Global South’s neutrality on the Putin's war has reached a point of diminishing returns

 

 War in Ukraine: Russia attacked Ukraine’s main inland port on the Danube River, directly across the river from NATO member Romania. The move sent global food prices even higher, as Moscow continues to target Ukraine’s ability to export grain.

 Ukraine had ramped up its usage of the Danube as an alternate route for exports since Moscow pulled out of the Black Sea grain deal in mid-July. Since then, Russia’s targeting of this port, as well as others, shows that Moscow is not backing down on its decision to undermine that deal and curtail Ukrainian grain exports more broadly.

The targeting of this port, and the timing of the attack, is still surprising, though, considering how poorly last week’s Russia-Africa summit went for President Vladimir Putin. Several leaders from Africa leveraged their positions of neutrality to publicly pressure Putin over the grain deal at the summit. This latest attack could jeopardize Russia’s ties with those leaders, whose populations will now suffer even more as a result of rising food prices.

Russia’s doubling-down could signal that Putin feels the value of the Global South’s neutrality on the war has reached a point of diminishing returns. If so, he could soon find out if he is right, as deliberately sending food prices even higher could be the tipping point that pushes some leaders in Africa to take a more vocal position against Russia when it comes to the war in Ukraine.