President Vladimir Putin has the capacity to destabilize the international order

 

Can Putin Change Russia’s Role From Spoiler to Global Power?

Under President Vladimir Putin, Moscow has repeatedly demonstrated that it has the capacity to destabilize the international order, most recently with its brutal invasion of Ukraine. But for all its ability to upend power dynamics in places like the Middle East and now Europe, Moscow has so far not demonstrated the capacity to fill the vacuums it exploits—or creates. 

Russia occupies an unusual position on the world stage. Under President Vladimir Putin, Moscow has repeatedly demonstrated that it has the capacity to destabilize the international order, most recently with its brutal invasion of Ukraine. But for all its ability to upend power dynamics in places like the Middle East and now Europe, Moscow has so far not demonstrated the capacity to fill the vacuums it exploits—or creates. That is most visibly on display in Ukraine, where the Russian military has proven operationally incompetent at anything but imposing punishing costs on the country’s civilian population, including alleged war crimes.

But while Russia has now proven that it lacks the military strength to challenge U.S. supremacy in Europe, let alone globally, no one—particularly not the NATO alliance—is ignoring its nuclear capabilities, as evidenced by the alliance’s refusal to intervene directly in the war in Ukraine. Moscow also uses arms sales and military engagements to build ties to countries in Asia, Africa, Latin America and especially the Middle East. And until Europe dramatically reduced its dependence on Russian energy supplies, its massive exports of fossil fuels to Europe offered Moscow additional leverage.

Even as Moscow maintains an outsized influence on the global stage, Putin has had some setbacks on the home front. Though he has dominated the Russian political scene for more than two decades, his popularity had waned amid a slowing economy even before the war in Ukraine, particularly following a deeply unpopular pension reform effort in 2018. That didn’t stop him from engineering a way to hold onto power after his current presidential term ends in 2024, despite a constitutional term limit. The recent short-lived rebellion by Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner Group—a private military company that has been a useful asset for the Kremlin in the Middle East, Africa and Ukraine—raised questions about the stability of Putin’s regime and demonstrated how the warring factions within it could lead to chaos once Putin eventually leaves office. But the aftermath of the mutiny, including Prigozhin’s untimely death in an airplane accident, has demonstrated that Putin’s grip on power remains solid.


U.S. President Joe Biden took office eager to demonstrate a tougher line on Russia than that of his predecessor, Donald Trump, announcing sanctions in response to Russia’s cyber behavior in the early months of his administration. But Biden also renewed the New START bilateral nuclear arms control treaty, and his decision to hold a summit with Putin in June 2021 was seen as a further signal of his willingness to work constructively with Russia, particularly on issues like cyber crime. Since then, however, Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine has made it clear that Putin sees no benefits in putting relations on a solid and stable footing. The sanctions the U.S. and the European Union imposed in response have now added to Putin’s domestic challenges.

 Will Russia’s economy survive the war in Ukraine? What impact will the war have on Russia’s strategic partnership with China? And will Putin be able to maintain his grip on power should his military adventurism in Ukraine backfire?