Sunday, October 27, 2013

FKLI - Running Out Of "Expectations" - 10/28/2013






The market made another upmove last week. If you had used the top band as stop , then your earlier buy position would has stayed intact. But if you had used prior day low as stop, then you would had closed off the long position on the previous Friday. And then you would have bought back in by the last Monday when price went higher than the previous day high again. The market has a slightly bullish bias because price stays above the top band with  MACD staying positive. And if you have used the prior day low as stop again, then your long position is closed off by last Friday when price went below the prior day low. The ADX has been rising and it is now at 22's, so there is a trend in the market, though it may still be a smallish one.

The trade plan would be : to buy in again if price goes above Friday's high and sell new position when if price goes below the top band with confirmation from at least of the indicators. Since the Stochastic is already inside the overbought zone and has turned negative, do expect some retracement.

 

The weekly chart has confirmed last week's buy signal as price has gone higher than last week's high. Price is now solidly above the top band and above its recent fractal high of 1803. The DMI, Stochastic and MACD are positive and rising. But the ADX has remained flat which is NOT confirming a new trend yet. There is a resistance cluster right ahead of the current moves, and they are 1824 and 1835. And also I need to pay attention to the Stochastic which may be entering the overbought zone by the coming week.
In my opinion whatever excuses the market wants to use to push up the market may be near exhausted. The budget , as expected, is nothing to celebrate. The administration clearly cannot kick its many addictions and IMF, World Bank , Rating Agencies continue to breath down on us hard. Another downgrading should not be ruled out and Ringgit depreciation should be educatedly expected. So the people must sit up straight and start to learn to protect their wealth instead of continuing to be sucked into the property speculation  black hole.

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