Rampant Boasting From Korean Leaders Doesn't Measure Up To Reality
The final "cutting" of communications ties is just one act in a
recent history of posturing on behalf of both country's leaders.
South Korea (ROK) President Park Geun-hye tore into office this
year swearing to her constituents that any provocation on behalf
of the North would be met with a ferocious response.
Her generals have made various boasts themselves, one even to
destroy the DPRK's coveted dictator statues. Presumably she gave
them the "go" to do so.
With a father who actually seized power in a coup, who can blame
her? As a conservative, she occasionally reinforced the idea that
the South Korean response to the 2010 shelling of ROK islands was
completely lame. Most of the populace agreed with her, apparently.
Meanwhile, 30-year-old Kim Jong-Un dismisses her boasts, which she
apparently makes with "a poisonous swish of the skirt."
It's no surprise the Kim-regime resorted to "skirt" talk. The
new(ish) leader may still be eager to prove himself man enough for
command in a room bristling with the DPRK's military generals (who
might just try to step in on Kim).
A tidal wave of recent headlines might indicate that the
combination of tough talk from the two leaders might turn light
skirmishes into heavy skirmishes into "all out war."
Let's hope not.
Upon inspection, the most prudent response to the 2010 shelling
was exactly what South Korea did, which was not much.
Most think tanks and analysts agree that the sacrifice of a few
soldiers and no territory is much better than a war that at best
would result in the collapse of North Korea, followed by a
scramble to secure loose nukes and take care of a newly-liberated
starving populace.
Because let's be honest: the DPRK isn't even remotely the biggest
guy on the playground in terms of advanced weaponry. Its
Vietnam-era jets and hardware are no match for South Korea (much
less the U.S.) due to total lack of modernization and a plaguing
lack of "spare parts, fuel and maintenance." Furthermore, their
pilots put in a paltry single-digit amount of training hours per
year.
About the only military equipment in somewhat working order is
their artillery and their short range missiles — though granted,
the artillery could deal significant damage to Seoul in the time
it would take to mitigate the threat.
As for the North's long range rockets — if they even make it off
the ground — without ultra-technical guiding systems, they are the
global equivalent of trying to shoot a friend in your yard with a
tube and a bottle rocket.
(A friend who happens to have cutting edge advanced warning and
missile interception systems.)
That leaves really the possibility of a skirmish, likely initiated
on behalf of the North. It's possible that ROK Prez Park would
like to back up her boasting, but she can't even do that.
The recent pact between the U.S. and the ROK stipulates American
command of joint forces in the event of a "low-level action such
as a limited cross-border incursion."
Luckily, talk is cheap, and the alternative is unlikely.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.