Thailand’s Thaksin plans a return amid rumours of a ‘super-deal’

 Thailand’s Thaksin plans a return amid rumours of a ‘super-deal’ 

    Ahead of the ex-PM’s planned return, the more radical but embattled Move Forward Party is now the kingdom’s dominant pro-democracy force. 

    The Pheu Thai party will be challenged to break from Move Forward, while sustaining as little lasting damage as possible to its pro-democracy brand.

Even in his absence, Thaksin Shinawatra has remained at the fulcrum of politics in Thailand.

The ex-prime minister fled into self-exile in 2008, spending his time in London, Dubai and Hong Kong, as court cases stacked up against him, two years after a coup toppled his elected government.

But in under two weeks, Thaksin – Thailand’s only civilian leader to finish a term and then be re-elected – appears poised to finally return home.

If he does so on August 10 as expected, he will return to a changed country.

His family’s Pheu Thai Party no longer automatically carries the votes of the rural and urban poor. Instead, the more radical Move Forward Party has emerged as the kingdom’s dominant pro-democracy force, after the public warmed to its messages on structural reforms and economic and social equality.

Still, Pheu Thai is trying to form a government after election-winning Move Forward was blocked from power.

Experts say Thaksin, aged 74 and facing 10 years in jail, is unlikely to serve much – if any – jail time, speculating that the billionaire who was once the bane of the establishment may have made a “super-deal” to return with his one-time conservative enemies.

That is likely to see Move Forward shunted into opposition, despite winning the May election.

Whatever political machinations lie ahead, Thaksin’s presence will add a headline-hogging, unpredictable new dynamic to an already complicated situation.

What happens next?

After years of false starts, Thaksin’s return seems real.

“Dad is coming back on August 10,” Thaksin’s youngest daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, said in a social media post this week, giving the firmest confirmation yet to his return.

For his part, Thaksin on Friday tweeted a link to a TikTok video by Thai indie rocker Sek Loso, promising to perform on stage together once he returns.

He is due to land at Bangkok’s Don Mueng airport, where a horde of media and political supporters are likely to seek to greet the most significant person in recent Thai political history. The tycoon would be subject to the judicial process upon his return, deputy national police chief Surachate Hakparn said.

“The police will conduct their duties normally when the plane lands. He will have to go to court and listen to what they decide,” Surachate said.

The court is expected to order him to go straight to jail.

Thaksin faces 10 years in prison for three convictions made in absentia, including abuse of power and corruption, which he says were all politically motivated.

He is entitled to seek detention in medical facilities as an elderly inmate, and then can petition for a royal pardon from Thai King Maha Vajiralonkorn, caretaker Deputy Prime Minister Wissanu Krea-ngam said. Few expect Thaksin to serve any real jail time – and certainly not in general population with other inmates. A pardon remains his quickest route from detention.

What are the risks?

Thaksin nostalgia runs deep in the upcountry ‘Red Shirt’ rural heartlands, where he is adored for his economic policies that for the first time raised rural incomes and addressed the changing aspirations of the poor. Their votes powered him to two election wins in 2001 and then 2005, which rattled the Bangkok establishment.

But he is also reviled by conservatives. Many prominent politicians have spent two decades earning their reputations by vilifying him and his family for toxifying Thai politics and society with corruption and nepotism.

In the hothouse of Thai politics, where grudges, recriminations and violence stalk the scene, there are inevitable security risks for a high-profile, yet divisive, figure.

In her Instagram post, his daughter Paetongtarn, who is assuming the family political mantel at the top of Pheu Thai, conceded to worries over his “safety” but respected her father’s decision to come back.

What is the political impact?

Move Forward’s emergence as the nation’s biggest party is the most serious challenge to the conservative establishment since Thaksin’s breakout election in 2001.

Experts say Move Forward’s calls to de-monopolise the economy and reform the royal defamation law, which shields the monarchy from criticism, are unprecedented and have rattled the ‘old powers’ of the generals, business elite and palace who hold the tethers on Thai democracy.

Meanwhile, the party’s young supporters have little memory of – and even less deference to – Thaksin, or the phalanx of former generals and ageing politicos who head the conservative parties and populate the unelected Senate.

Pheu Thai wanted a landslide of 270-300 lower house seats but were pushed into second place with just 141 seats, losing many of their upcountry vote banks to Move Forward.

The party’s diluted power may make it a more palatable partner in a conservative alliance, which then freezes Move Forward into opposition.

Pheu Thai’s conundrum is finding a way to break from Move Forward while sustaining as little lasting damage as possible to its pro-democracy brand.

A rumoured “super-deal” in Hong Kong this week between Thaksin, Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit – the founder of the political movement which Move Forward has taken on – as well as Anutin Charnvirakul, who leads the third-placed Bhumjaithai Party, could hold the keys to government.

The deal allegedly allows for Thaksin’s return and for Pheu Thai to join a coalition including Bhumjaithai and even the former military-aligned governing party of Phalang Pracharat, while Move Forward would slip into opposition.

Anutin, who has described Thaksin as his mentor, is one of the few remaining prime ministerial candidates who can contest future parliamentary votes for the role – as is Pheu Thai’s Srettha Thavisin, a property tycoon, and Thaksin’s daughter Paetongtarn.

A joint session of parliament is due to hold another round of voting on August 4, three weeks after Pita Limjaroenrat of Move Forward was blocked by the military-appointed Senate from becoming Thailand’s next prime minister. Until then, Thailand remains without a political leader or a new government, while the party that won the most votes (14 million for Move Forward) appears least likely to be in power.