Emerging Markets Still Think They Can Be Different
Emerging Markets: What Has Changed
1) Mexican data is taking a decisive turn for the worse
2) Brazil is stepping up intervention in FX and fixed income
markets
3) The Turkish central bank unexpectedly raised the top end of the
corridor by 50 bp to 7.75%
4) Peru got upgraded
5) India will now try a bond buyback program
6) In Indonesia will announce a new economic package on Friday
1) Mexican data is taking a decisive
turn to the worse. First
came the dismal Q2 GDP at -0.7% q/q vs. exp. +0.2%, the first
quarterly decline since mid 2009. Then June retail sales plunged
-1.9% (exp. -0.4%). Still, local rates (TIIE) have not reacted
very much, taking cues from US Treasury yields instead. If the
negative data continues, it will of course put a cut by Banxico
back in play. For now, however, we very much doubt any easing is
forthcoming, especially given the sell-off in the currency.
2) Brazil is stepping up intervention in FX and fixed income
markets. So far, these actions have provided only temporary
relief. This week, the Treasury announced an extraordinary buyback
operation (for LTN and NTN-F bonds) as an attempt to provide some
liquidity to the market. This is the first such operation since
the June stage of the selloff. In addition, the central bank came
in with more FX swap auction and offers of FX credit lines. This
follows BCB President Tombini’s step up in rhetoric earlier in the
week, suggesting “recent movement seen in interest rates in the
market has incorporated excessive premium.” With local rates now
pricing in SELIC rates rising to nearly 11.0%, we tend to agree
with him – though much depends on where BRL stabilizes. As it
stands, we don’t think the measures are enough to stem the bearish
mood.
3) The Turkish central bank unexpectedly raised the top end of
the corridor by 50 bp to 7.75%. We had highlighted this risk
already and agree that the extra room to tighten could come in
handy. The bank subsequently announced that it would keep offering
liquidity only at the upper end of the corridor (i.e. “special
day”) until further notice. On top of this, there will still be
$100 mln in FX sales during these extraordinary days. There was
little reaction in lira so far, which has fallen in line with
other high-beta EM currencies.
4) Peru got upgraded. The country’s long-term foreign
currency rating was raised by S&P to ‘BBB+’ and long-term
local currency rating to ‘A-‘ with a stable outlook based on the
“country’s ability to withstand external shocks including
establishing a Fiscal Stabilization Fund and building
international reserves.” There is not much reaction in foreign
debt markets to the news. The central bank is doing what it what
it can to stabilize the sol, selling as much as £350 mln in an
operation this week. The currency has preformed relatively well,
falling just 1.5% this month.
5) India will now try a bond buyback program. The
government stated it will attempt to “ease” liquidity and spiking
interest rates by buying longer-dated government debt. According
to the statement, the bank will purchase the equivalent of $1.3
bln on Friday and “thereafter calibrate them both in terms of
quantum and frequency” based on market condition. The bank will
raise the interest rate paid on foreign currency deposits for non
residents, in a (probably futile) bid for capital inflows. The
good news is that yields in India are well off their highs earlier
in the week. The yield on 5-years swaps, for example, fell to
8.58% from a high of 9.22% on Monday.
6) In Indonesia will announce a new economic package on Friday.
In addition, Coordinating Min Rajasa said that BI was watching the
market and preparing a policy response. Direct intervention has
been timid with no big measures to contain volatility aside from
FX swap auctions every Thursday. Also note that the bond buying is
still going on, amounting to IDR 31trn worth of bonds in 2013, and
that the Treasury has plans to issue more foreign bond soon to
boost FX reserves. Separately, the country’s two main state
pension funds announced they would increase their purchases of
local stocks after the recent selloff.