FKLI:- Picture Is Still Muddled - 4/11/2011

I was commenting the current trend in this market is just a small one as the ADX is below 20's, so I would keep my stop 2 points below the previous day low. With that I exited my long position on last Tuesday and did not wanted to do anything after that as price did not do below the upper Bollinger Band which would give me a reason to sell again. But it did break a new high on last Thursday , so I was thinking of buying in at 2 points above prior high which the market did not fulfill.

The Stochastic is crossing down in the overbought zone, I am waiting for it to cross down the 80's and prices going below the upper Band to sell again. I am paying more attention to the Stochastic since the ADX has gone flat again. The flat ADX is telling us the market may be getting into listless mode again. At this moment a negative Stochastic and a positive MACD is also confirming a sideway market. But since the MACD is still positive and above its zero line, I am still a bit bullish biased at this moment.

                                                              

The weekly chart Stochastic continues to rise and the MACD seems to be turning the corner though it is still negative. Previous week prices closed above the upper band which was bullish, though last week price managed to stay above the band but it becomes a Doji candlestick which is telling us the market has been undecided. As long price can stay above the band, I would remain bullish biased. The positive DMI (D+ above D- ) is supporting this.

Though both the daily and weekly charts seem to simmerly bullish but I remain cautious on the bearish divergence. As I said last week, the market's bigger picture becomes muddled,  with the EUR, AUD and NZD taking an upper hand over the USD, my convictions on the USD's bull is now been challenged. I need another 1-2 weeks to form a new opinion as to whether there is a new big picture or is it staying the same as last.