Thursday, September 7, 2023

The “forever wars.” - Syria’s civil war

How to Lose a Civil War: Lessons for Afghanistan and Syria | RAND 

 Syria’s civil war: Two rival U.S.-backed militias in eastern Syria have engaged in clashes for the past week, in an area where 900 U.S. soldiers remain stationed four years after the military defeat of the Islamic State in 2019. The fighting, which has left more than 90 people dead and scores wounded, pits Kurdish forces against Arab-led fighters. It risks opening the door to a reemergence of the Islamic State, but also to the return of the Syrian government’s presence and influence in the area.  

 The Syrian civil war has largely dropped off the radar for most of the world. As Paul Poast wrote last September, many Americans are not even aware the U.S. military is still engaged in Syria, making it the “forgotten war” of the post-9/11 “forever wars.” But while the front lines in the conflict have remained largely stable and violence has diminished in the past few years, the underlying political conflicts that led to the war in the first place are nowhere near to being resolved. Given the continued presence of outside powers—including Russia and Turkey, in addition to the U.S.—that means that what seems to have become a “cold” conflict could easily heat up again, as Alexander Clarkson wrote last June.

The fighting in eastern Syria takes place against the backdrop of protests that have sprung up around the country in the past month due to an ongoing economic crisis and repeated currency devaluations. Combined with a lack of reconstruction, that has left most Syrians in desperate straits, as Elizabeth Tsurkov explained in March. While regional governments have increasingly made their peace with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, the past week’s fighting and the protests across the country highlight that Syria’s civil war is far from over.

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