毛泽东 - “说我无非是吃喝嫖赌，孙中山能够，为什么我不能够？”

让我看看主席的小弟弟bah
全民禁欲与毛泽东的滥欲
中共党史载，彭德怀曾斥责毛泽东“后宫佳丽、粉黛三千”。

在中南海成立文工团的目的是“选妃”。一位中南海文工团的女琴师说：毛泽东没品味， 一见着漂亮女人就拉上床，他的任何办公地都有“密室”，且对女性从来不尊重，包括自己的妻子，是个见异思迁的淫君……。杨开慧带着三个儿子为他身陷囹圄的时候，他却在井冈山上与贺子珍偷欢；长征逃亡途中，负伤 十七处的贺子珍仍怀孕三次。而贺子珍赴苏联养病期间，他又与江青勾搭。同江青婚后又一直“暗渡陈仓”。 晚年笃信道家“房中术”，痴迷于“采阴补阳”来延年益寿。他蹂躏过的知名美女超百、不名佳人无数，佳丽品种像他的食谱一样丰富，直到临死也本 性如故。最后的“通房大丫头”张玉凤至今享受省部级待遇。与此同时，众多老百姓却因鸡毛蒜皮的“作风问题”下了地狱。
事实证明，毛泽东不但是谎言大师，还是大“剽客”与大“嫖客”。早在延安时期就硬着颈项：“说 我无非是吃喝嫖赌，孙中山能够，为什么我不能够？”（《炎黄春秋》二○○九年第三期，《杨尚昆一 九八六年谈张闻天与毛泽东》）
从江西刚到延安的毛泽东与贺子珍
贺子珍的魅力哪比得上在上海演过电影做过封面女郎的江青

Why The Coming Few Years Could See A Brutal Collapse For Gold


Earlier this week, Goldman Sachs came out with a note that said by 2018, gold would likely fall to $1200.

A lot of people chuckled at the idea of a 2018 outlook, as they wondered what, exactly was the point of such a call.

Indeed, anyone holding gold right now might be more interested in a note from the bank that came out later in the week which said gold might spike in the coming weeks, thanks to debt ceiling/fiscal cliff fears.

But for those interested in the actual dynamics of how gold behaves, the 2018 call was actually extremely important.

Goldman's key line in its analysis was: "Assuming a linear increase in US real rates back to 2.0% by 2018, as proxied by the 10-year US TIPS yield, we expect that gold prices will continue to trend lower over the coming five years and introduce our long-term gold price of $1,200/oz from 2018 forward."

As Eddy Elfenbein has done a great job showing, the primary driver of gold is low real interest rates. When real interest rates are very low or negative (as they have been in the US) gold rises. When the opposite is true, gold falls.

Now, finally, people are talking about the eventual return to rate normalization, and an increase in real interest rates in the US. The US economy isn't totally out of the woods, but it's looking more normal all the time. And that normalization has the potential to be bad news.

Conman As Economist Or 

Economists As Conman ?

The fraudster who fooled a whole nation: Portuguese media pundit exposed as conman

As an ex-presidential consultant, a former adviser to the World Bank, a financial researcher for the United Nations and a professor in the US, Artur Baptista da Silva's outspoken attacks on Portugal's austerity cuts made the bespectacled 61-year-old one of the country's leading media pundits last year.
The only problem was that Mr Baptista da Silva is none of the above. He turned out to be a convicted forger with fake credentials and, following his spectacular hoodwinking of Portuguese society, he could soon face fraud charges.
Mr Baptista da Silva's conversion into the latest must-interview figure on the media circuit began when he turned up last April at Lisbon's main philanthropic institution, the Academia do Bacalhau, with a large supply of business cards – which, it later turned out, bore false credentials – and an impressive-sounding dissertation entitled Growth, Inequality and Poverty. Looking Beyond Averages which, it also transpired, was "borrowed" from its writer, a World Bank employee, via the internet.
At the time, Mr Baptista da Silva also claimed to be a social economics professor at Milton College – a private university in Wisconsin, US, which actually closed in 1982 – and to be masterminding a UN research project into the effects of the recession on southern European countries. He even, some reports say, tried to pass himself off as a former adviser to Portugal's President, Joaio Sampaio, and the World Bank.
Blessed with such an impressive CV, Mr Baptista's subsequent criticisms of the Lisbon government's far-reaching austerity cuts, as well as dire warnings that the UN planned to take action against it, struck a deep chord with its financially beleaguered population.
According to the Spanish newspaper El País, his powerfully delivered comments at a debate at the International Club, a prestigious Lisbon cultural and social organisation last month, were greeted with thunderous applause and a part-standing ovation.
Then, in a double page interview in the weekly newspaper Expresso in mid-December, Mr Baptista da Silva continued to denounce the government's policies. That was followed by an interview for the radio station TSF, appearances in high-profile television debates and well-publicised meetings with trade union leaders to advise them on economic policies.
Yet in the country's jails, Mr Baptista da Silva's sudden appearance among the intellectual elite caused amazement among his former cellmates. A colleague from his old school, lawyer Ricardo Sa Fernandes, who had come across Mr Baptista da Silva behind bars by chance when visiting one of his clients, told Visao magazine that when he saw the convicted fraudster on TV he was "staggered by his ability to put his past life behind him".
Mr Baptista da Silva's comeuppance began when the UN confirmed to a Portuguese TV station last month that he did not work for the organisation, not even as a volunteer, as he later alleged. Further media investigations uncovered his prison record and fake university titles, though Mr Baptista da Silva's claims to have studied economics have not been categorically disproven.
After sending out a press release blasting his former journalist friends and colleagues for what he called a "witch-hunt", Mr Baptista da Silva has now disappeared completely from public life, and there are reports he is under investigation for fraud charges by the police.
Meanwhile, the media's search for an equally articulate and charismatic replacement critic of the government's economic policies – although perhaps not one with such overwhelmingly impressive academic credentials – continues apace.

童言无忌 ?

Google主 席Eric Schmidt女兒的北韓遊記：一群「雕像」用電腦？



Sophie Schmidt口中的「雕像」用電腦

早前Google主席Eric Schmidt訪問北韓，他日前透過自己的Google+戶口，公開此行的見聞，以及北韓互聯網發展狀況，大體上也是說北韓有其「內聯網絡」，能對外網際 網絡受嚴密監控，認為北韓要發展必須開放互聯網等老生常談。

反而同行的Eric Schmidt女兒、只有19歲的Sophie Schmidt，她寫的北韓見聞卻有趣得多，她那篇題為「It might not get weirder than this（沒有地方較這兒更怪誕）」的文章，除了以19歲美國女孩角度，諷刺北韓的監控、為外國訪客特別建造、用來粉飾的酒店、現代化建築物外，當中提及 她參觀金日成綜合大學e-Library時，那90名正在「上課」的學生，大部份人竟然是「齋睇」著電腦畫面，連滑鼠、鍵盤也不按一 下！Sophie Schmidt形容他們根本是「雕像」！

「Looks great, right? All this activity, all those monitors. Probably 90 desks in the room, all manned, with an identical scene one floor up.
One problem: No one was actually doing anything. A few scrolled or clicked, but the rest just stared. More disturbing: when our group walked in--a noisy bunch, with media in tow--not one of them looked up from their desks. Not a head turn, no eye contact, no reaction to stimuli. They might as well have been figurines. 」

有興趣看Sophie Schmidt的全文，可到她的博客細 閱。

History Of Internet

凤凰卫视欣赏阮次山

在大陆当权者的心目中， 军方背景的刘长乐是极端左倾的毛派份子，与孔庆东、司马南、张宏良等人相同，是想复辟毛江时代的无产阶级专政。

刘长乐的凤凰卫视在中共宣传部门与侨办心目中，是一个对台湾统战最有效的工具，刘花最少的钱不但叫台湾的传媒人折腰，而且跟 着中共的宣传口径向海外喊话。最具体的例证是：曾经在台湾中国广播公司工作的国民党人阮次山，就在刘长乐调教下成为最佳的传 声筒，他站在共产党立场向国民党恐吓，并对国民党人指指点点，例如，关于美国军售台湾，阮次山就批「马政府居然敢向党和人民 挑战，不自量力。我们真要向你们动武，那一点点美国武器根本起不了作用」，谈话的口气十足中共头目。

阮次山的荒唐还不止此，伦敦奥运期英国商人为了拉拢台湾游客的生意，在伦敦摄政街的商场前挂出中华民国国旗，中共立即提出严 重抗议，并迫商家卸下青天白日满地红的国旗，改悬奥运所用的中华台北奥委会旗，没有想到反而刺激了当地华侨及台湾的留学生。 他们组织了好几百人上街头，高举中华民国旗，并高呼「台湾，台湾」，甚至把台湾的传奇人物「台湾三太子」抬出来助阵，引起西 方媒体注意，并知道中共把政治融入奥运的恶毒居心。

类似这种弄巧反拙的表现，凤凰卫视的阮次山居然大肆抨击并形容「中共的作为正确，站在大是大非面前，中共的做法是正确的!」 甚麽是大是大非?在阮次山眼中那是中共的恶行，一个拿着美国护照的国民党人，说起话来像中共干部军头，令人齿冷，因此网上有 人批阮次山是：查护照是美国人，听口音是台湾人，读姓氏是越南人，看样子是日本人，究论点原来是共产党人。

中国早年被北方来的胡人侵犯，许多讨好敌人的汉人，学得一口胡语，被胡人派他站在城头向汉人的军民喊话，大骂汉人不自量力， 居然敢对抗胡人大军，对这类汉人，古人有一句成语是：汉人学得胡儿语，站在城头骂汉人，这种人就是一般人说的「汉奸」!

日本侵华时，这类汉奸涌现，他们横行在中国大地，为日寇带路去「清乡」，强姦妇女，抓抗日志士，逮捕重庆份子，其积极超过日 本官兵，演变到后来，做过中华民国总统与国民党主席的李登辉，居然以二十二岁以前是日本人为荣，高调宣佈钓鱼岛是日本领土 的，并说中华民国政府是外来政权，其情形与台湾文化流氓李敖公开在电视台上指引中共赤军解放台湾的方法，这都是典型的汉人中 的姦巧之徒。

阮次山的表现，连大陆的网民也很不以为然，他们在网上说，阮次山的言论比汉奸都不如，但凤凰的刘长乐欣赏他，把他说成是电视 台的首席政治评论员!

Obama Urged to Resign Over Beyoncé Scandal

WASHINGTON  – A rising chorus of congressional Republicans are calling on President Obama to acknowledge that the pop singer Beyoncé lip-synched during his inaugural festivities on Monday and resign from office, effective immediately.

“By lip-synching the national anthem, Beyoncé has cast a dark cloud over the President’s second term,” said Sen. Rand Paul (R-Kentucky).  “The only way President Obama can remove that cloud is by resigning from office at once.”

While many in the media have blamed Beyoncé for the lip-synching controversy, Mr. Paul said, “We must remember that this happened on President Obama’s watch.”

Mr. Paul said that the White House’s refusal to comment on the Beyoncé crisis “only serves the argument that this President has something to hide.”

“If Beyoncé lip-synched the national anthem, how do we know President Obama didn’t lip-sync his oath of office?” he said. “If that’s the case, he’s not legally President. But just to be on the safe side, he should resign anyway.”

Mr. Paul also blasted Secretary of State Hillary Clinton for her testimony on Benghazi before the Senate today: “Her tactic of answering each and every question we asked her didn’t fool anyone.”

Mrs. Obama Gave The Republicans The "Go Fuck Yourself" Look

President Barack Obama's inauguration featured patriotism, hope and shaaaaade!

First lady Michelle Obama was serving up the latter when she delivered this epic eye roll directed at Speaker of the House John Boehner (as originally pointed out on Tumblr), who tapped her on the back. Mr. Boehner, it's not that you're blocking her husband's agenda in Congress, but can't you see she's trying to eat?! You'd think the seating arrangements at this fancy lunch would give the first lady a moment of peace, but no.

That said, we always did prefer our politics with a side of reality. Z-snaps to the FLOTUS!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=OXNvNbMKLyM

Hong Kong Government Shielding Mainland Politicians Corruptions

香 港拟立法限制获取董事身份信息

香港一位知名企业治理活动人士对一项政府计划提出了批评。该计划将允许企业在香港公司注册网站上隐藏董事的身份证信息。

香港提议修改公司法，阻止公众获得董事的家庭住址以及政府签发的完整身份证号码，这将让投资者 更难对公司进行尽职调查。

卡特彼勒(Caterpillar)上周宣布，发现其在去年收购的一家在香港上市的中国矿业设备集团存在会计不当行为，这让这场争论成为公众 关注的焦点。

股东维权人士戴维•韦布(David Webb)认为政府起草的保护个人隐私的提议“令人困惑”。

韦布表示，他对阻止公众获得董事完整身份证号码的政府提议感到“不安”，但不认同普 遍的猜测，即政府此举是对彭博社(Bloomberg)和《纽约时报》(New York Times)去年有关中国高层领导人亲属财富的有争议报道的回应。他称，计划中的修改不是“阴谋的一部分，它只是不称职”。

保护公司董事隐私的提议源于2010年香港启动的一项公众咨询。作为这一过程的一部分，香港律师会(Law Society)提交了一份建议书，表示身份证号码“应该被完整记录和披露，（因为）重名的人并不罕见”。

该计划还受到香港记者协会(Journalists Association)的抨击。中 国内地居民在香港成立壳公司已变得非常普遍，记者在调查中国领导人亲属的财富时，往往利用公司注册信息来确认他们在香港的资产。

周三，香港高等法院判处一位内地男子十年零六个月监禁，罪名是该名男子受命使用自己的姓名以及在香港注册的公司开立银行账户，这起洗钱案的涉 案金额高达130亿港元（合17亿美元）。

香港政务司司长林郑月娥(Carrie Lam)上周表示，香港政府将继续就拟议立法倾听公众意见。

36F豪乳艳星任中国政协委员

香港前艳星任政协委员 - 彭丹演绎另类中国梦

彭丹彻底“漂白”了。离开香港后，彭丹在北京开了影视公司，专注“主旋律”题材的电视剧创作。彭丹和成龙一样，相信“中国正处在历史上最好的 时候”。陆媒：他们能加入政协，是谁推荐的?他们参政议政的权力到底是谁赋予的?


导读：彭丹比星爷更有“看头”。有人纠结彭丹过去的“身份”，认为让她参政议政，不严肃，不合适。这是一种偏见，但在这个“誓死捍卫你说话的 权利”的时代，我们或许更应该纠结以下问题：他们能加入政协，是谁推荐的?他们参政议政的权力到底是谁赋予的?

彭丹最火的时候当属上世纪九十年代。和狄娜、叶玉卿这样的“女神”不同，彭丹走的是“性感傻大姐”路线，她希望人们关注她傲人的身材之余，能 留意一下她的演技。事实上，她也做到了。很多年后，提起彭丹，更多人想到的是她在王晶电影里面那个让人发笑的“一字马”桥段。



而更励志的是，彭丹彻底“漂白”了。离开香港后，彭丹在北京开了影视公司，专注“主旋律”题材的电视剧创作。彭丹和成龙一样，相信“中国正处 在历史上最好的时候”，而她比后者更懂政治，最重要的是，她更愿意在自己擅长的领域发光发热。她甚至比周星驰更有看头，和星爷相比，她“逆 袭”的程度更甚之，活脱就是“中国梦”的践行者。

有人纠结彭丹过去的“身份”，认为让她参政议政，不严肃，不合适。这是一种偏见，但 在这个“誓死捍卫你说话的权利”的时代，我们或许更应该纠结以下问题：他们能加入政协，是谁推荐的?他们参政议政的权力到底是谁赋予的?

新闻背景：

1月22日，政协甘肃省第十一届委员会第一次会议在兰州开幕。香港女星彭丹作为政协委员参加当天的会议。在接受记者采访时彭丹表示，“希望能 来甘肃做些投资，多拍一些甘肃题材的影视剧作品，尤其是主旋律的作品。”

彭丹告诉记者，她刚拍完一个主旋律电影《南泥湾》，她本人集制片人、导演、主演于一身。“我觉得现在的年轻人应该多看主旋律的作品，这样就可 以体会到当年革命先辈的不容易。”

之前在甘肃拍过多部影视剧，比如说大家比较熟悉的电视剧《最后的骑兵》就是在甘肃拍的。当时彭丹是作为女主角在甘肃进行长时间的拍摄工作，所 以对甘肃朴实、真诚、厚道的民风深有体会。“每次到甘肃来就特别亲切。尤其这一次来，觉得甘肃的变化特别大，兰州的变化也特别大。”彭丹希望 能来甘肃做些投资，能针对一些项目，务实地做出来。“譬如投资影视城和文化产业之类的，希望能多拍一些甘肃题材的影视剧，尤其是主旋律的作 品。”



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36F豪乳艳星彭丹参与政协昔日情色片剧照曝光

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彭丹(左)昔日激情照

政协甘肃省第十一届委员会第一次会议在兰州开幕。香港前艳星彭丹作为政协委员参加当天的会议。接受采访时彭丹表示，“希望能来甘肃做些投资， 多拍一些甘肃题材的影视剧作品，尤其是主旋律的作品。”

关于彭丹，人们了解得最多的都是她的一副骄人魔鬼身材。95年因拒绝美国花花公子杂志25万美金邀请拍裸照的新闻，震动华人演艺界，随后被黄 百鸣赏识，应邀到香港拍摄《狼吻夜惊魂》，从此踏足香港娱乐圈。

她曾连获美国的华裔小姐、中国小姐、亚裔小姐三项冠军，她从芭蕾舞的足尖起步，一旋身便把美丽挥洒于国际舞台、银幕和荧屏……

初到香港的彭丹，便以性感形象示人，频频为多本杂志拍摄性感照片，以打响知名度，一夜之间，全港都对这位几乎可以和前波霸叶子楣媲美的艳女子 产生了高度的关注，不过关注的视线都是放在她的一双豪乳上。随后，一向对娱乐触觉最敏锐的王晶也看准了彭丹的骄人身材，也邀请彭丹参与他的 《赌圣2街头赌圣》的拍摄，在片中饰演一个妖艳的泰国女赌后，彭丹片中的造型也相当惹火性感，影片推出后，票房过千万，从此之后，更加立定彭 丹要走性感路线的决心。之后彭丹陆陆续续地参与了多部影片的演出，片中不乏大胆性感演出。1998年，彭丹清楚地认识到港人已经厌倦了她的性 感路线，已经没有办法在香港演艺圈立足了，她就立刻密谋回大陆发展。此后彭丹的演艺重心都在大陆市场，不过彭丹也偶尔会回香港拍摄一些DV影 片和上曾志伟的《奖门人》之类的节目争取曝光率，希望香港的观众不要忘了她。1999年之后彭丹在大陆的发展，比起她在香港发展那段日子更为 顺利。

如今的彭丹为了塑造自己的正面形象，主要在影视作品中扮演共产党员、解放军战士和武警官兵等人物，又在推动慈善公益事业、加强国际间文化艺术 交流方面做出了相当的贡献，得到了政府和社会各界的认可。也有网友指出，彭丹现在的容貌发生较大改变，被质疑可能整容。

Why Argentina Needs A New War With UK

The One Thing Holding Argentina Together Seems To Be Falling Apart



Argentina is in trouble. The IMF is deciding whether or not to punish the country for allegedly manipulating inflation statistics, and hedge fund managers in New York City are suing the country for over a $1 billion in unpaid sovereign debt.

The latter issue has gotten so bad that President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner has leased a jet to go on a world tour because her regime fears that the state jet could be impounded by angry creditors.

They did, after all, manage to impound an Argentine naval vessel last year.

So in all this chaos, how does the country roll along? Argentina's former Central Bank Chief, Martin Redrado explained it quite simply to the FT last November:

“There’s a very simple answer,” says Martín Redrado, a former central bank chief. “It depends on the [soya] crop. Given that international prices are strong and will continue to be . . . you can muddle along. But with low growth and high inflation.”

Now it looks that Argentina could lose even that. Weather conditions are working against the country's cash crop. This summer it took a big hit due to a lack of rain, this fall it suffered from too much. This intense rain (and in some cases flooding) has lead to delays in planting.

Here's what Morgan Stanley had to say about it:

The highest Oct-Nov rainfall totals in over 30 years across Argentina’s corn and soybean regions have led to widespread flooding, preventing farmers from planting their crops in a timely fashion. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reports that by the first week of Dec (comparable to early June in the US), only... 54% of the nation’s soy crop was planted, down from...65%... last year. Even today, farmers are scrambling to plant the last... 4% of the soybean crop — the equivalent of planting in mid-July in the US.

Adding insult to injury, January weather across much of western Argentina — which accounts for roughly 33% of the country’s corn and soybean production — has turned drier than normal, with soil moisture levels in the region now below 20% of capacity and little rain in the forecast through the next week... Our local contacts have also expressed concern that the wet start to the season discouraged adequate root depth, leaving crops more vulnerable than usual to dry weather today.

Morgan Stanley says that the soy crop could still be saved. Soy beans are planted later in the season, so if this dry weather ends the tide could turn. If it doesn't though, things will take a dramatic turn for the worse, hitting the soy crop at just the wrong time.

Gold Won't Save You From Hyperinflation

A new NBER working paper, “The Golden Dilemma”, looks at the investment history — and possible investment future — of gold. Many fascinating nuggets and charts in the research.
Especially interesting is its negative take on gold as a safe-haven hedge against hyperinflation (or even regular inflation, for that matter) or other crises:

We also parse the safe haven argument and come up empty-handed. We examine data on hyperinflations in both major and minor countries and find it is certainly possible for the purchasing power of gold to decline substantially during a highly inflationary period.

When the price of gold is high in one country it is probably high in other countries. Keynes pointed out “that the long run is a misleading guide to current affairs”. Even if gold is a “golden constant” in the long run, it does not have to be a “golden constant” in the short run. Conversely, current affairs are possibly a misleading guide to the long run.

The study offers three pieces of evidence:
1. Gold returns are surprisingly correlated with stock returns, suggesting gold may not be a reliable safe haven asset during periods of financial stress.The below chart shows shows the joint distribution of U.S. stock and gold returns.
Now look at Quadrant 3 where negative equity returns are matched with negative gold returns. “The simple safe haven test states that there should be very few observations in Quadrant 3. In fact, 17% of the monthly stock and gold return observations fall in Quadrant 3.”

2. In time of crisis, you may not be able to get to your gold. The paper points to the  Hoxne Hoard, “the largest collection of Roman gold and silver coins discovered in England.” Apparently it was buried sometime after 400 A.D. by a wealthy family seeking a safe haven during a time of great turmoil in the Roman Empire.
“The fact that the hoard was discovered in 1992 means that the family failed to reclaim its safe haven wealth.” And in terms of  market-value-relative-to-weight ratio, “many precious gems are a more efficient store of flight capital than gold.”
3. The study look at gold and Brazilian inflation from 1980 through. During that period, Brazil was a monetary mess with an average annual inflation rate of about 250% and numerous devaluations. “Yet, using the IMF’s measure of Brazilian inflation, the real price of gold fell by about 70% between 1980 and 2000.
This means, broadly and illustratively speaking, that by the year 2000, an ounce of gold had 30% of its 1980 inflation adjusted purchasing power. … So, if purchasing power declined 70%, was gold a successful Brazilian hyperinflation hedge? It depends on one’s perspective. Compared to an expectation that gold would move one-for-one with the Brazilian price level then gold was not a successful hyperinflation hedge between 1980 and 2000.”

Tree Hugging Hippies Expensive Game 

欧盟碳排放许可市场“崩盘”


全球最大的碳排放市场昨日陷入混乱，排放额度价格在几分钟内暴跌近40%，此前欧洲政界人士否决一项支撑价格的计划。
作为应对全球变暖的“总量管制与交易”计划的关键组成部分，欧盟碳排放交易体系中的排放额度成本在欧洲议会举行相关投票后，降至每吨2.81 欧元的历史低点。
过去4天里，创建8年的欧洲碳排放市场两度跌破最低价格纪录。一些分析师表示，碳排放许可基本上“一文不值”。
作为欧盟气候政策基石，碳排放额度价格暴跌令欧盟尴尬。
德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)的马克•路易斯(Mark Lewis)说：“这确实让前景非常暗淡。”他还补充说，尽管这一投票不具备约束力，但可以看出德国对于要不要暂时撤消排放额度以扶持市场的计划犹豫不 决。
后来碳排放额度价格回升至每吨4.41欧元，但当日依然下降7.5%。
欧盟气候专员康妮·赫泽高(Connie Hedegaard)说：“最近的事件表明，必须采取紧急措施。”她敦促各方支持一项推迟9亿吨排放许可拍卖、同时就更为根本的解决方案展开讨论的提议。
从2011年年中以来，碳排放价格已经下降了85%，原因是疲弱的经济导致供过于求。2005年碳排放交易体系刚刚建立的时候，碳排放许可价 格高达每吨近30欧元。

America Has The Most Sin Kah Generals

He is NOT the first and only, before him there were Patton and MacArthur:-

Unforgettable Quotes From Retiring General James 'Mad Dog' Mattis

Mattis, currently CENTCOM commanding general, is an icon of sorts in the Marine Corps, and arguably the most famous living Marine. He  co-author of the military's counter-insurgency manual (with David Petraeus)

Before heading into Iraq in 2003, all Marines of the 1st Marine Division received a letter from General Mattis. In the letter, he spoke candidly to his troops, telling them that "we will move swiftly and aggressively against those who resist, we will treat others with decency, demonstrating chivalry and soldierly compassion for people who have endured a lifetime under Saddam's oppression."

His quotations:-

"I come in peace. I didn't bring artillery. But I’m pleading with you, with tears in my eyes: If you f* with me, I’ll kill you all."

"I don’t lose any sleep at night over the potential for failure. I cannot even spell the word."

"If in order to kill the enemy you have to kill an innocent, don’t take the shot. Don’t create more enemies than you take out by some immoral act."

"Be polite, be professional, but have a plan to kill everybody you meet."


"You go into Afghanistan, you got guys who slap women around for five years because they didn't wear a veil. You know, guys like that ain't got no manhood left anyway. So it's a hell of a lot of fun to shoot them. Actually it's quite fun to fight them, you know. It's a hell of a hoot. It's fun to shoot some people. I'll be right up there with you. I like brawling."

"We’ve backed off in good faith to try and give you a chance to straighten this problem out. But I am going to beg with you for a minute. I'm going to plead with you, do not cross us. Because if you do, the survivors will write about what we do here for 10,000 years."

"There are some people who think you have to hate them in order to shoot them. I don’t think you do. It’s just business."

"U.S. Marines don't know how to spell the word defeat"

"The most important six inches on the battlefield is between your ears." (haha)

"Find the enemy that wants to end this experiment (in American democracy) and kill every one of them until they’re so sick of the killing that they leave us and our freedoms intact."

"Treachery has existed as long as there’s been warfare, and there’s always been a few people that you couldn’t trust."


"a country that armed Stalin to defeat Hitler can certainly work alongside enemies of al-Qaida to defeat al-Qaida."

"You are part of the world's most feared and trusted force. Engage your brain before you engage your weapon."

"For the mission's sake, for our country's sake, and the sake of the men who carried the Division's colors in past battles — "who fought for life and never lost their nerve" — carry out your mission and keep your honor clean. Demonstrate to the world there is “No Better Friend — No Worse Enemy” than a US Marine."

A Fabulous Map Of Where The World's Commodities Come From

An anonymous commodities trader at Glencore did a Reddit Ask Me Anything where he answered a bunch of questions about what it's like to work at a big commodities trading shop.

It's impossible to verify for sure that he is what he says he is, but if you read the whole thing, which you should, it reads very professional and sophisticated.

Among the things he posted: A very useful/cool map of the commodities that are held and dominated by the world's emerging markets.

It's not real secret, proprietary stuff, but it's enjoyable to look at and ponder.

美国政府禁止中国被“扔鞋”“防火长城”的“设计师”入境 ?

活动人士呼吁美国禁止“防火长城”专家入境

防火 长城干扰、屏蔽不符合官方要求的内容

美国白宫网站出现一份请愿书，呼吁美国政府禁止中国“防火长城”的“设计师”入境。
该项请愿1月25日起发表，目前（伦敦时间27日11时许）已经征集到5,628个签名。

传 方滨兴得癌症网友喜闻乐见

请愿书配发链接，点出三位中国网络审查专家。他们分别是北京邮电大学校长方滨兴、中 科院计算技术研究所专家熊刚以及复旦大学计算机学院的韩伟力。
根据规定，如果请愿在2月24日前征集到10万人签名支持，白宫必须就此发表评论，甚至采取行动。

被扔鞋

在白宫网站发表的请愿书说，从事信息技术工作的人经常需要参与国际间的交流、知识交换等。如果其中一些人为了某个国家、利用自己的 知识和技术阻止其它人使用互联网，所有的国家都应该抵制这类行为。
请愿书接着说，如果这些人—比如说以参加技术会议的名义申请入境美国，“一向 尊重自由”、“负责任”的国家有理由拒绝。
请愿书配发的“点名”链接发表在社交编程网站“GitHub”上。该网站也有大批中国用户。
上星期，GitHub曾在中国被封锁一段时间。
中国互联网审查系统“防火长城”（防火墙）主要用于监控网络通讯，对认为不符合官方要求的内容进行干扰、阻断、屏蔽。
被誉为“中国防火长城之父” 的方滨兴2011年在武汉大学发表演讲期间被“扔鞋”。

Did Israel Went In Bomb Iran Last Week ?

Massive Explosion Reported At Iran's Fordow Nuclear Facility

Reports of an explosion at Iran's Fordow nuclear facility surfaced late last week and The Sunday Times today reports it has independently confirmed the event.

Talk of bombing Iran surfaced in the news late last week when Israel's departing defense minister, Ehud Barak, said his country had written off plans to attack Tehran on its own in the face of a "surgical" plan put forth by the Pentagon.

Reports then surfaced within days that Iran's Fordow nuclear facility was severely damaged and up to 240 workers trapped inside. The explosion was reportedly confined to the plant, suggesting that if it was an airstrike, it doesn't get more "surgical" than that. But this possibility is no more or less likely than sabotage, or an accident, assuming the explosion occured at all.

The Jerusalem Post cites a report by Reza Kahlili who said: “The blast shook facilities within a radius of three miles. Security forces have enforced a no-traffic radius of 15 miles, and the Tehran- Qom highway was shut down for several hours after the blast.”

Iran's official news agency IRNA promptly denied the explosion, claiming the news was simply the result of the Western media fueled "propaganda machine".

That might have ended the story there, but The Times of London's Israel correspondent Sheera Frenkel is confirming the incident through her own independent sources:

An explosion is believed to have damaged Iran’s Fordow nuclear facility, which is being used to enrich uranium, Israeli intelligence officials have told The Times. Sources in Tel Aviv said yesterday that they thought the explosion happened last week. The Israeli Government is investigating reports that it led to extensive structural damage and 200 workers had been trapped inside.

One Israeli official said: “We are still in the preliminary stages of understanding what happened and how significant it is.” He did not know, he added, if the explosion was “sabotage or accident”, and refused to comment on reports that Israeli aircraft were seen near the facility at the time of the explosion.

Frenkel goes on to mention that Tehran has yet to evacuate the surrounding area, but it's unclear if that's because no harmful substances have been released or if the government is trying to avoid panicking local residents.

MOP

The Fordow nuclear enrichment site is buried deep within a mountain and fortified to withstand attack. The only bomb believed capable of striking the facility and inflicting any real damage is the U.S. massive ordnance penetrator (MOP) bomb.

The 30,000 pound piece of ordnance was just certified ready to use by the Pentagon.

The Pentagon’s director of operational testing Michael Gilmore weeks ago confirmed that tests conducted with the heavy GBU-57 (MOP) GPS-guided bomb, thought able to penetrate 200 feet of concrete before exploding, have demonstrated that the redesigned bomb is able to hit and destroy deeply buried targets.

The enhanced MOP features tail-fin modifications to fix bugs identified in testings as well as as a second fuse to destroy hardened underground targets.

Gilmore’s report says that the modifications were tested with five bomb drops from a B-2 stealth bomber on the White Sands Missile Range, conducted between June and October, and two ground tests.

The Pentagon tells us the B-2 is the only platform in the U.S. Air Force inventory able to carry and release its heaviest bomb, even if B-52s were used in previous tests.

The MOP is the bomb experts believe Israel needs if it wants to derail Iran's nuclear program for any length of time. While our Mid-East ally has a fresh supply of GBU-28 bunker busters, they are one-sixth the size and far less capable.

The MOP might actually be the only conventional bomb to best Iran's concrete technology, which is perhaps the most advanced in the world. The country lies on a very active seismic fault, making earthquakes a part of Iranian life. In response, Tehran's concrete industry has developed Ultra-High Performance Concrete (UHPC) doped with quartz and poured under the country's own high-demand blend of international codes.

This is the stuff military planners and field officers think of when they cite the MOP's 200-foot concrete penetration capability; and why the already super-capable Boeing bomb was sent back to the drawing board for additional work in the first place.

KCPO - Bulls May Be Ready But Lack Strength -1/28/2013

 

Last Wednesday price managed to close above the top band with the all the 3 indicators  confirming, so I went in and bought again. But since the ADX remains flat and low at 13's, I would place my stop a little further in order not to get forced out. I am placing the stop at the middle band minus 2/3 points. As the trade progresses upward, then I will raise the stop to the top band minus 2/3 points.

But I would not place too much faith on the current trade simply because the ADX is dead. I also notice the Bollinger Band has begun to squeeze. Another sign that the market will be range bounding.


 

The weekly chart's Stochastic continues to rise , so is the MACD. But the MACD is still below its zero signal line, something I do not think it will lend much power to the bulls yet. The DMI remains negative and the ADX is still flat above the DMI. This is at least telling us the prior bear trend has ended, even though it may just be temporarily. I also take note that the Bollinger Band has begun to tighten which is also happening at the daily chart. Price has not been able to close above the middle band and I will be using this as a trigger to buy in new positions. At the same time, I will be using a breakdown below the bottom band as a signal to sell.

FKLI -  After Big Slam Down - Bears Take A Rest Before Resuming ?- 1/28/2013

 

Though the market "sneaked up" on me on the last Monday's sudden slam down. But by using the technical analysis to read the market, I was already on the right side of the market prior to the slam down. Right now I can either take my profit on last Friday when price went above prior day's high or I can choose to remain with the shorts trade by placing a stop at the bottom band plus 2 points.

The MACD has crossed down its zero signal line which is usually used to determine the bulls/bears zone. The DMI is negative with the ADX rising to 33's which is confirming the current strength. The Stochastic has already crossed up but I would not place too much emphasis on this yet as the ADX is at high level.
The market may just hang around these level before continuing its prior bear trend. The trading plan would be place a new short trade at below the prior day low minus 2 points to re-engage in the trend.


 
The weekly chart has turned bearish as  the MACD, DMI  and Stochastic have all turned negative. The ADX has begun rising though it is still way below the 20's signal line. The Japanese Candlestick has closed below the middle band which is effectively the 20 periods moving average which many traders pay attention to.

The most interesting item here will be the chart has just formed another bearish divergence with the MACD forming a lower peak while prices have been reaching newer highs. This market has already formed 4 higher highs while the MACD had failed to form higher peaks. I am getting increasing excited over this because the MACD is getting nearer to its zero signal line which  if breached, we usually should see a major sell off. I am watching the bottom band intensely as the final support. If that level fails to hold, then I think havoc should happen.

A bearish divergence happens when the bulls have exhausted their strength. With each push to a new high, the indicators are telling us that they are bluffing. When it happens at the weekly chart, it is telling us the prior big cycle has ended. As it is now, this is in line with the usual market psychology of selling down before an election when players are having doubts that the incumbent position looks fragile.

Why Economists / Fundamental Analyst"Experts" Are Idiots

Its absurd that universities still do not formally teach the study of price behavior (technical analysis) and it seems academic finance is way out of touch with real market participants and real risk management.
The study of price behavior is as basic to markets as the study of human behavior is to psychology. It is directly observable. There is price, volume and time. Nothing is hidden or subject to conjecture. There is no implying.
There are really only 3 behaviors – buy, sell and hold and charts are, concretely, the visual depiction of the collective market exhibiting those behaviors.
Patterns repeat themselves. They do not do so perfectly and predictive validity is nowhere near 100% but that’s not the point.
The point is that there are behavioral tendencies which reveal themselves upon disciplined scrutiny and that there already exists a rich written history and archive of those tendencies.
Real market participants gravitate towards technical analysis for good reasons. It provides them an edge.
As mentioned above, behavioral patterns repeat themselves again and again across assets and time frames. These are the tendencies and they provide essential tactical information.
The disciplined employment of price study facilitates risk management. If you are long and wrong, how do you know? How do you plan ahead so that losses do not get away from you?
When a rational participant enters an investment or a trade, he must have risk defined. If he does not, he is placing risk management responsibilities on a future self that might be affected by the loss he is experiencing in the moment and we know that decision making while experiencing a loss is wrought with problems. Defining risk is a multi step process no doubt but an integral part of it must be an informed examination of price.
Further, and in reality, it is not only technically driven investors who incorporate price behavior. Real world fundamentally focused investors use price studies to find entry and exit points. They are already integrating technical analysis into their work.
Academic finance ought to be accelerating price behavior research and challenging students with what we understand, what we don’t understand, the questions that need to be answered and challenges for future study.
Instead, it goes ignored due to biases inherent in academia. Fischer Black summed it up like this:
    In the end, a theory is accepted not because it is confirmed by conventional empirical tests, but because researchers persuade one another that the theory is correct or relevant.
Its a bias on the part of finance academia against technical analysis from a community that is still trying to prop up EMH and has moved so far  from the reality of markets they fail to acknowledge critical tools their students will be using in the future.
The good thing is that it is becoming easier for those learning asset management to find educational material in books and on the internet and so universities are only risking moving themselves further from being relevant much less essential.
This will need to change fast so that future managers will grasp the essentials of technical analysis before heading into a real world filled with real profit and real loss.
If you want to support technical analysis being added to curricula, please connect with the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation. It is their stated goal to make this happen.

大陸人搶光荷蘭奶粉 荷蘭媒體：中國人請回到中國去！



中國買家搶空荷蘭奶粉  荷蘭媒體：中國人請回到中國去！

　　為了買到放心又便宜的奶粉，

中國的爸爸媽媽們把目光投向了乳業大國荷蘭。近日，多家荷蘭超市的奶粉一上架便被搬空。為了保證本地嬰兒能夠通過 零售渠道買到奶粉，各大中型超市都施行了嚴格的限購政策。更有荷蘭媒體直接評論道：“中國人請回到中國去”。
　　為了保證本地嬰兒能夠通過零售渠道買到奶粉，各大中型超市、日用百貨店和藥店普遍都施行了嚴格的限購政策。
　　國人熱捧荷蘭奶粉
　　以往國人到荷蘭旅遊，郁金香球、風車木鞋模型、代爾夫特藍瓷等常常被選作荷蘭特產帶回中國。而預算多些的遊客，則主要選購奢侈品、鑽石名錶 等。不過自 從中國乳品“三氯氫胺風波”和“皮革奶”事件後，國人無論貧富普遍將荷蘭奶粉也列進了購物清單，即使相當一部分人家中並沒有嬰幼兒。
　　以“荷蘭奶粉”為關鍵字搜索谷歌，直接顯示超過522萬個中文搜索結果，包括有關荷蘭對奶源地的嚴格管理保護政策、奶粉生產製造工藝、荷蘭奶 粉類別品 牌，甚至是大篇幅說明如何鑑別真假奶粉的文章。儘管荷蘭奶粉在香港有銷售渠道，且中國與荷蘭相距幾千公里，但依然不能阻攔中國父母追捧荷蘭原產原 裝奶粉的 熱情。
　　雖然荷蘭和中國的貿易往來一直很密切，但荷蘭人萬萬沒有想到，僅僅三四年的時間，中國本土的食品安全危機的影響，居然幾乎讓荷蘭嬰兒斷了“口 糧”。為 了保證本地嬰兒能夠通過零售渠道買到奶粉，各大中型超市、日用百貨店和藥店普遍都施行了嚴格的限購政策，最近已經嚴格到不分種類、每位顧客衹能購 買一桶奶 粉的程度。
　　荷蘭本地嬰兒面臨斷糧
　　兩年前，家住荷蘭東部小鎮的一位年輕爸爸就遭遇了為兒子踏破鐵鞋覓奶粉的經歷。他的孩子剛7個月大，正在吃牛欄二段奶粉。可是近一個星期內， 他每次去 附近的三家大型連鎖超市，貨架上的牛欄二段奶粉都是斷貨。雖然以前也曾經出現過類似斷貨情況，但斷貨這么長時間絕對罕見。這位爸爸找來一家超市工 作人員幫 忙查詢配貨情況，結果發現就連超市的配送中心也斷貨了，而另一家超市的配送中心雖然有貨，卻無法在一兩天內配送。無計可施的他衹好打電話求助周邊 村鎮，終 於在離家15公裡外的另一家超市里買到了奶粉。
　　即便這樣，荷蘭人也沒有將當時斷貨的原因同中國奶粉安全事件聯繫起來，反而覺得可能是因為自己住在小地方。可是這位爸爸的經歷在荷蘭早已不是 個案了。 相當數量的店舖雖然頻繁上貨，但不論奶粉屬於什麼種類，都會在非常短的時間內被搬空，這讓臨時前來購買奶粉的本地爸爸媽媽衹能對著空貨架感嘆。同 時，如此 大量的采購奶粉不得不讓人質疑購買者的目的。
　　雖然奶粉生產企業接到荷蘭父母和超市的投訴，並很快提高了生產量和出貨量，但從實際情況來看，遠遠不能滿足來自零售市場成倍增加的需求，而同 期荷蘭嬰兒總數並沒有對應增加。原來，幾乎所有增加的銷量都來自於幾千公裡外的中國父母們。
　　人海戰術掃貨
　　荷蘭政府為了鼓勵生育降低育兒成本，所以對嬰幼兒奶粉零售是有額外補貼的。零售渠道銷售奶粉多數並不掙錢，主要是為了吸引父母們順道購買其他 利潤較高的嬰幼兒衍生產品。
　　由於歐元匯率長期走低，國內進口品牌奶粉價格又居高不下，外加直郵大部分都逃避了國內進出口手續和稅費，這些因素都直接導致原裝奶粉價格比在 國內購買 進口品牌奶粉便宜，即便算上相對昂貴的快遞費用。而且，國人普遍認為原裝奶粉品質更有保障，於是中國爸爸媽媽不顧辛勞費勁周章，把眼光投向海外。 幾乎每個 在荷蘭的中國人都經歷過被國內的親朋好友詢問是否可以幫忙寄送嬰兒奶粉回國。
　　近幾年來，國內正好趕上新一輪生育高峰，單純靠親朋好友的關係很難滿足日益高漲的需求。嗅覺靈敏的商人們和身居海外的中國移民、留學生，甚至 是經常兩地出差的人員，立刻從原裝奶粉中看到了無窮商機。
　　嬰幼兒奶粉作為基本生活必需品，在荷蘭國內市場零售是有政府補貼的，因此賣給普通消費者的價格甚至比走正規渠道從奶粉生產企業訂貨的價格要低 不少。再 加上奶粉代理權極難獲得，導致即便想正規大批量從奶粉生產企業訂貨也是幾乎不可能的。於是聰明的商人們想出了“人海戰術”，白天開車挨個店舖買奶 粉，晚上 雇人連夜包裝。這樣一來，方圓幾十公里內的所有奶粉都被賣空，也就不足為奇了。
　　史上最嚴限購政策出台
　　限購政策剛施行的時候，店舖工作人員會非常抱歉地向購買奶粉的顧客解釋限購數量。一段時間以後，店舖工作人員也慢慢發現規律，經常大量采購奶 粉的衹有 亞洲面孔的顧客。於是，個別超市除了直接將限購數量定為每位顧客限購一桶外，還專門加派工作人員，衹要看到有亞裔面孔顧客站得離奶粉柜台近些，就 會走上前 來用英文解釋限購政策，並且詢問孩子的情況。
　　不過掃貨大軍絲毫沒有因限購而減少的趨勢，反而不斷有新生力量加入其中，零售商便衹能推出更為嚴格的限購政策。剛過去的新年前後，不堪缺貨困 扰的店舖 將奶粉區的告示變成英荷雙語，英文說明每位顧客的限購數量，荷蘭文的說明要比英文的多一句話，即“由於全荷蘭市場短缺，很遺憾開始緊急執行此限購 政策。原 因是出口中國的兒童食品暴增。”
　　荷蘭各大報章和媒體也紛紛刊登文章報導超市限購嬰兒奶粉的事情，甚至有些文章很不客氣地直接評論：“(中國人)他們不把我們炸回到石器時代的話，也能把我們餓回到石器時代，中國人請回到中國去。”