FCPO - Are We Near The End Of Bear Cycle ? - 5/12/2014

 
The market failed to go further down but instead has been hugging below the bottom band and around the all important 2573 support line for the whole of last week. I decided to change my stop to the prior day high from now onwards. This is because the Stochastic has now gone below the 20's level and seems to be trying to make a turnaround. The MACD seems to be doing same too. The ADX has stopped rising for the past 2 days and gone flat at 23's.

All these may be an encouraging sign for the bull as the 2573 seems to be holding up. For the past one week, whenever that level is broken, price seems always went back up and close above it on the next day. But I am beginning to get a little excited over this as IF MACD can successfully turn back upward , it would mean a positive divergence has been formed and this would mean the market may be getting ready for another new massive push up.

At this moment, sellers seem to have exhausted themselves as the D- is coming down from above 30's but the buyers have not show up yet as the D+ has been flat and below the 20's level.

Summarily the current game plan may be changed and I  begin to look forward for a new bull cycle. Nothing is confirmed yet but the there are already initial signs written in. If price can get back above 2609, things will definitely get interesting.


 
The current week's Japanese Candlestick failed to confirm the previous week's Engulfing Candlestick's hint of a possible reversal. So I would have to wait for what comes out after the coming week action ended. But another strange thing is happening here is at the DMI. Please take note though the D+ is still falling (means buyers quitting) but the D- is also falling which mean the sellers are also quitting. But since the MACD and Stochastic stay negative and falling, the game plan is still bearish biased. The 2573 support remain important, so will be the bottom band support of 2561.

Last Friday, the US Dollar Index staged a dramatic breakout after a double bottom formation and positive divergence. Since historically FCPO has been mimicking the Dollar, so it would be interesting to watch and trade whether this time will be the same.