In Defense of Drones

Amnesty International has just issued a report  that is highly critical of the use of drones by the United States. Its main concern is the great number of civilian casualties that these strikes cause – the so-called collateral damage. There is considerable disagreement among observers about the extent of these casualties. Amnesty International relies on local people, who, as the report discloses, are keen to call attention to them. Whatever the actual number, though, they deserve careful consideration.

One should first of all note that the main reason for these civilian casualties is that terrorists do not observe the most elementary rule of armed conflict – widely recognized and championed by the International Red Cross – the rule of distinction. Under this rule, military forces should make every effort to separate military targets from civilian ones and spare the latter. Why do American drones have difficulty abiding by this? Mainly because the terrorists use private homes and vehicles to wage attacks on us and our allies; locate their snipers in mosques and on the rooftops of schools; and use ambulances to transport bombs. If terrorists abided by the rule of distinction, collateral damage would be minimized overnight. In short, a good part of the moral onus for these casualties rests with the terrorists.

In judging drones, people confuse two issues. Should those strongly suspected of engaging in terrorism be killed? And if yes, by what means? My criteria for answering the first question is the Just War Theory – that they should be killed only after we have exhausted all other means to resolve the conflict, and if they are out to kill innocent people (rather than merely to take our oil, other property, or – often – our pride). By this criteria, those who attacked us on 9/11 – and their ilk – are legitimate targets.

If kill we must, drones are much preferred to missiles, bombers or special forces. Because they can loiter over the target, and because their feed can be reviewed, drones cause much less collateral damage than other means of warfare.

Critics argue that drones violate international law, especially the most basic precept, sovereignty, which stipulates that no nation will use force to interfere in the internal affairs of other nations. However, when nations send terrorists across borders, as Iran does, or cannot control terrorists within their countries that attack us or our allies, we should attribute a new exception to the precept of sovereignty. That is, if terrorists from country A attack people in country B, they forfeit their right to be protected by sovereignty, as they cannot first violate sovereignty and then ask to be protected by it. (I write “new exception” because most nations of the world have already agreed to the Responsibility to Protect, which makes sovereignty conditional when a nation allows genocide to take place within its borders.)

There are those who argue that drones alienate people. However, polls conducted by Pew Research Center show that people in the countries at issue, such as Yemen and Pakistan are no more hostile to the U.S. than are people in Arab countries where drones were not used, and that people in said nations were quite hostile to America before drones were employed.

Finally, one should note that the U.S. government exercises very tight control over the use of drones. There must be at least two independent sources of intelligence before someone can be added to the target list, there are numerous targets against which drones may not be used, and, for many other targets, high-level approval is needed, up to the head of the CIA and even the president.

In short, if kill we must, drones are the preferred tool. They would not be needed if nations prevented terrorists from using their space to attack others across borders. Although every civilian casualty is unquestionably tragic, the main reason they occur is because terrorists masquerade as civilians – not because too many drones are afloat.

习近平身着龙袍

 

英媒称习近平是盛世之末 彻底激怒北京

英国《经济学人》

杂志今年5月曾在封面刊登习近平身着龙袍的图片(图)，并提及中国梦和1793年，隐晦地把习近平治下的中国比作乾隆 盛世之末，结 果激怒北京。随着十八届三中全会临近，外界质疑习近平能否加快改革的声音也在增加，而且把中国现状与清末慈禧同意实施宪政改革时相提并论。
习近平前日会见外宾时强调，三中全会将研究全面深化改革问题并做出总体部署。但是，中共近期对意识形态的整肃已遍及网络、媒体、大学校园，对 宪政、普世价值的攻击更令自由派、改革派寒心，重庆前市委书记薄熙来案二审定案亦未转化成推动改革的助力。可以说，当局所营造的舆论环境与支 持改革是背道而驰的。
习近平是乾隆还是慈禧?中国将走向盛世末路还是已走入乱世深渊?《经济学人》的报道还比较含蓄，而亚洲协会美中关系中心主任夏伟 (Orville Schell)就坦白说，习近平和慈禧太后是异曲同工，面临同样两难──改革太慢会造成社会停滞，改革太快将引发动盪。
温家宝频亮相　改革派展力量
其实，海内外近年不乏把今日中国比作清末的言论，特别是官场腐败的严重性。中共中央党校喉舌《学习时报》亦发表《慈禧太后为甚么想立宪》的文 章，劝喻中共领导人莫错过宪政时机。而任上高举改革旗帜的前总理温家宝近日频亮相，在央视谈习仲勛，昨日又宴请印度总理辛格，似乎是改革派也 在展示力量。

FCPO - Bulls Fight On - 10/28/2013

The market gave another push to the upside for the first 3 days of last week but went into a consolidation for the remaining 2 trading days. If you have applied the prior day low as stop then you would have stopped out by last Friday. But if it is the top band approach, then you are still in the game. It is clear that the market is losing momentum and may begin to retrace some bit. Watch out for a possible new sell signal next when price close below the top band with the Stochastic crossing down its 80's signal line. But I would keep my stop tight once the trade is executed.

The DMI remains positive and the ADX is still rising, this is telling us the trend is still intact.

 
The weekly chart has once again turned in favor of the bull. The Stochastic has turned positive again which is now in agreement with the MACD. The MACD is still rising and moving toward the zero signal line closer than ever. Price has now closed above the top band which is confirming last week's buy signal because it is higher than last week's high. But, it has not able to close above its recent fractal high of 2485 though it did went to test that level. The next few weeks would be crucial for the bull to make or break. I need a solid close above 2485 in order to call the return of the super bull. For the moment, since the ADX is still falling and it is below the 20's, so the bull still does not have a strong grade.

It is getting very exciting to watch whether the market is able to go further up. If so, then my call of a super bull cycle shall play out nicely . Otherwise if market retraces from here, I would think we will see another period of sideway moves. Lets be brutally honest here, our government certainly need more revenue to fill up the bottomless pit of deficits.

FKLI - Running Out Of "Expectations" - 10/28/2013

The market made another upmove last week. If you had used the top band as stop , then your earlier buy position would has stayed intact. But if you had used prior day low as stop, then you would had closed off the long position on the previous Friday. And then you would have bought back in by the last Monday when price went higher than the previous day high again. The market has a slightly bullish bias because price stays above the top band with  MACD staying positive. And if you have used the prior day low as stop again, then your long position is closed off by last Friday when price went below the prior day low. The ADX has been rising and it is now at 22's, so there is a trend in the market, though it may still be a smallish one.
The trade plan would be : to buy in again if price goes above Friday's high and sell new position when if price goes below the top band with confirmation from at least of the indicators. Since the Stochastic is already inside the overbought zone and has turned negative, do expect some retracement.
 

The weekly chart has confirmed last week's buy signal as price has gone higher than last week's high. Price is now solidly above the top band and above its recent fractal high of 1803. The DMI, Stochastic and MACD are positive and rising. But the ADX has remained flat which is NOT confirming a new trend yet. There is a resistance cluster right ahead of the current moves, and they are 1824 and 1835. And also I need to pay attention to the Stochastic which may be entering the overbought zone by the coming week.
In my opinion whatever excuses the market wants to use to push up the market may be near exhausted. The budget , as expected, is nothing to celebrate. The administration clearly cannot kick its many addictions and IMF, World Bank , Rating Agencies continue to breath down on us hard. Another downgrading should not be ruled out and Ringgit depreciation should be educatedly expected. So the people must sit up straight and start to learn to protect their wealth instead of continuing to be sucked into the property speculation  black hole.

FCPO - Bulls Taking Another Rest - 10/21/2013

The market went to do some retracement on last Monday but went recovered all the losses on the following days. The market is NOT exactly moving much upward and last Friday's Japanese Candlestick of a Hanging Man may want to tell us something. I would read it as a loss of momentum. 
The Stochastic has already gone into the overbought zone and turned negative and it is important to us now as the ADX is still below 20's. So it is in charge now, The MACD remains positive and it is above the zero signal line, so I can still regard the market as a bull controlled one. The DMI is also positive  with the ADX begins to rise. This may signaling the beginning of a new trend.
If price goes below the top band with the Stochastic crossing down its 80's level - in another word, a new sell signal. I would be extra cautious about the trade and place stops tight.
 

The weekly chart remains unclear as the previous week's. The Stochastic is negative while the MACD is positive and continues to climb toward its zero signal line. Price remains stuck within the top and bottom band and ADX is still falling and went below the 20's . All these are classic confirmations of a listless market. So same as last week, I would like to see price closes above the top band and preferably close above its recent fractal high of 2485 in order to address this as a new bull cycle. The weekly chart DMI has just gone positive, if price can go above previous week's high by the coming week, then bulls may have a new friend.
The US Dollar has failed to establish a new bullish cycle after the Washington party, so I gather FCPO may follow and take a rest or even retraces before I can see a real bull cycle commences.

FKLI - The US Market Exuberance Faded- 10/21/2013

Last Monday price failed to confirmed the previous day's buy signal as it did not go higher than the signal day's high. Instead it gapped below the top band. But the confirmation finally came on after the holiday. So if you had bought in , then use the top band as stop. But if you are like me who is a little doubtful of our market, then you should use the prior day low as stop. By which the position would has taken out on last Friday.
As far as the indicators are concerned, they are all behind the bulls. The Stochastic continues to rise, but we may see it going into the overbought zone. Remember that the ADX is still below 20's, so this indicator is still in charge. The MACD and DMI remain positive and price stays above the top band. So the game plan is :- if price goes above prior day's high, buy again. Otherwise watch whether the price can stay above the top band for possible shorts entry.
The ADX has begun to rise and I hope to see it goes above its 20's signal line in order to call it a new trend in this market. I hope price can continue to rise further and preferably strongly, otherwise if price starts to fall from here, then you should pay attention to what the MACD will do next.
 
The weekly chart finally managed to have the indicators coming into an agreement. The Stochastic stays positive and rising. The MACD finally turned positive and price just managed to close above top band by a fraction. So if I am trading the weekly chart, I would need a confirmation by the coming week with price goes above last week's high of 1808. Also a closing of above the recent fractal high of 1808. The ADX has stopped falling and turned flat and it is below 20's, so at best I would still call this a listless market.
With the oncoming budget, I think many market players would prefer to play the wait and see game. But for us traders, we would just buy/sell on any new signal and apply tighter stops as there is no new trend yet.

But They Don't Have A Sugar Daddy Like Petronas

 

State-Owned Firms May be Asked to Bail Out Struggling Indian Government

In order to try and repair public finances and the country’s strained budget, India’s Finance Minister P. Chidambaram hoped to raise around $9 billion this year from selling state-owned assets. The fear is that failing to meet the budget would risk India’s investment-grade credit rating. Already at the lowest grade
on the Standard & Poor scale, a further cut would see it ranked as ‘junk’, raising the cost of borrowing on all debt, and possible panicking global financial markets.

So far, Chidambaram has only managed to raise 14.33 billion rupees ($232 million) through sales of the government’s stakes in various companies, around three percent of the total needed by the end of the year.

In order to raise money more quickly the government is considering demanding that the state-run companies pay higher dividends this year. Finance ministers told Reuters that the decision will be made in the new year.

“We will see which companies have good cash reserves. If they (companies) have made good profits and have no immediate plan to spend the money, we may ask for a special dividend.”

A global roadshow planned to take place this month in an effort to attract investors to buy a total 10% stake in Indian Oil Corp (IOC), had to be cancelled at the last minute, but has been rescheduled to take place in December, along with a roadshow for Coal India.
It is expected that the IOC share sale will earn about 40 billion rupees ($647 million), and a five percent stake in Coal India would be worth 100 billion rupees ($1.62 billion).

Chadimbaram has stated that he is confident of meeting the target, or at least getting close to the $9 billion by the end of the year. Other share his confidence, but believe that he may have to find other sources of revenue, or cut deeper into government spending, in order to achieve the target.

The ministry officials told Reuters that the spending budget will likely be cut by 200 billion rupees ($3.23 billion), or more, if they hope to meet the deficit target of 4.8 percent of GDP. Even with the cuts state firms may be asked to pay higher dividends than the 298.7 billion rupees ($4.83 billion) budgeted back in February.

Last year the government had only raised five percent of the target amount through assets sales in the first six months of the year, but a surge at the end of the year helped them; this year they are not expected to be so fortunate.