KCPO:- Market Is  still Waiting For A BIG One - 9/12/2011

Even though I have been thinking that this market is getting increasing bullish but I also recognize that the new trend has NOT kicked in yet. This is because prices have been caught within the Bollinger upper and lower bands and the ADX continues to fall. The ADX may even go below its current 20's level. The DMI also looks "strange" as while the D- is falling, so is the D+ (they "normally" do opposite direction) . This usually develop into a "wiggling" effect. Though the MACD is positive and continues its ascent, the Stochastic seems to be dipping its head and may be falling again. If this is so, then we will have another confirmation of a listless market with the contradicting indicators.

I am paying attention to the "squeezing" Bollinger Band as this usually predict an explosive move in the near future.

 

The weekly chart continues to improve. The Stochastic has turned positive and begun to rise. It should cross up above its 20's signal line by the coming week. Please take note the Stochastic has already formed a minor bullish divergence with the prices' lows. The MACD seems to be turning around, but currently its remains negative. The ADX is giving confusing signal as it has restarted to rise though no new selling emerged. But as long as it stays above the DMI, I continue to read it as the market is oversold. By the coming week, if Stochastic can stage a cross up above its 20's with prices stay above the lower Band, I would take it as an initial buy signal and if price can go above its recent fractal high of 3164, I would start some serious buying.

Technically speaking I continue to stay X bullish about this market, "fundamentally"  CPO traditionally rises with the USD. It will be interesting to watch whether history will repeat itself this time.