KCPO - Market Goes Sideway -2/25/2013

 
The last trade was relatively short lived and ended with small losses as price went back above th top band which effectively hit my stop. Everytime when this kind of trade situation happens, I would want to know where the ADX is. The ADX has gone flat since last Monday . With that I know the market has trned listless so I would be careful with the next trade signal. A new buy signal flashed on last Wednesday when the Stochastic turned positve with price above the top band, but it failed to pass my filter of buy the next day when if price goes above the signal day high. But instead price went below the top band again on the next day, but again it did not complete as a sell signal because the Stochastic stays positive.

The Stochastic is positive but the MACD stays negative on top of a flat ADX at 20's. All added up to a classic confirmation of a "dead" market. 


 
The weekly chart's Stochastic and MACD are still rising. As I have mentioned in my earlier essays here, even though the  MACD has performed a so called "golden cross", it does not necessarily mean that market will move up. I would need to see where the crossing occur, if it happens "far " from its zero signal line (as in the case here) , the so called "golden cross" is usually bring little joys to the bulls. This is where many market analysts make a wrong interpretion on the golden or death crosses. though price is below the top band but the indicators are not lending a confirmation, so there is no new sell signal.

Price is testing the top band again but failed to close above it by a small margin. So I would watch the coming week's price action closely to see whether it can close back aboe the top  band of 2535. If they can, then it will be another new buy signal. The other item remains the same as last week:- ADX is still falling above DMI which still means the prior sell cycle has ended. But the Bollinger Band has stopped contracting, so the sideway mode may be ending.