KCPO - More Powers To The Bulls - 12/31/2012

The past week confirmed another buy signal as price went above 2410. I added onto my long positions. And I am placing my stop at 2410, somewhere below the top band. The ADX finally begin to rise and just crossed above the falling D-. Some traders take this as another buy signal.  The MACD has just crossed above its zero signal line which is more reassuring for the bulls. So is the expanding D+. The Stochastic has now gone above 80's so we may see some consolidation or minor retracement around here. 

 

 The weekly chart's ADX has finally stopped rising and it is now above the DMI, which may be signaling an oversold market and  the end of the prior trend. Price broke higher than last week's high and this comes with a newly positive MACD and a Stochastic crossing above its 20's signal line. These are confirming a new buy signal. Since there is only a divergence found at the Stochastic and not in the MACD, so I will only consider this as a strong technical rebound and not a major bull cycle. But the intial target is 2700's and we may even see a retest of the 3,000's, it is going to be a highly profitable trade.

 

 The monthly chart's Stochastic has gone into the oversold zone and I would want to see if there is a possible new cycle from here. The MACD remains negative but prices seem to find a strong support 2220's where it has not been to penetrate down for the past 3 months, but neither can it goes higher. So we are having a clear consolidation here, 2 things will eventually happen after this:- the market can either collapse through the support or it starts to go higher. Though the Stochastic may be at the oversold zone, but no one can guarantee it would collapse further. I would watchout for any breach of the support for the downside and the bottom band of 2695 for the upside.

I was monitoring most of the comments in the media on this market for the past one month and almost every one of them has been bearish on this market while every competent technical analyst would have been wetting in their pants with bullishness. But if you have followed the chart and entered long position at around 2300's, there would already a minimum of 150+ points profit to your position and I am quite sure we may see more to come.

FKLI - New High Maybe But Don't Get Too Excited- 12/31/2012

The market continues to climb  and it has now broken above the resistance of 1678. If you have bought above that level, keeping stop at past day low minus 1-2 point shuld be prudent. As the Stochastic is above 80's , ADX is above the DMI and went flat for the past 3 trading days. The D+ has been falling which is telling us the bulls are losing power. I am reading all these as an overbought market. So I would not be as bullish as many of the other analysts . Of course this is not to say that the market will not go further up and collapse soon, but with the indicators showing such, I would advocate caution.

 

 The weekly chart continues last week's bullish reading as both the Stochastic , DMI and MACD are positive and rising. The Japanese Candlestick cleared the resistance. All these are confirming a buy mode. But the ADX continues to stay flat which is not supporting a new trend yet.



 The monthly chart's D+ is showing the same detoriating buy power and the ADX continues to fall. It is now at 13's so I do not expect any substantial moves. The MACD has begun to turn up again while the Stochastic is in the overbought zone. Nothing here is telling us to expect a great bull ahead, but instead there is also a bearish divergence present here as in the weekly chart, so I will be very careful to take side with the bull. 1590 support is crucial for the return of the bears, so watch that level carefully.

I am not worried about the America's so called Fiscal Cliff and all these talks how it is going affect the rest of world is just another "end of the world" nonsense. Their stock market is due for a correction and that is all to it. So is our market. Sometime our market cycles coincides with theirs, sometime we do not.

“ 思想是不怕子彈的 ”  

" 人民不應該害怕政府，政府應該害怕人民＂

（北京16日讯）中国中央电视台周五晚突有惊人之举，播放美国影片《V煞》（中国译《V字別动队》）。该影片多年来一直禁在中国放映，因主题 宣扬「以暴制暴」、反抗专制独裁统治，令人易对现实產生联想。影片播映令观眾意外，亦被视作政治影片解禁的重要信號，受到各方的极大关注。

综合报导，央视CCTV-6（电影频道）周五晚10时左右播出这部禁片，採用的是 普通话配原版影片。

不少熟知该片的观眾，之前看到央视影片预告时仍心存质疑，认为即使播映，也一定刪减改造台词。

不料，全片非但一刀未减，普通话对白更照译无误，不少台词针对性强，令人联想中共的独裁与暴政。

经典台词网络疯传

有观眾越看越感到「不对劲」，在网上发声：「央视逆天啊！」「教人抗暴政，央视太猛了！」

片中经典台词这两天在微博（微型部落格）上疯传，包括「艺术家用谎言道出真相，政客用谎言掩盖真相」、「思想是不怕子弹的」、「人民不应该害 怕政府，政府应该害怕人民」、「你们曾经有过反对的自由，也有思考和言论的自由，现在逼你们就范的是审查制度和监视系统」等。

据內部人士透露，央视电影频道与中央电视台並无隶属关係，而是直属国家广电总局。

每部影片的播出都要经广电总局严格审查，「也就是说，该片的播出是经过了广电总局的许可，这可能是令很多人意想不到的事。」

据消息人士透露，此前，中国导演陆川的作品《王的盛宴》就因遭受广电总局审查而推迟上映4个多月。理由之一是內容涉及权力斗爭，官方担心作品 影射现实。不过，同样涉及权爭內容的港產片《寒战》却在十八大开幕当天如期上映。

进口片或宽鬆

陆川接受媒体採访时提出，中国电影审查的尺度「时鬆时紧」、「没人摸得清楚」。他呼吁按照国际惯例对电影分级，並给中国导演「鬆绑」，「电影 是一种文化，它不是政治」。

分析人士表示，这次影片得以完整播出，很大程度上显示出中国电影审查尺度的鬆动，但却並非意味著电影审查制度的终结。

中国电影审查可能进入「內外有別」的新阶段，即对包括港產片在內的进口电影採取较宽鬆的审查政策；而对中国导演的作品，仍会进行比较严格的审 查。

十八大后多政治异象

自中共展开十八大换届以来，中国出现不少政治异象受到外界关注，包括广州美术展公开展出「六四天安门王维林只身挡坦克」、十八大新闻中心一度 掛出有赵紫阳的歷史照等。虽经媒体曝光后部门急急收回，但已引起外界联想议论。

香港《苹果日报》报导，十八大后，中国各种民间政治组织再活跃，开研討会、座谈、公开信上书等，向中共当局「进言」要求政改等。中国一部名为 《血的神话：1967年湖南道县大屠杀纪实》的书作被禁26年，日前也获准上网，在网上自由下载。

此外，近年中国民间反政府示威越来越频，但示威者多遭「秋后算账」，现场拍下样貌再拘捕坐牢。《V煞》在中国播映，令民眾见识西方影视中抗暴英雄的形象，也令「戴假面具反抗」成为中国民眾津津乐道的话题。

 “藝 術家用謊言道出真相，政客用謊言掩蓋真相＂

有中国网民称，今后参加反政府游行不排除做「面具示威者」，避当局拍摄，保护自己。

资料档：面具怪客率民眾抗爭

《V煞》（V for Vendetta）是美国好莱坞2006年度科幻惊悚电影，华纳兄弟公司出品。影片讲述虚擬未来世界，英国变成一个由独裁者统治的法西斯极权国家，人民生 活在残暴统治下。疾病、饥荒、灰暗，且秘密警察无处不在，人民动輒就被抓去，送入集中营虐待致死。

这时，戴面具、披斗篷的神秘怪人V出现，他不但拯救剧中女主角，更「以暴制暴」带领民眾与独裁政府抗爭，给人们带来正义与自由同时， 也把社会推向残酷与墮落深渊。

中国儿童命不值钱？

美国教师为学生挡子弹

「中国儿童命不值钱？」

网民也討论美国鎗枝管制的问题，並比较中国和美国的校园安全。

但最被关注的，还是署名「韩志国」、「作业本」等网民发出的质疑，指央视等中国主流媒体，都在 大篇幅报导美国的校园鎗击案，却对河南省一男子砍伤某校22名学生一案只字不提，「是因为中国儿童的生命不值钱吗？」

这两篇发出质疑的微博，立刻引起中国网民热烈回应和转发。

网民「tiancfli」指责央视，「自己国內一团糟，还好意思整天报导別人，谴责別人」。这 名网民並用英文简写骂了脏话，说对此事「不爆粗口不舒服」。(hahaha - did he use the 4's or the 12's model ?)

网民「聂尽白」批评，「每次只要美国一发生鎗击案，央视记者总会在第一时间气喘吁吁的跑到现场 大肆报导！这该是一种多么伟大的人道主义关怀啊！不过，国內每次发生校园惨案时，央视的记者们又全都跑哪去了呢？」

学生被砍无人看守

据报导，本月14日，河南光山县文殊乡陈棚村完全小学发生惨案。36岁的村民閔应军衝入小学，砍伤学生22名、群眾一名，警方初步认定閔应军 有精神病。

有中国媒体记者前往深入採访，村干部因私事不在家，教育局的人竟在办公室玩电脑游戏。记者核实嫌犯有精神病的消息是否准確，县委官员却问：「討论这有啥意义？」

有评论指，美国校园惨案细节多多，河南光山却用各种手段拒绝採访、封锁消息，官 员漠然態度令人失望。

而更惊人的是，媒体报导指，有著几百名学生的完全小学，上课期间大门竟无人值守。

嫌犯衝进校园 后，拿著刀逐间教室从一楼砍到三楼，期间丝毫不见老师的影子；

与美国校园惨案中，老师为 了保护孩童而表现出的勇敢、尽职，犹如天渊之別。

喋血炼狱　教师为学生挡子弹

56 岁的心理专家舍拉克（左起），是惨案中最年长的受害者；27岁的老师索托及时把学生藏起自己却遇害；校长霍克斯普朗用身躯挡 住鎗手的去路，惨遭处决式鎗杀。

（哈特福德16日讯）

康涅狄格州凶手连环开鎗杀死26名学童和老师，英勇 的老师將孩童视如己出，以肉身为学生挡子弹；也有老师守护、安抚学童，带他们走过人间炼狱。 一些师长因保护儿童而丧命，被视为英雄。

事发时，47岁女校长霍克斯普朗正在办公室，与校园治疗师戴尔、56岁心理舍拉克和教师开会。戴尔即时躲到桌子下，但霍克斯普朗和舍 拉克即时跑出课室外查看发生什么事，却遇上了戴了面罩及拿著手鎗的兰扎。两 人用身躯挡住鎗手的去路，与鎗手纠缠期间惨遭行刑式鎗杀。

另一名与鎗手纠缠身中两鎗的副校长，侥倖生还。

27岁第一班女老师索托已任教5年。她听到鎗声后，立即將学生推进储物室。兰扎未几赶来，她挡在学生前结果惨遭轰毙，令学生们都非常感动和 伤心。

索托的人生目標就是当老师，亲戚威齐说：「她为自己所爱的事奉献生命。」

镇定锁门救学生

凶手兰扎之后走到另一间课室，一边用力拍门，一边大叫：「让我进来！让我进来！」终于他决定放弃，继续前进。

课室里15名孩子全部平安，皆因镇定机警的音乐教师克里斯托皮克，一听到鎗声立即命令班上15名八九岁学生躲进储物室里，锁上课室 门，再將柜子推到门前顶著。

一名家长非常感激地说：「我要谢谢她。她救了孩子们。」

正给第一班学生上课的罗伊格，一样镇定锁上课室门，把15名学生送进小小洗手间，同时要学生们绝对安静。

在恶梦般的沉默中，他们听见走廊传来鎗声。她说：「我告诉孩子们，外面有坏人， 我们必须等好人来。」

6岁童拉朋友逃走

罗伊格告诉美国广播公司新闻网，有些孩子哭了，要找爸爸妈妈，有的说：「我想过圣诞节，我不想死。」一名男孩说：「別怕，我会空手 道，可以带大家脱离危险。」

她担心他们逃不过这一劫，「我心里想，下一个就轮到我们」。

她心想，必须扮演父母，告诉这些孩子她有多爱他们。「我 要他们知道，有人好爱他们，我希望他们最后听到的是爱，而不是走廊上的鎗声。」

走廊的鎗声终于停了，他们听到警方敲门並呼唤他们。罗伊格戒慎恐惧，要求警方把警徽从门缝塞进去给她看才愿意开门。

一名8岁男童也说老师救了他。他在走廊上，「看到一些子弹飞过，然后有老师把我拉进她的课室」。

混乱中，一名校工不怕危险，在走廊大叫有鎗手，警告大家要伏下或找地方躲 避，被讚是「真英雄」。

救人的不只老师，小孩子也很勇敢。利卡塔以6岁的儿子为荣，鎗手开鎗打伤老师后，「我儿拉了几个朋友衝到课室外」。利卡塔说：「他没拋下朋友，他非常勇敢。」

The Return Of "the most dangerous politician in Japan"

Spotlight on Japan: Return of 'Abenomics', More Militarism, Tougher China Line;
Outlook for Yen and Nikkei

The Japanese election hands former prime minister Shinzo Abe a chance for redemption according to The Guardian.

    Japan's voters appear to have short memories. Shinzo Abe, who is assured of becoming prime minister after his party's resounding victory in Sunday's election, last led the country in 2006, but stepped down after a troubled year in office.

    The official reason given for his abrupt resignation was a chronic bowel ailment, which the leader, 58, says he now controls with a new drug. But his health condition may have been a cover. Abe's first administration was marred by scandals and gaffes. Months before he quit, his Liberal Democratic party [LDP] suffered a heavy defeat in upper house elections.

    Sunday's resounding election victory has given him one last shot at redemption, as only the second Japanese politician to serve twice as prime minister since the war.

    Behind Abe's soft-spoken manner and aristocratic background lurks a fervent nationalist, which led one liberal commentator to describe him as "the most dangerous politician in Japan".

    Abe has often said he went into politics to help Japan "escape the postwar regime" and throw off the shackles of wartime guilt. In its place he has talked of creating a "beautiful Japan" defended by a strong military and guided by a new sense of national pride.

    Abe's biggest ideological influence was his maternal grandfather, Nobusuke Kishi, who was arrested, but never charged, for alleged war crimes. He went on to become prime minister in the late 1950s.

    Decades later, confronted with an aggressive China and nuclear-armed North Korea, Abe is eager to fulfil his grandfather's dream of giving Japan's military the teeth he believes it has been denied by the country's postwar pacifism.

More Militarism, Preposterous Denial

The BBC reports Shinzo Abe vows tough China line

    The BBC's Rupert Wingfield-Hayes says that as many predicted, Japan has taken a sharp turn to the right.

    Mr Noda lost over his move to double sales tax, something he said was necessary to tackle Japan's massive debt.

    By contrast, Mr Abe has promised more public spending, looser monetary policy, and to allow nuclear energy a role to play in resource-poor Japan's future despite last year's nuclear disaster at Fukushima.

    But economists say there is little new in Mr Abe's policies, or 'Abenomics' as they have been called. They have been adopted by previous LDP governments without successfully renewing the Japanese economy.

    In a recent interview, Mr Abe told me [Rupert Wingfield-Hayes] it was time for Japan to change its pacifist constitution so it can have a proper military and defend its own territory. He also vowed to protect every inch of Japan's sacred land and sea - including the disputed Senkaku or Diaoyu Islands.

    That by itself is not particularly controversial. But Mr Abe belongs to that part of Japanese society that does not really believe Japan's wartime aggression against China and South East Asia was a crime.

    He favours the teaching of a more patriotic, uncritical version of Japanese history. Most controversially, he has openly said he does not believe that Japanese troops forced Chinese, Korean, and women from other Asian countries into sexual slavery during the Second World War.

    China will now be watching very closely. Will Mr Abe, as prime minister, visit the extremely controversial Yasakuni Shrine in Tokyo to pay homage to Japan's war dead? Will he move to revoke a 1993 Japanese government apology on the "comfort women" issue? And what will he do to about Chinese ships and aircraft challenging Japan's control of the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands?

Turn to the Right?

More fiscal stimulus coupled with pressure on the central bank for looser monetary policies cannot be associated with "right-wing" politics.

However, his request to change the constitution to allow Japan to "have a proper military and defend its own territory, including every inch of Japan's sacred land and sea - including the disputed Senkaku or Diaoyu Islands" is certainly right-wing.

Abe's denial regarding "comfort women" in World War II is as preposterous as neo-Nazi claims that Hitler did not kill Jews.

On these three issues, his monetary policy is a scary turn to the left, his militarism is a scary turn to the right, and his denial regarding "comfort women" is a dive straight into the loony bin.

Yen, Nikkei

The politics of Abe seem favorable for a continued decline in the Yen and a rise in Japanese equities.

$XJY Yen Daily



$NIKK Nikkei Daily



Since Mid-November the Nikkei has been on an upward tear. The Yen has been in decline since the start of October.

Both trends have favorable fundamentals, and both are worth watching.

The Hedge Funds With The Biggest Stakes In Gun Manufacturers

Friday's tragic elementary school shooting in Newtown, Connecticut has renewed the debate on gun control in the U.S. and Obama has even pledged to use the power of his office to stop gun violence. 

Shares of publicly traded gun manufacturers Smith & Wesson and Sturm, Ruger & Co. have been under pressure.

Smith & Wesson's stock fell 0.47 cents or 5.2% to close at $8.65 a share yesterday.  Shares were last trading down more than 3.6% in the pre-market.

Meanwhile, shares of Sturm, Ruger & Co. fell $1.57 or 3.45% to close at $44 a share yesterday.  The stock was last trading down 2% in the pre-market.

We decided to see which hedge funds have the largest stakes in these publicly traded gun manufacturers. 
Here's a rundown of six hedge funds with the biggest stake in Smith & Wesson, according to 13F data compiled by Bloomberg. (Note: This data is from 13Fs filed with the SEC for the third quarter ended 9/30/2012.)

• Renaissance Technologies held 3,395,000 shares or a 5.12% stake, the data shows. RenTech added 1,210,600 shares in the third quarter ended 9/30/2012. 
• Route One Investment Company held 1,242,000  shares or 1.87% stake for the quarter ended 9/30. Route One added 1,242,000 shares during the third quarter. 
• Steelhead Partners LLC owned 1,282,7000 shares or a 1.85% stake. Steelhead sold 450,000 shares during Q3.
• Columbia Partners had 801,691 shares or a 1.21% stake in Q3. Columbia Partners revealed a new stake of 801,691 shares during the third quarter ended 9/30.
• Bogle Investment Management held 656,288 shares or a 0.99% stake in the third quarter. Bogle Investment Management sold 1,027 shares in Q3, the data shows.
• Millennium Management had 618,881 shares or a 0.93% stake for the quarter ended 9/30.  Millennium added 470,007 shares during the third quarter. 

Now here's a rundown of the six hedge funds with the largest stake in Sturm, Ruger & Co., according to 13F data compiled by Bloomberg for the third quarter ended 9/30/2012.

• James Investment Research Inc. held 904,360 shares or a 4.27% stake in Q3. James Investment Research sold 2,323 in the third quarter, the data shows. 
• Renaissance Technologies owned 850,900 shares or a 4.44% stake in the third quarter.  The hedge fund sold 181,600 shares in Q3, the data shows. 
• Tiger Global Management disclosed a new position of 800,000 shares, or a 4.18% stake, in the third quarter ended 9/30, the data shows.
• South Point Capital Advisors had 665,963 shares or a 3.48% stake in Q3, according to 13F data.  The hedge fund sold 70,100 shares in the third quarter. 
• Valinor Management LLC held 223,620 shares or a 1.17% stake in Q3.  Valinor sold 56,040 shares in Q3, the data shows.
• Route One Investment Company disclosed a new position of 167,000 shares or a 0.87% stake during the third quarter ended 9/30.

Again, this data is only for the third quarter.  These hedge funds could have done a number of things with their positions.

HSBC Bankers Get No Jail Time for Terrorist Financing

This past week, the Justice Department announced that HSBC Bank had agreed to forfeit $1.256 billion and “enter a deferred prosecution agreement” for engaging in money laundering that involved the financing of drug cartels and groups with ties to terrorism. The agreement indicated there would be no criminal prosecution. Not one bank executive or lower-level banker would be put on trial and possibly sentenced to jail for his or her role in allowing money to be transferred to drug cartels or terrorists.

Meanwhile, that same day, Nima Ali Yusuf, 26, a Somali woman who fled war-torn Somalia when she was a child, was sentenced to eight years in prison for sending $1,450 to “members of a terrorist organization in her native country.” The scale of the crime committed by Yusuf, who pled guilty to charges just over a year ago in December 2011, is incredibly minor and insignificant when compared to the acts engaged in by bank executives at HSBC.

Laid out in detail in a Senate report released in July of this year, HSBC was engaged in banking with the Al Rajhi Bank, which is run by members of the Al Rajhi family alleged to have been “major donors to al Qaeda or Islamic charities suspected of funding terrorism.” They established “their own nonprofit organizations in the United States that sent funds to terrorist organizations, or used Al Rajhi Bank itself to facilitate financial transactions for individuals or nonprofit organizations associated with terrorism” in the years after the September 11th attacks, according to the report.

In March 2002, the US Treasury Department conducted a “search of 14 interlocking business and nonprofit entities in Virginia associated with the SAAR Foundation, an Al Rajhi-related entity and the Al Rajhi family.

As outlined in the Senate report:

    The SAAR Foundation is a Saudi-based nonprofit organization, founded by Sulaiman bin Abdul Aziz Al Rajhi in the 1970s, named after him, and used by him to support a variety of nonprofit endeavors, academic efforts, and businesses around the world. In 1983, the SAAR Foundation formed a Virginia corporation, SAAR Foundation, Inc., and operated it in the United States as a tax-exempt nonprofit organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the U.S. tax code. In 1996, another nonprofit organization was incorporated in Virginia called Safa Trust Inc. These and other nonprofit and business ventures associated with the Al Rajhi family shared personnel and office space, primarily in Herndon, Virginia. In 2000, SAAR Foundation Inc. was dissolved but the Safa Trust continued to operate.

    An affidavit filed by the United States in support of the search warrant alleged that the Safa Group appeared to be involved with providing material support to terrorism. Among other matters, it alleged that members of the Safa Group had transferred “large amounts of funds …directly to terrorist-front organizations since the early 1990’s,” including a front group for the Palestinian Islamic Jihad-Shikaki Faction, a designated terrorist organization. but the Safa Trust continued to operate. It also detailed a $325,000 donation by the Safa Trust to a front group for Hamas, another designated terrorist organization. In addition, the affidavit expressed suspicion about a transfer of over $26 million from members of the Safa Group to two offshore entities in the Isle of Man. The affidavit further alleged that “one source of funds flowing through the Safa Group [was] from the wealthy Al-Rajhi family in Saudi Arabia.”

    The search produced about 200 boxes of information which was then analyzed and used in other investigations and prosecutions, although neither the SAAR Foundation or Safa Trust has been charged with any wrongdoing. In 2003, Abdurahman Alamoudi, who had worked for SAAR Foundation Inc. from 1985 to 1990, as executive assistant to its president, pled guilty to plotting with Libya to assassinate the Saudi crown prince and was sentenced to 23 years in jail. He had also openly supported Hamas and Hezbollah, two terrorist organizations designated by the United States. According to an affidavit supporting the criminal complaint against him, Mr. Alamoudi admitted receiving $340,000 in sequentially numbered $100 bills from Libya while in London, and planned “to deposit the money in banks located in Saudi Arabia, from where he would feed it back in smaller sums into accounts in the United States.” According to the affidavit, he also admitted involvement in similar cash transactions involving sums in the range of $10,000 to $20,000.

Additionally, a key founder of the Al Rajhi Bank was one of twenty key terror financiers Osama bin Laden dubbed the “Golden Chain.”

The small sum of money Yusuf is alleged to have provided pales in comparison to the transactions highlighted above, which HSBC is believed to have enabled in part through its business with the Al Rajhi Bank.

Yusuf wrote a letter to the judge seeking to explain her contributions saying they were “motivated by a desire to provide food and medical care for those in need.” Her attorneys backed her up on this saying she had wanted to help “friends with living expenses and debt relief” and never intended to provide “direct support” to any members of al-Shabaab.

According to her lawyers, Yusuf “discouraged the young men from engaging in martyrdom operations, such as suicide attacks but was otherwise supportive of their willingness to give up everything to fight against the Ethiopian troops and the transitional federal government of which she herself had been a victim.” (Her lawyers suggest she was sympathetic to al Shabaab, even if she opposed certain tactics of fighting.)

In December 2010, Yusuf was one of four Somalis being prosecuted for giving money to people in Somalia. Local Somalis skeptical of the prosecutions, like Bashir Hassan, expressed the feeling that the government was criminalizing Muslims.

Hassan urged federal prosecutors to understand that “most Somalis here regularly send money to their homeland.” He added, “People are starving. People don’t have food to eat. So if you have some extra bucks, you better send them so they can survive. So sending money is something routine to our community.”

An attorney defending an imam charged with supporting al Shabaab in Somalia declared, “I think Islamic giving, because that’s part of the religion, has given difficulties to the government because they don’t know how to deal with this…How can we stop Muslims from giving money? Because we really can’t attack their religion directly because that would blow up in our face.’ And I think these are politically motivated cases because really the government I don’t think wants Muslims to give.”

There does not appear to have been any intent to support the terrorism of al Shabaab proven in Yusuf’s case, but all the prosecutors had to prove was there was a transaction where money likely wound up in the hands of Shabaab fighters and that was enough for a conviction. In contrast, in the case of HSBC one wonders what the bank would have had to do to be prosecuted criminally for their actions and have executives go to jail. The Justice Department found they had violated the Trading with the Enemy Act—the act a bank would be convicted of violating if they were financing or providing material support to terrorism. Whether they intended to violate these acts or not, they did commit violations so at least some from HSBC should be facing the prospect of being sentenced to jail.

What if any of the HSBC bank executives involved in allowing or looking the other way had been Muslims?

In a 2009 report by the American Civil Liberties Union, the discriminatory enforcement against Muslim charities was highlighted the US government crackdown on Muslim charities for giving money to troubled areas where terrorism activities were believed to be occurring:

    Within the space of ten days in December 2001, the federal government froze the assets of the three largest Muslim charities in the United States—the Holy Land Foundation for Relief and Development, Global Relief Foundation, and Benevolence International Foundation—effectively shutting each of them down. The government seized these charities’ assets during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, at the height of annual Muslim charitable giving. These charities, which had been operating without incident for years—and for over a decade in the case of the Holy Land Foundation—were not on any government watch list before their assets were frozen. Indeed, before it was shut down the Holy Land Foundation had made repeated requests to government officials for assistance in complying with the law, only to be rebuffed.

The ACLU characterized this crackdown as the “start of a pattern of conduct that violated the fundamental rights of American Muslim charities.” And it “has chilled American Muslims’ charitable giving in accordance with their faith, seriously undermining American values of due process and commitment to First Amendment freedoms.” (The Holy Land Foundation case is particularly egregious. Five individuals are in prison now and their cases can be read about here.)

Depending on one’s ethnicity, religion, class or occupation, the system of justice (or injustice) in America is now that a major bank can settle for what in HSBC’s case was, according to Matt Taibbi, about two months’ worth of profits when they engage in terrorist financing or banking where money is being transferred to drug cartels.

Executives can expect pretty “swift justice” too. The Senate report that created headlines was put out in the summer and in less than six months the Justice Department had an agreement with a settlement worked out. Yusuf was charged in 2010, pled guilty about a year later and then was in confinement for another year before being sentenced for 8 years for giving a little over a thousand to some poor people she knew and wanted to help in Somalia, the country where she was born.

The overwhelming conclusion one can draw is there is no limit to the political will the Justice Department or Treasury Department has to crackdown on Muslims for charity. They will go to immeasurable lengths to conflate giving with financing of terrorism. Jewish and Christian organizations give to countries with ongoing conflicts in ways similar to Muslim organizations and do not face government prosecutions. On the other hand, the Justice Department and the Treasury Department have no political will to hold banks accountable for crimes of terrorist financing with groups that have ties to al Qaeda. They will bend over backwards to ensure there is an outcome where the bank appears to be brought to justice but is not broken in such a way that it cannot continue business as usual.

中国30%亿万富鄙视伟大祖国 争先恐后投奔美帝

中国 30%亿万富豪移民

（北京18日讯）根据最新的调查报告显示，中国个人资產逾一亿元人民幣（约4890万令吉）的富豪，有27%已移民、47%考虑移民。

这项调查还显示，中国个人资產逾1000万元人民幣（489万令吉）者，近60%人士已完成投资移民或有相关考虑。

综合中国媒体报导，中国与全球化研究中心、社会科学文献出版社，週一联合发佈《国际人才蓝皮书》「中国国际移民报告（2012）No.1」 时，公佈这项调查数据。

蓝皮书指出，中国正经歷第3次大规模的「海外移民潮」，投资移民已成为中国海外移民的重要组成部分；富裕阶层和知识精英正成为新一波移民主力 军，移民人口组成日益偏向中產阶层。

报告同时也指出，私人可投资资產达到1000万元人民 幣的中国富人中，有移民意愿的人数正不断增加中。

为子女教育移民

专家指出，这群富人热衷移民，目的是想寻求更优秀的教育资源、更安全的投资环境和更高的生活品质；有超过80%的富人最主要的移民原因是子女 教育。

保障財富安全则是投资移民考虑的第二大因素。报告称，新富阶层更倾向把財富转移到法律较能保护私人財產的国家。

报告称，介于中国转型时期，社会制度、体制的漏洞加上法律、道德与文化有所缺陷，造成了某些人以不合法手段获取財富，似乎暗指中国富人暗渡陈 仓將財富移转海外。

他们移民后，投资多集中在房地產、外幣存款和股票等领域。

蓝皮书指出，截至2012年3月，中国个人资產逾600万元（294万令吉）有270万人，平均年龄39岁。中国个人资產达到亿元人民幣以上 的「高净值人群」约6万3500人，平均年龄41岁。

报告指出，2011年中国对世界几个主要的移民国家永久性移民数量超过15万人，在美国获得永久居留权人数有8万7017人，在中国国际移民总数中排名第一； 加拿大、澳洲和纽西兰紧隨其后。

中国海外投资移民发展迅速，富人群体的快速崛起是其海外投资移民群体扩大的重要原因。

Malaysia Finally Shake Off  Kampong Champion Image

2010 年近2 千亿仅次中国 大马黑钱外流全球第二

根据全球金融廉正机构公布的非法资金外流报告显示，在 2010年大马共有643亿8000万美元（1966亿9000万令吉）非法资金外流，是10年来最高。

报告指出，大马成为中国之后，全球第二个资金外流最严重的国 家，2010年中国共有4203亿6000万美元（约1兆2842亿令吉）的黑钱外流。

总部设在美国华盛顿的全球金融廉正机构今年采取新评估方式， 把调查范围聚集在非法资金外流，因此，前年报告的数据也有所调整。

2009年，该机构估计大马有468亿6000万美元 （1433亿令吉）的黑钱流到国外，最新报告已调低至304亿1000万美元（930亿令吉）。

大马2010年黑钱外流比2009年多了超过1倍，2009 年黑钱外流是930亿令吉，2010年增加至1966亿9000万令吉。

由于未获得2011年及2012年数据，因此报告未纳入这两 年的估计。

这份题为“发展中国家外流的非法资金：2001至2010 年”报告，是由全球金融廉正机构首席经济学家德夫卡尔及经济学家莎拉撰写。

全球金融廉正机构警告，大马非法资金外流的程度是亚洲国家少 见的。

全球金融廉正机构 提倡系统透明化

全球金融廉正机构成立于2006年9月，是驻英国华盛顿的研 究及宣传组织，提倡全球金融系统透明化。

该机构促进国家和多边政策、保障及协议，旨在遏制非法资金跨 境流动。

全球金融廉正机构提出解决方案、促进战略合作伙伴关系，并进 行开创性的研究，致力打击非法资金外流，以加强全球发展。

6招打击黑钱外流

全球金融廉正机构提出的打击非法资金外流方法包括：

1.解决匿名空壳公司、基金及信托公司问题，要求证明银行及 证券户头实益拥有权，严格要求所有公司、基金及信托公司业主资料，确保依法成立。

2.改变海关及贸易协议，以便监测及削减错价贸易。

3.要求跨国公司各国的销售、盈利及缴税报告。

4.要求个人和商业账户税务资料自动跨境交换。

5.与各国金融行动特别小组合作，打击洗黑钱活动6.确保反 洗黑钱法令严格执法。

10年流出8714亿排第三

2001年至2010年，大马累积的非法资金外流高达2850亿美元（8714亿令吉），仅次于中国及墨西哥。

中国和墨西哥分别是2兆7400亿美元（约8兆3700 亿令吉）和4760亿美元（约1兆4542亿令吉）。

80.1%属贸易错误定价

全球金融廉正机构公布的最新报告指出，从发展中国家外流 出去的非法资金中，大约80.1%是属于贸易错误定价，而剩余20%则来自贪污。

贸易错误定价是指公司通过操弄集团内部的交易价格，把盈 利转移到海外避开征税。

“非法转移贪污、贿赂、盗窃和回扣所得，占据这10年外 流非法资金的19.9%，而其百分比也正在上扬当中。”

“罪案、贪污和逃税在2010年让发展中国家面对 8588亿美元的损失，仅比2008年历来最高的估计数据8713亿美元微低。”

亚洲最多非法资金外流

全球金融廉正机构表示，亚洲是最多非法资金外流的区域， 占10年累积外流黑钱的61.2%。

“事实上，世界十大非法资金外流的国家中，有5个是亚洲 国家，即中国、大马、菲律宾、印度和印尼。”

该机构说，世界有必要加强全球金融系统的透明度，以阻止 这些非法资金从发展中国家外流出去。

去年1月，首相兼财长拿督斯里纳吉曾表示，我国黑钱外流 问题严重一事应交由国行处理，财政部副部长拿督林祥才也否认大马非法资金外流问题严重。

当时，全球金融廉正机构发表的报告指我国外流的非法资金 激增，单在2008年就达到2081亿令吉（682亿美元），远远超过当年我国财政预算案的1769亿令吉拨款。

8年增三倍

报告说，大马外流的非法资金从2000年的677亿令吉 （222亿美元）增至2008年的2081亿令吉，即8年内增加三倍。

同年3月，纳吉在国会驳斥该机构的数据，他说，2000 年至2009年期间，我国因为错误与疏漏（E&O）外流的资金是1353亿令吉。

Chrysler Loves Motown

Given Chrysler’s “Imported From Detroit” tagline, we’re surprised this didn’t happen sooner — but, since “Motown: The Musical” is about to launch on Broadway, now apparently is the time to launch the new 2013 Chrysler 300 Motown Edition.
While it’s arguable that the SRT Viper or Jeep Grand Cherokee would be better models to spawn Motown-themed special editions  (both are actually built in Detroit; the 300 is assembled in Ontario), the 300 does serve as a large and luxurious canvas for a series of interior and exterior tweaks.
The Motown 300 starts with a stock 300, with the 3.6-liter Pentastar V-6 (292 hp) mated to Chrysler’s eight-speed automatic transmission. The car is available in four colors — bright white, gloss black, deep cherry red, and a new hue, jazz blue — and sits atop four 20-inch polished aluminum wheels. The gleaming wheels match the grille, with its seven horizontal chrome blades, and other chrome trim pieces on the front and rear fascias, rear-view mirror caps, exterior window trim, and door handles. The front quarter panels are emblazoned with Motown badges, lest anyone forget which edition 300 you’re driving.
Inside, the Motown 300 shows off a white and black color scheme: the interior is primarily trimmed in black, but highlighted with black olive ash wood trim, black soft touch material on the dashboard and doors, and piano black accents on the center stack and steering wheel. The seats, on the other hand, are upholstered in pearl white Nappa leather, and feature black piping and stripes.
A music-themed special edition car would be nothing without a little music, so Chrysler product planners gave the Motown 300 the Beats Audio sound system — complete with 10 speakers and two subwoofers — and included an SD card pre-loaded with 100 popular Motown songs on it. The whole system is controlled, of course, by Chrysler’s Uconnect 8.4-inch touchscreen display.
The Motown 300 goes on sale next spring at a starting price of $33,990 (including destination charges). Chrysler will also launch a new advertising campaign for the Motown 300 featuring — who else? –Motown Records founder Berry Gordy. Motown: the Musical, in the meantime, begins previews at Broadway’s Lunt-Fontanne Theatre on March 11, 2013.
Source: Chrysler

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Can China Be Fighting With So Many Of Her Neighbors And Win ?

China’s Other Territorial Dispute: Baekdu Mountain - But China Would Never Confront Russia

With disputes brewing in the East and South China Seas, there is another piece of contested territory in Asia that could pose some serious problems...


Last month, just one week after Barack Obama was reelected president in the U.S., the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) wrapped up its 18th Party Congress and elected a new seven member group to its elite Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC). The PBSC is the most important decision making body in China, and controls all essential elements of domestic and foreign policy. The new leadership in China faces a raft of challenges — both internal and external —which will help to determine its relationship with the U.S., Japan, Russia, India, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and others in the region.

On the foreign policy front, China continues to take a very assertive policy towards its neighbors on territorial disputes in the South China Sea (Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia, and Brunei) and the East China Sea (Japan). Moreover, China and India continue to take issue with each other over their contested claims to the Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh (administered by Beijing and New Delhi respectively). China has also failed to resolve a lingering dispute with the tiny mountain kingdom of Bhutan, and maintains another lesser known dispute with South Korea over the maritime rights over Socotra rock, a submerged rock in the Yellow Sea that both (as well as North Korea and Taiwan) claim falls under their exclusive economic zone (EEZ). Under international law, however, nations cannot claim submerged rocks as part of their territory.

Although China is often criticized for its intransigence on sovereignty disputes, it is far from the only stubborn party to them. For instance, in a little discussed row, China and North Korea have simmered over the jurisdiction surrounding Baekdu Mountain (referred to as Changbai Mountain in China). The site is a sacred area for many Koreans. Historical records point to Baekdu as the site where Korea’s first kingdom, Gojoseon, was established. The area is also important to modern North Korean history because the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) has glorified the site as the birthplace of its former Supreme Leader Kim Jong-Il (Soviet documents record his birth as having taken place in Russia). The mountain is also associated with Korea’s resistance movement against Japanese colonialism during World War II.

Baekdu, an active volcanic mountain, straddles the border between China and North Korea. Both sides agreed to split the land surrounding Baekdu in 1962 (some say 1963) and currently share administration over the mountain and the lake surrounding it.

Unfortunately, this agreement — which was signed during the Sino-Soviet dispute when Moscow and Beijing were both courting Pyongyang’s favor — has not put an end to the matter. In recent years Beijing has been rapidly developing the area including building an airport and ski resort, moves that some believe are aimed at bolstering its claims of sovereignty over the area. China stirred up further controversy in 2008 when it applied for the region to be considered a UN Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) World Heritage Site. Further inflaming the issue, there were reports around the same time that said Beijing was considering entering a bid to host the 2018 Winter Olympics on the contested site.

This is where the row gets knotted. South Korea, as the self-described legitimate government of all of the Korean Peninsula, also claims the Baekdu region and continues to insist that China refrain from exploiting the area and building up infrastructure there. At the 6th Winter Asian Games in Changchun, China in 2007, five South Korean ice skaters held up a sign during their awards ceremony claiming “Mount Baekdu is our territory.” This nationalist sentiment seems to be a recurring theme for South Korean athletes; at the Summer Olympics in London this year, a South Korean football player held up a sign declaring “Dokdo is our land” shortly after his team defeated the Japanese football squad.

The 1962/3 agreement, however, is more of a framework and does not comprehensively demarcate border lines. Consequently, the parties continue to dispute where the border actually rests. This matter is complicated by the fact that China and North Korea remain at loggerheads over their far eastern border. Pyongyang maintains a strategic 17 km border with Russia along the Tumen River. DPRK's sliver of land wedged alongside the Russia-China border effectively cuts off Beijing’s access to the Sea of Japan. Moscow and Pyongyang have resolved their border issues and agreed to a comprehensive border management treaty in July. This is especially crucial as both sides continue to explore potentially laying a natural gas pipeline from Siberia through the Korean Peninsula.

China has thus far been unwilling to negotiate on the sovereignty of the Changbai region, and will likely continue on this course. Beijing is happy to take advantage of the status quo on its border with North Korea because it understands that Pyongyang has little ability to thwart its advances. However, it will be increasingly difficult for China to pursue this policy in light of South Korea's growing nationalism on its territorial dispute with Japan. Moreover, the global microscope has turned its attention to the East and South China Seas amid a year of protests, diplomatic barbs and low-level maritime clashes. Whether it’s fair or not, Beijing’s rivals will continue to point to its large collection of territorial disputes, and its defiant approach on handling them, as evidence that China is not a peaceful actor in the region.

HERBALIFE:  Illegal Pyramid Scheme ?

Herbalife has responded to hedge fund manager Bill Ackman's epic three-hour long presentation of his short thesis for the company calling it a "malicious attack."

Ackman, who has an "enormous" short position on Herbalife, called the company a pyramid scheme. He also has a price target of $0 and believes the company will fail.

Here's the response from Herbalife:

The following is a statement from Herbalife in response to the Ackman presentation. Today's presentation was a malicious attack on Herbalife's business model based largely on outdated, distorted and inaccurate information. Herbalife operates with the highest ethical and quality standards, and our management and our board are constantly reviewing our business practices and products. Herbalife also hires independent, outside experts to ensure our operations are in full compliance with laws and regulations. Herbalife is not an illegal pyramid scheme.

Herbalife is a multi-level marketing company that sells nutritional and weight loss products. The stock has dived since Ackman confirmed his short on Wednesday. 

Nu Skin Stock Prices Getting Slammed After Herbalife Get Theirs

Another Stock With A Similar Business Model To Herbalife's Is Getting Slammed


As Bill Ackman makes the rounds presenting his thesis for why Herbalife, a nutrition company with a multi-level marketing scheme, is actually a pyramid scheme, another stock is floundering in the shadows — Nu Skin.

Nu Skin, another nutrition company, uses the same business model as Herbalife. That's why, back in May when notorious short-seller, David Einhorn got on Herbalife's call and smashed the stock by asking questions about its business model, Nu Skin got crushed as well.

From Barron's:

David Einhorn said nothing about Nu Skin, the multilevel marketing outfit whose shares tanked to $40 from $62 ahead of a May 16th conference where some had expected the hedge-fund celebrity to critique the company and its rival Herbalife..

...if you believe a defamation suit filed in a Salt Lake City state court, Nu Skin shares (NUS) fell after an ex-husband of founder Sandie Tillotson allegedly disparaged her to "Wall Street insiders." Tillotson is an executive vice present and the largest individual shareholder of Nu Skin, a Provo, Utah-based outfit that sells its beauty products through thousands of independent distributors. Like other multilevel sales operations, Nu Skin exhorts distributors to recruit others who will, in turn, recruit recruits devoted to ordering company products. However, as we reported in our earlier story, regulatory filings indicate that most distributors never make a profit.

The lack of profit is exactly what Einhorn suggested on his Herbalife call, asking:

"First is, how much of the sales that you'd make in terms of final sales are sold outside the network and how much are consumed within the distributor base?"

In short, if you believe Ackman and Einhorn's thesis, Nu Skin is a short, same as Herbalife. They have the same problem — vendors become consumers to the point that very little profit is made. Without more and more recruits, the jig is up.

It doesn't help that in the 1990s Nu Skin was fined twice by FTC for deceptive marketing complaints regarding its products intended to aid weightloss and cure baldness, either.

This would explain why the stock has been getting crushed since yesterday, down 9.06% since Ackman made his announcement.

Nu Skin stock


Nu Skin has its problems abroad too. In China, multi-level marketing schemes are illegal. That's why research firm Citron Research (known for targeting Chinese companies) is skeptical of Nu Skin's growth in the country will continue, even though CEO CEO Truman Hunt has said emerging markets will drive the company's growth.

Earlier this year  Nu Skin said that China comprised almost 75% of its year-over-year revenue growth in Q2 alone.

Citron published a report pointing all of this out in August of this year, and according to the WSJ, the stock subsequently fell 9.2%.

And there's political component to all of this as well. Nu Skin is a Mormon-owned company and was a huge supporter of Presidential candidate Mitt Romney. Now that he's not going to occupy the White House, Nu Skin could come under the scrutiny of regulators without the help of powerful friends who share ties to the Mormon Church.

From Fortune:

There's an old joke in the direct-selling business: MLM stands for "Mormons losing money." It's no coincidence that Latter-day Saints have a reputation as having a particular affinity for direct selling. Their missionary work, which requires knocking on doors, spreading a message, and recruiting followers, often in foreign countries, offers perfect training.

Nu Skin itself is an insular organization dominated by faith and family, blending the evangelical and the commercial. Top executives hold prominent positions in the Mormon church. Myriad relatives of the company's founders have played key roles...

The way things are going, though, investors could get to Nu Skin first, and crush the company just because of its association with the same business model as the highly publicized Herbalife short.

Definitely not a good shadow to be standing in.

Chrysler, Motown, Berry , Marvin And Tammi

Chrysler ad features Motown Records founder Gordy

DETROIT — Chrysler recruited hometown star Eminem for a memorable 2011 Super Bowl ad that introduced the tagline "Imported From Detroit."
The automaker is going back to that well with an ad campaign it launched Thursday relying on another homegrown entertainment figure: Motown Records founder Berry Gordy.
"We are Motown, and this is what we do," the 83-year-old Rock and Roll Hall of Famer says at the conclusion of the 60-second commercial that promotes both the new 2013 Chrysler 300 Motown Edition as well as an upcoming Broadway musical based on Gordy's life.
Gordy's line is a play on the Eminem spot that featured the rapper driving a sleek Chrysler through the streets of Detroit, proudly cruising by the city's landmarks. In his case, the journey ended at Detroit's Fox Theatre, where he pointed to the camera and defiantly stated: "This is the Motor City, and this is what we do."
The new ad features Gordy sitting in the backseat of a white Chrysler 300 Motown, which is parked outside the "Hitsville, U.S.A." building in Detroit. Set to the Marvin Gaye-Tammi Terrell version of "Ain't No Mountain High Enough," the ad shows Gordy being driven through the streets of Detroit and eventually ending up in front of New York's Lunt-Fontanne Theatre, where "Motown: The Musical" will begin its run of preview performances March 11 ahead of the official opening on April 14.
Figuring in the 2-minute "Halftime in America" ad that starred Clint Eastwood and ran during the 2012 Super Bowl, Chrysler now has churned out three pro-Detroit ads featuring entertainment heavyweights in a 22-month span.
"Our collaboration with Motown Records elevates our passion to express our Detroit roots further," said Saad Chehab, president and CEO of the Chrysler brand.
Around the same time "Motown: The Musical" makes its debut, so will the Motown-themed Chrysler 300, which has a starting price of $32,995 excluding shipping. The limited-edition sedan also comes loaded with 100 tracks from original Motown recording artists and features the Motown logo on the front seatbacks.
"Motown: The Musical" stars Brandon Victor Dixon as Gordy and Valisia LeKae as Motown star Diana Ross. Gordy is producing and writing the book for the show, and he also penned a few original songs for it.
___

Online:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L1NCSrwa2Us

YouTube

我们为中南海做间谍

美外资委报告暗示警惕 中国在美投资

中海油购买加拿大尼克森的行动在美国引起不安

美国外国投资委员会星期四（12月20日）向国会提交报告说，美国情报界相信，某些国家正在通过并购美国公司的手段获取美国技术。

外国投资委员会是美国政府的一个跨机构委员会，负责评估外国投资对美国国家安全构成的潜在影响。


这个委员会在提交给国会的最新年度报告中说，美国情报界有相当的把握认为，“一个或多个外国政府或公司”正试图购买那些在关键技术的研究、发 展和生产方面处于领先地位的美国公司。

这份报告公开发表的版本并没有点出任何国家的名字，但是据报另有一份机密版本已经送交给了美国国会。

中海油并购计划

美国外国投资委员会目前正在对中国海洋石油总公司购买加拿大尼克森公司的计划进行评估。

加拿大政府已经批准了这项计划，但是美国外国投资委员会正在考虑是否允许中海油涉足尼克森在美国墨西哥湾的油田。

人们注意到，美国政府官员一直公开批评中国政府逼迫在中国进行商业活动的美国公司向中方转移关键技术，而美国商界也抱怨中国公司越来越多地通 过计算机攻击手段窃取美国商业机密。

上个月，美国国会建立的美中经济与安全评估委员会敦促国会对中国的互联网间谍活动展开深入调查，并且考虑对这类活动的受益公司采取严厉的处罚 措施。

这个委员会还要求美国有关当局加强对所有中国国有企业的投资进行审查。

日本人為何沒有權利

去自保？

日本鷹派之再起

 

日本眾議會改選，執政的民主黨大敗，議席由 230 席跌到只餘 57 席，在野的老牌霸主自民黨，則由 118 席，急升至 294 席，超過國會半數，再聯同長期和自民黨同盟的公明黨，自民。

公明聯盟佔有日本國會過三分之二的議席，再加上有石原慎太郎坐鎮的維新會，也奪下了 54 席，對日本民族主義者來說，想廢除或修改二戰以來的「和平憲法」，其形勢前所未有的「樂觀」，只餘下參議院最後一關。

話說回頭，為甚麼日本人會願意投這些被我們認為屬鷹派的政黨，以至「軍國主義」的主張呢？除了說對方是邪惡，以及大罵日本人，再高談和日本不 免一戰之外，我們有否試過從日本人的角度，去思考為何這些主張在日本廣受歡迎？

對日本人來說，第二次世界大戰，是將近七十年前的事情，而日本的軍國主義，是上一個世代的債務，對於今日的他們來說，為何他國人民仍然要反 日？美化自己的歷史，好多國家例如中共也在做啊，為何中共國的人民，可以容許自己 的政府篡改歷史，卻不容他國效法呢？

又從另一個角度看，朝鮮半島的軍事對抗，就是長期貼身威脅日本的問題，七十年代至八十年代期間，北韓曾多次派人去日本綁架，近十幾廿年，則是 試射導彈，多 次射向日本海，甚至越過國本的領土，而眾所周知，北韓的好朋友，就是北京的中共政府，兩國的意識形態相近，曾經在戰爭之中互相幫忙，更加是獨 裁專制政權， 而兩國都藉著煽動國內的民族主義，去轉移人民對內政的不滿！那麼對日本人來說，為何戰敗接近七十年，他們的國家仍然沒有權利去自保？為何他們「保家衛國」 仍然要依賴美國人鼻息？日本人的所謂鷹派──如代表人物石原慎太郎，除了和中國、南北韓有所衝突，其實也同時反對美國，著名的作品《日本 可以說不》，就是 要對美國說不，這點經常被華文傳媒有意忽略。

當年希特拉得以在德國崛起，就是藉著反對規管德國的《凡爾賽和約》；正正就是因為和約限制德國的軍備，令德國國內人民憤憤不平，認為單單規管 德國，而外國 卻任意興建軍備，就是欺負戰敗的德國。和德國不一樣的是，今日的德國強大而沒有外敵威脅，而日本卻面對著北韓與中共強大的武力威脅；因此日本 人的憂患意 識，即建基於隨時受到北韓攻擊，甚至中共和北韓聯手夾擊的假設之上。

正如物理學的牛頓第三定律，作用力等如反作用力，東亞愈多「反日」的聲音，愈多領土的主權爭議，除了反日各國國內的民族主義潮流之外，也會製 造日本國內的民族主義的幽靈，這是必然而且無可疑免的。

民族主義是雙面刃，是互相毀滅的力量，早在第一次世界大戰已經證明，強調愛國最終只會帶來戰爭；當我們要求 日本人正視歷史，不去修改和平憲法，以至再向七 十年前所欠的債再三道歉賠償之時，我們也必須正視今日東亞各國的現實──例如北韓會不會失控？ 中共面對經濟困難時，會不會變成軍人干政，例如如薄系等可能 發動的政變？如果我們都不能公平面對自己的問題，又如何要求對方先做呢？這一點，值得所有民族主義者再三思量

KCPO - The Bulls May Have Arrived-12/24/2012

 A new buy signal came last Monday when price gapped above the bottom band with the Stochastic crossing above its 20's signal line. Prices drifted down for the next 3 days before performed another shock and awe 88 points up penetrating and closed above the top band. By which that is offering another buy signal. I would add on my long position on the coming Monday if price goes above 2410. The Stochastic, MACD and DMI are now in unison of turning positive. The ADX continues to fall which further confirm the end of the prior bearish trend.

As discussed here last week, the daily chart is XXX bullish with the rare triple bottoms and bullish divergence. This may be the beginning of a new strong bull cycle. It will be even more reassuring when the MACD crosses up above its zero signal line.


The weekly chart finally making a turn away from bearishness. Both the Stochastic and MACD are trying to make a turnaround. The most promising item is the ADX has now gone above the DMI which is confirming that this market is oversold. Price has managed to close above the bottom band with the Stochastic turning positive. If I am trading the weekly chart, I would only buy in the coming week when if price is above to go above 2410. Of course a more comforting confirmation would be having the Stochastic crossing up above its 20's signal line. At least for now we may be witnessing the beginning of a new bull cycle.

Last week there were more bearish opinions in the media from fundamental experts  on KCPO. They always base their arguments on stock levels, export figures etc. When I first begun trading KCPO market some 14 years ago, I quickly learnt some bitter lessons (means losing tons of money) that I cannot trade futures market with fundamental statistics and assumptions. Charts always tell us what the big boys are doing before they become news. Of course sometimes some out of blue thing happens (like 9-11) which will put off what the charts have been hinting, but their course will soon re-emerges.


I would want to wish everybody  a very prosperous and happy Christmas and New Year with good health. I hope 2012 has been good to you and may the coming new year be an even better one.