Is The Crude Oil Current Rally Done ?

Looking at the daily continuation chart for Crude Oil futures since the record highs were made back in 2008, I notice that the current rally has sent prices to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the all time-highs to the 2009 lows. This  is  a significant retracement level, which if violated, we may see a potential test of the all-time highs ! However, should this key resistance level hold, a pull-back to the 50% retracement near the 90.00 area would not be a surprise.

The next major chart resistance level above the current price is not found until the 110.50 area, with minor support seen at 100.00 and chart support all the way back towards the 93.00 area.


But since I cannot find any bearish divergence at the MACD at this moment, so I think there may still be some upside to go.

KCPO:- Will This  Be A Short Term Rebound ?- 3/7/2011

Last week I thought this market may has reached a temporary bottom and advised that you should take profit. The market actually began to rebound from last Monday. I bought the market again when price went above the lower Bollinger Band and the Stochastic turned positive last Wednesday. Depend of your risk appetite, place stop at 3540 or 3560 .

The daily ADX has turned down. This is telling us the prior selling has  at least temporarily ceased. But I would take the current move to be of one of those smallish short term move because the lack of trend, so I would keep my stop tight.

                      


The weekly chart's Stochastic has finally crossed down below its 80's signal line, offering an initial sell signal. Though the MACD continues to fall, price did not close below its middle band which is the 20 periods moving average. With the ADX continues to fall, I would think the market could be caught in a side way situation for a while before doing its next course of clear directional move.

I would continue to monitor the FX market intensely for possible hints to most commodities market's next direction. You should pay attention to any abrupt falls in major FX pairs like the AUD and CAD. These 2 are usually considered to closely tied to the commodities market.

FKLI:- A Short Term Rebound But Get Ready For A Big one - 3/7/2011

Last week I thought the short trade taken would most probably turn out to be unprofitable due to the flat ADX. I was expecting the market making up and down short term moves . It turned out to be true and my 1,500 stop was taken out again. I went back in to buy the market on last Thursday. This time the move is also accompanied by a positive MACD.

Place stop at 1506.

With the ADX now has started to fall, I would consider whatever the current direction is, it should be of a  very short term. Last Friday's price movement was a typical example. Price went a higher  than its prior high of 1523 registered on 21/2/2011 but it failed to close above it. So I would place my stop tighter with each passing day. (like yesterday low minus 1-2 points). But if your risk appetite is bigger, then keep an eye on the Stochastic for exit signal.


                      


The weekly chart is of a classic sideway market. The ADX has now fallen below 20's and price is caught within the upper and lower bands.  Though the MACD remains negative , the Stochastic seems to be getting ready to turn around. If it becomes so, then we will have another classic sideway market confirmation, i.e. both indicators contradict each other. But I take note that the Bollinger Band has begun to "squeeze". If you have been following this column, you would know a "squeezing" band usually will bring forth some monstrous move soon. With the earlier mentioned bearish divergence in this chart, I would bet on the sell side. But of course, we should always await for the market confirmation on the new direction rather than stubbornly sticking to what we think.



There is a lot of fears in the market due to the explosive geo-politics situation. Every "experts" are telling you that oil will kill everybody. I append herewith a chart which you would draw a different conclusion. It shows very clearly that oil intensity of global GDP continues to decline. That is saying oil is weighing lesser and lesser on the global GDP. With most developed country possessing a 6 months or more of strategic oil stock (except China which only has 1 month worth of stock), any short term disruption can hardly harm the major economies.

Dictators Need More Investment Advises Than The Rest Of Us

 

“如果被抛弃，我宁愿坐在宝马车里哭泣，也 不愿坐在自行车后笑。”

二奶与奢侈品 中国社会的悲歌

 智威汤逊广告公司（JWT）亚洲北区董事总经理唐锐涛（Tom Doctoroff）近日在美国《赫芬顿邮报》撰文“‘二奶’与中国繁荣的奢侈品市场”。他说，根据2008年一项研究显示，“二奶”消费了全中国三分之 一的奢侈品，不但点出外国奢侈品牌在国内的市场大有可为，也凸显现阶段中国社会追求物欲的歪风与悲哀。

作者说，在当今的中国社会，“二奶”虽不被社会上所接受，但很多人却不将其视为丑闻，反而视其 为财富、地位与权力的象征。他转述友人估计，在中国包养一个二奶的平均成本是5万元人民币。

作者认为，这个二奶的现象与中国传统文化的陋习有关：男人必须完成上天赋予的传宗接代的任务，女人则是怀孕生子的工具，而纳妾在中国已行之几 千年。他指出，由于中国没有出现人权的革命，导致许多人认为性与婚姻是两回事，也说明为何许多亚洲地区的性行业会如此泛滥了。

其实，婚姻的核心是“承诺”，家庭因此得以凝聚。即使在今天的社会，妻子通常会希望与丈夫白头偕老，而不希望丈夫纳妾或养二奶。在中国，如果 一个不怎么富裕的男人纳了妾，那么这将成为婚姻的一大威胁。但如果这个男人很有办法，也多金，有的妻子对其纳妾的行为便会睁一只眼闭一只眼的 隐忍。

他还说，中国很少人拥有名牌汽车，因为这太显眼了。或许奔驰、宝马、奥迪A8等名车还可被接受，但若拥有玛莎拉蒂（Maseratis）就太 招摇了。但是，在朋友与熟识的圈子里，二奶已被公认是炫耀财富。

据统计，2009年中国的奢侈品购买金额中50%是为了送礼。作者说，大部份的礼物是男人送给 男人的，用于公关、巴结、利益输送之用，但他估计，男人送给二奶的礼物更贵重。因为二奶对生活有极度的不安感，他们必须向外界展示男人对 其如何死心塌地。

在中国最富有的一级城市，这个现象尤为明显。至于中国中产阶级的男人拥有二奶的比例是多少？他询问中国友人得到的答案是：85~95%。这些 人都将二奶视为身份与地位的炫耀品。即使前中共头子江泽民也高调败德，拥有一个每年在央视春晚节目露脸的歌星宋祖英。

作者调侃，中共当局规定官员不得包养二奶，不是因为道德理由，而是怕他们贪污。因为光靠官员的薪水是根本包养不起的，但许多贪污下台的高官却 都有二奶。

作者认为，二奶对奢侈品有强烈的偏好，除了可显示优雅与显眼外，还可展示其与元配一较长短的身分与地位，因此在中国的奢侈品市场，你可以看到 越来越多的利基性品牌蓬勃发展。他指出，在英国出现年轻效应（chav effect）的巴宝莉（Burberry）皮包品牌，由于已进行品牌再生，在当前的中国市场仍是梦寐以求的商品。

在西方，婚姻是建立在浪漫与热情的基础，尽管热情会随时间淡去，但婚姻关系仍能紧密相连。但在中国，婚姻不是夫妻两人之事，而是两个家族的事 情，因它被视为个人接连社会的桥梁。在中国，浪漫并不理想，除非它伴随着承诺。

中文说“钻石恒久远”，但没有说热情会维持长久。这就是为何许多男人要用贵重的礼物表达爱意，买很多礼物给情妇的缘故了。

《非诚勿扰》片中的拜金女马诺在剧中强调物质利益，说这是她一直在找寻的最重要的事，结果引起轩然大波。她的经典台词是：“如果被抛弃，我宁愿坐在宝马车里哭泣，也不愿坐在自行车后笑。”人 们指控她缺少道德，但她点出一个事实：说到底，为了未来的稳定，中国这个社会正迫使人们去寻找有形的回报。

作者最后结论道，当然，这不是说中国人不会去爱，或他们不想谈恋爱。而是说，在一个不安全感很重的中国社会里，罗曼蒂克的恋爱是无法和有形的 物质利益竞争的。

Chinese Ghost Airport

Around three quarters of China’s 175 gleaming airports are losing money, many are barely used and some don’t have any flights at all.

Beijing’s solution to this problem? Accelerate the building spree with a plan to add 45 new commercial airports over the next five years, bringing the total across the country to more than 220 by 2015.

The country’s civil aviation regulator announced last week that the government plans to invest more than Rmb1,500bn ($230bn) in the aviation sector in the next five years, with the bulk of the money to be spent on new airports and new aircraft.

That compares with the roughly Rmb1,000bn spent in the sector over the last five years.

The total national aircraft fleet, operated almost entirely by state-owned carriers, will be expanded to more than 4,500 over that time from 2,600 aircraft at the end of last year.

Many of the airport projects in the works are similar to the one in the town of Jiaxing in eastern Zhejiang province, which sits roughly an hour’s drive from three of the country’s biggest international airports – two in Shanghai and one in the city of Hangzhou.

Despite a brand new high-speed rail line and numerous expressways that connect Jiaxing to Shanghai and Hangzhou the Jiaxing government is investing around Rmb300m on a commercial airport.

In private, Chinese officials outside the aviation sector say the proliferation of airports across the country is a serious concern but that the central government has trouble saying no to local officials who make the long-term economic case for improved aviation infrastructure.

Of course, the enormous opportunities for graft and skimming off the top are great incentives for the local officials to propose the projects in first place.

In the short-term most airport projects will continue to lose money in the face of growing competition from high-speed rail and lack of passenger demand for out-of-the-way destinations.

This becomes a wider economic problem when you realize that when the government says it will invest Rmb1,500bn in the aviation sector it actually means it will order state-controlled banks to lend most of that money to approved airport projects and national carriers.

In the case of Jiaxing airport, local officials say they expect to recoup all their money by 2025 but many analysts say this kind of investment will just end up as a bad loan on the books of a Chinese bank.

Interesting statistical note on America & Oil

Many commentators use the total consumption of 18.8 million barrels per day and the 5.35 MBD of crude oil production to then conclude the U.S. only supplies some 28.5% of its oil consumption. This is not true; including other liquid oil supplies drawn from natural gas wells, etc., the U.S. still produces about half of the oil it consumes. The U.S. remains the Number Three producer of oil, just behind Russia and Saudi Arabia. The U.S. produces roughly the same amount of oil as Canada, Mexico and the United Arab Emirates combined (numbers 6,7 and 8 in the list of top oil producers). The U.S. is also far and away the world's top consumer of oil. (China may consume more energy, but much of this is coal, not oil.)