The End Of Gold Myth ?
Gold plunged over 3 percent yesterday after the release of FOMC
minutes, which revealed that several members of the Fed wanted to
end QE3 by the end of 2013.
Now, Dennis Gartman, publisher of The Gartman Letter, writes that
gold bugs who have operated on the thesis that the Fed has lost
control of money supply are in tatters.
He also says the only hope for them is that the FOMC of 2013 will
be more dovish than last year's FOMC:
"Commodity prices are falling and in some instances are falling
quite sharply. Clearly that is the case with gold, for the minutes
of the FOMC’s last meeting have shaken the hopes of the most
violent “Gold Bugs” malevolently, and have shaken our gold
position rather materially. We are, however, rather nicely
insulated from the real damage being done to the simplistic gold
bugs who have owned and who still own gold predicated upon their
thesis that the Fed has lost control of the money supply. That
thesis is now in tatters... or at least has been very badly torn
in the past twenty four hours... following the single sentence
from the Fed’s minutes noted at length above.
…Yesterday’s plunge has indeed left its mark and gold buyers in US
dollar terms are going to have to prove the very merit of their
case... and soon. Further, they are going to have to do so with
margin clerks looking over their shoulders today. That is hardly
the time to make one’s best case.
The game has changed for gold if we are to believe the minutes of
the FOMC meeting, and at the moment we’ve no choice but to believe
them. The only hope for the gold/US$ bulls is that the newly
constituted FOMC shall be more dovish than was the FOMC as
constituted last year. That case can be made, but only at the
margin. We shall accept the FOMC of ’13 as more dovish than was
that of ’12, but only marginally so; not materially so."
Gartman owns gold in euro and yen terms. Gold is off 1.4 percent
today.
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