The Secret Currency War Series:- Has It Begun ?

It sure begin to look that way. Here are some of the major FX pairs begin to look like they are ready to collapse:-

1) GBP

 

A very nice bearish divergence on the MACD with the Stochastic gone below its 50's level. The rising D- is about to cross up the 20's. One item to watch is its ADX which has been playing around below 20's.  This is indicating there is only a smallish or no trend. But as the MACD fast falling towards its zero signal line, a strong selling trend may emerges when it crosses down below it. Take note that prices already gone below the bottom Bollinger Band which is adding to the bearishness.

There is also a bearish divergence found at the weekly Stochastic.

2) CHF

 

A bullish divergence has been forming for some times. Now with the Stochastic crossing above 50's , MACD turning positive and prices trying to close above the upper Bollinger Band. Next week's price action should either confirm a new bull or a ranging market caught within the band. But I note that this Friday closing is above prior fractal high of 0.9753.

A falling ADX from above the D- and D+ confirm the end of the prior trend.

Since CHF is smaller in value to the USD, a bull move at its chart would mean the currency is depreciating.

3) CAD

 

With the ADX has been hanging around below 20's, this currency has not been directional for the past few months. But we also do have a bullish divergence at the MACD. As at now we have the D+ above the D-, a positive MACD which may be trying to cross zero and a Stochastic already above 50's. I would need to see a closing of above its prior fractal high of 1.0372 to be more confirmed of a new bull.

The bullish divergence found at the weekly chart is really beautiful. But same as the daily chart, the ADX is also "dead'. So I need to see a little more push in order to confirm the return of a massive bull.

4) Ringgit

This one has got a bearish divergence at both its daily and weekly chart. So this is the type of market which if the divergence is to played out accordingly would mean this is the mother of all bull markets (as in CHF - bull mean this currency is depreciating) . The Stochastic has already crossed up above the 50's and MACD seems to be crossing over the zero by the coming week. Price has gone above the upper Bollinger Band and D+ is above  the D-. All are confirming the bull is back.

5) RMB

 

This is a sensitive one where the whole world has been watching it. For every American politicians, regardless whether they are from the left or right, RMB has been the poster perfect whipping boy for almost every American problem. And if you have followed the daily news of US, IMF, EU and Australian making noise on the RMB, the Chinese government would react like the perfect lap poodle and went push down its pricings.But now things have begun to change.

There is a bullish divergence formed at both the Stochastic and MACD. Price has just closed above the lower Bollinger Band which may offer its initial buy signal.The Stochastic is fast crossing up its 20's. A falling ADX of above both the D+ and D- means the prior bear trend may has ended.

All the above FX pairs seem to confirming the beginning of a global currency war.