FCPO - It IS Still Waiting For A Lead - 1/27/2014

 
The market continues to go higher. The Stochastic crossed above its 20's signal line on last Monday which effectively confirmed a buy signal. I bought in on the next day when price went above the signal day high. I am now using the bottom band as my stop and if price fails to go further up, then it may be prudent to switch the stop to prior day low or lightly below the middle band. The Stochastic continues to rise and it is now crossing above its 50's signal line, this is adding points to the bull. The MACD has turned positive and rising. I would need to see it crossing up above its zero signal line before having confidence to call a return of the bull. Another merit to the buyer is that price has managed to close above the middle band. The DMI has begun to act strange as both the D+ and D- are both declining at the same time. This is quite rare but it is telling us there is no real strength in the market as both the buyers and sellers are taking a back step. But the falling ADX confirms that the prior sell cycle has ended. But its descent to the 20's level is also telling us the market is going into another sideway mode.

At the time writing the nearest fractal high is at 2669, so we would need to see price goes above that level in order to be confirmed of a real bull market. Of course with prices consolidating the past few days, we may get a new fractal high soon. I will probably get to discuss about this on the coming week.

 
The weekly chart's  Stochastic and MACD remain negative. The only possible "silver lining" for the bull is that both of them has stopped falling and went flat. So this may mean the bull may still has some chances to fight for another day. The DMI stays positive with the D+ expanding outwards again, this is telling us that the buyers are flexing their muscle again. The falling D- means the sellers are getting out. As for the Japanese Candlestick, there is nothing to excite me yet as the current week's Candlestick has not able to close above the last black Candlestick. If we solely reading the Japanese Candlestick pattern trading , there is no confirmed reversal formation here. I would need to see price closes above the top band to get exciting again for the buy side. Meanwhile the all important 2485 support must hold.

I think this market wants to take a hint from the US Dollars , but unfortunately it has not been forthcoming any sooner as it has been wishy washy about its own next course of direction. I find this is very strange as most of the emerging currencies have been collapsing , is there any other logical choice out there ? But oh well, we just to wait patiently.

The Year Of Horse is just days away, I would like to wish all my friends and visitors a very Profitable and Blissful New Year with Excellent Good Health.