HEDGE FUND MANAGER: Warren Buffett ‘Is Basically A Tax Evader’

This is the biggest difference between the local "experts"/media/SPG - they always sheepishly beg NOT to differ from the established views.
Warren Buffett



Berkshire Hathaway’s Warren Buffett is pictured in the audience as U.S. President Barack Obama addresses the 2010 Fortune Most Powerful Women Summit in Washington, October 5, 2010.

Macro fund manager John Burbank of Passport Capital joked that Warren Buffett is “basically a tax evader” at the SALT Conference and attendees started clapping and laughing.

The discussion took place when fellow panelist billionaire Leon Cooperman of Omega Advisors brought up the Oracle of Omaha’s returns after tax.

“I’m not a publicist for Warren Buffett, but when I keep hearing people talk about Buffett’s record, nobody mentions his tax efficiency…

He continued: “About 30 years ago, one of his annual reports went through a hypothetical example of being a terrific money manager if you put the every year’s hot stock and made 15% in that stock, sold it and went into the next hot stock in the following year versus owning the same stock at a 15% year for thirty years. He had thousands of times differential after tax. And so I think when the New York Times writes an article saying Buffett underperformed….somebody ought to examine his record after tax returns versus the assumed after tax return on the S&P and the return differential is phenomenal.”

“I think he’s not going to do it though. I think he’s basically a tax evader,” Burbank said as audience members laughed and clapped.

“I think there’s nobody more sophisticated in the tax code if that’s what your saying,” Cooperman responded.

“I just hate when he tells you to pay taxes,” Burbank added to more cheers and laughs from the crowd.

“That’s a different concept. If you’re asking me if he’s become somewhat hypocritical. I don’t want to go there. What I’m saying is his returns after tax are phenomenal. And nobody talks about the fact that he’s tax efficient. Political views, etc. I don’t want to go there.”

 伟大祖国服吸毒成瘾 拒绝吃药

China reverts to credit as property slump threatens to drag down economy

The Chinese central bank has ordered 15 commercial banks to boost loans to first-time buyers

The Chinese state depends on land sales and property taxes to fund 39pc of total revenues 

China's authorities are becoming increasingly nervous as the country’s property market flirts with full-blown bust, threatening to set off a sharp economic slowdown and a worrying erosion of tax revenues. 

New housing starts fell by 15pc in April from a year earlier, with effects rippling through the steel and cement industries. The growth of industrial production slipped yet again to 8.7pc and has been almost flat in recent months. Land sales fell by 20pc, eating into government income. The Chinese state depends on land sales and property taxes to fund 39pc of total revenues.

“We really think this year is a tipping point for the industry,” Wang Yan, from Hong Kong brokers CLSA, told Caixin magazine. “From 2013 to 2020, we expect the sales volume of the country’s property market to shrink by 36pc. They can keep on building but no one will buy.”

The Chinese central bank has ordered 15 commercial banks to boost loans to first-time buyers and “expedite the approval and disbursement of mortgage loans”, the latest sign that it is backing away from monetary tightening.

The authorities are now in an analogous position to Western central banks following years of stimulus: reliant on an asset boom to keep growth going. Each attempt to rein in China’s $25 trillion credit bubble seems to trigger wider tremors, and soon has to be reversed.

Europe’s Russian Nightmare

As Russia covertly invaded the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea in March, Januzs Bugajaski of the Center for Strategic and International Studies explained Europe’s perspective: 

“There’s a palpable fear throughout Eastern Europe that the Russian government no longer respects the borders of Europe, the map of Europe, that it will unilaterally change the borders of its neighbors on the pretext whether of defending minority rights, restoring law and order, or whatever it is, in order to try to expand its influence and expand its control over parts of territories of neighboring countries,” he told PBS Newshour. 

Two months later, exactly that is happening in eastern Ukraine. Two regions, Donetsk and Luhansk, used slipshod referendums on Sunday to secede from Ukraine. Luhansk has already asked to join Russia. And Russian troops remain at the border.

About a quarter of people in Latvia and Estonia consider themselves Russian. About 6% of Lithuanians do.

The destabilization is starting to creep into other post-Soviet states that serve as a buffer between Moscow and Europe. Belarus already backs Putin, and a senior Russian politician said that he has a petition from the breakaway Moldova region of Transnistria to join Russia.
 
Transnistria, which borders the strategic Ukraine region of Odessa, is home to some 2,500 Russian soldiers and half-a-million people (30% of them ethnic Russians). 

In the Balkans, Russia stopped sharing military information with Lithuania while all three countries are bolstering their defenses with help from the West.

“[The annexation of Crimea] opens the Pandora’s box to potential annexation of numerous neighboring states of Russia,” Bugajaski noted. 

Meanwhile, Europe has lacked the political will to enact significant sanctions on Russia, mostly because the EU relies on Moscow for energy. As they hesitate, the borders of Eastern Europe are being redrawn.

法国世界报：中国城市陷入恐惧

上周二法国世界报在档案版推出中国房地产专版，

该报常驻北京记者以及上海记者分别前往中国二线以及三线城市实地采访，了解当地楼市行情以及与之紧 密相关的当地城镇化政策的具体规定，该报还就中国房地产泡沫破灭对中国经济的影响采访了美国康奈尔大学著名的经济学家，曾经主管世界银行中国办公 室的艾斯瓦?普拉萨德Eswar Prasad教授，在今天的法国舆论看中国节目中，本台将就上述多篇文章向大家做一个综述。
世界报有关中国房地产行业专版的大标题是：中国城市陷入恐惧，世界报概括指出，在中国，除了北京，上海，广州，深圳四大都市之外，其他城市的房地 产价格不断下跌，其中原因就在于各地继续盲目投资修建，而市场需要正不断地减弱，为了挽救房地产行业，中共政府试图鼓励国民投资。
世界报特派江苏常州的记者哈罗德?蒂博介绍说，在常州新北区靠近最新修建的高铁火车站地 区，新区的房产售价近期不断下跌，引发几个月前购房的房东的强烈抗议，他们连续几个周末在新区示威抗议，要求收回他们的血汗钱。报道指出，中国不 少类似常州的三线城市，高估了民众对住房的需求。一位姓薛的房地产分析师向世界报表示，常州地方规划部门在市区的四角修建了四个可容纳三十万人的 新区，这使常州未来好几年的住房需求都已得到满足。对地方政府官员来说，他们能否获得上级的赏识关键在于能否推动经济增长，而且，地方财政收入的 百分之三十来自房地产行业。如何为地方提供房地产之外的别的财政来源?这是中央政府正在研究的课题。研究得出的结果之一是征收房地产税。这就意味 着必须设立一个全国统一的房地产登记系统，而一位中国经济学家向世界报表示，此一计划受到官方的阻挠，因为中国许多官员私底下都拥有多家房地产， 世界报列举了近期中国媒体炒得沸沸扬扬的房姐事件以及中国军官在北京拥有数十套住房的例子，指出，中共政府虽然在遏制房地产膨胀上能力有限，但在 控制城镇化的节奏上却不乏王牌。比如说，中国特有的户口制度就能有效地限制农民进入城市居住。
世界报另一篇发自郑州的报道署名布里斯?贝德罗莱地，文章具体地介绍了北京如何控制中国城镇化的节奏，文章指出，中共政府提出的所谓“高质量”的 “以人为本”的城镇化政策，具体来说，就是根据移民的受教育程度，所从事的职业以及个人资产而定。对农民来说，要在大城市获得居民户口比在中小城 市难得多。人口在五百万人口以下的城镇可以大量地吸收农民，而五百万以上的城市则应该严格的控制城市人口，也就是说限制新来人口的权利范围，唯一 的例外是民工的子女应该同城市居民的子女享受同等的教育权利。
作者以郑州为例指出，郑州目前有九百万居民，居住在郑州富士康厂区的三十万民工没有人拥有郑州户口，而其周围的新区修建了一座座的高楼，但是，这 些高楼套房的房东是那些有钱投资的郑州居民或者有孩子在郑州读书的外省城市居民。
世界报在同一版面刊登简短文章，综述最近一段时间以来，引发中国国内舆论广泛关注的发生在上海以及山东因拆迁而死人的事件。指出，强迫拆迁是中国 民众抗争的主要原因。
最后，世界报就中国房地产市场停滞会对中国的整体经济产生什么样的影响采访了美国康奈尔大学经济学家艾斯瓦?普拉萨德Eswar Prasad教授，普拉萨德教授曾经主管世界银行中国办公室，普拉萨德教授认为房地产行业停滞虽然会对金融系统产生冲击，但是，受影响最大应该是中国的实 体经济，因为，中国居民并没有大规模地通过贷款购置房地产，但是，房产却在他们个人资产中占据相当重要的一部分，房产价值缩水，意味着居民个人资 产的缩水，这将直接影响到居民的消费能力。那么，中国目前的经济增长放缓是否会影响政府推出的系列改革的具体落实?普拉萨德教授认为，从长远来 说，中共政府推出的系列改革方向正确，但在短期内却隐藏着一定的风险，他举例说，就拿开放利率以及存款保险这两大改革来说，它们对中国金融体制将 十分有益，然而，问题是中国的经济系统承继了此前国有化经济的诸多弊端，银行对国有企业的大量贷款等问题或许会在过渡过程中引发危机。中国新政权 似乎决议要推动金融行业的改革，下一步要看的是，他们是否在改革的每一个具体的政策上能够战胜党内的保守派。

富二代不爭气　华企危机

问题是，有多少伟大祖国富一代是真正不是靠党的关系的企业家 ?

中国民企全球併购，是经济崛起的推手，却面临后继无人的窘境。

据中国2013年「500富人榜」统计，高达60%逾50岁，未来10年將是富二代 接班高峰期，但频见败家子。
据中国《新財富》「500富人榜」统计显示，2010至2013年，中国最有钱的155位富人中，63%逾50岁，其中27位年过60岁。50岁 以上的富人共303人，占比60.60%；其中60岁以上83人、70岁以上17人。预测未来10年將是中国富二代接班高峰期。
据学者研究指出，企业完成传承时，股价往往只剩接班前5年时的40%。近年中国商场出现不少败家子，甚至几年之內就能把父亲创业的家產挥霍殆尽， 「富不过二代」是中国企业界目前关注的课题。
香港中文大学体制和治理研究中心教授范博宏针对近20年来香港、台湾、新加坡200宗家族企业传承案例研究发现，家族企业在继承过程中，都会面临 巨大的財富损失。他举例，股权所有人于企业传承前5年每份价值100元的股权，在传承完成时只剩下40元。
药企小开赌光家產
麦肯锡研究报告直指，全球家族企业平均寿命只有24年，其中只有约30%的家族企业可传到第二代，能够传至第三代的数量不足总量的13%，只有 5%在三代以后还能继续为股东创造价值。
这些研究並非毫无根据，最近中国就有不少富二代败家的案例。21世纪网报导，浙江台州家族企业海翔药业已在8日易主。企业创办人罗邦鹏花了40 年，把一家乡镇企业经营成上市公司，儿子罗煜竑却在4年光景里，將企业控制权拱手让人。
坊间传闻，罗煜竑因嗜赌欠债5亿元（人民幣，下同，2亿5924万令吉），不得已贱卖持股，套现3亿8000万元（1亿9703万令吉）以偿还赌 债。
同样被封上「富二代败家子」称號的还有山西前首富海鑫集团董事长李兆会。2003年，年仅22岁的李兆会因父亲身亡而接班，当时海鑫总產值超过 50亿元（25亿9245万令吉），但不过10年之间，3月传出爱玩的他有高额贷款逾期，面临破產。
网络爆料，力帆集团创建人尹明善的儿子尹喜地，在2009年8月底，集团的俱乐部被紧缩银根时，他还以3000万元（1555万令吉）买名车布加 迪威龙。

 不是每个人都要伟大祖国的臭钱

台湾歌手陈昇：大陆客别再来

"等 你们上厕所会关门的时候，我再跟你谈统一"

台湾歌手陈昇在大陆有很多粉丝

在两岸三地华语乐坛有相当有名气的台湾歌手陈昇说，他反对 台湾与大陆签署“服贸”协议，不欢迎大陆游客到台湾来。
陈昇接受台湾媒体专访时说，“我们真的要牺牲我们的生活品质吗？”
他的一番谈话，已在两岸三地引起热议。
55岁的陈昇早年凭藉一曲《把悲伤留给自己》而红遍两岸三地。
他近年转型创作而淡出舞台，但在华语乐坛仍相当有名气，在大陆也拥有极多“粉丝”。

"我 有很多大陆朋友，我也很喜欢他们，但我常跟他们讲，等 你们上厕所会关门的时候，我再跟你谈统一。"

台湾歌手陈昇

台湾反“服贸”学运甫落幕，陈昇当时并未公开表态，但他在接受专访中表示，他反对《两岸服务贸易协议》。
陈昇说，“有人说不签服贸会被边缘化。我想问的是，难道我 们还不够边缘化吗？服贸让我们把自己的角色看清楚，我虽然没站 出来特别发声，但如果你问我，我会告诉你，我反服贸。”
陈昇要大陆客别再来台湾，但他本身也有不少中国大陆友人。
陈昇说“我有很多大陆朋友，我也很喜欢他们，但我常跟他们讲，等你们上厕所会关门的时候，我再跟你谈统一。”

网友壁垒分明

陈昇的率性自我，惹怒不少中国大陆网友，却也赢得台湾和香港网 友支持。
陈昇的经纪人表示，陈昇在专访中主要是谈论“拚生活、不是拚经济”，并非着重在中国大陆议题上。
经纪人并说，陈昇由于音乐工作的关係，未来还是会去中国大陆。
陈昇是否有感而发，不得而知。但是，数据会说话。

陆客成长快速

根据统计，今年1月至5月初，大陆观光团来台超过76万人次，较去年同期大涨14.35%。为因应大量陆客入境，移民署已将大陆观光团每天 入境数从5000人调高到8000人，以因应需求。
事实上，来台旅客在2013年突破800万人次，创下历史新高，中国大陆以287万人次高居排行榜第一，虽受《旅游法》实施影响，成长减 缓，但仍较前一年增加11.1%。行政院长江宜桦随即「加码」，订下目标今年要突破900万人次，藉以带动内需成长。
对此，台湾“观光教父”、亚都丽緻饭店前总裁严长寿，却已提出警语。他认为，台湾若只 是冲人次，却无法带进质优的观光客，将踏上“香港化”的不 归路，大批的中国大陆观光客只会毁掉台湾。
许多香港人认为，香港500万居民，但每年却涌入700万陆客，已大大影响香港居住品质。

明年1天5000人

对此，台湾政府似乎已有警觉，已经决定明年不论是旺季或淡季，都将维持大陆观光客1天5000人的上限。
2008年6月，两岸签署《大陆居民赴台旅游协议》，同年7月正式开放大陆居民赴台旅游，将于今年7月届满6周年。
其间，偶有零星状况发生。2009年，中国大陆江苏省常州市游客赵根大在台旅游期间竟在野柳岩壁上刻字，各界谴责声不断，赵根大公开道歉， 表示悔意。

 

RM1.30的报纸不告诉你知的秘密 - 伟大祖国是真正富有？

6年来中国每月印钞1 万亿元是个什么概念？

1990年中国货币还只有1.53万亿元，而近6年来，

中国每月印刷的货币就达到1.08万亿元，相当于每个月给每个中国人印刷了800元。我们 是财富增加太多还是货币超发太多?

央行刚刚公布4月末中国广义货币(M2)余额116.88万亿元，同比增长13.2%。自2013年3月末中国M2余额首次突破100万亿元大 关，高达103.61万亿元后，中国印钞保持了每月1万亿元的速率，13个月印钞13.27万亿元。
2008年美国金融危机后，中国启动4万亿刺激政策，从此走上印钞之路。从2009年起，每年新增M2逾10万亿元。中国M2从2008年的 47.52万亿元到2012年的97.42万亿元，4年增长49.9亿元，即平均每个月增长1.04万亿元。从2009年开始至今年4月的64个 月，中国M2增长69.36万亿元，平均月增1.08万亿元。这意味着，以2013年大陆13.5亿人计算，相当于每个月给每个中国人印刷了 800元。
若以保守的每月1万亿元的速率印下去，即在人民币基数不断增加的情况下，人民币超发速度不断放缓，83个月后，即不到7年时间，中国M2将达到 200万亿元。
据央行数据，2012年中国M2余额为97.42万亿元，居世界第一，约占全球货币供应总量的1/4，是美国的1.5倍，英国的4.9倍，日本的 1.7倍，比整个欧元区的货币供应量还多出20多万亿元。7年后，若中国M2真的达到200万亿元，将相当于2012年美国货币的3倍多。
2012年全世界新发行货币合26万亿人民币，其中中国发行12.26万亿元，独占 46.7%。毫无疑问，中国是当之无愧的世界第一印钞大国，对美国四次量化 宽松(QE)的批判，伴随更大规模的人民币超发，其实是一次贼喊捉贼似的自欺欺人。

让我们看一下美国金融危机后的四次货币超发(量化宽松)。
2009年3月，美国第一次实施QE政策，即在未来6个月中，每月购买400亿美元的长期国债以遏制经济危机的恶化。
2010年11月，美联储宣布进行第二轮量化宽松政策，通过6000亿美元收购美国国债以刺激经济发展。
2012年9月14日，美联储推出QE3，具体措施为每月购买额度400亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券。
2012年12月13日凌晨，美联储宣布推出第四轮量化宽松QE4，每月采购450亿美元国债，替代扭曲操作，加上QE3每月400亿美元的宽松 额度，联储每月资产采购额达到850亿美元。2013年12月19日，美联储决定，将每月850亿美元债券的购买规模削减100亿至每月750亿 美元。
综合始于2009年的美国四轮QE，其印钞规模与中国不可同日而语。中国自2009年起已印钞69.36万亿元。再看看美国四轮货币超发后，中国 外汇储备从2008年底的1.95万亿美元增长到3.95万亿美元，增长2万亿美元，似乎超发美元都流入中国，变成中国增发基础货币的一部分，为 中国货币超发火上浇油。
顶着世界第一印钞大国的桂冠，中国在通货膨胀之路上狂奔已久，借着人民币升值的幻象，人 民币对外升值对内贬值。可怜我等小民，不能像李嘉诚一样抄底西方资产，也不能像海淘族一样跨境买便宜 洋货，只能拿着用血汗换来的人民币，面对吃不起的蔬菜水果，调侃“姜你军”、“蒜你狠”、“豆你玩”、“糖高宗”、“油你涨”。
20年前，咱拿着200多块钱的月薪，差点以4000元左右的价格买到了单位分配的一套两居室，即2年工资能买到一套房改房，其时大陆商品房价约 为每平方米两三百元左右。如今，工薪族拿着咱当年10倍的月薪，不吃不喝20年也只能买到中小城市一套两居室。
如果再往前追溯，咱们的父辈以面朝黄土背朝天的土里刨食，可以养育五六个孩子;许多城市家庭靠着微薄的工资收入，也养大了几个孩子。可今时今日， 有的人可以养五六个情人，有的老板可以养几个孩子，但普通工薪夫妻养一个孩子都不容易。
1990年中国M2为1.53万亿元时，中国还是个穷国;2013年中国M2接近100万亿元时，中国成了GDP第二大国。可是，与钞票与日俱增 的是，人民币实际购买力快速下降带来的焦虑与日俱增，越来越多人担心租不起房，生不起病，上不起学，吃不起菜。当然，买房已经被排斥在选项之外。
我们都曾经笑话越南盾往往以百万计，我们也曾惊讶台币、日元、韩元不如人民币值钱，但人民币如果以每月1万亿元的速率印刷下去，是不是会加快追赶 台币、日元、韩元、越南盾的步伐?

 Bolehland's Vietnam Embassy Staff - "You Die Your Business"

In the Chinese Press: M'sians in trouble in Vietnam told to write report


PETALING JAYA (May 16): Instead of getting immediate supports, Malaysians in Vietnam who sought help from the Malaysian consulate in Ho Chi Minh City, amid anti-China riot, were told to file in a report!

Lee Pei Pei, an operational staff of Malaysian furniture manufacturer Latitude Tree Vietnam Joint Stock Company (LTV), told Oriental Daily News that they were told to call back after lunch hour when they made an emergency call to the consulate.

When the company staff called the consulate again around 2pm, informing them the situation had gone out of control with mobs looting and damaging their factory, the consular staff asked them to send in an email with pictures and a report on the situation instead of giving them immediate support.

“We were very disappointed with the ‘red-tape’ that we had to face in a state of panic. Even so we still sent them a few pictures and briefed them the situation which had gone out of control, urging them to provide helps and supports immediately.”

Lee and her female colleague was later rushed back to her hostel with the help of their Vietnamese colleagues before dressing up to look like the Vietnamese and fleeing with their passports.

LTV was one of the Malaysian enterprises in Vietnam that have been looted and forced to cease operation after the country’s anti-China protest turned violent.

Earlier, its Malaysian-listed parent company Latitude Tree Holdings Bhd told Bursa Malaysia that rioters had entered the premise and factory of LTV, located in the Vietnam Singapore Industrial Park.

Latitude said the main office building of LTV had been vandalised, ransacked and looted by the rioters, with some important data, permits, licenses and documents destroyed or burnt.

No Tree Hugging Hippies Ever Complain About This But  It Is Always America, America

 

China Burning and Consuming Most Of World's Coal


China's coal consumption has grown rapidly in recent years, and is now far larger than anything the world has ever seen, with more than 3.2 billion tonnes per year, almost as much per year as all other countries combined, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed Wednesday.

According to the report, Chinese production and consumption of the fossil fuel rose for the 13th consecutive year in 2012, the last full year for which statistics are available. In comparative terms, the nation produced nearly four times as much coal as the second largest producer, the United States, which had a 12% share of global production.

China's dependence on coal is well known. The fossil fuel accounts for over two thirds of the country's total energy consumption, and four-fifths of its electricity. The combustible has been fuelling the Chinese economy for a while now, the report hints. Gross domestic product in 2012 grew 7.7%, though that growth rate followed a decade of 10% expansion that ended in 2011.


Source: EIA

Beijing has recently announced a series of drastic measures aimed to reduce rates of air pollution and curb the nation’s dependency on the fossil fuel.

The government has said it would shut down roughly 2,000 small coal mines this year, with a total capacity of 117 million tonnes. The first ones to go will be small-scale old and depleting mines in the east of the country. Authorities also want to consolidate production from operations located in remote parts, including the vast northwestern regions of Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang.

The idea of closing down mines is nothing new to China, which accounts for 46% of the world's coal production according to the EIA. In 2012 alone Beijing closed 628 medium-sized coal mines, improved technological processes of 622 mines, merged 388 mines and phased out 97.8 million tons of outdated production facilities.

Last October, the Chinese government vowed to close at least 2,000 small coal mines by 2015 over safety concerns. The news came only a month after it said it wouldn’t allow more coal-fuelled installations near Beijing, Shanghai and Guangdong, in an effort to curb air pollution in the country’s most industrial regions. 

Why The China-Vietnam Conflict

China’s adventurism In The South China Sea

Reuters
Chinese oil rig Haiyang Shi You 981 is seen surrounded by China Coast Guard ships in the South China Sea, about 210 km (130 miles) off shore of Vietnam May 14, 2014

Anti-Chinese rioting in Vietnam, the result of protests that were tolerated and even encouraged by the country’s authoritarian government, has left dozens dead this week. The uproar began when China’s state oil company moved one of its rigs to an oil block inside of Vietnam’s “exclusive economic zone” in the South China Sea; within days, suspected Chinese-owned businesses were being torched and Chinese citizens were fleeing to neighboring countries for safety.

Was the escalation a calculated move by an increasingly-aggressive Beijing? And are the neighboring countries, whose relationship has been marked by over a millennium of tension — and who have fought multiple armed engagements with one another over the past 40 years — hurtling towards an even more dangerous confrontation? A quick rundown of why the situation might be a little different from usual flare-ups over the ever-disputed South China Sea.

This an unprecedented Chinese move. As Caryl Thayer writes at The Diplomat, “This incident marks the first time China has placed one of its oil rigs in the EEZ of another state without prior permission.” As Thayer notes, the Chinese have claimed that the rig is in “territorial Chinese waters,” but it seems as if they understood the potentially-explosive nature of what they were doing: “The oil rig was accompanied by as many as 80 ships, including seven People’s Liberation Army Navy warships.”
 

Both countries have been building towards something like this. In 2010, Vietnam purchased six diesel submarines from Russia in anticipation of future confrontations with China. According to the same Reuters report, China was also pressuring businesses not to invest in Vietnamese exploration of “disputed” oil and gas blocks. In March of 2012, Vietnam officially protested the Chinese state oil company’s decision to open up bidding on 19 blocks in the South China Sea. As this graphic indicates, China claims much of the South China Sea for itself.

Still, China’s specific motives here are sort of vague. Why escalate tensions with Vietnam now, just days after a U.S. presidential visit to the region, and after recent improvements in Chinese-Vietnamese relations? Analyst Ely Ratner sees the situation as evidence that “domestic bureaucratic and political imperatives are overcoming the logic of strategy in Beijing” — in other words, Chinese leaders decided to move the oil rig without thinking through the potential strategic consequences. At the same time, Ratner writes that China has been less reactive lately in the South China Sea, and more willing to assert what it believes to be its territorial rights without waiting for its neighbors to provoke it. 

So now what? Analysts say that this is the worst crisis in Chinese-Vietnamese relations since a 1979 border war that killed thousands on both sides. Even if this situation doesn’t reach a violent tipping point, China’s state oil company asserts that over a third of the country’s claimed oil and gas wealth is under the South China Sea. And if China can use this incident to establish a foothold in disputed waters, it’s could be the first in a series of escalations and controversies in a resource-rich, disputed, and increasingly-militarized body of water.

 香港黑社会帮会人物回忆六四营救行动

陳達鉦：活着就幹死了就算
1989年北京学生抗议被镇压后，大批活动人士南逃香港

英国《星期天电讯报》刊登了该报驻上海记者摩尔的报道，

讲述了1989年六四镇压后香港帮会帮助学生领袖和活动人士出逃的故事。

这篇题为“出逃天安门”的报道讲述了人称“六哥”的帮会人物如何利用走私快艇在六·四事件以后冒着危险从大陆营救逃亡的活动分子去香港。“六哥” 的快艇安置了４个外部引擎，在香港和珠三角水域能够摆脱两边警方舰艇的追赶。

在1989年北京抗议镇压20多年后，人称“六哥”的陈达钲在香港首次接受西方媒体采访，透露了营救活动的前前后后。

他说最初是在九龙的一个旅馆会见了两名香港电影艺人邓光荣和岑建勳。会见由香港的活动分子安排。两位艺人问他是否愿意参加营救学生的行动，六哥当 时就答应了，他说他很清楚营救有危险，他当时刻意没有多想，因为三思后他可能就会做出不同的决定。

当天晚上他起草了１８页的计划，制定了必须的行动洗净，包括信号和暗语等。他选用了“李 成功”作为被营救逃亡者的代号。

随后发生的就是一系列富有传奇色彩的营救政治逃亡者的行动，里面有像六哥这样的三合会头目，还有西方外交官，他们从中共当局眼皮下面营救出了 150名逃亡者到香港。当时的香港还是英国的属地。之后这些逃亡者被转送去了法国和美国。
話你知：當年巨星一呼百應

翌年，梅艷芳、羅大佑、岑建勳、葉德嫻、盧冠廷及黃耀明等藝人，仍然有參與在其他海外地區為民運籌款的演唱活動。


香港市民支援爱国民主运动联合会（支联会）的主席，现香港工党的主席李卓人说,营救行动的参与者形形色色，是个奇怪的组合。他说真正使营救行动成 功的是“六哥”那样的人，他们只是筹集资金。“六哥”他们有现成的走私网络，他们为每次营救行动付款，逃亡的人越知名，价码也越高。

后来被称作“黄雀行动”的营救内幕从来没有被公开过。即使现在“六哥”都说他担心一些组织者会受牵连。但是他说“现在再没有人追究我，但我不能肯 定其他人不受牵连”，“我很少说这件事，所以大多数人记不得我曾参与过这件事，我不想获得任何承认，还有很多其他人参加了那次行动。”

报道说解放军进入北京戒严，士兵向平民开枪令“六哥”受到震撼。他说他从电视上看到开枪，几乎晕厥过去，他的亲戚甚至把他送到了医院治疗。

“六哥”参加营救行动也和他自己的个人经历有关。１９７１年他涉水长达９英里从广东逃亡到了香港。当时中国正值文革期间，“六哥”当时在印刷毛主 席语录的印刷厂担任一个部门的负责人，他被指控为“反革命”，因此他选择了偷渡。

如今从“六哥”的名片上看不出他是帮会成员，他名片上列出他是几个公司总裁的头衔。现年７０岁的“六哥”说他已经退休很长时间，现在靠房地产租金 生活。他在1996年被４名攻击者用菜刀砍伤，流了很多血。当时医生以为他会瘫痪。现在他的左胳膊还受到影响。

在1989年的时候，“六哥”是名声很大的走私者。但据他自己说，他当时只是个小老板，但是因为他发明了当时最有效的走私方法，所以他的名气很 大。

在天安门抗议发生之前，“六哥”一直走私汽车、汽车配件和任何带高进口关税的商品。他们当时从美国买来二手车，每辆车投入20万港币，卖出30万 港币。

为了营救逃亡者，“六哥”组织了一个10人队伍，一个是他的兄弟“七哥”，其他人都是愿意为他两肋插刀的朋友。

当香港支联会的人确认了营救目标的身份后，“六哥”的团队就安排一艘快艇。“六哥”说，支联会的人仅提供人名，会合地点和暗号，其余由他负责。他 说总共花费了一千万港元，其中大部分由支联会筹集，他和其他负责人也出了一些。大部分钱给了那些操作快艇的人，还有一些付给大陆官员做贿赂。

被“六哥”营救的逃亡这当中有李禄，现在是个富有的银行家；万润南，中国科技公司四通公司的创始人；吾尔开希，他在被通缉的学生运动21位领袖名 单中排第二位。李禄在２００７年致信对“六哥”表达了敬仰、感激和热爱，他说“全世界人民会长时间记得你。认识你很荣幸。”

被营救的学生和知识分子先被秘密带到大陆的一个秘密住所，然后在夜幕中登船，有时候在途中的小岛停留，然后奔赴香港。现年７２岁居住在美国的严家 祺说，在偷渡香港途中他们藏在甲板下面，周围也有其他船只护卫。

现在在波士顿做律师的５７岁的项小吉说，在逃亡途中他们被告知“下一次有人出示汇丰银行的上面有牛头图案的钥匙链，我们就应该跟他们走。”

李卓人说，在香港逃亡者被带到了在香港西贡的一个秘密地点。李卓人说他们帮助逃亡者同使馆联系，接受政治庇护审查。他们还给他们离开香港飞机票和 一些钱。

李卓人说法国人提供的帮助最多，英国因为管辖香港也发挥了作用，他们甄别了进入香港的逃亡者，决定哪些人有资格申请政治庇护。法国人帮助了约 １００名逃亡者离开香港。法国领馆在没有得到来自巴黎批准的情况下向他们发放了签证。

据知情人士说，法国领馆办事迅速同法国革命的传统有关，从人权意义上具有重要的象征含义，当时很少有人在意是否这么做会激怒中国。

虽然“六哥”和其他参与营救行动的人认为在南方的中国官员对营救行动睁一只眼闭一只眼，但是营救行动仍然充满了危险。“六哥”有两名手下在营救行 动中死于撞船事件。还有两人被中国警方逮捕监禁。“六哥”说，有个现在已经离世的人，他叫罗海星，负责搜集情报。当他们在营救陈子明的时候，陈已 经被捕。但是警察向罗海星提高了假情报，因此当“六哥”的人前去接应营救的时候，落入了警察的圈套。

这两人被捕后向警察交待了营救行动，他们被监禁了６年。“六哥”说，他要求港支联在半年内把他们营救出来，但他们没有成功。之后“六哥”亲自出马 直接同中国当局接触。在九十年代“六哥”去北京为争取他们释放奔走。他对当局说，他们应该感谢他把令当局头痛的人物带出中国。

中国当局对“六哥”说，如果他停止营救行动，他们就会释放他的人。

 

Modi, The Dark Lord - There’s A Dark Side To India’s New Prime Minister That Should Worry Everyone

Gujarat’s chief minister Narendra Modi speaks during the “Vibrant Gujarat Summit” at Gandhinagar in the western Indian state of Gujarat January 12, 2013. Fresh off his re-election as chief minister of Gujarat and amid expectations he could contend to be the next prime minister, Modi avoided talk of a bigger political future during a state investment event. 

Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies have won India’s general election by the biggest margin in 30 years.
Modi will be sworn in as the new prime minister of India on May 21.

Indian stocks surged to a record in India, with the BSE having risen as much as 6.15%, and the rupee also strengthened against the U.S. dollar. Modi has largely positioned himself as a champion of economic progress as India’s economic growth has languished to 10-year lows. And one can’t argue with the fact that Modi is a much more charismatic leader than prime minister Manmohan Singh.
While there’s much optimism around what a Modi win could mean for the Indian economy, there’s a lot to worry about as well.
Modi is a member of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) a Hindu nationalist party and has done a good job avoiding questions about his role in the deadly Gujarat Hindu-Muslim riots of 2002 that left over a 1,000 dead. Modi was chief minister of the state at the time.  The riots began after a train with Hindu pilgrims was set on fire in Godhra, killing 59 people. Hindu mobs then turned on Muslims in Gujarat

In the aftermath, Modi has addressed the issue saying: “I feel sad about what happened but no guilt. And no court has come even close to establishing it.”

Modi only fanned the flames with his New York Times interview in 2002, in which he said his only regret was that he didn’t manage the media better. Following this, the U.S. imposed a visa ban on Modi and Britain announced a 10-year boycott.

The Supreme Court of India however has given him a “clean chit” — exonerating him of wrongdoing.

Modi has also called for a crackdown on illegal immigrants in India. He has accused West Bengal of being soft on illegal immigration and accused it of sheltering them in order to secure votes from minorities. Sujoy Dihar at LiveMint points out that Modi has said illegal immigrants should have their “bags packed” in case he comes to power. Modi’s rhetoric, and it has been argued that of the BJP, has shown an anti-Muslim bias.  

In a note published earlier this year, Nomura’s Alastair Newton points out that during a Feb. 23 rally in Assam, Modi called for Hindu migrants from Bangladesh to be assimilated back into India. He said non-Hindus should be sent back to their home 
nations. Modi’s rhetoric has raised concerns about what this could mean for neighborhood politics.

Indian publication LiveMint pointed to Modi’s decision to contest the seat in the holy city of Varanasi as a sign that he hasn’t abandoned his Hindu supremacist ideology: 

“It is widely expected that Modi’s nomination from Varanasi will positively affect the outcome for the BJP in a number of other seats in Eastern Uttar Pradesh and Bihar which are electorally important as together the two states send 120 lawmakers to the Lok Sabha. Further, the choice of Varanasi is also symbolic in nature which indicates that the party may not have completely abandoned the Hindutva ideology.”

The company Modi keeps


It isn’t just Modi we need to watch, it’s also the company he keeps. Amit Shah, the general secretary of BJP and former Minister of home affairs in Gujarat, is Modi’s closest confidante. In a profile for Caravan Magazine, Poornima Joshi, identifies Shah’s sketchy past. 
 From Joshi:

“The Supreme Court has set up a special monitoring committee to probe twenty-two fake encounter deaths in Gujarat from 2002 to 2006; in four of these years, Shah was Gujarat’s home minister, and in charge of the state police. This includes the three cases in which Shah himself has been arrested and formally accused: the killings of the gangster Sohrabuddin Sheikh and his wife, and the subsequent murder of a witness. 

In 2004, Gujarat state police killed Ishrat Jehan and three of her acquaintances. Shah hasn’t been charged, though one of the victim’s father’s through a Gujarat high court has tried to get the court to arraign Shah. Two police officers accused in the case say the attack has the approval of Modi and Shah. In 2010, Shah, facing murder charges, was forced to resign.

In her profile, Joshi writes “behind the public projection of Modi’s claims to be the source of unprecedented development in the state, it is believed that the two men dominated through intimidation and force.” For his part Shah argues that he hasn’t been charged with anything and that it’s all part of a wider “political conspiracy” against him.

As Modi takes the helm of the world’s largest democracy, it’s important for Indians and the international community to watch Modi and Shah’s relationship unfolds.

Meanwhile Giriraj Singh, a BJP leader in the Indian state of Bihar, caused a storm by saying those that oppose Modi should find themselves a home in Pakistan, not India. A comment that the BJP distanced itself from though Modi didn’t outright condemn.

The economic dream

Modi has come to power on the back of Gujarat’s economic success during his time as chief minister of the state. But many have pointed out that Gujarat’s economy was doing well long before he came to power.

The strong sweep by Modi and his allies suggests there’s a chance that economic reforms won’t be stymied every step of the way, as they were during the Congress’s fractious rule.


But Modi’s seeming religious intolerance, his ambiguous stance on women’s issues, and the implications of his rule on Indian press freedom (especially as Hindu nationalists take to the internet to intimidate Modi critics) are cause for concern. Those celebrating Modi’s win should be cognizant of what his rule could mean for a democratic nation.

NATO Practices Defending Estonia From Invasion In Large War Game

Troop participate in Exercise ‘Steadfast Javelin One’ on May 17, 2014 in Otepaa, Estonia

This week, NATO’s throwing a week-long dress rehearsal for a possible invasion of Estonia, in what could be an attempt to send a newly-aggressive Russia a message about the alliance’s commitment to defending its most vulnerable members. Exercise Steadfast Javelin 1 includes 6,000 troops from nine NATO countries, and according to Stars and Stripes, “infantry and reconnaissance forces, engineers, fighter jets as well as anti-aircraft teams and a cybersecurity team” are participating. 

In 2007, Estonia’s web infrastructure was hit with a massive wave of probably Russian-sponsored denial-of-service attacks, and Russian cyber-attacks preceded the country’s invasion of Georgia the next year. The exercise’s cyber-security aspect suggests that NATO planners have a particular and already-familiar invasion scenario in mind.

Russia’s aggressive moves in eastern Ukraine are an open challenge to a post-Cold War European order based on bringing former Soviet bloc states into the world’s premier security alliance. The Baltic countries of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania were added to NATO in 2004, but they all have substantial Russian minorities and only became independent states during the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Prince Harry takes part in a NATO Military Training Exercise ‘Steadfast Javelin One’ on May 17, 2014 in Otepaa, Estonia

NATO is based on a commitment to mutual defense: if one country is attacked, the others are obligated to come to its aid. It’s in small, embattled, or otherwise weak frontline states that thisprinciple is most at risk.

Ukraine and Georgia were both potential candidates for NATO membership before Russia succeeded in annexing parts of both countries — what kind of a defense would the alliance mount if Russian tanks started streaming into one of the Baltics?

Until it actually happens, it’s impossible to know whether NATO would survive a full-on Russian invasion of the one of the alliance’s Baltic members.

But NATO air patrols over Baltic airspace have tripled since the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis. And while this may or may not provide any additional reassurance to the Baltics, Steadfast Javelin has included one of the most high-profile military officers on the planet: England’s Prince Harry, who is a captain in the British armed forces.

亚洲“债瘾”

 

亚洲能够戒掉“债瘾”吗？随着经济增长放缓和借贷 成本上升，整个亚洲地区都面临这个问题。十多年来，亚洲经济大部分时间都呈高速增长，如今许多人担心，亚洲的黄金时代可能趋于结束。

2012年，当经济学家乔治•马格纳斯(George Magnus)撰写《亚洲奇迹终结了吗？》(“Is Asia’s miracle over?”)这份报告的时候，人们普遍表示怀疑。许多人认为，金融危机只不过是令全球经济发展势头最为强劲的亚洲地区产生了点颠簸，该地区 经济回暖后还 将持续强劲增长。

但就现在而言，随着出口持续疲弱，西方国家逐步退出量化宽松政策，以及亚洲各国经济债务负担沉重，亚洲繁荣见顶的观点迅速成为主流。

以中国为核心的亚洲经济奇迹一直是推动该地区以及全球其他地区发展的因素。它使亚洲每日生活费低于2美元的人口所占比例在过去十年下降了一 半。亚洲 开发银行(ADB)的数据显示，韩国、马来西亚和泰国的人均收入增长了一倍，中国和印尼的人均收入增长了5倍。国际货币基金组织(IMF)表 示，自 2002年中国加入世界贸易组织(WTO)以来，亚洲新兴经济体GDP占全球GDP总额的比例从11%升至21%。亚洲新兴经济体对全球经济 增长的贡献还 要大得多。

即便在金融危机期间，由于中国推出庞大的经济刺激计划以及各国央行大幅降息导致借贷成本处于历史低位，亚洲经济继续高歌猛进。那些措施提升 了全球对亚洲出口的需求，但更重要的是，在廉价信贷的推动下，它们帮助公司和消费者促进了国内经济增长。

关于中国“债瘾”的问题已多有论述，但这个问题在亚洲并非中国内地独有。自2008年以来，香港、新加坡、泰国和马来西亚等地的信贷水平急 剧飙升，同时韩国和台湾本已高企的家庭债务水平进一步上升。

在经济加速增长时期，这或许不值得担心。但现在许多亚洲国家的经济增长都在放缓。信贷密度——衡量创造每一单位的经济增长所需债务的指标 ——大幅飙升，与此同时生产率增长大幅放缓。在各国纷纷准备提高利率之际，急速行驶的债务列车似乎有脱轨的危险。

汇丰银行(HSBC)亚洲经济学家范力民(Fred Neumann)表示：“债务与GDP增长比例上升没有任何问题。只要你能够扭转生产率增长放缓态势，就不一定崩盘。亚洲面临的重大问题是，在危机真正爆 发前，实施政治上不受欢迎的结构性改革。”

亚洲传统的出口引擎发动不起来。汇丰表示，亚洲发展中国家对美国和欧元区的出口占其GDP的比例从2005年的14%，下跌至如今的7%， 部分原因在于国内成本不断上升和发达经济体消费方式的改变。

大和证券(Daiwa)估计，如果没有出口的推动，不包括日本在内的亚洲经济体明年将增长5.8%，而2010年的增长率为9.2%。亚洲 增长率接近两位数的时代似乎已经结束。

尽管与西方相比，那些增长率似乎仍令人眼红，但瑞银(UBS)亚洲首席经济学家吴德恺(Duncan Wooldridge)表示，该地区目前也面临亚洲版的低迷——经济体继续扩张，但远低于它们的历史平均水平。

吴德恺表示：“如果我们已经耗尽利用信贷快速增长来支持（经济）增长的能力，而且出口也不会变得强劲，那么亚洲增长如何才能回归其长期以来 的轨道？这种可能性非常低。最可能的情况是，我们将在今后一段时期处于较低速增长的轨道上。”

他补充称，这种趋势只有通过深层次的、影响深远的改革才能扭转——在没有金融危机触发的情况下，这种改革很少发生。
美联储(Fed)启动退出量化宽松政策之时，可能就是亚洲奇迹见顶之日。世界各国的借贷成本甚至在利率上涨之前已经在逐步上升，这将考验亚 洲的偿债能力。

政策制定者和商界领导人将不得不寻找新的经济模式。摩根大通(JP Morgan Chase)首席全球经济学家布鲁斯•卡斯曼 (Bruce Kasman)表示：“现在的基本情况是，我们将不会再现过去十年的增长率。”

“我们面临调整，让经济摆脱极度依赖信贷的模式……这种调整无论成功还是失败都会充分说明，我们是否找到了增长平衡点——它虽然不那么强 劲，但对全球经济来说仍然有可能相当坚实和有益。历史没有很好地说明这样的调整会如何展开。”

“中国人民从此站起来”了

 

迟钝的巨人

"“中国人民从此站起来”了. 中国将再次成为中央帝国，接纳四方的朝拜"

 

九年前，我去越南旅行。这 多少象是时光穿梭。河内令人想起八十年代夏日的北京，它缓慢、朴素、充满好奇。中国的影响随处可见。孔子像矗立在当地的文庙中，提醒着汉文化 长久的影响， 只不过这位孔子与中国境内的大不相同，像是一名土生的本地人。两国也分享着二十世纪的革命记忆，广场、雕像、红旗，越南的革命进程也深受中国 的影响，胡志 明曾在广州避难、接受训练，还会写作汉语的打油诗。而自从1991年以来，越南更是仿照邓小平的理念，开始了自己的经济改革，放松政府管制， 鼓励市场力 量。在越南的社会科学院，一位经济学家和我讲起，他们摆脱马克思主义教条的艰苦努力。大街小巷商摊上摆满了廉价的中国货、还有盗版的中文电视 连续剧。

这 些例证很容易激发起一个中国游客的优越感（在缅甸、柬埔寨、老挝这些贫穷的、被共产主义肆虐过的国家尤其如此）。不论历史、地理、人口、经济 总量、影响 力，你都占在绝对主导的一方。是英国作家C·W·刘易斯说的吧，看着一个后来者在你早已走过的路上痛苦的探索，是乐事一桩。这是权力的诱惑。

最 难忘的一幕发生Ngo Quyen Street上的一间咖啡馆中。一位温柔可人的越南女作家对我说，在本地流行的小说里，高大的男人总是中国人，越南的形象是柔顺、需要被保护、也经常被侵 犯的女人。她被称作“越南的卫慧”，也主动承认卫慧的大胆性描写鼓舞了她的写作。这个比喻令我吃惊。在我们的记忆中，更强大的一方总是白人男 子，中国女人 则是温柔的承受者。即使在杜拉斯的《情人》中，那个貌似强者的中国商人在15岁的法国少女面前都显得过分阴郁、脆弱。

在 这家咖啡馆的不远处，就是索菲特饭店。半个世纪前，格雷厄姆·格林在此写出了《安静的美国人》（The Quiet American）。和刚从学校走出、心怀理想的美国军官派乐（Alden Pyle，书中人物）一样，他不仅要抢走世故、嘲讽的英国记者的越南情人，还带着一腔纯真（也是物质）幻想重塑这个国家。很少有小说像这本这样捕捉到历史 力量转移时的情绪，面对美国的崛起，旧欧洲只能无奈、嘲讽与怀疑，并且让他们在虚构的世界里无情地失败。

 

现实中的美国失败过，却似乎并不彻 底，而且卷土重来。当我坐着中巴车沿着这扁担式国度向南，抵达胡志明市时，可以轻易地感受到越南多么想念曾被他们驱赶走的美国，克林顿与希拉 里的英文盗版 传记混着各式美国人的越战记录，在市中心到处叫卖。本地人仍喜欢叫自己“西贡”。这种怀旧之情再熟悉不过了，就像上海人想穿越到“东方巴黎” 一样——他们 都在确认自己经历了一场失败的、最好从未发生的革命。

在那次行程里，很少有人谈论一九七九年的那场战争，似乎怕是引起我这远来客人的不快。不过，我也不知道该追问什么，因为我对此也不甚了了。 将近三十年后，这场所谓的“自卫反击战”仍是个谜。

二
距离那次越南之行九年了。很多记忆早已模糊，新的消息也不断涌入，与那位女作家的谈话片段却变得日益鲜明。

一 个世纪来中国人都是在“受害者”的历史心理中成长的。共产党中国声称“中国人民从此站起来”了，但强调的却是不断被“帝国主义” 侵略的历史。在中国经济起 飞的九十年代，广泛推行的爱国主义教育是一部百年屈辱的历史画卷——这集体的屈辱感似乎能激发起一种扭曲的民族凝聚力。

但中国也再次强大起 来。一种奇特的心理就此诞生——我们一方面为悠久的历史与正在崛起的现实自傲，一方面又 总陷于受害者的敏感与愤怒中。这情况在2008年北京奥运会火炬传 递中有了戏剧性的出演——全世界目睹着时髦、富裕的中国青年们真诚上演的爱国剧，他们有一种强烈的受困感与愤怒。
对昔日强者的过度敏感，也总伴随着对弱者的极度迟钝。我们习惯于在强调自己受侵 害的近代历史，却忘记了自己在别人面前的强者地位。

九年前，中国正处于它影响力迅速上升的起点，如今它已带来广泛而深刻的影响，尤其对它的周边世界。

它 似乎需要一个更复杂的格雷厄姆·格林来理解这个新现象。对于周边世界来说，中国既是现实中的新强权，也是历史记忆的再度重演。东南亚的评论家们已经谈论了 好几年的“朝贡体系”，似乎中国将再次成为中央帝国，接纳四方的朝拜。同样重要的是，这个经济强 权也仍是那个曾经输出革命的极权国家，它的意识形态与政治 逻辑并未彻底改变，它仍是高度封闭的政权。
北京不知道如何减缓这种焦虑。

早在1970年代末，邓小平与李光耀的一次会面中，前者希望后者缔结联盟对抗苏联帝国主义，而后者则说，东南亚的主要忧虑是中国输出的共产 主义。邓才恍然。

而此刻，不论怎样谈论“和平崛起”，或是用“和平发展”这个新词来取代它，都不足以抵消这种疑虑。一方面，很少有国家是真的“和平崛起”，崛起经常导致混乱与冲突。 在过去了两年中，它甚至连这个姿态也失去了，以一种故作强硬的姿态示人。
中 国不再是那个输出革命的国家，为了意识形态而制造人道灾难。但如今，它为了保持自 身利益，同样不择手段。所有的国家都必须扞卫自己“国家利益”，并不可避 免地影响他人，但像此刻中国这样的崛起大国，如此令人吃惊的欠缺道德原则， 无疑会带来更大的不安。这种道德迟钝不仅出现在政治权力中，也弥漫在中国社会， 它表现在人们对於中国给其他民族带来的伤害，浑然不觉。金正日去世的消息传来，人们带着嘲笑的表情看着画面上嚎啕的朝鲜 人，似乎他们是来自另一个星球的怪 物。我们忘记了，仅仅近卅八年前，他们以同样的方式来面对毛泽东的死亡-难道他不是一个荒诞的暴君吗？更重要的是，正是 中国持续的支持，才造成朝鲜的现 状。普通中国人、甚至整个知识分子阶层，从不会思考那些缅甸 人、叙利亚、苏丹人、越南人、柬埔寨人的感受。

怎样解释这种道德与理解上的迟 钝？一个专制政治体制给人们提供了一个扭曲的世界观，人们从不了解外部世界真的发生了什麽。更重要的是，人们一直试图躲避自己的政府，而这样 的政府所犯下 的错误与自己无关，他们不需要为此负责。人们变成了一群被狭隘的自我利益束缚的人，挣扎於自己的痛苦，而无暇关注别人的痛苦。而且很有可能， 他们还默许了 这种弱肉强食的扭曲价值观，自己在成为受害者时，也同样拥有压迫者的思维方式。

这也反映出中国崛起中最明显的缺陷——智识与道德的不足。中国人进入了世界很多地区，却对当地文化一无所知，更无法理解他人的焦虑与痛苦， 对此也毫无兴趣。

所有外交事务都是内政逻辑的延伸。倘若中国遵循的是狭隘的发展主义、弱肉强食逻辑，他们必然以同样的逻辑对待外部世界。倘若中国真的想赢得 广泛的尊敬，它必须拥有自省的能力，能理解他人的焦虑与痛苦。但这种情况在短期内仍很难发生，只要这套扭曲的政治制度犹在。

Copyright row over Led Zeppelin classic Stairway to Heaven

Stairway to Heaven contributed towards making Led Zeppelin into international rock megastars

A legal dispute faces the band Led Zeppelin over the song Stairway to Heaven, widely seen as one of the greatest rock compositions of all time.

The copyright infringement action is being taken on behalf of late guitarist Randy California, who played on the same bill as Led Zeppelin in the 1960s.
His lawyers say that he should be given a writing credit on the 1971 track.

Bloomberg Businessweek  said that the eight-minute song had earned $562m (£334m) as of 2008.
The magazine says that the song was so profitable in part because Led Zeppelin did not release it as a single, leaving fans with no option but to buy the entire album, which is untitled but known as Led Zeppelin IV.

Both Led Zeppelin and Warner Music have said they will not comment on the allegations.

Stairway to Heaven was written by Led Zeppelin vocalist Robert Plant (pictured) and guitarist Jimmy Page in 1970 when both men lived in a remote cottage in Wales

Robert Plant says the band will not reunite following a one-off performance in London seven years ago

The final part of Stairway to Heaven consists of a famous Jimmy Page guitar solo

 

Media reports say that the court case is likely to be based on allegations that the famous Stairway to Heaven opening guitar riff loosely resembles guitar work on an instrumental called Taurus.
Taurus was written by Randy California's Los Angeles-based psychedelic band, Spirit, in 1968.




The plaintiffs include Spirit's founding bassist Mark Andes and a trust that manages royalties for Randy California, who died in 1997 trying to save his son from drowning.

Mr California is quoted by Bloomberg Businessweek as describing Stairway to Heaven as a "rip-off" shortly before he died.
'It is fairly blatant, and note for note," Mr Andes told Bloomberg Businessweek. "It would just be nice if the Led Zeppelin guys gave Randy a little nod. That would be lovely."

Led Zeppelin guitarist Jimmy Page is reputed to have begun writing Stairway to Heaven in 1970 in a remote cottage in Wales.
Earlier this month the band unveiled two previously unheard recordings ahead of the re-issue in June of its first three albums.
Jimmy Page, now 70, meanwhile has scotched rumours of a reunion concert.

For a band that broke up in 1980, following the death of the drummer John Bonham, interest in Led Zeppelin remains intense.
The surviving members reunited seven years ago for a concert at London's O2 arena.

The British Stockbroker Who Saved 669 Children From The Nazis Just Turned 105

REUTERS/Toby Melville
Sir Nicholas Winton poses in front of the Winton train at Liverpool Street station in central London in 2009. The historical train departed from Prague on Tuesday to re-trace the original route from Prague to London with several survivors and descendants of 669 so-called “Winton’s children” on board.

On Dec. 3, 1938, a British stockbroker made the impromptu decision to cancel his skiing vacation and join his friend Martin Blake in Prague, who had desperately asked for his help. The decision changed his life and saved the lives of 669 people in the process.
Nicholas Winton turned 105 years-old on Monday, celebrating his birthday at the Czech embassy in London with a cake with 105 candles. The Czech officials surprised Winton with the news that the Czech Republic will award him the Order of the White Lion, the country’s highest honor.
Czech Republic President Milos Zeman will present the Award to Winton in a ceremony in Prague this October.
Winton, who is of German Jewish ancestry,  had heard of the violence against Jewish communities in Germany and Austria, especially the infamous Kristellnacht. After hearing about the Kinderstransport, an effort of British Jewish agencies to bring 10,000 Jewish children to Great Britain, Winton knew he had to arrange a similar operation in Czechoslovakia.
Winton explained how the operation got started in The Power Of Good: Nicholas Winton, a documentary on his efforts:

“I found out that the children of refugees and other groups of people who were enemies of Hitler weren’t being looked after. I decided to try to get permits to Britain for them. I found out that the conditions which were laid down for bringing in a child were chiefly that you had a family that was willing and able to look after the child, and £50, which was quite a large sum of money in those days, that was to be deposited at the Home Office. The situation was heartbreaking. Many of the refugees hadn’t the price of a meal. Some of the mothers tried desperately to get money to buy food for themselves and their children. The parents desperately wanted at least to get their children to safety when they couldn’t manage to get visas for the whole family. I began to realize what suffering there is when armies start to march.”

Winton set up his rescue operation at his hotel in Prague, taking applications from parents and registering the children. The response was huge, with thousands of parents lining up.
Surprisingly, Winton recieved little resistance from the Nazis on his effort to move the children out of the country. 
“We were getting rid of those people Hitler wanted to get rid of,” Winton told ABC News in 2008. “I mean, you even had the Gestapo at Wilson Station helping the children onto the trains.”
After a few weeks, Winton left Trevor Chadwick in charge of the Prague operation and returned to London to negotiate where the children would go. Only Great Britain and Sweden agreed to take the children. 

REUTERS/Toby Melville
Original legal documents for entry into Great Britain are held by one of the so-called “Winton’s children.”

To get foster families willing to pay the £50 fee for each child, Winton advertised in newspapers, churches, and synagogues with pictures of the children. The effort worked. 
The last train of children left Prague on August 22, 1939. By the time it was all said and done, he had saved 669 children.
His greatest regret is that he could not save more. There was to be another train of children on September 1^st, but Hitler’s Germany invaded Poland that day. All borders were closed. The children were never heard from again.
Winton never told anyone of his mission, not even his wife, Grete. 50 years later, in 1988, his wife found a scrapbook with photos, documents, and the list of children. She brought it to a Holocaust historian, who arranged for Winton’s story to appear on BBC’s That’s Life. Unbeknownst to him, the audience at the taping was filled with his “children.”
You can see his emotional reaction here:

During an interview in 2008, Winton told a Slovakian teenager his philosophy on life: “You need to be prepared always to help other people if there is an opportunity to do so.”
“Winton’s children,” as they are called, have gone onto extraordinary lives. Here are just a few: 

• Karel Reisz, film director of The French Lieutenant’s Woman, Isadora and Sweet Dreams
• Joe Schlesinger, journalist and news correspondent for Canadian Broadcasting Company
• Lord Alfred Dubs, a former minister in the cabinet of former British Prime Minister Tony Blair
• Lady Milena Grenfell-Baines, a patron of the arts whose father, Rudolf Fleischmann, saved Thomas Mann from the Nazis
• Dagmar Símová, a cousin of the former U.S. Secretary of State, Madeleine Albright
• Tom Schrecker, a Reader’s Digest manager
• Hugo Marom, a famous aviation consultant and a founder of the Israeli Air Force
• Vera Gissing, the author of Pearls of Childhood and coauthor of Nicholas Winton And The Rescued Generation