FCPO - An Intermediate Term Sell Signal ! - 3/31/2014

The short position remains intact as did not go back above the bottom band. The Stochastic is now below the 20's zone and as price has already achieved the 61.85 Fibonacci retracement level of its last cycle, so I would want to get my stop a nit tighter from now onwards. Instead of the bottom band, I am switching it to the prior day low.

The MACD has now fallen below its zero signal line which is dangerous for the longer term bull. The DMI stays negative with the ADX turning flat the past 3 sessions. This could mean the market may be getting ready for a new cycle. This is also bad news for the bull. Overall the market would need to get back up at soonest in order for the bull to stay intact.

 
The weekly chart has flashed a new sell signal as the Stochastic has crossed below 80's signal line. And price is now closed below the top band. Both these 2 are complimenting each other for a new sell signal. Even the slow reacting MACD has now turned negative. The DMI stays positive but the ADX has stopped rising and turned flat, this may be telling us the prior bullish trend has ended. There is a minor bearish divergence at the Stochastic, so if this market is to sink, the move could be substantial.


 

The monthly chart is still in the bull's favor as the Stochastic and MACD stay positive and rising. But price has now closed below the top band. With the falling ADX, I would say this market is range bounding for now.

If the weekly chart continues to deteriorate , then we may see the bull cycle ended at 2,900+ (my minimum upside target)  Though there is still nothing seriously bearish about this market, but we may still it going another round of massive selling before we can get back to the bullish talk.