Has DJIA reached a top ?

I last wrote on the DJIA on March 14th. on the return of the current bull. (http://tunmarvinworld.blogspot.com/2009/03/is-dow-jones-bottoming-out.html) DJIA has since rallied 3,500 + points and now within a striking distance of +-250 points of hitting its 50% retracement target of 10,300. So what could be coming next ?

The daily chart is now blinking some warnings that this bull is getting stale. The Stochastic is above the 80's zone and has begun to cross down. It may soon cross down below the 80's level which may be taken as an initial sell signal. The MACD is especially alarming as it has been registering a series of lower peaks as prices continue to climb. We can even see a clear similar divergence at the falling ADX which is telling us the trend is fading. At this point of time, as long as price can maintain above the lower Bollinger Band or the MACD staying above its zero signal line, this market may still able to go further up. But it is near one of those time that everyone should start getting cautious.

So far the weekly chart is maintaining its bullishness with prices stay above the upper Bollinger Band and the MACD still heading upward.

If DJIA is able to stay above 10,300 level, the next possible upside target would be its 61.8% of 11,250.