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Canada’s plan to beat Trump on trade is working

What the latest trade data revealed

Canadians were shocked when Donald Trump followed through on a blanket tariff attack that he had threatened for months before taking office. Ottawa quickly promised that the country would fight back, and recent data revealed the government’s plan is working.

Trump’s tariff attack in March

In March 2025, Trump levied a hefty 25% blanket tariff on Canada. Prime Minister Mark Carney warned at the time that the country’s old relationship with the United States was over in the wake of Donald Trump’s targeted tariff attack. Big changes were coming.

Reimagining Canadian trade

“Over the coming weeks, months, and years, we must fundamentally reimagine our economy,” Carney explained to reporters following a meeting with his cabinet about US-Canadian relations, according to Global News.

The old relationship is over

“The old relationship we had with the United States, based on deepening integration of our economies and tight security and military cooperation, is over,” Carney added.

Promising change for Canadians

The Liberal government moved quickly to put forth a policy platform focused on moving Canada away from its reliance on the United States in the hopes that its anti-American sentiment would win over voters in the April 2025 federal election. This plan worked.

Whether the Liberals won because Carney was seen as the best candidate to deal with the coming economic storm imposed by the Trump administration's tariffs, or if he beat out his rivals as a result of Trump’s comments, is still unclear. However, what is clear is that Carney quickly got down to the business of putting his policies into action.

The changes came quickly

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According to analysis from The Logic’s Joanna Smith, the Liberal government has toned down its rhetoric about the United States and lifted most of the nation’s retaliatory tariffs, but it has also begun delivering on the trade diversification promises made by Carney, which Smith noted was starting to show up in government data.

In October, Carney promised to double Canada’s non-US exports by 2035. Government data shows that the country is already well on its way to diversifying its trading partners.

The latest government trade data revealed that Canada exported roughly $430 billion worth of goods to the United States from January 2025 to September 2025, which Smith noted was down by roughly 3% over the same period in 2024. While the approximately $430 billion dollars worth of goods that Canada exported to the United States from January to September represented nearly three-quarters of exported goods from the country in that time period, there were still major signs that exports were growing to other countries.

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“Canadians have woken up,” Canada’s International Trade Minister Maninder Sidhu explained to The Logic. “We are overexposed to the U.S., and we need to be able to diversify into other markets.”

A major increase in trade with the UK

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According to an analysis of Canada’s trade data, the value of merchandise exported to the United Kingdom grew by about $9.7 billion from January to September 2025. Smith noted this was a “bigger year-over-year increase than any other market.” Most of the export growth came from unwrought gold, with crude oil in second place.

Canada also grew its exports to the European Union between January and September 2025 by just over $5 billion from the same period in 2024. Oil exports led the rise, but canola exports also played a significant role in the increase. Exports to Singapore increased by 67% from January to September 2025 compared to the same period the previous year. Crude oil again drove the increase, but aerospace technologies like turbojet parts were important as well. 

The crowning jewel of Canada’s push to diversify its trade partners can be found in an unlikely nation: Indonesia. Carney recently signed a new free trade deal with the Asian giant. Once the agreement goes into effect, Smith noted that annual exports to the country will increase by $216 million, or a rise of just over 5%. According to Canada’s trade data, exports to Indonesia grew by $530 million between January to September compared to the same time period in 2024. About one-third of that growth came from coal, while another one-third came from potassium chloride, which is used in potash-based fertilizers for agricultural use.

A key sector of future diversification

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The aerospace sector could also prove to be a key area for Canada and its mission to diversify its trade, since NATO member state defense spending is set to rise to 5% of their GDP by 2035, Sidhu explained to The Logic.

What will the future bring?

While it is still unclear how the goal to diversify Canada’s trade will shift in the coming months and years, it is clear that the steps Carney and his government have taken are already yielding benefits. It may take years, but the over-reliance on the United States for the prosperity of Canada will likely come to an end.