Sunday, September 18, 2011


KCPO:- I Am Still Waiting -9/19/2011




This is a classic "market going nowhere" show here at te KCPO market. The ADX continues its fall and now has now gone below its 20's signal line. With the tightening Bollinger Band, these two indicators are telling us that the market is really banging up and down but without any clear directional move.

The MACD, DMI and Stochastic are now positive in unison. The more encouraging story is that MACD is fast breaking up its zero signal line. The not so encouraging item is the Stochastic is also fast reaching its overbought zone (ADX is low, so I am concerned about this) I have drawn a horizontal line to mark out its recent upper range, I would buy more aggressively if price is able to break out and close above this range. And yes, I still remain X bullish about this market.

 
The weekly chart continues to improve as the Stochastic has crossed up its 20's signal line. With prices closed above the lower band, this offers an initial buy signal. The MACD seems to be turning around but it still remain negative. The ADX has turned flat again signalling the bears are losing steam.

Meanwhile go entertain yourselves while waiting for a big one.
FKLI:- Will We Able To See A Little Rebound ?- 9/19/2011



Though most of the indicators were pointing at a listless market last week, I was warning that we should not let our guard down of another possible bear's attack . Indeed the bear launched another attack on last Monday by crashing through below the lower Bollinger Band with the Stochastic turning negative again. And despite overnight Dow Jones gains was not able to reverse the local market though they almost opened gap up daily but eventually unable to hold on to the gains. But neither did it go far down except on Monday. Place stop at 1447 to protect the shorts trade.

Both the MACD, DMI and Stochastic have turned negative, prices stay below the lower band. All these are confirming the re-emergence of the bear power. What is important is that the ADX has started to rise again, which may be pointing at a possible new trend for the bears.

Though  the Stochastic has gone into the much wrongly interpreted "oversold" area, but since the current "ruler of the day" is a strong ADX (43's) that has the lordship over the market situation, so I would pay more attention to the MACD rather than the Stochastic. But at this moment, there could be an interesting item developing, I think we may be having a possible double bottoms formation in this market. But of course we need to watch it to see whether this can hold in the coming week. If it can hold, then we may see a short term technical rebound. I arrive to this reading as there is some minor subtle divergence at the MACD and DMI.


 
The weekly chart remains firmly bearish as the MACD, Stochastic and DMI remain negative and prices stay below the lower Bollinger Band. The ADX continues to rise and now is healthily above its 20's signal line which is confirming a strong trend. With the presence of a bearish divergence, I expect a minimum retracement of 50% of its last bull rally and see FKLI goes back to 1,200's. So the big picture remains bearish though we may see some short term rebounds in the daily chart in between.

Meanwhile the crisis at the Euroland continues to play out and last week another so called "solution" was happily received by the stock markets. You should NOT be conned by all these make believe fantasy, their crisis is definitely not over yet. The next bomb may be coming from Italy and Spain and Portugal making another comeback to the front stage, and that one could just be the one bringing down the EU financial alliance - the question you should ask now is how long will Germany and other stronger members continue to pay their saviour role ?

As I have been advocated here:- forget all those so called blue chips, anti-gravity , GLCs stocks now and hold cash. There will be plenty of great investment opportunities down the road. 




Thursday, September 15, 2011

人民幣快將取代美元 -  
華文媒介樂此不疲的喜不自勝狀經常作 鼓吹並作的言文


在國際市場上,人民幣雖然微不足道,但過去數年人民幣已邁開大步向前走,是無可置疑的;可是,國家的外滙政策令 國際上利用人民幣受到太多限制(對目前以安定為主軸的中國來說,這是正確的做法),因此在國際市場上並不活躍、少人利用,其欲成為國際通貨, 尚有一段長路要走。

雖然西方媒體認為人民幣快將取代美元是「人所共知的謬論」(patent nonsense),但樂此不疲的華文媒介,仍經常可見作 這種鼓吹並作喜不自勝狀的言文,這是非常危險的。歷史上數次 「貨幣交替」,都有軍事為後盾,僅憑經濟力量,是無法攀登主導地位的。

美國的《外交政策》(foreignpolicy.com)九月二日發表J. Traub題為〈遠在天邊近在眼前—中美開戰的預期可能成真?〉(Over the Horizon - Is worry about war with China a self-fulfilling prophecy?)的短文,述說當前美國的中國政策,已和五六年前有重大改變。中國雖然是「和平崛起」,但種種迹象顯示中國已不再滿足於「維持現狀」, 其「軍事影響」已威脅美國亞洲盟友的安全和「領土完整」,不僅美國保護這些國家的「誓言」已受質疑,亦影響到美國的環球戰略和「霸主」地位。 近年中國在武器研發上有重大突破,令她在太空以至亞洲區向來受美國保護的海空領域有與美國一較雄長的架勢。一位軍事評論家在這一期的《外交政 策》上寫道,美國「未來的軍事衝突不在中東沙漠而在南中國海海域」!

為了抗衡中國的「軍事崛起」,美國保守政客主張保持遠東六萬常規軍及太平洋艦隊的規模不變,軍費則應維持在國民毛產值百分之四的水平—即在現 年度軍費五千三百億上加七百億—與此同時要致力發展「新世代」的多種武器……。美國雖然無法從伊拉克和阿富汗全身而退,但今後的軍事布防重心 從中東轉移至亞洲特別是南中國海一帶,已成定局。

中國當然不怕美國,但美國不是紙老虎,
是獸性(不理性)一逗即發的老虎,其遠東盟友安全受威 脅以至美元金融市場稱王稱霸為所欲為的地位一旦受正面挑戰,一場後果不堪設想的戰爭便會爆發!
 
 

Wednesday, September 14, 2011

A Love Story :- When Ahmadinejad Calls Assad




President Ahmadinejad Asks Syrian Leader to Show Some Compassion
You know how you know you're probably a miserable, murderous, Middle East tyrant?

 When Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad calls you up and says, "Bashie? Mahmoud here. Oh, good, good. Azam and the kids are terrific! Thanks for asking. Listen, Bash, I absolutely adore your work. You know that. Great stuff. There's no one who can brutally put down an uprising like you can. Oh, stop, you flatter me. That? That was barely an uprising! That was, like, two undergrads with a Tweeter machine and a little tear gas. No, but you. You're the man. You can't see this, but I'm high-fiving you right now! Ha ha ha! No, but listen hear me out for a second here. Maybe you should think about turning down the dial a bit on this whole 'mass-murdering of your own people' thing? What? No! Not too much! Never too much. But you know how the Westerners are. They're all 'barbaric' this, 'unarmed protesters mowed down with gunboats' that. Oh crap! I'm late for my two o'clock gay hanging. Can we pick this up tomorrow? You got it. Send my love to Asma. Saw the Vogue spread. Fabulous."

Yeah. That's how you know you're probably a miserable, murderous, Middle East tyrant
Shocking News !!!! Western Australia To Declare Independence From Australia ?

Western Australia Talks Secession over Canberra’s Energy Policies


It’s marginal, economically backward states that fragment, like Yugoslavia and Sudan, right?

Usually – but an extraordinary situation is developing in energy-rich Western Australia, where Canberra’s policies have begun fuelling talk of secession.

Call it an east-west divide, pitting population-rich eastern Australia’s cities against resource-rich Western Australia, where resentment is rising over the upcoming imposition of the Mineral Resource Rent Tax (MRRT) and the state’s perception of poor treatment by Canberra’s bureaucrats.

Aside from fuelling resentment amongst mining companies, a recent poll on Western Australia Today's website found 63 percent of the 7,585 respondents stating that Western Australia should consider secession.

So, is this merely a case of consuming too many cases of Fosters, or something more serious? Like Texas, where legislators grumble about leaving the Union, secessionist talk has been a frequent staple of Western Australia's politics since the early 19th century.

Like Hawaiian discussions of secession, Western Australia has repeatedly seen the idea surface, appearing in the media and even being broached in a 1933 state referendum.

Far from being an idea grumbled about in taverns, secessionist ideas have political support including from Western Australia’s Minister for Mines and Petroleum, Norman Moore, one of Western Australia’s government's most senior members in the State's Upper House.

 Speaking bluntly, Moore said that the proposed MRRT had caused "rumblings of secession - everywhere you go these days, people are now talking about it. We should try and fix the federation, but in the event it can't be fixed, and I suspect it can't be, then states like Western Australia should give some thought to going it alone. The constitution has changed dramatically to the point where the Federal Government is very much in control of virtually every lever that goes on in the economy in Australia. The bottom line is Western Australia is being put in a position where its industries are being penalized because they are successful.

When you start doing that people take their successful industries somewhere else and to suggest we are the only place in the world with mineral resources is naïve. My view is we should go back to what the original foundation of the constitution provided for and that the states indeed have some responsibility. The concern we have here obviously is that the mining industry and the LNG industry especially are high emitting, and energy intensive and so they'll be hit with this on top of the mining tax. The Gillard government's coming along saying 'well you make all this money, you can pay extra tax,' but they already pay royalties to the states, and that's a charge that we levy on companies to access our minerals.

Contrary to the views of the Prime Minister, the minerals actually belong to the state of Western Australia, and all the other states, with respect to their minerals. So they pay royalties to the states, and I think our revenue last year was about $4 billion. "Why separate the mining industry from the rest just because it's going through a good time?"

According to Moore, of the $38 billion expected to be produced from the MRRT, 65 percent will come from companies operating in Western Australia.

Cazaly Resources managing director Clive Jones strongly supported Moore’s position stating that any constitutional legal challenge against the tax would have strong support from other Western Australia resources companies, "absolutely - 100 per cent. We are considerably less than happy. However, although the concept of secession is attractive it is not a realistic option as all States need to agree - which is very unlikely given we're their breadbasket these days. Under the proposed tax liens of the MRRT and its potential impact on Cazaly Resources' profitability Jones observed, "Our modeling shows our total tax hike will rise from around 37 percent to 44 to 46 percent. Meaning there will be far less incentive to us to go mining."

Australian Premier Colin Barnett has refused to support Moore’s call for Western Australia to consider seceding from the nation over the carbon tax and Minerals Resource Rent Tax. Barnett said, “Norman Moore is a very good mines minister, however, he has over many years argued the case for Western Australia seceding. Can I make it absolutely clear as Premier, Western Australia has no plan and no intention of ever seceding from Australia."

And if the split occurs, how will the new government defend itself?

Easy said Moore, the new nation could form alliances with China and the U.S. to cover for a lack of an army, navy and air force.

Moore’s defense comments impelled Opposition spokesman Mark McGowan to state that Barnett should take a stronger line and pull Moore into line for his ''disrespectful'' and ''preposterous'' comments, remarking, ''The idea that you have China, the People's Liberation Army, as our defense force is frankly ridiculous and secondly dangerous. 'The third most powerful man in Western Australia talking about those sorts of ideas is a bit disturbing. When you have cabinet ministers saying ridiculous stuff that's offensive and you're the premier, you should take some action.''

While the secessionist concept at present remains precisely that, Canberra should take heed of Western Australia’s discontent and modify both the proposed MRRT and carbon tax schemes accordingly. The stakes are hardly minor, as according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics the total pre-tax profits earned by mining firms operating in Australia was more than $51 billion in 2009-10.

Canberra should not kill the kangaroo that lays the golden eggs.

Monday, September 12, 2011

87 Years Old Doris Day Makes UK Chart History


Doris Day
        pictured in 1955  
Doris Day, pictured here in 1955, has not performed for more than 25 years

1950s sweetheart Doris Day has released a new album, My Heart, at the age of 87. 
 
Doris Day has become the oldest artist to score a UK Top 10 with an album featuring new material, according to the Official Charts Company.

Day's My Heart has gone in at number nine, 62 years after the 87-year-old's debut album was released in the US.

My Heart is a selection of recordings produced by her son, Terry Melcher, before his death in 2004. 

In a career spanning more than 50 years, Day - Hollywood's "girl-next-door" - has appeared in 39 films and recorded 28 other albums.

British singer Vera Lynn topped the UK album chart in August 2009, at the age of 92, but that was with a greatest hits album, We'll Meet Again - The Very Best Of Vera Lynn.

Why France Has Been So Anxious To 
Bail Out Greece