FCPO - Getting Excited As If Watching Pamela Anderson Getting Undress - 8/19/2013

 
The bottom band provided a good support as price went to test that level but quickly reversed up. The Japanese Candlestick formed a bullish engulfing pattern on 12/8 after went tested the bottom band. And it formed a Rising window candlestick on the next day. I usually regard these two Candlesticks to be those exceptional bullish signs. This is especially the rising window candlestick was able to close above the top band. With this I decided to add onto my long positions.

Now all the 3 indicators are positive and rising. The MACD is getting increasing nearer to its zero signal line. If upon crossing above it , I would take it as the beginning of a new bull cycle. But since the Stochastic has already entered into the overbought zone (I read it as overbought because the ADX is still falling , so that there is no confirmation of a trend in play yet. Without that, I would still have to pay attention to the Oscillator indicator as my guide to trading this market) , so I would expect some retracement or sideway moves before the real action comes on again. When the DMI turned positive on 15/8 and the following price went higher than the signal day high, it confirmed another new buy signal.

 
The weekly chart has turned toward a more bullish biased reading. Price has managed to close above the bottom band with the Stochastic turned positive. So if I am trading the weekly chart, I would engage new long position when if price can go above 2336 in the coming week. The MACD is also trying to turn around with its head tilting up. I am watching this indicator intensely as it is relatively "nearer" to its zero signal line. A crossing above that line would signal the beginning of a new bull cycle. And of course, if it can turn positive again, it would mean we have another new bullish divergence formed. And if you have been reading my past essays for the past few months, you would know I have been getting extremely bullish about this market.

Many of the commodities market seems to be making a comeback for the bulls. This is partly due to the recent climate which is affecting the production. But I think there may be another  reason for this turnaround and that is the EU may be near a turning around point too. If their economy improves, people assume consumption of various commodities should also rise. Of course if you have been trading the financial markets long enough, you would know people's perception is usually stronger than the real fundamentals. Anyway it looks like we may at least witness a new up cycle for many for many of the commodities and I hope that will help to propel the FCPO market.