Three Questions About Russia Everyone Should #AskSnowden

Three Questions About Russia Everyone Should #AskSnowden

While many folks rush to thank fugitive leaker Edward Snowden for "starting a conversation" around surveillance, they seem to forget that the U.S. isn't the only state which keeps an eye on people.

This is relevant because Snowden's message is one which calls for an end to global surveillance, while his revelations seem to specifically target just the U.S. national security apparatus.

Snowden has admitted he's adept at counterintelligence measures to keep the Russians and Chinese from hacking into his stolen secrets, which suggests that he knows of (and most likely stole hard evidence of) the tactics, techniques and procedures employed by some of the most invasive nations on the planet.

Snowden took part in a live Q&A chat, run by the Courage Foundation, on Thursday afternoon. He fielded all kinds of questions from a dedicated #AskSnowden Twitter stream.

User LibertyLynx — an outspoken critic of Russian intelligence, as well as the Snowden narrative — fired out three very telling questions. They point to a side of Snowden's generous debate that rarely gets debated, with ominous implications.

SORM is essentially Russia's version of the NSA's Internet and Telephone monitoring program, the same one they plan on using on everyone at Sochi.

Here's how investigative journalist Andrei Soldatov describes SORM (in a pretty awesome post that's worth reading):

This looming fortress, built in the 1980s as the KGB’s IT Center, forms a part of a row of buildings, known as the Lubyanka, where thousands of dissidents were imprisoned and interrogated back in the days of the feared Lavrentiy Beria, Stalin’s hated spymaster. Initially the Center was responsible for protecting computer networks and tracking down hackers, but in the late 2000s, it was tasked with monitoring social networks and the Internet as a whole.

Next question:

Dead whistleblowers. Dead activists. Dead journalists (while we're at it, here's a list). Often tied not so neatly to Moscow proper.

Next we have:

Ah yes, and finally we have that fine old public/private partnership, not unlike the one that landed American tech in hot water and keeps Chinese firms like Huawei in global limbo.

Kaspersky's helping hand to Moscow is well documented.

Now before this becomes a lament that everyone spies and so everyone else should just deal with it, I should say that people ought to make their governments answer for invasive surveillance (domestic or otherwise) programs.

The government ought to answer questions about its programs, demonstrate their efficacy, or else get rid of them.

Just as Snowden ought to answer questions about his narrative, demonstrate the efficacy of his motive, or else revise his statements.

中国太子党“有离岸秘密资产”

总部设在美国的一家独立新闻组织“按键 国际调查记者同盟”（ICIJ）最新发布的按键 调查报告称，“中国最高领导层近亲在离岸金融中心持有秘密资产”。
调查报告称，据“国际调查记者同盟”取得的机密档案和资料库显示，“中国高层领导的近亲在加勒比海避税天堂持有隐密的离岸公司，有助于中共 精英在海外隐藏巨额财富”。
报告声称：“资料显示，至少有5名现任或前任中共中央政治局常委的亲属在英属维尔京群岛和库克群岛等离岸金融中心持有离岸公司”，“其中包 括现任国家主席习近平、上届国务院总理温家宝及李鹏、上届国家主席胡涛涛以及已故领导人邓小平”。

密档资料库

该报告说，“这些文件包括国家主席习近平的姐夫在海外与他人合伙的地产公司注册资料，以及前国务院总理温家宝的儿子、女婿注册的BVI（英 属维尔京群岛）公司”。
报告还称，发生了多起贪腐丑闻的中国石油业与离岸中心有密切联系。中国三大石油国企中石油、中石化和中海油与密档中的数十家英属维尔京群岛 公司有关联。
此外，机密档案里还有近2.2万中国内地和香港的离岸投资者，其中至少包括15名中国富豪、全国人大代表和深陷贪腐丑闻的国企高管。密档内 还有1.6万名台湾离岸投资者的资料。
有关调查报告于美国当地时间星期二（1月21日）下午公布。据悉，这是国际调查记者同盟首次发布关于中国内地和香港的离岸投资者资料。
国际调查记者同盟说，密档文件还显示，普华永道、瑞银集团等会计事务所和欧美银行扮演了关键性的中间人角色，为中国投资者在英属维尔京群 岛、萨摩亚群岛等离岸金融中心开设资产信托和公司。
报告举例称，瑞士金融巨擎瑞士信贷集团曾协助温家宝的儿子注册BVI公司，当时温家宝仍是中国国务院总理。

多国记者调查

国际调查记者同盟表示，在两年前获得这批内含250万份文件的离岸密档后，与欧美和亚洲等地50多位记者合作，展开了为期一年半的跟进调查 与采访。
调查报告说，由多国记者组成的团队历时数月查阅机密档案和离岸金融中心的投资者名单，过程困难重重。
除了机密文件，调查团队还综合了数百份公开档案，如公司档案、物业记录、财务披露以及诉讼、监管和犯罪调查的相关文件。
世界各地50多家媒体机构从去年开始分析这些机密档案，揭露了10个离岸金融管辖地10万多个离岸公司的交易情况以及公司的实际持有者。
该组织称，这些记者分别来自北京、台北、美国纽约、华盛顿、伯克利、西班牙马德里和德国慕尼黑。这是“大中华区记者有史以来首次与欧美同行 通力合作，进行话题高度敏感的调查报道”。
国际调查记者同盟透露，该组织的调查团队的合作伙伴包括香港《明报》、 台湾《天下杂志》、德国《南德意志报》和一家中国大陆的新闻机构。
不过，这家中国大陆媒体因受到中国当局警告而在去年11月退出团队，不得发布有关该数据库的报道。
国际调查记者同盟称，为免记者遭到打击报复，该组织决定不公开这家大陆媒体的名字。

国际调查记者同盟

香港《按键 明报》周三也刊登了按键 有关报道。该报说，非牟利新闻组织“国际调查记者同盟”

成立于1997年，主要靠民间捐款运营，总部设在美国首都华盛顿。
国际调查记者同盟成员来自世界60多个国家和地区，共有160多名记者和特派员。驻港代表是香港大学新闻及传播研究中心总监陈婉莹。
国际调查记者同盟的调查报告发布后，英国《卫报》在周三以“按键 中国太子党在加勒比避税天堂藏富”为题进行了报道，并以图文形式分析了调查报告中所提到的中共太子党的关系图，以及他们在海外设立离岸公司的情况。 但《卫报》也表示，有关离岸公司及其持有权是合法的，国际调查记者同盟获得的的密档和资料库文件并未显示多少这些离岸公司成立后的相关商业 活动。
报道说，由于国内相关法规的限制，离岸公司可以成为中国合法企业在海外经营的一个重要工具。

ICIJ 公開紅二代境外公司名單與中共內鬥

Will China EVER fight a war with US ? Destroying the very financial system that hoard their money ? Nuking US cities that their children, wife and girlfriends holding Green Card ? China ass kissers, wake up.

 美 國獨立新聞組織「國際調查記者同盟」（The Center for Public Integrity簡稱ICIJ）昨日公開大批中共紅二代及富豪持有英屬維爾京群島（簡稱BVI）的境外公司名單，當中不乏中共政治局現任及前任常委的家 屬，包括習近平姐夫鄧家貴、前總理溫家寶的女婿劉春航、兒子溫雲松、前總理李鵬的女兒 李小琳、前國家主席胡錦濤的堂姪胡翼時、已故中共元老鄧小平的女婿吳 建常、已故中共元帥葉劍英的姪子葉選基、已故開國大將粟裕的孫兒粟志軍、前中國人民銀行行長戴相龍的女婿車峰、已故中共元老彭真之子傅亮，以及已故國家副 主席王震之子王之、王軍和孫女王京京等。

會 計師A說，開設BVI公司，不外乎是用來隱藏資產避稅、逃稅，又或從事某些業務、交易時，必須隱藏身份，目前《明報》已報導溫家寶的女兒溫如春，透過一間 名為Fullmark Consultants的BVI，向投資銀行摩根大通收取約1400萬港元的巨額顧問費，而Fullmark Consultants正是其丈夫劉春航於2004年成立，當中難免令人覺得有瓜田李下、利用關係收受利益問題。

現在，ICIJ揭如此多中共紅二代及富豪持有BVI，當中包括習總書記的姐夫鄧 家貴，習總是查還是不查？雖知一查下去、小則逃稅、大則涉以權謀私、貪贓枉法，習總聲稱要打虎，周永 康以外，其他老虎，打還是不打？

更有趣的是，名單中獨缺江澤民、曾慶紅的家人，那，是事 實本是如此，還是提供材料的人、早已將有關材料收起？今次ICIJ公開資料，又是否中共內部權鬥、其中一派所下的一著棋，連ICIJ 也不自知？

難怪B說，習上台後，雖薄熙來下獄、周永康被拘，但中共權鬥未息，宮庭鬥爭、恐陸續有來！

 

Motown really had a hold on the Beatles

The Beatles, Nov. 1 1963.  AP

This is part of a series of essays to mark the 50th anniversary of the Beatles' first American television appearance on CBS's "The Ed Sullivan Show."

On their second album, the Beatles wore their influences on the record sleeve. Released in the U.K. less than three months before the Fab Four's U.S. invasion, "With the Beatles" featured eight original compositions, one Chuck Berry cover, one show tune and a whole lot of Motown.

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What does the Beatles' name mean?

 The Chuck Berry cover, "Roll Over Beethoven," was a natural, as the St. Louis guitar slinger was a prime influence on John Lennon's rock 'n' roll soul right from his first band The Quarrymen. "If you tried to give rock 'n' roll another name, you might call it Chuck Berry," Lennon once said. The McCartney-sung "Till There Was You" -- which the Beatles performed on their debut "Ed Sullivan Show" performance on Feb. 9, 1964 -- was penned by Iowan tunesmith Meredith Wilson for the smash stage-and-screen production The Music Man. It foreshadowed later McCartney compositions like "When I'm Sixty-Four" and "Maxwell's Silver Hammer."

• Complete coverage of The Beatles: 50 Years Later

As for Motown, like the rest of the world in the early '60s, all the Beatles were entranced by the sounds pumping out of the hit factory Berry Gordy built in Detroit, and they found them to be the perfect playmates for their own new ditties like "All My Loving" and "It Won't Be Long."

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The Beatles: Backstage at "The Ed Sullivan Show"

 On "With the Beatles," Lennon belted out "Please Mister Postman" with Paul McCartney and George Harrison as backup singers crooning their best Marvelettes-style "oohs". On the Beatles' version of the Miracles' "You've Really Got A Hold on Me," Lennon boldly used his trademark rasp for Smokey Robinson's sweet falsetto. His brash pipes also worked as a perfect match to Barrett Strong's vocal bravado on "Money (That's What I Want)." As on "Postman," the Beatles went into girl-group mode with Harrison drawing a rare lead vocal on "Devil in Her Heart," a remake of The Donays' "Devil in His Heart," released on Correc-Tone Records. And this too had a Motown connection, as Donays' singer Yvonne Vernee would soon leave the Detroit girl group to join another: Motown recording artists The Elgins.

35 Photos

Legends of Motown

 In the ultimate tribute, the Beatles even wrote their own Motown-style song, 1963's "This Boy" and released it as the B-side of "I Want to Hold Your Hand." Harrison described the song as "John trying to do Smokey." The Beatles performed it during their second "Ed Sullivan Show" performance on February 16, 1964 in Miami Beach. In the months and years after the Beatles' initial famed sets, Ed Sullivan would invite Motown's new sensations the Supremes to his stage ... over and over again. "The girls," as Sullivan referred to Diana Ross and Co., would perform on CBS on a whopping 17 Sunday nights.
And, proving that the Liverpool-Detroit connection was a two-way-street, in November of '64, The Supremes released an album of Mersey Beat covers called "A Bit of Liverpool." Mixed in were a couple of Motown originals, including "You've Really Got a Hold on Me." So, yes, the Supremes version featured Diana Ross doing John Lennon doing Smokey Robinson.

FCPO - It IS Still Waiting For A Lead - 1/27/2014

 
The market continues to go higher. The Stochastic crossed above its 20's signal line on last Monday which effectively confirmed a buy signal. I bought in on the next day when price went above the signal day high. I am now using the bottom band as my stop and if price fails to go further up, then it may be prudent to switch the stop to prior day low or lightly below the middle band. The Stochastic continues to rise and it is now crossing above its 50's signal line, this is adding points to the bull. The MACD has turned positive and rising. I would need to see it crossing up above its zero signal line before having confidence to call a return of the bull. Another merit to the buyer is that price has managed to close above the middle band. The DMI has begun to act strange as both the D+ and D- are both declining at the same time. This is quite rare but it is telling us there is no real strength in the market as both the buyers and sellers are taking a back step. But the falling ADX confirms that the prior sell cycle has ended. But its descent to the 20's level is also telling us the market is going into another sideway mode.

At the time writing the nearest fractal high is at 2669, so we would need to see price goes above that level in order to be confirmed of a real bull market. Of course with prices consolidating the past few days, we may get a new fractal high soon. I will probably get to discuss about this on the coming week.

 
The weekly chart's  Stochastic and MACD remain negative. The only possible "silver lining" for the bull is that both of them has stopped falling and went flat. So this may mean the bull may still has some chances to fight for another day. The DMI stays positive with the D+ expanding outwards again, this is telling us that the buyers are flexing their muscle again. The falling D- means the sellers are getting out. As for the Japanese Candlestick, there is nothing to excite me yet as the current week's Candlestick has not able to close above the last black Candlestick. If we solely reading the Japanese Candlestick pattern trading , there is no confirmed reversal formation here. I would need to see price closes above the top band to get exciting again for the buy side. Meanwhile the all important 2485 support must hold.

I think this market wants to take a hint from the US Dollars , but unfortunately it has not been forthcoming any sooner as it has been wishy washy about its own next course of direction. I find this is very strange as most of the emerging currencies have been collapsing , is there any other logical choice out there ? But oh well, we just to wait patiently.

The Year Of Horse is just days away, I would like to wish all my friends and visitors a very Profitable and Blissful New Year with Excellent Good Health.

• FKLI - Nasty Corrections Begins ? -  1/27/2014

 
Price did not go back above the bottom band as there is where I have been placing my stop. The market lost 12 points last week which was not really something to shout about. But in term of chart formation, there is something significant as Friday's closing is now lower than the recent low of 1797.50.  Meanwhile the indicators continues to deteriorate as the MACD keeps falling and it is now solidly below the zero signal line. The Stochastic is inside the oversold zone but please note the ADX has begun to rise. So for this moment , the MACD is getting increasing important for reading the chart.  The DMI is also beginning to "expand" outward , this is telling us that  the sellers are getting braver and the buyers are retreating further. As last Friday DJIA fell by a shocking 318 points, it is almost certain that we would see FKLI gapping down on the coming Monday.

 
The weekly chart is singing praises for the bear. The Stochastic has been falling like a rock and it may be crashing through its 50's level by the coming week. The MACD stays negative and falling. The DMI remains positive but it has been closing its gap. The rising D- means the sellers are getting stronger and the falling D+ means the buyers are getting scare. The ADX has just begun to fall, a solid confirmation that the prior cycle has ended. But it does not confirm a new cycle yet. Price has now closed below the middle band which is a de facto 20 periods moving average, this has added more weight to the sellers. I would watch intensely whether the bottom band can provide the final defense line to  the quick evaporating bulls.

I have been writing about the presence of a bearish divergence at the chart which usually would bring on a major correction and they are also usually very ugly. Despite all the sweet talks by fundamental "experts" misleading the public that our economy is "strong" and therefore would NOT be affected adversely by coming international storms, the charts have been telling us otherwise. The Ringgit is another example, something that I had warned of last year of its current depreciation. The hard bitter truth remains that our nation's finances have NEVER been strong since the last financial crisis, Dr. Mahathir's refusal to take medication has merely delayed and prolonged our sufferings. This time because of China's impending financial meltdown, I think we are going to suffer even more pains than ever.

Nassim (No Brainer) Taleb Get Laughed At

 

 Author and philosophical finance whiz Nassim Taleb began 2014 with a bold challenge to his fellow economic thinkers.

"I would love to debate a prominent economist LIVE in front of an audience… Nobody has accepted so far," he wrote on his Facebook page a few days ago.

So who is up for the challenge?

"I think any economist who debated Taleb would want to use this," The Week's John Aziz quipped on Twitter, pointing to this 2010 interview where Taleb argues shorting treasuries is a "no brainer" due to the U.S. deficit and the risk of inflation.

"So long as you see the picture of Larry Summers going to Davos, you have to stay short U.S. Treasuries for another year. It means they (the Obama administration) don’t know what’s going on,” Taleb told MoneyNews' Dan Weil in 2010.

Taleb went off on Aziz and others, arguing that his actual profit and loss ("PL") wasn't indicative of his 2010 statement, which would have presumably lost money.

The Beatles, Brian Wilson, Motown and Copyright Law

Early in the morning of December 17, 2013, three all but unannounced digital-only compilations were quietly released. So quietly, in fact, that at first there were concerns that they might only be available for a few hours, which caused a rush on downloads that strained the servers at iTunes and Amazon. Why all the sudden hubbub? Because these compilations consisted of ultra-rare and mostly previously unreleased (even in bootleg circles) recordings made in 1963 by The Beatles, Beach Boys mastermind Brian Wilson, and the collective geniuses at Motown Records.
The reason they came out in the waning days of 2013 is down to the vagaries of copyright law. A recent change in European copyright law extends the copyright period of recordings from 50 to 70 years, but only if the recordings in question are commercially released; otherwise, copyright expires 50 years after the songs were recorded. In other words, these songs would have gone into the public domain yesterday morning if they hadn't been commercially released: now the copyrights are good until the end of 2083.
The reason for the digital-only, unheralded releases is that the material in question is really aimed at the most hardcore fans: there's nothing particularly revelatory on any of the sets in terms of fantastic buried gems. That said, each has its own fascinations. The Beatles Bootleg Recordings 1963 starts off with early studio run-throughs of familiar songs which are mostly of interest to hardcore studio nerds listening for lyrical changes or different instrumental riffs. But the bulk of the 59-track (!!!) set consists of live BBC sessions that capture the band at their most infectious and energetic.
The 22-track anthology of early Brian Wilson productions, The Big Beat 1963, finds the mercurial genius right at the point where he's learning how to command the recording studio; by 1964, this will result in deathless pop classics like "The Warmth of the Sun" and "I Get Around."  But while these experiments with The Beach Boys, The Honeys (a vocal trio featuring Brian's girlfriend Marilyn Rovell), and others have their moments, they're mostly juvenilia, throwbacks to the '50s rock that inspired Wilson rather than portents to the gorgeously complex pop symphonies he was about to start writing.

The 52-track Motown 1963 Unreleased follows up on five different collections of 1962 rarities that came out in late 2012, including separate discs of unreleased jazz and gospel sessions. Unlike the rough and ready demos and outtakes on the Beatles and Wilson collections, the fabled Motown assembly line created these finished radio-ready mixes that for various reasons didn't make Berry Gordy's final cut. To be fair, Marvin Gaye's "Talking 'Bout the Limbo" would have done his career no favors, and songs like R. Dean Taylor's abashed-stalker anthem "Respectable Distance Away" even now sound too weird to get within sniffing distance of the charts. But they all sound amazing in that classic early-Motown style.

As the years go on, look for these download-only fan releases to officially become A Thing. Capitol Records already seems to be surprised at how well The Beatles Bootleg Recordings 1963 has done: even retailing at a hefty $39.99, the set sold over 7000 copies its first week, making it onto the Billboard album charts at #172. Not bad for an album that's basically just a legal maneuver. To real Beatles diehards, this means only one thing: in 2017, Capitol will release the fabled "Carnival of Light," a legendary 14-minute psychedelic experiment that has long been the holy grail of Beatles collectors.

不愿陪睡中共高官 爆汤唯被封杀两年

汤在2008年底通过「优才计划」成为港人，搞笑的是，

北京当局在2011年的《建党伟业》中，仍然删除了汤的所有戏份，该戏上档同时，网上持续 劣评如潮，并被斥为《贱党伪业》。但《人民日报》去年抛出「新香港人」的观点，劝喻港人接受大陆移民时，唯一的配图竟然正是汤唯!当时就有粉丝怒 斥当局脸皮太厚。

2007 年汤唯凭藉《色，戒》而一炮走红，彷彿就在昨日，但她在过去七年间的从影经历，称得上历经波折，曾被北京封杀，曾被传拒绝陪睡中共高官，亦曾被官 媒列为新香港人的代表。

与众多科班出生的演员相比，导演系毕业的汤唯成名较晚。直到《色，戒》才第一次走上大屏幕，虽然大获好评，但因为戏中激情的表现而被大陆封杀。但 也有消息指，她是不愿陪睡某中共高官而被禁影。当年针对她的禁影，正是从当今首富王健林的万达院线开始。汤唯远离舞台整整两年，但并未消沉，而是 选择远赴英伦求学。偶尔回国也是四处义务演出，又将自己大部份的奖金捐献给一个戏剧基金。直到2009年她与张学友合作出演《月满轩尼诗》，才迎 来了另一个演艺高峯。她在短短几年间，成为数个影展的影后。



汤在2008年底通过「优才计划」成为港人，搞笑的是，北京当局在2011年的《建党伟业》中，仍然删除了汤的所有戏份，该戏上档同时，网上持续 劣评如潮，并被斥为《贱党伪业》。但《人民日报》去年抛出「新香港人」的观点，劝喻港人接受大陆移民时，唯一的配图竟然正是汤唯!当时就有粉丝怒 斥当局脸皮太厚。

该消息传出後有网友评论称，中共官员淫乱向来不是问题，下面的官员也是公开包养情妇，小三、二奶层出不穷，整个社会风气败坏。另有网民称，封杀汤 唯的这个高官应该能量很大，这年头的演艺圈女星，不陪权贵们、官员们上床，想轻松上戏，那就是做梦!

'Marvel's Agents Of S.H.I.E.L.D.' Reveals How Coulson Survived

The steel-jawed S.H.I.E.L.D. agent has finally learned the truth about his resurrection, but the answer only leads to more questions.

At long last, the truth is out there, and now Agent Phil Coulson knows that Tahiti isn't the magical place he once thought it was.
On the latest episode of "Marvel's Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.," titled "The Magical Place," the steel-jawed S.H.I.E.L.D. agent finally learned the truth about how he's still alive. Of course, Coulson was killed in action by Loki during "Marvel's The Avengers," but is somehow still alive on TV — and now, both Coulson and the audience know how that's possible.

During the episode, Coulson learned that he wasn't dead for a handful of seconds or minutes, as he was previously led to believe. Instead, he was dead for days, and underwent numerous procedures and surgeries as ordered by Director Nick Fury himself. "He moved Heaven and Earth" to bring Coulson back to life, according to Doctor Streiten (played by "Firefly" veteran Ron Glass), one of the many surgeons who worked on Coulson.

After no fewer than seven operations that involved high-tech machines poking and prodding a conscious Coulson's exposed brain, everybody's favorite Phil somehow came back to life, albeit "without the will to live," according to Streitan. Hence why S.H.I.E.L.D. implanted false memories of Tahiti: They wanted to give Coulson something pleasant to hold onto, something that would make him want to live again.

So, that's it — or is it? Sure, we know more about Coulson's death and resurrection, but not everything. Some key questions remain:

1. Why does Fury need Coulson alive so badly? 

Sure, Coulson's awesome; why not resurrect him, if you have the means? But by all accounts, resurrection wasn't just a hard process, but an unethical and painful one, to the extent that Coulson repeatedly asked to die during the procedures. There must be some secret, some purpose, that Coulson himself isn't even aware of — something about him that makes him crucial to Fury's plans. Otherwise, why put the man through so much turmoil?

2. What if the procedures all failed? 

 What if Streiten and the other doctors weren't able to bring Coulson back to life after all? What if we're just hearing about their failed attempts, and the real success was implanting Coulson's memories on a Life Model Decoy, or something similar? As a series, "S.H.I.E.L.D." has been far from forthcoming about its secrets, so there's something suspicious about last night's relatively straightforward explanation for Coulson's continued survival.

3. Can we rule out magic? 

I don't think so. I maintain my hunch that somehow, some way, Loki is involved in Coulson still being alive, even if not directly. Coulson doesn't keep describing Tahiti as a "magical" place without a reason. Plus, Streitan tells Coulson that the trauma he endured was "ungodly." Interesting choice of words, right? If any Marvel Studios movie star is game to log a meaningful appearance on "S.H.I.E.L.D.," Tom Hiddleston is the one. Loki was the one who killed Coulson; who's to say he's not the one who brought him back?

No matter what happens next with the Coulson mystery, at least we have our first major piece of the puzzle in quite a long while. The question of "how" Coulson survived is, for now, at least partially answered. The better question to ask now is this: Coulson's alive, but why? Who still needs him alive, and for what purpose?

Do you buy Marvel's explanation for Coulson's resurrection?

Some Americans Are Threatening To Stop Drinking Jim Beam Now That It's Owned By A Japanese Company



Nothing ignites American patriotism quite like the foreign acquisition of a beloved brand.

So yesterday, when Japanese liquor giant Suntory announced it is purchasing Beam Inc. — which distills Jim Beam and Maker's Mark — Americans did the only thing that seemed right. They complained on social media.

And people hit Beam where it hurt, by threatening to switch to Jack Daniel's.

There's a lot more where that came from on Beam's Facebook page.

This style of nationalism might be a little misplaced. Shouldn't we be proud that foreign companies want to buy American brands? Presumably, Suntory bought Jim Beam because they liked it. It's the same reason that Budweiser still feels pretty American years after it merged with Belgian InBev.

Plus, people might be surprised to learn what's already foreign-owned.

"Consider 7-11 stores, Popsicle ice pops, and Frigidaire appliances," writes the New Yorker's Vauhini Vara. "All American icons that are owned, respectively, by Japanese, Anglo-Dutch, and Swedish companies." From the New Yorker:

Certain brands serve as especially potent symbols of American culture; Budweiser and Jim Beam, each more than a century old, are among them. When foreign companies move to acquire such brands, it naturally triggers a cultural anxiety about the decline of American influence. (In a December report, the Pew Research Center found that more than half of the people it surveyed believed that the U.S. “plays a less important and powerful role as a world leader than it did a decade ago.”)

And as Vara notes, if anything, Suntory wants to spread American whiskey to the rest of the world. Maybe that should be a source of pride.

FCPO - The Market Holds At Vital Support Level - 1/20/2014

The market bounds back strongly on last Thursday and closed above the bottom band which effectively closed off my previous shorts positions. The Stochastic has already turned positive, but I would wait for it to cross up above its 20's signal line before deciding engaging in a new buy position. The MACD still remain negative and below its zero signal line which is bearish. The DMI is also remaining negative but the ADX has stopped rising and turned flat. The flat ADX is a good sign for the bull as it may mean the prior trend has stopped. So the game plan will be to wait for the Stochastic to cross above its 20's with price stays above the bottom band before engaging a new buy position. And sell again if price goes below the recent low again.

The weekly chart's indicators all seem to favor the bears as the Stochastic has now fallen below its 80's signal line. The MACD stays negative foe the second week. The DMI may still be positive but the D+ is falling and the D- has been rising fast. By the coming week we may see this turning negative. The only item that may still favor the bull is that the ADX is still falling as this may indicate that there is no new trend in the market yet. With that, I may want to interpret the current situation as another range bounding market. The most "encouraging" sign for the bull would be the vital support level of 2485 holds up when the market went down to test and was soundly beaten back. As long as this support level is not breached, I would still hold some hopes in the return of the bull.

The US Dollar has resumed its ascent the past few days, maybe it will lend a helping hand to the FCPO bull ?

FKLI - The Beginning Of The End ? - 1/20/2014

 

The market did an one day reversal to the upside but did not hit my stop at 1842, then it went to continue its previous trend by losing more ground for the next 2 trading days. I am adjusting my stop to the bottom band as to protect the profit. The MACD continues to fall and it is almost going through its zero signal line which is the boundary to mark out the bull and bear zone. The Stochastic has already gone into the oversold zone. I am keeping a close eye on this indicator as the ADX has been falling and it has now fallen to 19's. Together with the wriggling DMI,  they are indicating that there is no strong trend in this market yet , so the Stochastic would be a more appropriate indicator to use to trade the market.

The weekly chart confirmed last week's sell signal by going lower than the signal week's low. The Stochastic has just crossed below its 80's level which is by itself is another sell signal. So is the MACD which has just gone negative. The ADX has stayed flat for the 3rd week now, it may not be a signal for a new trend, but it is confirming the end of the prior cycle. The DMI is staying positive but the gap between the D+ and D- is fast closing.

As mentioned here the previous weeks, there is a bearish divergence formation at the chart so I would getting myself prepared for a possible major market breakdown soon. This should coincide with the fundamental sides of our nation's economy as we may be near to end of our road soon.

恶魔懊悔 ? 中共开国上将之女向文革受迫害师生道歉

在毛泽东发动和领导的文革中有成千上万人被打死。

中共开国上将宋任穷的女儿、文革红卫兵领袖宋彬彬周日（1月12日）向文革受害师生公开道歉。
宋彬彬还对她当年所在的北师大女附中被造反学生打死的副校长卞仲耘表示永久的悼念和歉 意。

相关内容

    观察：官媒高调报道陈毅之子为文革恶行道歉
    陈毅之子陈小鲁“为文革造反行为道歉”
    文革红卫兵为当年恶行刊登道歉

这是继中共元帅陈毅之子陈小鲁就文革中的行为公开道歉后的又一次当年红卫兵的公开忏悔之举。
据报道，1966年8月18日，当在天安门城楼上检阅红卫兵的毛泽东得知向他献红卫兵袖章的 宋彬彬的名字是“文质彬彬”的“彬”字时便说，“要武嘛”。
报道说，宋彬彬随后发表署名“宋要武”的文章《我给毛主席带上红袖章》。 但宋彬彬否认文章为她所写，并否认曾改名宋要武。

反思文革

在周日举行的北师大女附中老三届学生和老师的聚会上，宋彬彬说，她很久一直盼望能有这么一个向当年遭受迫害的老师和同学道歉的机会。
她说，北师大女附中的文革是从1966年6月2日她所参与贴出的第一张大字报开 始的。学校的正常秩序从此遭到破坏，许多老师受到伤害。
宋彬彬向当时的所有老师和同学表示道歉。她说，希望她的道歉能够引起大家的反思，并说，只有进行了真正的反思才能走的更远。
宋彬彬还说，她希望所有在文革中做过错事、伤害过老师同学的人，都能直面自己，反思文革，求得原谅，达成和解。
文革中红卫兵的打人之风很快由学校蔓延到社会。据中国媒体报道，在1966年8 月下旬至9月底的40多天里，仅北京一地就有1700余人被打死。

宋彬彬道歉使文革敏感话题再受关注

1966年8月18日，当在天安门城楼上检阅红卫兵的毛泽东得知向他献红卫兵袖章的宋彬 彬的名字是“文质彬彬”的“彬”字时便说，“要武嘛”。

文革红卫兵领袖宋彬彬周日（1月12日）向文革受害师生公开道歉，再次令极具争议的文革话题受到 关注；中共一直维持30多年前作出的官方结论，不许自由讨论文革。
中国开国上将宋任穷的女儿宋彬彬向文革受害师生道歉之前，陈毅元帅之子陈小鲁去年也曾就文革期间做红卫兵行为表示过忏悔和道歉。
在“唱红打黑”的重庆市委书记薄熙来被整肃前，在2012年两会记者会上，当时的中国总理温家宝强调“文革错误的遗毒和封建影响并 没有完全清除”。中国许多自由派人士长期以来一直呼吁官方对文革和毛泽东作彻底检讨。
原中共中央农村政策研究室、国务院农村工作研究室研究员姚监复认为，要肃清文革遗毒 就要追究文革的真正罪魁祸首。他认为文革的罪魁祸首不是“四人帮”，而是毛泽东。
1981年中共通过“关于建国以来党的若干历史问题的决议”，虽然否定文化大革命 10年和毛泽东的晚年错误，但并没有追毛泽东的责任， 而只是批判了所谓的“林彪”、“四人帮”两个“反革命集团”。

文革讨论

30多年来中共维持了1981年决议对文革的评价，禁止质疑官方结论的讨论，文革讨论成为禁区。
但习近平上台后提出不能用改革开放后30年否定前30年，中国领导人更多地公开颂扬毛泽东。在这种背景下，关于要求正面评价文革和 文革动机的网络舆论有所增加。
左派人士在批判中国官僚腐败和社会贫富悬殊的现实的同时，对发动文革的“无产阶级专政下继续革命”的理论作出肯定。
有分析认为，这种崇拜毛泽东，赞美“文革”的舆论背后的部分原因是评价“文革”的主体发生了改变，意即网络舆论的主力大多是60后 和70后，他们对文革记忆模糊或完全没有记忆。
曾经在文革初期组织“首都红卫兵西城纠察队”的陈小鲁去年反思文革的言论遭到左派人士的嘲讽。网络评论员黎阳说，“西纠”在 1966年存在的短短四个月中作恶多端，与“血统论”、“破四旧”密不可分，而且制造了很多暴力行为。
黎阳指出陈小鲁的道歉等于招供了文革中的许多暴力是他们这些人的责任，并非受毛泽东指使。当时的事实是，毛泽东三令五申不许搞武 斗、不许使用暴力、反对抄家。

“宋要武”

宋彬彬道歉时说，希望所有在文革中做过错事、伤害过老师同学的人，都能直面自己，反思文革，求得原谅，达成和解。她还对她当年所在 的北师大女附中被造反学生打死的副校长卞仲耘表示永久的悼念和歉意。
报道说，1966年8月18日，当在天安门城楼上检阅红卫兵的毛泽东得知向他献红卫兵袖章的宋彬彬的名字是“文质彬彬”的“彬”字 时便说，“要武嘛”。
后来许多回忆文革文章流传宋彬彬曾经打死九个人的说法。 但海外政治评论家马悲鸣认为，关于宋彬彬暴行的根据不过是些流传甚广的传言。在卡玛制作的纪录文革的电影《八九点钟的太阳》中，宋彬 彬澄清说，她不但没打死过人，没打过人，连抄家都没参加过。
《八九点钟的太阳》的制作人卡玛自己也说过，经多方调证后她认为宋彬彬不是一个有暴力倾向的人，她本人与北师大女附中打死女校长卞 仲耘的事没有关系，也没有参加过武斗。
宋彬彬是否对北师女附中校长被打死负有直接或间接的责任是许多文革亲历者辩论的话题之一。还有人说，卞仲耘副校长被北师大女附中红 卫兵暴力殴打致死时，邓小平的三女儿邓榕也是该校红卫兵负责人之一。

没有澄清真相的道歉是伪道歉 

侮辱众人的智商

  The Bitch
在“十年浩劫”中，北师大女附中副校长卞仲耘是第一个被殴致死的老师，而宋彬彬等人则是 这起活动的主要负责人。

继陈小鲁道歉之后，1月12日，宋彬彬在卞仲耘副校长雕像面前，也向当年的老师、同学以及老师的 后人道歉。然而，纵观宋彬彬1500余字的道歉信，我们感到这封信与其说是在道歉，还 不如说是在给自己当年的行为辩解，最明显的便是在有关卞仲耘副校长被殴致死这件事上。

在“十年浩劫”中，北师大女附中副校长卞仲耘是第一个被殴致死的老师，而宋彬彬等人则是这起批 斗活动的主要负责人。但是，有关卞校长被殴致死的问题上，宋彬彬对自己当时的所作所为，只有一句话，即“我和刘进曾两次去大操场和后 院阻止，看到围观的同 学散了，以为不会有事了，自己也走了。”紧接着，她立刻写道，“因此，我对卞校长的不幸遇难是有责任的。”

写出这样的文字，宋彬彬向读者展现的哪里是一个需要道歉的人，感谢都 来不及呢。据当时一些“黑五类”学生回忆，当时看到校长们被殴的惨相，感到很可怕，但 是自己一点不敢露出同情的样子，因为同情这些校长，自己会立刻惹火上 身。在这种情况下，宋彬彬竟然力排众议，挺身而出，出面劝阻，这需要多大的勇气啊！这样 的一个人，不但不需要背上沉重的十字架，而是需要列入英雄榜。早两 年，北师大女附中授予宋彬彬“荣誉校友”称号，引来无数反对声，看来是反对错了，这样一个大英雄，不是“荣誉校友”又是什么呢？

但是，据众多目击者回忆，卞校长被折磨了整整三个小时，包括用 带铁钉的棍棒和军用铜头皮带殴 打，用军靴践踏。 即便在卞校长被殴致死后，这些学生还不放过，将她放到一辆垃圾车上，用风雨衣盖上，很多 老师要在旁边看看，都不允许。直至七点，打电话请 示了市委，才被允许通知医院和家人。在这些回忆录中，从来没有人提及当时有学生领袖出来劝阻。

退一万步讲，即使宋彬彬确实进行了劝阻，那么在长达三个多小时的残酷折磨行动中，她除了进行劝 阻外，究竟还做过什么呢？在整个过程中，她究竟有没有打过卞校长，或者有没有用其他方式侮辱过卞校长等人。如果在长达三个小时的折磨 中，只是进行过一次劝 阻，其他没有行动，这是当年一个学生领袖的真实表现吗？
卢梭写《忏悔录》的原则是，“当时我是卑鄙龌龊的，

就写我的卑鄙龌龊；当时我是善良忠厚、道德高尚的，就写我的善良忠厚和道德高尚。”卢 梭的忏悔录之所以划过时空，成为一种永恒，就是因为他在忏悔的同时，没有漏下自己曾经的“卑鄙龌龊”。
显然，在宋彬彬的道歉信中，我们只看到了她“善良忠厚和道德高尚”的一面，却没有任何“卑鄙龌 龊的”行为。这样说，不是搞有罪推定，只是你沉默了近50年之后，正儿八经的出面道歉，所披露的事实，总应该符合一个基本的历史逻辑 吧！一方面以仍然以学 生领袖自居，高姿态地来表示自己要为此事负责领导责任，一方面说得自己又像荷花一般出淤泥而不染，在那场如火如荼的“革命行动”中， 你这样一个学生领袖真 的是如此文质彬彬吗？

宋彬彬的道歉如果真诚的，那么应该坦诚地回顾一下那天自己到底做了什么，哪怕确实曾经进行过劝 阻，那么在劝阻前后，还做过什么事。譬如，从众多回忆录来看，虽然将卞校长殴打致死未必是学生领袖们的本意，但是将校级领导揪出残酷 虐待一事，完全是有计 划有组织的。宋彬彬本人究竟在事前事后干了些什么，应该承担哪些具体的责任，这些问题就有必要交待与道歉。

相反，如果不肯澄清这些真相，只是笼统地说一句“对不起”，甚至在道歉的时候，大谈自己曾经的“劝阻”。那么，我们有理由认为，这样 的道歉，实际是希望掩盖自己过去的所作所为，以此改变在国人心中的丑陋形象。这种道歉虽然来得很迟，却依然是虚伪的、是充满做秀味 的。

宋彬彬强调自己再不道歉就来不及了，因为那些老师年岁已高，再迟就等不及了。事实上，卞仲耘校 长早在1966年就被学生打场打死，要说迟已经迟了四十多年了。但真正的迟还不是老师们能否听得到这道歉声，而是宋彬自己也年过花 甲，如果不趁现在及时、 真诚的道歉，那么自己也永远没有机会真正的忏悔了。虽说“人之将死，其言也善”，但是，我们遗憾地看到，宋彬彬在这垂暮之年 、白发斑斑的时候，依然玩的是伪道歉的花招。与其如此，还不如关在家里好好反省自己，别跑出来侮辱众人的智商。

 

中国的下一个目标对付印尼

曝光14亿中国人彻底遗忘的一片领土：纳土纳群岛

Just wait for some oil or gas get discovered there......

广东省潮州人张杰绪，荷兰入侵印尼前在纳土纳岛曾建立王国。纳土纳群岛距曾母暗沙约400公里，与曾母暗沙纬度略同。距中国大陆陆地约 1900公里，相当于广州到北京的距离。距加里曼丹岛最近之处225公里

广东省潮州人张杰绪，荷兰入侵印尼前在纳土纳岛曾建立王国。
　　纳土纳群岛距曾母暗沙约400公里，与曾母暗沙纬度略同。距中国大陆陆地约1900公里，相当于广州到北京的距离。距加里曼丹岛最近之 处225公里（台湾距大陆最近130公里）。

纳土纳群岛

1993年中国出版的一份地图把纳土纳列入版图，引起印尼强烈反弹，一度要求北京作出澄清。（或说1992年，中国将纳土纳群岛纳入中 国的专属经济区。）
　　纳士纳群岛一些比较早的华人家谱记载：清兵入关后消灭了南方的南明政权，在广东沿海岛屿上坚持抗清的几百残兵和几百家不服满清统治的渔 民逃到了南洋的一个小群岛上——荷兰人后来命名的纳士纳群岛！
　　纳吐纳群岛在当时不过是一块蛮荒之地，华人来到这片土地上劈荆斩棘，将它开拓建设成一方乐土，纳吐纳群岛成为华人的一个独立的土邦。
　　可到了一百多年前，在纳土纳岛首领（也算是国王）张杰绪去逝后，内部发生纷争，荷兰人乘机灭了张氏王国。印尼独立出荷兰后，纳土纳岛群 岛确能独立出印尼，像新加坡那样独立建国。
　　这个本来属于华人的地方，现在却成了印尼的领土，看到不由得心痛！
　　上世纪九十年代初期，东南亚传出这样一则未被证实的传 言：纳土纳岛群岛华人代表和中国大陆的领导人物邓有过秘密接触，邓表示在97香港回归后中国会考虑纳土纳岛群岛问题（使出独立出印尼成为华人国家？或成为中国的另一个“特别行政区”？）。
　　这则未被中国方面证实的小道消息确引起了印尼当局的高度重视，不久之后的1993年中国某出版社犯了一个小错误，当时出版的中国地图上 不小心把 纳土纳群岛列入中国版图，引起印尼方面的惊恐，印尼媒体也炒得沸沸扬扬，一度要求北京作出澄清。很多著名的媒体，像凤凰卫视、新加坡联合早报 都进行了报 导。

 

FCPO - A New Round Of Selling - 1/13/2014



A new sell signal came in on last Monday as price went below the middle band with the Stochastic turning negative. I sold on the next day when price went below the signal day low. Both the Stochastic and MACD are now negative and falling. The MACD has now gone below the zero signal line which I use to designate the bull/bear cycle. So unless it goes back up soon, I think the bear may has regain control of the market. The DMI has also turned negative on last Monday and now the ADX has begun to rise. This rising ADX is telling us a new cycle has begun.

I am placing my stop above the bottom band and will change to prior day high when if the Stochastic gone inside the oversold zone.

 

The weekly chart is beginning to favor the bear. The Japanese Candlestick is confirming a sell signal as the current Candlestick is big full black body that engulf both the past week's Doji and white body. By this pattern alone, it is already a confirmed sell signal. And this signal is further reinforced by the negative Stochastic which is now crossing down the 80's signal line. The MACD has also just turned negative and this is also further strengthening the sell signal. The DMI remains positive but the D- has been rising rapidly, this indicates that the sellers are gaining strength. The ADX has begun to fall and it is telling us the prior trend has stopped. The former fractal resistance of 2485 is now the support, breaching that level should see a new cycle of bear.

The market did not go to 2,900 level as per  the Fibonacci retracement calculation and the market seems to be going back into another bearish cycle. But I am not giving up on my earlier bullish reading that the market should be in an extremely bullish new cycle YET as there may be still a likely scenario that the market is caught in another large range bound mode. So now the support of 2485 is vital as to determine the bull/bear directions. But of course I will still take any new buy/sell trading signal as it comes.

FKLI - Listless But With More Bearish Bias -1/13/2014

I sold on last Monday as price went below the previous Friday signal day low. Both the Stochastic and MACD continue to fall but price seems to be caught in another directionless mode. The ADX has been falling and it may go below the 20's signal line. The DMI has turned negative but it is wriggling like a worm. Both these 2 are indicating a lack of trend in the market.

I am placing my stop at 1842 for now but when if price is to go further down, I would change my stop to the bottom band.

The weekly chart has flashed an initial sell signal as price closed below the top band with the Stochastic gone negative. If I am trading the weekly chart, I would sell if price goes below last week's low of 1817. The MACD remains positive but has already tilted its head and it may turn negative by the coming week. The ADX has turned flat which may be hinting that the prior trend has stopped.

With the presence of a bearish divergence at both the daily and weekly chart, any new buy signal should be treated with extra caution and any new sell signal should be participated with more enthusiasm. With the impending economic adjustments, the new year should be a tough year for Malaysians (at least for the initial few months), so I am more bearish biased on the market.

南水北调——一江污水向北流

王维洛
德国多特蒙德大学水资源专家

南水北调工程“对生态有影响”

南水北调东线工程于2013年12月通水，中线线工程将于2014年 完工。在工程即将竣工时，人们发现这个花费了数千亿人民币的南水北调工程缺乏最基础的数据，人们竟然不知道作为水源的汉江到底有多少 水可调，不知道北京缺 水的最主要原因是什么，不知道水源地污染的确切程度，更不知道水污染何时才能得到治理。工程完工后将要上马一大批补救的后续工程。总 之，南水北调工程决策 并没有可行性研究报告作为依据，决策在前，可行性论证在后，搞的还是文化大革命那一套。

一、南水北调工程搞的还是文化大革命那一套

南水北调工程分东线、中线和西线三个工程。东线工程是从扬州江都泵站抽长江水 利用大运河向天津和沿途各地输水；中线工程是利用汉江上的丹江口水库通过人工明渠向北京和沿途各地输水；西线工程是从雅砻江、大渡河 向黄河输水，然后顺黄 河东下，为沿途送水。最终调水总量为一千亿立方米。南水北调工程是世界上规模最大的、跨大流域最多（长江、淮河、黄河、海河）的巨型 调水工程。

为什么说南水北调工程搞的还是文化大革命那一套？有以下几点理由：

第一：南水北调工程搞的还是文化大革命中违反科学民主决策程序、领导拍脑袋做决策的那一套；

第二：南水北调工程反映的还是人定胜天的理念，而不是搞可持续发展。南水北调工程是和缺水问题的表面现象做斗争，而不能解决产生问 题的根本原因；南水北调并非到了非调不可、非调就没有生路的地步。

第三：南水北调工程与文化大革命中的许多工程一样是钓鱼工程，造价不断攀升，调水规模将不断扩大。工程完工并不意味工程的结束，而 是需要更多、更大的工程来弥补工程所造成的问题。

二、工程即将竣工才发现基础数据没有做好

2013年11月国务院南水北调工程建设委员会办公室主任鄂竟平在接受《中国经济周刊》访问时承认，南水北调工程的基础性工作没做 好。

什么是一个工程的基础性工作？就是基本数据的收集，整理和分析。对南水北调中线工程而言，最基础的数据就是北方缺多少水？为什么缺 水？作为水源的长江、汉江到底有多少水？有没有多余的水可供北调？水源地的污染情况如何？水污染能何时得到治理？

2001年北京取得了2008年奥运会的举办权。打着为北京奥运会提供清洁饮用水的旗号，2001年 11月中共中央和国务院做出了建设南水北调东、中线工程 的决定，2002年开工。在中共中央和国务院做出这个重大决定时，并没有通过了审查并被批准的工程可行性研究报告作为决策的依据。直到约七年之后，在 2008年10月21日国务院第32次常委会议才审议批准了《南水北调东、中线一期工程可行性研究总报告》。

就在决策之前，丹江口水库大坝加高、移民和分段 输水渠道建设等分工程都已经开工建设了。这是决策在前，可行性研究在后，一个完全颠倒的决策程序，是文化大革命的边施工、边设计、边勘测政策的翻版和创 新。

例如，中线工程以汉江的丹江口水库作为水源。汉江有多少水可供北调？在中线工程即将结束时还不清楚。根 据退休工程师邓联木的资料，1930年到1978年年均入库径流量379亿立方米，1979年到1990年年均433亿立方 米，1991年到2002年年 均262亿立方米，2003年到2010年年均371亿立方米。以哪个流量作为南水北调中线工程的基本数据？鄂竟平不能回答。

世界著名的水资源专家罗宾·克拉克（ROBIN CLARKE）在Water《水》一书中指出，取水量占径流比例越大，造成的水资源管理的问题越大。根据欧洲的经验，比例在百分之五以下，不会造成问题； 比例超过百分之二十，则会造成严重问题。因此南水北调中线工程输水之时，便是汉江河流生态系统死亡之日，如果不立即采取补救措施的 话。

三、人定胜天还是可持续发展？

《Kollapse》一书的作者贾德.戴蒙认为中国领导向来有人定胜天的观念。他将三峡大坝、南水北调和西部大开发这三大巨型工程 称为人定胜天思想的具体表现。

“和世界接轨”是一些专家为中国政府注释决策常用的办法，他们列举了世界上一些国家的调水工程，如美国 的、德国的等等。但是他们没有报道最新的发展和未来的趋势。在西方工业国家中，包括俄国，在二十世纪八十年代之后就放弃了巨型跨流域 的调水工程计划。如美 国、加拿大和墨西哥的北美大调水工程，前苏联的北水南调工程。这些国家之所以放弃这些跨流域的巨型调水工程，第一是因为认识到工程会 带来的严重的生态环境 后果，如前苏联的调水工程引起斯维尔河流量减少，使拉多加湖无机盐总量、矿化度、生物性堆积物增加，水质恶化；第二是可持续发展理念 的出现，可持续发展的 一个最基本概念就是利用当地的资源，跨流域的调水工程是和可持续发展理念背道而驰的。

四、治标不治本

谈到南水北调工程，就会联系到北京的缺水问题。根据中国专家的算法，北京的人均水资源量几年前还有 300立方米，和以色列相仿，现在减少到只有100立方米。地下水位每年下降90厘米，有些地区地面沉降十二三厘米。南水北调中线工 程计划每年为北京提供 10亿立方米的水。许多中国专家认为10亿立方米不够，希望立即扩大调水量。

其实北京是中国风水最好的城市之一。和北京在同一纬度上的首都有莫斯科、华沙、柏林、德国原首都波恩 等。流经北京的有五大河流，许多地名都和水有关，中央政府的驻地叫中南海，不叫中南沙。永定河原是北京最大的水源，永定河上的官厅水 库是中华人民共和国建 造的第一个水库，总库容22.7亿立方米，可以容纳永定河一年的流量，后又扩大到41.6亿立方米立方米。
中国政府前后在永定河上建了五百多座水库，缚住了苍龙，人战胜了天。可是永定河流入官厅水库的水每年只 有2.5亿立方米了，而且还是被污染了的水，不能作为饮用水源用。北京缺水问题的关键之一在于永定河水源的枯竭和污染。如果永定河恢 复自然生态和流量，治 理流域内的水污染，北京就不缺10亿或者15亿立方米的水了。

北京缺水问题的关键之二在于北京用水的浪费。中共中央和国务院在决定建设南水北调工程时提出两个原则，先节水后调水；先治污后调 水。这是两个不错的理念，但是在调水工程完工时，节水没有做到，治污也没有做到。和文化大革命一样，说假话说大话。

既然北京是世界上最缺水的地方，那么北京应该是世界上最节约用水的地方。可是情况正好相反。北京是世界上用水最浪费的城市。德国人 均每天生活用水量不到130升，而北京是人均每天300升，是德国的2.5倍以上。

北京的用水在于奢侈用水和浪费用水。北京的高尔夫球场用水、私人游泳池用水、水景房、水景景观、人口滑雪场等用水将消耗南水北调入 京水量的一半。

另外三十多年来北京自来水管道渗漏现象一直没有改善，损耗量占百分之二十到三十。如果北京人的生活用水量达到德国的平均水平，每年 可以节省近12亿立方米的水。那样既不需要南水北调，又符合可持续发展的理念。

五、一条不归路

为什么南水北调东线工程完工、中线工程即将完工，中国领导兴奋不起来。

因为这是一条没有前途的不归路，后续还有很多棘手的问题要解决。东线调水渠道与淮河平面相交，治理了三 十年的淮河水质一直没有改善，东线水质难以得到保证，天津干脆不要南水北调的水，宁愿用价廉质好的海水淡化水；汉江流域的水污染远远 超出估计的程度。淮河 流域是中国癌症村最集中的地区，汉江流域也出现了癌症村的分布。通过一江污水向北流可能把癌症村引向北京。

现在不是先治污后调水，而是先调水，留下一大堆难啃的治污任务。汉江被调走这么多水，紧接着就要调水救 汉江。救下游、救襄阳等城镇有引江济汉工程和鄂西调水工程；救汉江上游和陕西的关中地区有引江济谓工程。汉江水源不足，必须着手从长 江干流、从三峡水库调 水，有可能加高三峡大坝，提高三峡水库水位，再次搬迁三峡移民；或者从小江抽水建隧道救汉江。长江中下游要紧急救洞庭湖、救鄱阳湖， 建了拦湖大坝。在长江 上游要从金沙江调水救雅砻江和大渡河，从金沙江调水救滇中等等。

用不了十几年，长江流域将出现全面缺水，入海流量锐减，海水倒灌，上海、南京缺水。那时只有从雅鲁藏布江、怒江和澜沧江等河流大量 调水救长江。而这三条河都是国际河流。

中国工程院院士王浩曾经说过：要像防止战争一样减少跨流域调水。意思就是，战争是解决问题最后的手段，跨流域调水也是解决问题的最 后手段。能不调水就不调，万不得已了才调。

中国政府先决策、后论证，南水北调东、中线工程已经和即将完工，战争早已经打响了。如果中国政府还不改变人定胜天的观念，改变先决 策后论证的做法，在这条不归路上继续走下去，后果就是从国内调水走向国际争水，从调水走向战争。

China Navy - Strength Or Weakness - Getting It From A Military Expert

Images of China’s aircraft carrier and its accompanying warships were released by the PLAN (People’s Liberation Army Navy) to celebrate the battle group’s first successful deployment.

(notice there is NO aircraft on the flattop ?)

Along with Liaoning, 10 more warships took part in the parade (which reminds the American ones): three destroyers, three frigates, three submarines and an amphibious assault ship. A total of eight jet fighters overflew the BG during the return leg of the cruise to Qingdao home port on China’s east coast.

But, as pointed out by defense journalist David Axe on War is Boring, the shots reveal the weaknesses in Chinese naval organization.

The secret to American naval power is the capability to support flattops by means of logistics ships, including tankers, dry stores vessels and ammunition ships.

“The Pentagon’s three-dozen active combat-support vessels, manned mostly by civilian mariners, busily crisscross the globe, carefully plotting their courses to regularly meet up with the carriers and other task forces in order to refuel and resupply them. But no logistics ships are visible in Liaoning’s recent photos. That could be because China possesses only a token naval logistical flotilla—and mostly uses it to support Beijing’s counter-piracy force off of East Africa. “Limited logistical support remains a key obstacle preventing the [Chinese] Navy from operating more extensively beyond East Asia,” the Pentagon reported recently” Axe explains.

Therefore, an image whose aim was to project an image of strength, also highlights the limits of the current Chinese maritime power.

一个中国记者的中日历 史教育采访手记

 
 刘海宁. 英国《金融时报》


“迷失的历史：中国与日本”(Missing Histories: China and Japan) 是BBC World Service即将在2014年2月初推出的一个广播纪录片系列，关注中日两国历史问题的研究、教育以及年轻一代对历史与现实的认知理解。纪录片包括上下 两集，时长各60分钟，分别在中国和日本录制完成。节目由来自中国和日本的两位BBC记者联合采访记录，从东京、横滨到北京、南京、上海，对 话两国的历史学家、政界人物、媒体代表、以及战争的见证者和幸存者。

以下文字为中国记者刘海宁（Haining Liu）对纪录片采访过程的回顾。

2013年11月23日，中国政府正式宣布划设东海防空识别区，包括日本美国在内的区域及国际力量反应强烈。同一天，我们的纪录片团队出发前 往日本和中国，开始为期两周的采访录制旅程。

第一站，日本东京。首日的街头随机采访，在问到对中国时的第一印象时，受访日本民众多次提到岛屿争端和空中识别区，‘野心’是不少普通日本年 轻人用来描述中国的首选词汇。

12月17日，日本安倍内阁公布新的国家安保战略和防卫计划，军费增加到24.97万亿日元，目标包括建立夺回离岛部队等扩充军力的动作，中 国显然成为力量抗衡的假想敌。此时，我身在中国，有关中日历史问题的采访刚刚结束一周。

中日之间当下的种种纠结，已经不是表面上的海岛空域那么单纯。两国政府与民间多年以来的复杂关系，外界看来似乎难以理解，却始终像阴云一般笼 罩在中日两国上空。只不过，近来，阴云升级到了‘雾霾’的程度。政治决策作为两国关系中的一个维度，往往会反映在各自的国内公众情绪上，反过 来，政策制定又受到情绪影响。最近的例子便是2012年中国各地的反日游行，至今，还是很多日本政界学界人士头脑中挥之不去的阴影，他们的政 策建议也很难不受到这类事件的左右。

教科书上的历史异议：日本认为是细节未定，中国认为是性质之差

政治评论员屋山太郎（Taro Yayama）是日本右翼温和派中的代表人物之一，作为“日本教育再生机构”主要成员，他参与编撰了近两年备受争议的右翼历史教科书。采访中，他反复强调 “慰安妇”作为日本军队强迫性奴隶的性质并非属实，“南京大屠杀”应被称为“南京事件”因死亡人数仍然存在很大争议等观点，并不时拿出随身携 带的大量数据和笔记予以支持。即使反复提醒自己记者的身份，我也很难完全不带有任何情绪地去接受他的观点。

屋山说，他不明白为什么时隔多年，没有亲历战争的中国人仍然时常愤怒。“你觉得是为什么？”我通过翻译追问。采访全程一直用日语交流的屋山突 然改用英文。“Crazy（疯狂）”，他回答。看我脸色一变，他又转回日语接着解释说，中国历 史上一直把日本视为弱小的附属，曾被自己的附属超越征服，当然会觉得羞辱，进而愤怒。对于这样的逻辑，我很难理解，却也无 从说服。

采访即将结束前，屋山太郎说起发生在1945年的东京大轰炸。那年他十二岁，亲眼看到自己父亲的左脸被严重烧伤，从此留下不可磨灭的创伤回 忆。我问他有没有想过1937年的中国，在南京，在重庆，有多少与他当年同龄的中国孩子有过类似，甚至更加惨痛的经历。这是一个带有主观情绪 的问题，并不精彩。但话在嘴边，我不得不说。屋山陷入了片刻沉默。接着，他抬眼盯着我许久，挤出一句日文。他说：“对不起。但我的观点没有变 化。”

很难用‘极端’来概括屋山太郎。他的每一个回应都看来有理有据，并有精心研究的数据或文字资料作为支撑。作为记者，我欣赏并尊重这样的采访对 象。但同时，作为中国人，与屋山的对话让我无比纠结。

屋山参与编撰的历史教科书虽然通过了日本文部省的审定，但在日本全国只有不到百分之一的采用率，其中包括横滨市的近10万名初高中学生。横滨 市毗邻首都东京，拥有300多万人口和目前亚洲最大的唐人街。在这里，我们见到了负责通过采用右翼教科书的横滨市教育委员会主席今田忠彦 （Tadahiko Imada）。

2011年8月，正是今田领导的委员会小组决定采用日本育鹏社版历史教科书。书中以“南京事件”和“军事进攻”取代“南京大屠杀”和“侵略” 等字眼，并且没有提及任何有关慰安妇事件的内容。这一政策在日本国内和国际社会都曾引起极大反响，横滨市的许多市民团体也公开游行，强烈反对 今田小组的决定。

显然，71岁的今田忠彦对这些反对之声非常介意。与屋山相同，他拿出大量的数据资料来证明他们对于历史教科书的选择有章可循，而不是如反对者 们所说的那样‘试图美化日本战争历史’。今田说，二战结束以来，日本国内的历史教育当中，关于耻辱和错误的观念灌输过多，以至于多数日本年轻 人无法为自己的国家，或者作为日本人这个事实感到骄傲。“历史记录中的光明和阴影，我们都应当在教科书中包括进去”，今田的语气十分肯定。

而大屠杀、慰安妇、侵略中国，在今田看来，是细节尚待商榷的历史‘阴影’，于是，在横滨版的教科书中，被逐一淡化甚至略去。

与屋山太郎相比，今田忠彦更加固执，对他的采访进行得并不顺利。我在提问中坚持使用‘大屠杀’和‘侵略’的说法，而今田的每一次回答都会特意 对我的用词予以“纠正”。一度，我们的问答似乎成为针锋相对的辩论，我不得不停下来提醒自己，并明确告诉今田：作为记者，我希望提问，而不是 争论。

南京大屠杀——中日民众之间的情感死结

对南京大屠杀等关键事件根本性质的否定，目前在日本国内还只是少数派的声音。但这些声音在一定的国际事件背景下，仍然足以成为横亘在中日民众 之间难以解开的心结。

这样的心结，在南京大屠杀遇难同胞纪念馆中，被成倍放大。

南京城西江东门。纪念馆旧址就建在当年的一个“万人坑”遗址上，累累白骨在纪念馆内仍然清晰可见。进入馆内参观，会首先在昏暗的灯光里走下几 十级台阶，仿佛走进一个巨大的墓穴：黑暗、沉重、压抑。厚重的男声广播在反复讲述着当年那段悲惨的历史。随处可见让人不忍直视的日军屠杀中国 民众的照片，醒目的300,000遇难者人数，还有解说文字中‘恶魔’，‘残害’，‘暴行’等等字眼。我含着眼泪，心跳极快。身边一对参观的 年轻情侣正在略显激动地交谈，‘小日本’、‘该死’这样的词汇不时跳入耳朵。

我看了看在我身后的BBC日本记者大井真理子，显然，她比我更加紧张。这并非真理子第一次拜访大屠杀纪念馆。四年之前她以游客身份独自来到这 里，周围的气氛让她一个字也没有说，不敢说。“我担心，如果在这里被发现是日本人，我会遭到攻击”，她解释说。

我很想告诉她，你多虑了。但身处其中，我的安抚恐怕没有什么说服力。

这次旅程中采访到的许多日本人，包括历史学家和普通民众，都认为多年来在中国的社会及学校中，存在着强大的反日教育倾向。只是从南京大屠杀遇 难同胞纪念馆的陈列方式上得出如此结论，未免太过极端。

在“七七事变”的发生地——北京卢沟桥，我们录制了一场当地小学的升旗仪式及爱国主义教育活动全程。全校五百多个孩子，穿着校服齐刷刷站在操 场上。他们面前是飘扬的五星红旗，和舞台上抑扬顿挫慷慨讲演的小伙伴们。演讲的内容包括卢沟桥的历史、七七事变的过程，和中国少年的国家责任 等。一切安排的都井井有条，孩子们的演讲响亮而‘正确’。确切的说，他们是在背诵，反复排练之后的背诵。自豪之余，我不免有些疑惑甚至失望。 一度，我很想冲上台去，问问正在演讲的小干部：“你自己到底怎么想？”

中国的历史教育：未曾原谅却走向遗忘

如果说少数日本极端右翼势力在试图颠覆一些历史细节，我们对于历史的忠实记录和传承，又到底做 到了几分？

在上海，淞沪抗日战争纪念馆里空空荡荡。这里记录的是1937年8月开始的‘淞沪会战’（也称‘上海战 役’），历时三个多月，约30万中国军人，4万多名日本士兵死于这场持久战，是双方最为惨烈的对抗之一。最终，中方溃败，但日军 士气也大受打击，一定程度上导致了日军进入南京城后几乎失控的大肆杀戮。然而，这里的陈列展示方 式与大屠杀纪念馆完全不同。没有广播，没有影像，没有中英日三种语言的文字解说，也没有触目惊心的照片或实物。纪念馆门口的年轻大学生志愿者 态度积极，却无力进行清晰的导览介绍。

上海的另一角，由慰安妇事件研究者苏志良教授自行创办的“中国慰安妇历史资料馆”藏在某大学一栋高层教学楼昏暗的地下室里。十几年时间里，苏 教授走访了中国各地幸存下来的日军“慰安妇”受害者，她们中大多数不愿再去回忆那段历史，很多视为耻辱而不愿提及。为数不多的采访资料和实物 证据被保存下来，存放在这个不足三十平方米的地下室中。1931年，日军的第一个慰安所就建在今天的上海虹口区东宝兴路125弄，苏志良和他 的同事们最大的梦想就是在原址上建立起中国唯一的慰安妇历史资料馆。他告诉我们，经过反复争取，那座老房子在两年前刚刚逃脱被拆除的命运，虽 然不知道梦想几时实现，至少，证据得以留存。

然而，很多当年战争的见证者已经离去。苏教授采访过的中国“慰安妇”受害者，淞沪会战中的国民党老兵，南京大屠杀的幸存者，等等，他们中的很 多人在近几年纷纷离世，而他们的故事，还没来得及得到最详尽最忠实的记录。这才是真正的遗憾。

在走出“慰安妇历史资料馆”的一刹那，我突然想起了屋山太郎。他坚持认为‘慰安妇事件’从未发生，并搜集大量资料予以佐证。我希望他能来这里 看一看，但并不确定，之后他的观点是否能得到任何转变。

我也不知道这一次的采访经历有没有改变我的日本同事对中国‘反日教育’的恐惧。但就我所看到的，非但不是强大的反日教育，而是我们对自身历史 的模糊认识，单一的认知观点，潦草的证据研究，以及从这种不自信中产生的愈发浓厚的‘被害者’心态。亲眼见证了南京大屠杀的德国人约翰-拉贝说过：“可以宽恕，但不能忘却”。但必须承认，对于那段历史，我 们并没有学会原谅，却正走在忘记的路上。

以史为鉴

当前中日双方空中海上军事力量的对抗之下，正是两国各自对待历史截然不同态度的互相冲击。从1937年到1945年的八年战争，以及之前更长 的历史积怨，对当今中国和日本的影响可能远远超出很多人的预期。对历史问题的定义与反思也反映在两国的历史教育中，影响着战后至今的几代中日 民众。其中的一些精英人物已经成长起来，并走到两国主流社会政界学界的关键地位。至此，双方在基本价值观上的差别甚至对立已经很难通过外交对 话得以弥补。

这就是为何，在战争结束近70年后，两国的关系仍然时常因为未能解决的历史异议而冻结甚至恶化。

在探访历史的间隙，看到时局的变化，我们也会讨论在种种微妙敏感的争论与博弈过程中，中日双方到底有没有擦枪走火的危险？抛开对和平的共同期 待，我们找不到答案。77年前，北京郊区的卢沟桥事变，虽酝酿已久，但双方国内当时都有制衡战争全面爆发的意向和力量。然而，1937年7月 7日那一声枪响，战争的炮火被全面点燃，似乎只在一念之间。

以史为鉴。