Germany’s foreign minister suggested this week that
Germany cannot send more of its own weapons to Ukraine because it has
deficient supplies. If this story is true, it means that Germany, with
the largest economy in Europe, does not have the facilities to rapidly
produce more weapons – despite pledging money for the production of
weapons for Ukraine. The money matters, but only to an extent. The
capacity of other NATO countries to provide weapons to Ukraine has
production limits as well. Although the German problem was anticipated
from almost the beginning of the war in Ukraine, and Germany has
provided cash in place of weapons, there are several considerations.
First, as is widely known, Europe and Germany are facing a very cold
winter as Russian energy exports decline. It’s possible that the German
weapons “deficit” is a concession to Russia, but it’s highly unlikely:
Berlin could not do this without it being widely known in NATO, where
member states’ weapons capacities are known and production is tracked.
This would get out to the Ukrainians, Poles and Americans. We would have
heard about this by now.
More important is what this tells us about NATO. NATO is supposedly
the guarantor of Europe’s national sovereignties. Germany, Europe’s
premier economy, had enough weapons to provide a small degree of support
to Ukraine. But the hard truth is that the Ukraine war is a relatively
minor, if tragic, conflict in the overall European picture. If Russia
were to take Ukraine, including its far western border, it would
theoretically be in a position to move farther west into NATO countries.
The United States, the United Kingdom, Poland and potentially France
have significant force capabilities, but the United States would
shoulder, by treaty, the main burden. If this situation came to pass,
another Cold War and potentially another U.S.-confrontation would
follow. Therefore, Germany’s failure to create a defense industry
commensurate to the size of its economy is inappropriate and raises
questions about the rest of Europe’s production capacity.
This problem arose from the European myth that war is obsolete and
that the primary purpose of Europe is to build perpetual prosperity. The
EU motto, after all, is peace and prosperity. The former was regarded
as obvious, and the latter followed. Europe compounded this myth by
constructing a quasi-state, in the form of the European Union, that was
solely focused on economic well-being, with the added purpose of
creating a European identity. Military affairs were left to individual
states. Since the United States was a member of NATO and, as such,
anchored Europe’s military security, Washington became the de facto
guarantor of European security.
Germany’s weapons deficit reveals as much. Given its position as the
largest European economy and as a NATO member, it is reasonable to have
expected Germany to maintain or build weapons production facilities out
of a sense of responsibility. It could have also led the EU writ large
in creating weapons production capacity or fostering the growth of a
European military. Since the EU’s annual gross domestic product is
roughly the same as America’s, that would have allowed the Europeans to
absorb the risk of waging a Ukrainian war with European weapons and
forces.
Since a war in Europe was farfetched when the EU really got rolling,
no one wanted to fund such an undertaking, leaving it to NATO, and
therefore the United States – a most cost-effective measure. But the
underlying truth is that the EU consists of members who don’t much trust
each other. The command structure of a European military would be hotly
contested, and the growing power of some countries would surely be
discussed.
It is dangerous to be rich and weak. Such nations are frequently seen
as a tasty meal. That is how Europe appears to global predators. The
United States, which is both rich and strong, has to defend Europe
because the wealth, technology and knowledge of Europe in the hands of
other states might imperil the United States. The Europeans have for
centuries mastered the art of using weakness effectively.
I do not regard the German production shortfall as a cause for real
concern. But in the long run, the European belief that the Continent
faces no threats, or that the U.S. will assume the risk and cost of
defending Europe from whatever risks do exist, can last only so long. It
is better perhaps that Europe remain militarily weak. History shows
that a well-armed, divided continent is savage beyond imagination.
Armament and disarmament are both troubling. Something that is not an
issue now always becomes a frightening issue in Europe eventually.