FCPO - Finally A Strong Upside Burst- 12/29/2014

 

I have written here for the past few weeks that I remain slightly bullish bias as there have been some subtle signals here and there telling me that the bull is lurking around and maybe getting ready to jump the bear. I mentioned the declining D- as the most powerful but yet subtle signal. And the market really began to take off. Last Tuesday price went above the top band with the Stochastic turning positive, so this is flashing a new buy signal. This also managed to clear my filter rules as price went above the signal day high on the next day. But another significant confirmation comes as Tuesday's price also closed above its recent fractal high of 2216. The MACD has now turned positive and has begun to cross above the zero signal line. This is also a very important development as the zero line dictates the bull/bear cycle. The DMI has turned positive with the D+ above 30's which reflects the buyers' solid commitment. The ADX is still lowly but it has just begun to rise. Of course I would have more faith in the current rally if it can go above 20's.

I am placing my stop at below the top band.


 

The most bullish development at the weekly chart would be price has now closed above the top band. The MACD stays positive and continues to rise toward the zero signal line, but the Stochastic stays negative but seems to be trying to turn around. So with this pair of contradicting indicators and a falling ADX, I am still calling this market as in a listless mode. The DMI stays negative but the D- continues falling with the D+ finally rising to 20's . The rising D+ will be a good initial signal that the buyers may soon overpower the sellers. And I would also want to keep an eye on the 2345 which is its recent fractal high in the weekly chart. Watch these two.

Do not get it wrong, the current nasty flood has not destroyed any sizable palm oil plantations as the worst affected areas are in the east coast. At worst, the flood may hinter road transportation. But I also do not know as why FCPO begins to rally now. But as a technical analyst, I can only say there has been many signs written all over the charts. Of course, as usual we would finally get to know the reasons behind the rally after the market has already solidly formed a bull market, we can always depend on the fundamental analysts to "explain" it to us. 

Meanwhile, I want to wish all the visitors to this blog a belated Merry Christmas and A Happy New Year. May our beloved country shall shake off all the bad karmas that have been befallen  to us for the past year. A year of losing 3 planes , a nasty nationwide flood and evil ghouls, zombies and devils shouting extreme racism and religious zeals at us.  We need to be strong.