士强调,中国的技术不是阻碍,但「標准不同」是在国际竞爭中失利主因,「这其中有壁垒的意味」,「欧洲另有一套自己的標准」。报导举 例,中国北车曾参与竞標的土耳其高铁,但土国最后选择法国阿尔斯通(Alstom)的技术,採用欧洲標准。
Afghanistan Dilemma for China and the US


Both countries have an interest in Afghan stability post-2014. They should consider cooperation.

As NATO forces continue the process of withdrawing from Afghanistan, the People’s Republic of China finds itself in a conundrum. With tensions flaring throughout the Asia-Pacific, in part because of a more aggressive Chinese foreign policy, the last thing Beijing wants is to face a security risk along its western border. Regardless of Beijing’s wishes, it will need to become more involved in efforts to stabilize Afghanistan. The United States and its international partners thus have an opportunity to provide incentive for China to become a more reliable international security participant. Unfortunately, China seems unable to escape the inertia of its own politics, while the United States is increasingly consumed by concerns involving Chinese activities in the Asia-Pacific.

The Afghan Element within US-China Relations

The U.S.-China relationship is certain to define 21st century international relations to a great degree. As such, the two countries, as well as the world, are scrambling to better understand the relationship. China’s complaints about bilateral ties stem from a view that the United States is unfair to rising powers and, in particular, disregards Chinese traditions and history. The U.S. position is framed as one where China is an irresponsible stakeholder within the international system. China is content to free-ride off the efforts of others, while exploiting the goodwill of surrounding countries and global powers.

These portrayals aren’t completely inaccurate in either case, but they do not sufficiently define this bilateral relationship. It is undeniable that trust between the U.S. and China is low and that many parties within both countries see each other as opponents. Yet, much of the tension in the U.S.-China bilateral relationship is linked to territory, commerce, and relationships throughout the Asia-Pacific region. If we move beyond the Asia-Pacific, then greater opportunity for cooperation exists.

As such, the future of Afghanistan offers an opportunity for these two major powers to work together in furthering Afghan national – as well as South and Central Asian regional – security. With the majority of NATO forces to leave Afghanistan in 2014, China is realizing that its investments in Afghanistan will be at risk, its Central Asian trade threatened, and its relations with Pakistan strained. In short, China needs to take steps to protect its interests.

The U.S., its population exhausted from war and its politics focused on domestic problems, is consumed with withdrawing its security forces from Afghanistan. However, Washington does not wish to watch Afghanistan fall into absolute chaos. Not only would it be negatively affected by the further loss of life, but it would also make the country’s years of investment meaningless and create a security vacuum that may once again require a major U.S. presence.

Thus, China wants to protect its Western border and the U.S. wishes to find a means to enhance Afghan security. This issue can be a basis for building cooperation between the two countries, while avoiding the tension stemming from the Asia-Pacific. Unfortunately, neither country is focused on the Afghan issue in respect to the other. That must change.

Bilateral Strategic Cooperation

Too many in the United States view China as an inevitable strategic opponent, ignoring counterevidence in favor of a quasi-Cold War worldview. Likewise, many analysts in China argue that the United States is a diminishing power intent on inhibiting China’s growth. Neither country should be so easily caricatured as such. Both countries’ foreign policy establishments constantly debate how to move forward bilateral relations. What both countries need to do is recognize mutual interests. Mutual interests, particularly outside the Asia-Pacific region, should be the source of U.S.-China international cooperation. In the security arena, Afghanistan’s stability is a major threat and a vital opportunity.

First, each country needs to figure out what costs it is willing to pay for Afghan security. Both countries publicly declare their desire for a prosperous and safe Afghanistan, but neither has made headway in exploring what international institutions it will need in order to reach the desired end stage. China, given its policies of peaceful development and respect to sovereignty, will resist pressure to step up its involvement in security matters. The U.S., for its part, will be intensely hesitant about China taking on a more robust role in Afghanistan. Yet the past ten years have proven that when it comes to Afghanistan, what works best is often not what any party favors.

Second, the U.S. and China should immediately initiate both formal and informal dialogues regarding Afghanistan post-2014. Experts can meet in a Track II setting to formulate policy options, while Track I meetings can follow. These meetings need to be candid and based on past arrangements that proved successful, such as humanitarian assistance and disaster relief operations in Southeast Asia and anti-piracy operations in the Gulf of Aden.

Third, both countries should utilize international institutions in which they have influence in order to build a comprehensive Afghan security policy. For the U.S., this means working with its strategic allies to provide continued training for Afghan security forces, foreign aid and private investment. In China’s case, it means engaging the Shanghai Cooperative Organization to mobilize resources throughout Central Asia.

Fourth, and most importantly, both countries need to cooperate in their engagements with both Afghanistan’s leaders and South Asian leaders. The U.S. can leverage its relationship with Afghanistan’s government to further interaction between China’s leaders and their Afghan counterparts. Both countries can engage Pakistan’s new government to show a united will that encourages Pakistan to do more to inhibit destabilizing groups operating in Federally Administered Tribal Areas. Finally, India should be brought into talks with respect to its diplomatic operations in Afghanistan and its own investment in the country.

Difficult, But Not Impossible

It will be immensely difficult for the U.S. and China to cooperate on Afghanistan. Over the long term, however these two countries have parallel national interests when it comes to Afghanistan and that must be the basis of all forward movement. Added to the complexities of the bilateral relationship are the intricacies that will be required when working with the Afghan, Central Asian, Pakistani, and Indian governments. In short, this is no small task. The alternative, however, will certainly be a more chaotic Afghanistan and by extension, a more unstable Central and South Asia.

This effort will be more difficult for China, for it will require them to revise their stance on international security engagement. There is no chance that China will send security forces to Afghanistan, but it is equally unlikely that another international force will replace NATO. Thus, China must engage the security situation directly. As such, the U.S., given its experience in Afghanistan, will have an opportunity to encourage China to take on a more responsible international security role.

Again, this process will not be easy, but it allows an opportunity for the U.S. and China to engage in coordinated security policy. Both countries desire stability in Afghanistan and it is that, not external problems within the bilateral relationship, which must be the focus of both countries. There is no more pressing issue in Central and South Asia than Afghanistan.
财神集资50亿炒卖黄金爆破 中国煤都2万人陷困

 

   
众 多涉及信贷的神木县民众本月15日围堵县政府, 数百名镇暴警察维持秩序。

中国陕西省“煤矿之都”神木县民众本月15日在县政府对面的人民广场聚集事件,再次将神木民间借贷推向风口浪尖。

截至本月11日,神木县法院今年共受理民间借贷纠纷案件2771件,已经超过去年的2015件,更是2011年的四倍多。近年来,神木呈现全 民借贷集资之势,可见一斑。

去年底,神木亿万富豪张孝昌靠借贷打造的“黄金帝国”资金链断裂,张孝昌被批捕,民间借贷市场崩盘,引发众多债主恐慌。

作为当地迄今为止涉案数额最大的以炒黄金白银为目的的集资案,张孝昌借贷资金累计101亿元(人民币,下同,约52.6亿令吉),涉贷人员 1380人,涉贷公司56家,而其背后多名政府官员亦牵涉其中,保守估计,波及人数超过2万人。

更有知情人指出,张孝昌以总价7000万元的抵押物向银行贷款4亿,而后银行职员违规操作,又让他获得4亿贷款。

《新京报》报道,在张孝昌的债主名单中,中国工商银行神木支行和数十位大户是放贷的主力,因为在北京拥有41套房产而闻名全国的“房姐”龚爱 爱,也曾经手贷款给张孝昌1.2亿元。

煤炭黄金价暴跌 资金链瞬间断裂

神木县政府对面的人民广场,本月15日有上千民众聚集。他们听闻神木财政已被挥霍殆尽,要求县委书记雷正西在调任前,解决好县里存在的各种问 题。

聚集的人群中,百余人都是民间借贷危机中的散户,他们都是债主,借贷者叫张孝昌。

作为散户,李晓华曾借贷给张孝昌100万元,对方给出的月利率达3%,而当时银行利率仅为0.7%左右。

2012年,煤炭市场低迷,价格从2010年的每吨600多元回落到400多元,神木一些煤炭大户要求从张孝昌手中撤资。

此外,张孝昌曾以5%左右的月利率放贷给需要资金周转的煤老板,一些煤老板亦无法短期内还贷,加之黄金价格持续下跌,张孝昌的黄金和白银生意 严重亏损,愈发无力偿还巨额利息。

2012年12月1日,这座集资金字塔崩塌。张孝昌关闭金店,连夜出走西安。

张孝昌被称“财神”

近几年在神木,很多人称张孝昌为财神,一是他钱多,二是他能给别人带来钞票。

张孝昌1958年生,神木县人,农民出身。

1979年,当了3年兵的张孝昌从部队复员后,到南京、扬州一带打工,期间学会银器加工的手艺。

1980年代初,他回到神木,开了家银器铺,将银元熔化后打造手镯、耳环等饰品,后来又开了“张孝昌金店”。

20多年里,神木煤炭经济兴起,许多煤老板出手阔绰、穿金戴银,也成就张孝昌的资本原始积累。

据悉,张孝昌在神木有两套房产,为了去公司方便,他在北大街路西工委家属楼租了一套房子,长居于此。

很多散户都知道,张孝昌有6辆车,分别是宾利、马赛地、路虎、奥迪、别克和一辆跑车。张家雇3个保姆,“听说光保姆月薪就8000多。”

多名散户说,张孝昌的金店庆典,不但排场大,还请来俄罗斯模特儿,每个模特儿劳务费3万,这在有40多万人口的神木县被口口相传。

种种奢华,使散户们对张孝昌的实力深信不疑。

澳洲矿商对冲黄金获利

今年金价暴跌,使得那些通过对冲防范价格剧烈波动 的澳大利亚矿商收获不菲。

黄金价格今年大幅走低,上月曾触及每盎司1180美元,为三年来最低点。如果以澳元计算,跌幅更大。

汤森路透黄金矿业服务公司(Thomson Reuters GFMS)在一份季度分析报告中指出,本轮金价走势有助于一些拥有远期合约的公司在市场中买进黄金并进行交割。

这家黄金咨询机构的分析师马修•皮戈特(Matthew Piggott)表示:“在第二季度期间,以澳元计价的看跌期权和远期卖出合约日益处于价内状态。”

Reed Resources等一些矿商已开始用此类交易获得的收益偿还贷款。这家澳大利亚矿商表示,它已平掉对冲头寸,获得现金2700万美元,并向瑞信 (Credit Suisse)偿付了1900万美元贷款。还有一些规模较小的矿商也已了结了对冲合约,如Mutiny Gold以及Terranga Gold。
 
在对冲操作中,黄金矿业企业通过远期卖出合约或期权合约,防范金价下跌。这种操作能够确保黄金的交割价格,不过该操作在黄金业并不盛行,这 是因为在市场看涨的情况下这种操作会限制收益。

尽管多数矿商不愿进行对冲操作,银行却会要求较小生产商买入对冲合约,作为贷款或项目融资协议的前提。由彼得•汉布罗(Peter Hambro)掌管的在伦敦上市的中型矿商Petropavlovsk就是利用对冲操作稳定收益的矿商之一。

今年早些时候,Petropavlovsk以每盎司1663美元价格给近一半黄金产量做了对冲。之后,“因应金价波动”,该公司又在每盎司 1408美元的价位上对三吨黄金进行了对冲。现时金价处于每盎司1350美元。

Red 5和Shanta Gold等少数矿商也买入了少量对冲合约。
过去十年中,金价大部分时间都在上涨。然而,GFMS表示,即便面对金价下跌的形势,采取对冲操作的矿商也不多。
皮戈特表示:“许多股东对本世纪初的对冲操作仍然心有余悸。”还有一种观点,由于金价已经跌了不少,高管们担心如果现在买入对冲合约,金价 却出现反弹,股东价值会受到进一步侵蚀。

此外,皮戈特说,由于利润率显著下滑,各公司目前正全力以赴降低成本、精简运营,而不是买入新的合约。新合约较少,以及矿商交割现有合约的 “去对冲”过程,导致与生产商对冲合约相关的未平仓黄金跌至历史新低。

截止今年第一季度末,矿商未平仓黄金对冲仓位比上个季度减少9%,为112吨。这是该咨询公司2002年开始发布这一数据以来的最低季度水 平。

What Edward Snowden Can Expect From His Life In Russia


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A flag for the presidential campaign of Russia's Prime Minister Vladimir Putin hangs out of windows of a house in Moscow March 2, 2012. The flag reads "For Putin. And that's all."
Julia Ioffe, senior editor at The New Republic, wrote a post about Edward Snowden's circumstances — reportedly sitting in the transit zone of Moscow's Sheremetyevo airport while he prepares to live and work in Russia. 
She gives a blunt assessment of the fate that lies in front of the 30-year-old American.
From The New Republic:

The reality that lies before Snowden, however, is not that of a Petersburg slum or a cherry orchard. More likely, he will be given an apartment somewhere in the endless, soulless highrises with filthy stairwells that spread like fields around Moscow's periphery. He will live there for five years before he will be given citizenship. He'll likely be getting constant visits from the SVR (the Russian NSA) to mine the knowledge he carries in his brain.

That last sentence there is key: The 10,000 classified NSA files Snowden stashed all over the world are highly encrypted, so the data is most likely safe (for now) even if a foreign intelligence service acquired it.
But Snowden's head is not encrypted. He is an NSA-trained hacker who "carefully read" 10,000 classified NSA files and knows his way around NSA interviews, and then managed to land in the hands of Russian intelligence.

Snowden started both a national and global conversation about NSA spying practices.

But then, after staying in Hong Kong for a month, he flew to the place that would value his expertise more than any other country. (The reasons for his travel path are still unclear.)
"There's little evidence from historical records that [Snowden] has anything good to look forward to," Peter Savodnika journalist and author of the book, "The Interloper: Lee Harvey Oswald Inside the Soviet Union" told NPR"Essentially, nobody from the U.S. who has defected to Russia has gone on to think that's a smart decision."

One thing is becoming obvious: If Mother Russia is able to start mining the knowledge in Snowden's brain, then she will have a field day.

Brian Owens opens ‘Masters Series’ with the great Marvin Gaye


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Brian Owens presents the music of Marvin Gaye at the Sheldon, 3648 Washington Blvd., at 7:30 p.m. Thursday, August 8 as the first of “The Masters” series.
Posted: Thursday, July 25, 2013 5:45 am | Updated: 11:42 am, Fri Jul 26, 2013.
By Chris King | 0 comments
St. Louis-based musical artist Brian Owens has prepared a syllabus in what he calls his “version of a PhD in classic soul.” In “The Masters Series,” he will produce and present a series of concerts focusing on the music of Marvin Gaye, Sam Cooke, Ray Charles and Johnny Cash.
He starts with the music of Marvin Gaye at the Sheldon, 3648 Washington Blvd.,
at 7:30 p.m. Thursday, August 8. He’ll perform with special guests Theresa Payne, Nao Yoshioka, backed by Good for the Soul, a two-piece horn section made up of Jason Swagler and Anthony Wiggins, and a string quintet of students who participate in the Saint Louis Symphony Youth Orchestra.
The American asked Owens about “The Master Series.”
The American: Why these masters in particular? Why Marvin Gaye, Sam Cooke, Ray Charles and Johnny Cash?
Brian Owens: They have all influenced my musical palate, and deepened my perspectives and ideals with respect to soul music. They've taught me how to phrase, feel and share music in such a way that the wall between audience and performer becomes transparent, which allows us to then share in a mutually edifying experience.
The American: Why start with Marvin?
Brian Owens: I wanted to begin with something that would force me to grow as a musician, writer and performer, and to be honest, it just made sense. It's Marvin Gaye!
I've  always wanted to delve more into the Marvin Gaye songbook. I love his music and the versatility and depth of his discography. I will say that I'm very quickly discovering why so few artists take on such an endeavor; interpreting the music of Marvin Gaye is no easy task.
He had so many wonderful colors to his voice! He had amazing phrasing and emotional sensitivity with lyrics, a simplistic virtuosity with melodies that in many ways for me is like listing to Miles Davis. To top it all off, he could be rough and edgy.
The American: Your release talks about this in academic terms, as “a PhD in classic soul.” What does Marvin have to teach us?
Brian Owens: More than we may have time to learn on this side if heaven! Here is what I'm learning from the music and artistry of Marvin Gaye:
1) You CAN produce music that is both commercially viable and socially aware so make music that feeds the soul.
2)  Never overshadow the song! Do as little as possible, but as much as necessary.
3) Versatility and the ability to communicate a wide range of music regardless of genre is important to the training an nurturing of any performer, vocalist especially!
The American: Who needs to learn the lesson?
Brian Owens: Anyone who calls themselves an artist!
Brian Owens presents the music of Marvin Gaye at the Sheldon, 3648 Washington Blvd., at 7:30 p.m. Thursday, August 8. Tickets are $15 General Admission at the door.Advanced reserve tickets and ticket packages are available at metrotix.com. For groups of 10 or more, email groups@brianowens.tv for a 15 percent discount.
A recreation of Sam Cooke's "Live at the Copacabana" concert is planned for Friday October 11 at The Rustic Goat. Four additional “Master Series” shows are being developed for 2014.


FCPO - Buy Signal Did Not Come , So Go Sell Again - 7/29/2013






The market failed to hit 2302 again last week, so my plan for buying did not materialize. But instead I went back to sell when price broke below the previous day low on 24/7. This is another real time lesson to be learnt here:- though the Stochastic was near its 20's level when most market commentators would start calling it an oversold situation, but that "oversold situation" certainly did not stop the market losing another 70+ points. Currently all the 3 indicators are taking side with the bears. The Stochastic though below 20's level, it is still falling. The MACD continues its descent and it is below its zero signal line level. The ADX is still rising and it has reached the 35's level. This means the trend is still going strong. I would either place my stop at above the bottom band or I can also protect a bigger chunk of the profit by placing stop at the previous day's high plus 2/3 points. I would suggest the 2nd method as the Stochastic's low reading may encourage some sellers to take profit and causes the price to flung upside a bit. The former strong support of 2230 now has become its strong resistance. Unless we can see a swift breakup above that level, I would think the bears will remain in control for the time being.

 

The weekly chart continues to add strength to the bears. Both the Stochastic and MACD are falling. The D- of the DMI is expanding upward, this is telling us that the sellers are getting stronger and flexing their muscles. Price stays below the bottom band and also the long term support of 2230. The ADX has finally kicked in its support  and rise. This is confirming a new trend has started in this market.

Both the daily and weekly chart now complimenting each other and support the bears.
FKLI - Bulls Gathering Strength - 7/29/2013





I finally bought in when the Stochastic turned positive on 23/7. All are supporting the bulls now as the MACD and DMI stay positive and continue to rise while prices maintain above the top band.  The ADX has also been rising which is confirming the current new trend. I am placing my stop at below the top band.

 

The weekly chart is also supporting the daily chart's bull. all the 3 indicators - Stochastic , MACD and DMI stay positive and continue to rise. The ADX is also maintaining its ascent which is confirming that the trend is intact. Price is also maintaining above the top band. So both the daily chart and weekly chart is pointing at another attempt to reach a new high. If it can clear 1824 level, then we should see it goes much further up.

Tuesday, July 23, 2013

India Getting Ready For War With China?

India is acquiring new platforms and capabilities that are turning it into a major naval power. Why doesn’t anyone seem to care?
800px-Indian_Navy_ships
Related Features


India’s drive to develop maritime forces that can protect its coast and project power into its surrounding waters is one of the biggest defense stories of recent years, but one that doesn't grab the headlines like its ongoing fast jet acquisitions. But the numbers don't lie: in 1988 the navy’s annual spend was INR10 billion ($181 million) – in 2012 it was INR373.14 billion ($6.78 billion).
New Delhi’s smart combination of procurement and geopolitical alliances was on display this week when Prime Minister Manmohan Singh flew into Tokyo. That India and Japan share a wary attitude to China is well known – and this is giving Japan a chance to test the waters of international arms exports in the form of the ShinMaywa US-2 amphibious aircraft.
The US-2, which is in JMSDF service and odds on to be selected by the Indian Navy for its search-and-rescue amphibian requirement, is the perfect platform for Japan to export: it’s an unarmed, humanitarian-first platform that is also probably the best of its type in the world.
For Delhi, it is the latest example of a massive growth in spending – and naval ambition – that has slid under the radar.
There are a number of possible reasons for the lack of interest. First, India is also in the market for fast jets. As any visitor to a defense show will tell you, fast jets grab the limelight more than even the hottest offshore patrol trimaran.
There’s also the fact that India’s not the only Asia-Pacific nation to get into the blue-water navy game. But while the PLA Navy’s every move is analyzed and used to prove China’s embrace of – or departure from – the “peaceful rise” narrative, the Indian Navy has received a free pass over its acquisitions, whether it is its own Russian aircraft carrier or its manufacture of another flattop in Cochin.
There are a number of possible reasons why New Delhi’s naval maneuvers are not raising alarm bells:
1)      The US has decided India is a friend
The United States has decided that India is a country it wants to partner with in the Pacific, with then Defense Secretary Leon Panetta describing Delhi in 2012 as an “anchor” around which a stable Indian Ocean Region could be constructed. The U.S. doesn’t like everything that India does – its nuclear program and refusal to sign various intelligence agreements are just two flies in the ointment – but it likes it enough.
It also likes selling materiel to Delhi: U.S. defense sales to India since 2001 are worth about USD13 billion and rising. For the Indian Navy, these include an amphibious landing ship and at least eight P-8I Neptunes – a long-range anti-submarine and patrol aircraft that is only just beginning to enter U.S. service.
2)      India’s naval forces are seen as underperforming
India has had the tools to be a major naval power since the mid 1960s. Its first aircraft carrier (a former UK platform) entered service in 1961 and given its close relationship with the Soviet Union and then Russia, it has built from a robust submarine force.
However, things have slipped. Its current carrier, INS Viraat (the former HMS Hermes), is drifting towards obsolescence, while a March 2011 report by the government’s Comptroller and Auditor General (CAg) said that between 2011 and 2013, the IN would have only 61% of its envisioned frigate fleet, 44% of its envisioned destroyer fleet and 20% of its envisioned missile corvette fleet.
So while India is spending big money, its recapitalization is as much about maintaining existing levels as it is about building new capabilities. Meanwhile, many of these big ticket projects are running behind schedule and over budget (see point 3).
3)      Naval modernization and procurement is chaotic, late and over budget
The 2011 CAG report identified delays and huge cost overruns in three key programs: the Project 15A frigate, Project 17 destroyer and Project 28 missile corvette.
The CAG highlighted multiple problems, including massive delays in contract signings, unrealistic budgeting, inadequate infrastructure at shipyards and basic project management foul-ups. One example was the failure to “freeze” the design of vessels prior to the start of construction, an oversight that naturally leads to all the other problems occurring.
In September 2011 another CAG report pointed out that the MiG-29Ks to embark its new aircraft carrier, Vikramaditya, were bought without weapons, “adversely affecting the operational capabilities of the aircraft”. That’s putting it politely.
Recent problems with the Indian Air Force’s acquisition of 12 AgustaWestland AW-101 helicopters for VIP use are also likely to run interference on the navy’s plans to buy much-needed helicopters.
Defence Minister A K Anthony is reportedly tired of the constant stench of corruption that surrounds major foreign military deals, but given the dismal record of local state-run manufacturers in providing the armed forces with the kit they want on time and under budget, the Ministry of Defence’s decision to tighten up regulations on procurement rules doesn’t bode well for the military’s hopes of getting new kit anytime soon.
4)      India’s maritime forces are expanding into a (relative) vacuum
Although India has used its navy in contingencies involving Pakistan, the Indian Ocean is big enough – and empty enough – for it to expand its role without generating too much friction with its neighbors. In the Bay of Bengal the navy is leading the military buildup of the Andaman and Nicobar islands, opening an aviation base, INS Baaz, in August 2012. At the base’s commissioning, navy chief Admiral Nirmal Verma said the island archipelago just north of the Malacca Strait offers India “a vital geostrategic advantage. Not only does it provide a commanding presence in the Bay of Bengal, it also serves as our window into East and Southeast Asia."
Ambitious words, but not of great concern to any nation except China. And therein lies the rub. Unlike Beijing, Delhi is not planning to use its navy or coast guard to enforce nine-dashed line-shaped claims that undercut its neighbors’ mineral, fishing or territorial interests. Right now, the Indian Ocean is big enough for a growing Indian Navy; the same can’t be said for the PLA Navy’s expansion into the South and East China seas.
It’s clear that some of India’s newly acquired new skill sets and vessels, such as the coast guard’s acquisition of 36 interceptor boats and 20 fast patrol vessels and the navy’s purchase of 80 fast interceptor craft, are a valid and much-needed response to terrorist – and territorial – threats such as the 2008 Mumbai attacks.
But in other areas India is building new, strategic level capabilities. The P-8Is and the US-2s amphibians it may buy from Japan give it serious naval aviation reach, while Vikramaditya, its troubled Kiev-class aircraft carrier, will embark the MiG-29K Fulcrum D – an F/A-18 Super Hornet-level platform that is a far cry from the aging Sea Harriers currently deployed from INS Viraat.
India is also building an ambitious strategic submarine fleet that will not only be one element of its nuclear triad, but is also intended for blue water operations far from friendly shores. It also commissioned its first nuclear powered attack submarine, INS Chakra, in April 2012. The boat, which is leased from Russia, has the range and endurance to extend the navy’s reach far beyond the Indian Ocean.
Throw in Delhi’s plans for an extremely low frequency (ELF) transmitter to communicate with strategic subs anywhere in the world, construction of which started in 2012, and it is clear that India is thinking big – and thinking long term.
 China' Has  Friends All Over the World

After Ghana , the latest China's "friend" in Africa turns on a shit face:-

Gabon to Seize Oil Field from Sinopec as Contract Dispute Deteriorates

As the contract dispute continues to progress with Gabon’s oil ministry, Addax Petroluem, owned by China Petrochemical Corp. (Sinopec), risks losing control of another oil field in the small, west-African country.

Gabon already seized back control of the Obangue field in January 2013, and Etienne Ngoubou, the Gabonese Oil Minister has now said that he will not renew Addax’s production license at the Tsiengui field due to a breach of the law, effectively handing control of the field to the Gabon Oil Co.


Bloomberg reports that two other oil companies working in Gabon face similar actions, leading to the possibility that it is all part of some ploy by the government to increase its revenues from oil whilst prices are high. Laban Yu, an analyst at Jeffries Group, explains that “when some of these assets were acquired, oil prices were low, and now prices are higher. Maybe the government is hoping to get a larger share of profits.”


Addax Petroleum is now stating that the Gabonese government was in breach of contract when it took the Obangue field from them in January.

Michael Wora, a technician at Obangue, told Bloomberg that since Gabon Oil Co., which was only created in 2011 to manage Gabon’s oil assets, took control, working conditions have deteriorated. “The production of Obangue dropped since January 2013 from 12,000 barrels a day to less than 6,000 barrels. Communities living around Obangue lost their benefits on health care, transportation. The majority of employees wish to leave the Gabon Oil Company and work with Addax.”

Three judges have been appointed to oversee the dispute.
Meet Saudi America 

Saudi America Will Overtake Saudi Arabia As The World's Top Oil Producer Within A Decade

There's still some debate about whether America's shale oil boom is  merely an overnight sensation or a true-blue game changer — we've featured both sides here.

In a new study published by Harvard's Kennedy School of Government, former oil company executive Leonardo Maugeri predicts that for America's three largest shale oil plays — the Bakken in North Dakota and the Eagle Ford and Permian Basin in Texas — the boom should last at least another decade.

He arrives at that estimate by calculating current well densities — how many wells there are in a given acre of shale play — and improving rig efficiencies, the result of improved drilling times and lower-cost drilling methods. Plus, he writes, new infrastructure coming online will make it cheaper to invest in these plays:

Figures about the Permian basin are still in the making, yet it is possible to figure out that the Big Three U.S. shale plays have a combined potential of many more than 100,000 shale producing wells, or about ten times the number of those already on line. Taking into account this potential, the limits to drilling intensity probably would start affecting BakkenThree Forks and Eagle Ford only in the second half the 2020s.

There remains uncertainty about the rest of the country's plays. But Maugeri asserts that the U.S. will become the world's top oil producer within this decade, leapfrogging Russia to topple Saudi Arabia.
When Religions Get Political Sponsorship

Myanmar gives official blessing to anti-Muslim monks


Buddhist monk Wirathu (C), leader of the 969 movement,
      greets other monks as he attends a meeting on the National
      Protection Law at a monastery outside Yangon June 27, 2013.
      REUTERS-Soe Zeya TunBuddhist monk Wirathu (C), leader of the 969 movement, greets other monks as he attends a meeting on the National Protection Law at a monastery outside Yangon June 27, 2013. REUTERS-Soe Zeya Tun
Buddhist monk Wirathu speaks to his
      fellow monks during a monks assembly at a monastery in Hmawbi
      township, on the outskirts of Yangon, June 13, 2013.
      REUTERS-MinzayarBuddhist monk Wirathu speaks to his fellow monks during a monks assembly at a monastery in Hmawbi township, on the outskirts of Yangon, June 13, 2013. REUTERS-Minzayar
People walk past 969 stickers displayed
      at a shop in Yangon June 25, 2013. REUTERS-Soe Zeya TunPeople walk past 969 stickers displayed at a shop in Yangon June 25, 2013. REUTERS-Soe Zeya Tun



(Reuters) - The Buddhist extremist movement in Myanmar, known as 969, portrays itself as a grassroots creed.

Its chief proponent, a monk named Wirathu, was once jailed by the former military junta for anti-Muslim violence and once called himself the "Burmese bin Laden."

But a Reuters examination traces 969's origins to an official in the dictatorship that once ran Myanmar, and which is the direct predecessor of today's reformist government. The 969 movement now enjoys support from senior government officials, establishment monks and even some members of the opposition National League for Democracy (NLD), the political party of Nobel peace laureate Aung San Suu Kyi.

A man stands in front of a mosque as it burns in Meikhtila
      in this March 21, 2013 file photo. REUTERS-Soe Zeya Tun-FilesWirathu urges Buddhists to boycott Muslim shops and shun interfaith marriages. He calls mosques "enemy bases."

Among his admirers: Myanmar's minister of religious affairs.

"Wirathu's sermons are about promoting love and understanding between religions," Sann Sint, minister of religious affairs, told Reuters in his first interview with the international media. "It is impossible he is inciting religious violence."

Sann Sint, a former lieutenant general in Myanmar's army, also sees nothing wrong with the boycott of Muslim businesses being led by the 969 monks. "We are now practicing market economics," he said. "Nobody can stop that. It is up to the consumers."

President Thein Sein is signaling a benign view of 969, too. His office declined to comment for this story. But in response to growing controversy over the movement, it issued a statement Sunday, saying 969 "is just a symbol of peace" and Wirathu is "a son of Lord Buddha."

Wirathu and other monks have been closely linked to the sectarian violence spreading across Myanmar, formerly known as Burma. Anti-Muslim unrest simmered under the junta that ran the country for nearly half a century. But the worst fighting has occurred since the quasi-civilian government took power in March 2011.

Two outbursts in Rakhine State last year killed at least 192 people and left 140,000 homeless, mostly stateless Rohingya Muslims. A Reuters investigation found that organized attacks on Muslims last October were led by Rakhine nationalists incited by Buddhist monks and sometimes abetted by local security forces.

In March this year, at least 44 people died and 13,000 were displaced - again, mostly Muslims - during riots in Meikhtila, a city in central Myanmar. Reuters documented in April that the killings happened after monks led Buddhist mobs on a rampage. In May, Buddhists mobs burned and terrorized Muslim neighborhoods in the northern city of Lashio. Reports of unrest have since spread nationwide.

The numbers 969, innocuous in themselves, refer to attributes of the Buddha, his teachings and the monkhood. But 969 monks have been providing the moral justification for a wave of anti-Muslim bloodshed that could scuttle Myanmar's nascent reform program. Another prominent 969 monk, Wimala Biwuntha, likens Muslims to a tiger who enters an ill-defended house to snatch away its occupants.

"Without discipline, we'll lose our religion and our race," he said in a recent sermon. "We might even lose our country."

Officially, Myanmar has no state religion, but its rulers have long put Buddhism first. Muslims make up an estimated 4 percent of the populace. Buddhism is followed by 90 percent of the country's 60 million people and is promoted by a special department within the ministry of religion created during the junta.

EASY SCAPEGOATS

Monks play a complex part in Burmese politics. They took a central role in pro-democracy "Saffron Revolution" uprisings against military rule in 2007. The generals - who included current President Thein Sein and most senior members of his government - suppressed them. Now, Thein Sein's ambitious program of reforms has ushered in new freedoms of speech and assembly, liberating the country's roughly 500,000 monks. They can travel at will to spread Buddhist teachings, including 969 doctrine.

In Burma's nascent democracy, the monks have emerged as a political force in the run-up to a general election scheduled for 2015. Their new potency has given rise to a conspiracy theory here: The 969 movement is controlled by disgruntled hardliners from the previous junta, who are fomenting unrest to derail the reforms and foil an election landslide by Suu Kyi's NLD.

No evidence has emerged to support this belief. But some in the government say there is possibly truth to it.

"Some people are very eager to reform, some people don't want to reform," Soe Thein, one of President Thein Sein's two closest advisors, told Reuters. "So, regarding the sectarian violence, some people may be that side - the anti-reform side."

Even if 969 isn't controlled by powerful hardliners, it has broad support, both in high places and at the grass roots, where it is a genuine and growing movement.

Officials offer tacit backing, said Wimala, the 969 monk. "By letting us give speeches to protect our religion and race, I assume they are supporting us," he said.

The Yangon representative of the Burmese Muslim Association agreed. "The anti-Muslim movement is growing and the government isn't stopping it," said Myo Win, a Muslim teacher. Myo Win likened 969 to the Ku Klux Klan.

The religion minister, Sann Sint, said the movement doesn't have official state backing. But he defended Wirathu and other monks espousing the creed.

"I don't think they are preaching to make problems," he said.

Local authorities, too, have lent the movement some backing.

Its logo - now one of Myanmar's most recognizable - bears the Burmese numerals 969, a chakra wheel and four Asiatic lions representing the ancient Buddhist emperor Ashoka. Stickers with the logo are handed out free at speeches. They adorn shops, homes, taxis and souvenir stalls at the nation's most revered Buddhist pagoda, the Shwedagon. They are a common sight in areas plagued by unrest.

Some authorities treat the symbol with reverence. A court in Bago, a region near Yangon hit by anti-Muslim violence this year, jailed a Muslim man for two years in April after he removed a 969 sticker from a betel-nut shop. He was sentenced under a section of Burma's colonial-era Penal Code, which outlaws "deliberate and malicious acts intended to outrage religious feelings".

QUASI-OFFICIAL ORIGINS

The 969 movement's ties to the state date back to the creed's origins. Wimala, Wirathu and other 969 preachers credit its creation to the late Kyaw Lwin, an ex-monk, government official and prolific writer, now largely forgotten outside religious circles.

Myanmar's former dictators handpicked Kyaw Lwin to promote Buddhism after the brutal suppression of the 1988 democracy uprising. Thousands were killed or injured after soldiers opened fire on unarmed protesters, including monks. Later, to signal their disgust, monks refused to accept alms from military families for three months, a potent gesture in devoutly Buddhist Myanmar.

Afterwards, the military set about co-opting Buddhism in an effort to tame rebellious monks and repair its image. Monks were registered and their movements restricted. State-run media ran almost daily reports of generals overseeing temple renovations or donating alms to abbots.

In 1991, the junta created a Department for the Promotion and Propagation of the Sasana (DPPS), a unit within the Religion Ministry, and appointed Kyaw Lwin as its head. Sasana means "religion" in Pali, the liturgical language of Theravada Buddhism; in Burma, the word is synonymous with Buddhism itself.

The following year, the DPPS published "How To Live As A Good Buddhist," a distillation of Kyaw Lwin's writings. It was republished in 2000 as "The Best Buddhist," its cover bearing an early version of the 969 logo.

Kyaw Lwin stepped down in 1992. The current head is Khine Aung, a former military officer.

Kyaw Lwin's widow and son still live in his modest home in central Yangon. Its living room walls are lined with shelves of Kyaw Lwin's books and framed photos of him as a monk and meditation master.

Another photo shows Kyaw Lwin sharing a joke with Lieutenant General Khin Nyunt, then chief of military intelligence and one of Myanmar's most feared men. Kyaw Lwin enjoyed close relations with other junta leaders, said his son, Aung Lwin Tun, 38, a car importer. He was personally instructed to write "The Best Buddhist" by the late Saw Maung, then Myanmar's senior-most general. He met "often" to discuss religion with ex-dictator Than Shwe, who retired in March 2011 and has been out of the public eye since then.

"The Best Buddhist" is out of print, but Aung Lwin Tun plans to republish it. "Many people are asking for it now," he said. He supports today's 969 movement, including its anti-Muslim boycott. "It's like building a fence to protect our religion," he said.

Also supporting 969 is Kyaw Lwin's widow, 65, whose name was withheld at the family's request. She claimed that Buddhists who marry Muslims are forced at their weddings to tread on an image of Buddha, and that the ritual slaughter of animals by Shi'ite Muslims makes it easier for them to kill humans.

Among the monks Kyaw Lwin met during his time as DPPS chief was Wiseitta Biwuntha, who hailed from the town of Kyaukse, near the northern cultural capital of Mandalay. Better known as Wirathu, he is today one of the 969's most incendiary leaders.

Wirathu and Kyaw Lwin stayed in touch after their 1992 meeting, said Aung Lwin Tun, who believed his father would admire Wirathu's teachings. "He is doing what other people won't - protecting and promoting the religion."

Kyaw Lwin died in 2001, aged 70. That same year, Wirathu began preaching about 969, and the U.S. State Department reported "a sharp increase in anti-Muslim violence" in Myanmar. Anti-Muslim sentiment was stoked in March 2001 by the Taliban's destruction of Buddhist statues in Bamiyan, Afghanistan, and in September by al Qaeda's attacks in the United States.

Two years later, Wirathu was arrested and sentenced to 25 years in jail for distributing anti-Muslim pamphlets that incited communal riots in his hometown. At least 10 Muslims were killed by a Buddhist mob, according to a State Department report. The 969 movement had spilled its first blood.

969 VERSUS 786

Wirathu was freed in 2011 during an amnesty for political prisoners. While the self-styled "Burmese bin Laden" has become the militant face of 969, the movement derives evangelical energy from monks in Mon, a coastal state where people pride themselves on being Myanmar's first Buddhists. Since last year's violence they have organized a network across the nation. They led a boycott last year of a Muslim-owned bus company in Moulmein, Mon's capital. Extending that boycott nationwide has become a central 969 goal.

Muslims held many senior government positions after Myanmar gained independence from Britain in 1948. That changed in 1962, when the military seized power and stymied the hiring and promoting of Muslim officials. The military drew on popular prejudices that Muslims dominated business and used their profits to build mosques, buy Buddhist wives and spread Islamic teachings.

All this justified the current boycott of Muslim businesses, said Zarni Win Tun, a 31-year-old lawyer and 969 devotee, who said Muslims had long shunned Buddhist businesses. "We didn't start the boycott - they did," she said. "We're just using their methods."

By that she means the number 786, which Muslims of South Asian origin often display on their homes and businesses. It is a numerical representation of the Islamic blessing, "In the Name of Allah, the Compassionate and Merciful". But Buddhists in Myanmar - a country obsessed by numerology - claim the sum of the three numbers signifies a Muslim plan for world domination in the 21st century.

It is possible to understand why some Buddhists might believe this. Religious and dietary customs prohibit Muslims from frequenting Buddhist restaurants, for example. Muslims also dominate some small- and medium-sized business sectors. The names of Muslim-owned construction companies - Naing Group, Motherland, Fatherland - are winning extra prominence now that Yangon is experiencing a reform-era building boom.

However, the biggest construction firms - those involved in multi-billion-dollar infrastructure projects - are run by tycoons linked to members of the former dictatorship. They are Buddhists.

Buddhist clients have canceled contracts with Muslim-owned construction companies in northern Yangon, fearing attacks by 969 followers on the finished buildings, said Shwe Muang, a Muslim MP with the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party. "I worry that if this starts in one township it will infect others," he said.

"OUR LIVES ARE NOT SAFE"

For Zarni Win Tun, the 969 devotee, shunning Muslims is a means of ensuring sectarian peace. She points to the Meikhtila violence, which was sparked by an argument between Buddhist customers and a Muslim gold-shop owner. "If they'd bought from their own people, the problem wouldn't have happened," she said.

Her conviction that segregation is the solution to sectarian strife is echoed in national policy. A total of at least 153,000 Muslims have been displaced in the past year after the violence in Rakhine and in central Myanmar. Most are concentrated in camps guarded by the security forces with little hope of returning to their old lives.

A few prominent monks have publicly criticized the 969 movement, and some Facebook users have launched a campaign to boycott taxis displaying its stickers. Some Yangon street stalls have started selling 969 CDs more discreetly since the Meikhtila bloodbath. The backlash has otherwise been muted.

Wimala, the Mon monk, shrugged off criticism from fellow monks. "They shouldn't try to stop us from doing good things," he said.

In mid-June, he and Wirathu attended a hundreds-strong monastic convention near Yangon, where Wirathu presented a proposal to restrict Buddhist women from marrying Muslim men.

In another sign 969 is going mainstream, Wirathu's bid was supported by Dhammapiya, a U.S.-educated professor at the International Theravada Buddhist Missionary University in Yangon, a respected institution with links to other Buddhist universities in Asia.

Dhammapiya described 969 as a peaceful movement that is helping Myanmar through a potentially turbulent transition. "The 969 issue for us is no issue," Dhammapiya told Reuters. "Buddhists always long to live in peace and harmony."

NO MOSQUES HERE

The only mass movement to rival 969 is the National League for Democracy. Their relationship is both antagonistic and complementary.

In a speech posted on YouTube in late March, Wirathu said the party and Suu Kyi's inner circle were dominated by Muslims. "If you look at NLD offices in any town, you will see bearded people," he said. Followers of Wimala told Reuters they had removed photos of Suu Kyi - a devout Buddhist - from their homes to protest her apparent reluctance to speak up for Buddhists affected by last year's violence in Rakhine. Suu Kyi's reticence on sectarian violence has also angered Muslims.

The Burmese Muslim Association has accused NLD members of handing out 969 materials in Yangon.

Party spokesman Nyan Win said "some NLD members" were involved in the movement. "But the NLD cannot interfere with the freedoms or rights of members," he said. "They all have the right to do what they want in terms of social affairs."

Min Thet Lin, 36, a taxi driver, is exercising that right. The front and back windows of his car are plastered with 969 stickers. He is also an NLD leader in Thaketa, a working-class Yangon township known for anti-Muslim sentiment.

In February, Buddhist residents of Thaketa descended upon an Islamic school in Min Thet Lin's neighborhood which they claimed was being secretly converted into a mosque. Riot police were deployed while the structure was demolished.

A month later, Wimala and two other Mon monks visited Thaketa to give Buddhists what a promotional leaflet called "dhamma medicine" - that is, three days of 969 sermons. "Don't give up the fight," urged the leaflet.

Today, the property is sealed off and guarded by police. "People don't want a mosque here," said Min Thet Lin.

As he spoke, 969's pop anthem, "Song to Whip Up Religious Blood," rang over the rooftops. A nearby monastic school was playing the song for enrolling pupils.
Finance More: Japan Nikkei Pop Culture Pop Music

There's A Japanese Pop Girl Group That Bases All Their Outfits On The Rise And Fall Of The Nikkei


If you're looking for proof that Japan's precarious economic situation is leaving a mark on its society at large, look no further. There's a pop group that is completely dedicated to watching, and singing about, how their markets are doing, and they've become a sensation.

Their name is Machikado Keiki Japan — which roughly means Economic Conditions on the Streets of Japan — and since their debut single on April 7th, the group of four Japanese girls has been singing about the impact of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's economic policies on the people of Japan, Japan Times reports.

The length of their skirts even rises and falls with the dramatic moves of the Nikkei. When it's up, their skirts are up and when it's down, they wear longer dresses.

Machikado Keiki Japan's first single was called "Abeno Mix" (see what they did there?) and the lyrics read: “Fix the yen’s appreciation. Quantitative easing. Don’t forget public investment,” a line in the dance-pop tune goes. “Monetary easing. Construction bonds. Let’s just revise the Bank of Japan Law.”

None of the girls have a degree in economics.

From Japan Times:

The group’s fans — who not surprisingly are 95 percent male, from high school to their 50s — have special chants that they perform during the song’s interlude.

“They yell out economic terms during our concerts, something like Shinzo Abe! Monetary policy! Private investment!” Mori said.

“Economics are often just about the mood of the people, which is something intangible,” Sakura, 20, pointed out...

The young ladies are eager to see the economy get on a roll, although they have yet to decide what their costumes will look like if the Nikkei tops 15,000.

Pretty wild, huh? Check out one of their videos below


America Can Tell The Arabs To Go FUCK Themselves

IT'S WORKING: The Shale Boom Has Given America Tons Of Political Leverage In The Middle East

Many have been sceptical of the true extent of the shale revolution's impact on the U.S. economy, beyond localized effects like lowering mid-continent crude prices and reducing costs for industrial petroleum product manufacturing.

But in a new note, Standard and Poor RatingsDirect's Peter Rigby says it's actually given the U.S. a tremendous amount of political leverage.

Specifically, it can impose sanctions on Iran without the ricochet effect of spiking crude oil prices.

The Boston Company has made a similar argument — that U.S. crude production may not be causing prices to go down, but has dampened market volatility.

In a follow-up email , Rigby elaborated on his point:

...as Iranian supply came off the global market, new US supply was coming on line to contribute to meeting global demand.

So even though US supply, for all practical purposes, does not go onto the global market, it contributes to global supplies. The price is still global, which the US pays, adjusted, of course, for transportation and crude quality differentials.

So, all else being equal, had the embargo gone into effect without that new 1 million barrels per day from the US, there would have been upwards price pressure on crude.

One million barrels is not an insignificant amount, as evidenced by the changing crude oil shipping patterns that are emerging.

Rigby cautioned that the Saudis still hold all the cards.

But it looks like the U.S. is finally getting some leverage.