Implications of Prolonged Unrest in Iran for Pakistan

    Implications of Prolonged Unrest in Iran for Pakistan

At a time when Pakistan is grappling with a volatile situation along its Afghan border, instability on the Iran-Pakistan border will add to its problems.

Following the U.S.-Israel joint attacks on Iran since February 27 and the assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Hosseini Khamenei, there is a real danger of conflict morphing into a broader regional crisis in West Asia with far-reaching repercussions for countries like Pakistan with significant Shia populations.

Despite Khamenei’s elimination, the Iranian regime remains resilient, and it is expanding the scope of war by closing the Straits of Hormuz, the world’s most critical maritime chokepoint, where roughly 20 percent of global oil and liquified natural gas shipments pass. Likewise, by targeting major airports in West Asia, Iran has successfully disrupted global air traffic passing through the region.

After damaging Iran’s nuclear facilities and eliminating most of the top political and military leaders, the U.S. and Israel are now focusing on destroying the Shia state’s missile program and its military command and control structures. Hence, the conflict is likely to persist, and the U.S. and Israel will rely on airpower to achieve their objectives. Given Iran’s large size, they will not put boots on the ground, without which regime change is not possible. However, they will rely on indirect methods of destabilizing Iran by arming and supporting Kurdish and Baloch groups.

Although the Iranian regime is resilient enough to weather these pressures, its future will largely depend on the way it deals with the current crisis and, later, the way it bridges internal gaps that have emerged between state and society.

Instability in one country rarely stays within its boundaries and often spills over into neighboring states, especially when the borders are porous. The rapidly evolving situation in Iran, notwithstanding the final outcome, will have serious implications for Pakistan’s economy, internal security, border management and sectarian harmony. Pakistan is carefully observing the situation in Iran while it is engaged in a conflict with the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. Pakistan’s entire western frontier is extremely volatile right now, while on the eastern front, there is an uneasy calm with the arch-rival India following the May 7-11 armed conflict.

Following the news of Khamenei’s death, violent protests broke out in Pakistan. Angry protesters tried to ransack American consulates in Karachi, Lahore and Islamabad. Police had to use tear gas and batons to disperse the crowds. As many as 20 protesters have died in these protests. Meanwhile, in Skardu, Shia protesters torched the office of the United Nations’ military observers and the UNDP.

Pakistan is home to a large number of Shia Muslims, comprising 15-20 percent of the total population. Iran holds a significant spiritual position among Pakistan’s Shia population as the spiritual center of the Shia Muslim world. So, prolonged instability in Iran will have far-reaching consequences for Pakistan’s sectarian harmony. Every year, thousands of Shia Muslims travel to Iran to visit shrines there.

In the past, Pakistan has been a victim of tit-for-tat sectarian violence, and the country has paid a steep price in blood and treasure to overcome sectarian militancy. Its revival due to unrest in Iran will reverse Pakistan’s hard-earned counterterrorism gains, especially at a time when the country is taking bold measures to eradicate the threat from the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).

Pakistan shares a 900-kilometer-long border with Iran. There are deep-rooted cross-border ties between ethnic Baloch populations in the two countries. The Sistan-Balochistan and Balochistan provinces in Iran and Pakistan, respectively, are witnessing ethno-separatist insurgencies. If the Iranian regime’s grip on Sistan-Balochistan weakens due to ongoing conflict, Baloch ethno-separatist groups will likely fill that vacuum. As a result, Sistan-Balochistan could become a staging ground for more ferocious attacks in Pakistan’s Balochistan province.

Following the Iran-Israel war from June 13-24 last year, the Baloch Liberation Army-Azaad (BLA-A) faction’s head Hyrbyair Marri presented a charter of an independent Greater Balochistan some months later. Similar propaganda narratives could re-emerge if a prolonged period of instability befalls Iran.

At the same time, jihadist groups could expedite their violent activities by exploiting people’s grievances to advance their ideological agendas. Jihadist groups like the Islamic State of Khorasan Province (ISKP), al-Qaida and TTP have been trying to expand their footprints in Balochistan. The instability in Iran would divert Pakistani security resources towards managing border security and could create an opening for the jihadist groups to grow their networks in Balochistan.

While ISKP is using Balochistan to revive its networks, TTP has been winning over the loyalties of Baloch militant factions to expand in the province’s Pashtun areas. These trends will compound security challenges for Pakistan and result in an uptick of violence. At a time when Pakistan is dealing with a volatile border security situation with Afghanistan over TTP’s cross-border sanctuaries, instability on the Iran-Pakistan border will be a humongous challenge.

On the economic side, Pakistan’s annual trade with Iran stands at $3 billion. This trade is largely conducted through barter and local currency arrangements. Unrest in Iran would negatively affect Pakistan’s key exports. A reduction in trade with Iran would have consequences for Pakistan’s energy supplies, border economies and regional connectivity. It will encourage illegal economic activity across the Iran-Pakistan border. Given Balochistan’s large size, the economies of Baloch districts near the Iran-Pakistan border are more linked to Iran than Pakistan. However, traffickers, smuggling networks and other non-state actors will benefit from the war economy.

Geopolitically, Pakistan will have to walk a tight diplomatic rope so long as the military confrontation persists. While Pakistan enjoys cordial ties with Iran, after years of tension marked by mistrust and recriminations, it has revived its relationship with the U.S. Diplomatic neutrality and astute strategic awareness will be required to navigate the U.S.-Israel’s hostility with Iran. Pakistan should reiterate the need for negotiations to settle issues and oppose any unilateral move to topple the regime in Iran.

The start of 2026 has come with wicked diplomatic and security challenges for Pakistan. Against this backdrop, collective decision-making on key foreign policy issues based on consensus forged through the parliament will be critical in navigating them.
 

By Abdul Basit