Sunday, February 24, 2013

美联储量 化宽松不是印钞 只是中共的大肆宣传


本文是我根据伯南克在华盛顿大学讲课的第四讲记录整理。中国官方有意误导市场,天天在指责美国印钞,而实际上,我们已经看出近五年来全球货币新增量47%是人民币人民币狂印钞票让全球 震惊,却在指责别人,不知是何用意?为自己开脱吗?现在,我把美联储宽松政策的操作思路告诉大家,看看美联储究竟有没有印钞?

伯南克从来不公开讲大规模资产采购有什么好处,但是,一直在沿用购买资产的手段。伯南克在讲课中,试图详细解释这些大规模资产采购,是宽松货 币政策的替代说法,也是为了给经济提供支持。

那么。资产采购是如何运作的呢?

为影响长期利率,美联储开始在次贷危机后,大规模购入美国国债和房屋抵押相关债券。需要讲清楚的一点是,美联储不断购入的债券,无论是美国国 债、美国各级政府债券都是有政府担保的,在房利美和房地美被置于托管之下后,两房的债券也得到美国政府的担保。而且,一共采取了两轮大规模资 产采购,首次于2009年3月宣布,被称为QE1,第二轮2010年11月宣布的,被称为QE2。除了这些资产采购,还有额外的不同形式的资 产采购,包括延长所持资产期限的项目,但这两次是两个最大的项目,考虑到其规模和对资产负债表的影响,所有这些项目使美联储的资产负债表扩大 了2万亿美元以上。

在危机爆发前,美联储就持有了8000亿美元以上的美国国债,所以,美联储并不是突然购买国债的,实际上只是政策延续,却得到中国市场的疯狂 的炒作,这是很奇妙的。

除此以外,美联储还在和全球主要央行实行货币互换,重新开始并延长了与欧洲央行,和其它主要央行的货币互换协议,以减缓欧洲压力。在危机爆发 时,美联储已经拥有8000亿美元的美国国债,可以看到是为大规模资产采购的,2009年初以来,资产负债表上增加了用于国债购买的2万亿美 元。其它资产,或者是债券或是有形资产,或是其它各种项目,增长都非常快。

美联储为什么要这么做,为什么购买这些债券?这是弗里德曼等经济学家一直在分析的问题。购买资产基本的脉络是,当你买入国债,这会减少市场上 可供交易的债券,投资者想要持有这些债券,他们不得不接受较低的收益率。也就是说,如果供给很有限,他们将愿意以更高的价格买入债券。通过购 买债券,减少可供购买的债券,美联储有效降低了长期国债以及房产抵押债券的利率。如果投资者无法获得国债和房产抵押债券,如果投资者被迫转向 其它种类债券,如公司债券,这也会提高这些债券的价格,降低收益率,所以这些措施的影响将是降低了多种债券的收益率。当然,通常低利率也会刺 激经济发展。

这实际上是不同名称的货币政策,除了关注短期利率,美联储还关注长期利率,但降低利率以刺激经济的基本逻辑是相同的。你可能会问,美联储购入 了2万亿美元的债券,哪来的钱呢?回答是,美联储通过给向出售债券的人提供银行信用来支付,而银行可以将这些信用作为在美联储的储备。美联储 是个各个银行的银行,各银行可以在美联储拥有存款账户,被称为储备账户。所以在购入债券时,美联储是通过提高银行的储备账户金额来支付的。特 别强调的是这一点,美联储并非印钞,而是动用储备金账户。

现在,再来看看流通中的货币和美联储储务票据。市场常常有一种声音,无非是说说美联储为了购买债券而印钱,这是没有的事。伯南克在前面已谈到 过这一问题,举出了一些概念性的例子。但作为实际的事实,美联储为获得这些债券并未印钱。所谓美国印钱只是中共政府的大肆宣传,目的是为中国 大肆印钞找借口。从美联储的资产负债表上我们可以发现,流动中的货币数量并未受到这些活 动的影响,说明美联储并没有印钞。那么,美联储购买资产受到影响的只是储务余额,那是银行、商业银行在美联储 的账户,它们的资产是银行系统的,是美联储的负债,本质上那是美联储用来支付债券购买的。银行系统有大量的储备,但它们在美联储就是一堆电子 数据,它们实际上沉淀在那里。不属于任何广义货币供应量。它们属于货币基础的部分内容,它们当然不是现金。

美联储还有其它负债,其中包括国库帐号和各种美联储的其它所为。美联储只是充当代理,财政部的财政代理。但大家可以看到,两个主要项目,是流 通中的货币和银行持有储备金。那么大规格资产购买或所谓的量化宽松有何作用?美联储预计,当美联储采取这些行动能够压低利率,总体说来这是成 功的。比如,大家可能也知道,30年期抵押贷款利率,已降至4%以下,处于历史低点。不过其它类别贷款的利率也下降,公司信贷下降,公司债利 率下降。二者下降的原因在于基本的安全利率下降,以及公司债利率和国债率相比的利差也下降,反映了金融市场对经济的信心增强,长期利率下降。 在伯南克看来——促进了经济增长和复苏。

尽管如此,对房地产的影响可能不及美联储的预期,美联储把抵押贷款利率降到很低的程度,大家会认为房地产会受到刺激,但大家可能也知道,房地 产市场尚未复苏。当然,美联储始终背负双重任务。始终有两个目标。其一就是实现充分就业,即尽力维持经济增长,充分实现其潜力,低利率是刺激 经济增长和促进就业的一个办法,另外一个任务是维持价格稳定,低通胀。

美联储在维持低通胀方面一直很成功。尤其是在前任主席克洋和格林斯潘的帮助下,伯南克完成了这个任务更加容易,因为他们已经让市场相信,美联 储致力于低通胀。30多年来市场对美联储有着相当大的信心。结果市场对美联储将维持低通胀有信心,通胀预期维持在低水平,除了油价相关的一些 物价涨跌,总体通胀低而且稳定。与些同时,虽然美联储维持低通胀,美联储还保证通胀不会为负,不会转为通缩。尤其是在QE2前后,2010年 12月,人们担心通胀一直下降,远远低于正常水平。担心美国可能实际上进入通缩。熟悉日本情况的朋友都知道,通缩好些年来是日本经济的一个大 问题。

美联储当然希望能避免通缩。在经济大衰退的背景下谈通缩,是一件让市场十分忧虑的事。货币宽松政策能够确保经济不会太疲弱,从而防止通缩风 险。有关大规模资产购买计划也成为市场分析是避免通缩的又一看法,这其实是对货币政策和财政政策的区别不甚了然,因为这两者是非常不同的工 具。财政政策是美国联邦政府的开支和税收工具,货币政策与联邦政府对利率的管理有关,它们是两套很不相同的工具。特别是作为量化宽松的部分内 容,当美联储购买资产时,它并不是一种政府支出,也不表现为政府支出,原因是美国联邦政府实际上并未进行开支。美联储所做的是购买资产,这些 资产在某一时点将卖回给市场。因此资产购买的价值将被赚回来。

事实上由于美联储持有证券上得到利息,美联储实际上通过大规模的资产购买获得了丰厚的利润。过去三年美联储所做的就是将大约2000亿美元的 利润转为国债,直接用于降低赤字。这些行动不会增加赤字,实际上使赤字大大降低,因此,当美联储利用短期利率已不存在空间后,美联储才动用大 规模购买资产这个重大的工具,同时动用的其它工具在某种程度上也是与货币政策的沟通。

从某种程度上说,美联储能清楚表明竭力实现的目标,投资者也可以更好的理解美联储的目标和计划,从而使得货币政策更有效率,美联储已采取许多 步骤提高货币政策的透明性,尽量保证人们理解美联储竭力达成目标。美联储近来在增进政策沟通方面采取的又一步骤是发布一份声明,描述美联储对 于货币政策的基本方法,尤其是首次发布物价稳定的量化定义。全球众多央行对物价稳定都有上量化定义。美联储在声明是表示,所谓物价稳定,就是 通胀为2%。所以市场会清楚,在中期内,美联储的通胀控制目标是2%,即便它同时还力图实现经济增长和促进就业的目标,最后,美联储还开始对 投资者和公众提供指导,说明美联储对未来联邦基金利率的预期,以及美联储当前如何看待经济形势,美联储会告诉市场对利率的预期,就这个意义上 来说,市场将更好的理解美联储的计划,从而有助于削减金融市场的不确定性。如果美联储的计划在某种意义上相比市场预期更激进,它往往会缓和政 策环境,再一次将货币政策用于促进经济的复苏。

当然如伯南克所说,非常严重的经济衰退已正式结束,经济衰退的起止时间由名为“国家经济研究局”的委员会正式判定。按照这个委员会的判定,本 轮衰退始于2007年12月,终于2009年6月,这是一次长期经济衰退,当国家经济研究局宣布衰退结束时,并非意味着形势恢复正常,只是说 明经济萎缩已停止,经济再次增长。近3年来美国的经济一直在增长,年增速度平均为2.5%,不过正如伯南克之前所说,要回到正常状态仍有一段 距离,当美联储说经济不再衰退时,并不是说形势不错。

从伯南克以上对资产购买分析,我们可以看出,美联储并没有印钞,所以,在美元黄金的时代,黄金价格的上涨与美联储的大规模购买资产是没有关系 的。
仅1/3英国人希望留在欧盟



民调显示,只有三分之一的英国人愿投票支持英国留在欧盟(EU)。这一结果表明,戴维•卡梅伦(David Cameron)、埃德•米利班德(Ed Miliband)和尼克•克莱格(Nick Clegg)在“去留欧盟公投”举行之前,将面临一场艰苦的斗争。

民调显示英国公众普遍存在反欧盟情绪,这一结果很可能将引起亲欧盟阵营的警惕。

Harris Interactive受英国《金融时报》委托进行了此次民调。民调假设明天就举行“英国去留欧盟”公投,在此背景下,50%的受访者投给“退出欧 盟”,33%的受访者投给“留在欧盟”,17%的受访者则选择弃权。

曾经反对举行公投的卡梅伦上月终于向压力屈服,承诺如保守党(Tory)继续执政,将在2017年举行公投。

这位保守党领袖表示,如果自己的党派赢得下一次选举,他将在去留公投举行之前寻求从欧盟收回多项权力。

卡梅伦愿促成更多的人投票给“留在欧盟”,但他表示自己“对这项任务的艰巨程度不心存任何侥幸”。这一看法得到了Harris民调结果的 印证。此次民调在1月29日至2月6日之间进行,有2114名成年人参加。


http://i.ftimg.net/picture/1/000033901_piclink_1028_266.jpg
举行公投的承诺深受选民欢迎。有50%的人对这项决定表示支持,仅有21%的 人表示反对。

卡梅伦此举令英国下院的普通议员感到高兴。从一定程度上来说,此举旨在防范东山再起的英国独立党(UK Independence Party)构成的潜在选举威胁。

这将是1975年以来英国首次就去留欧洲问题举行全民公投。1975年时,英国工党(Labour)首相哈罗德•威尔逊(Harold Wilson)曾就英国是否保留欧洲共同体(European Community,欧盟的前身——译者注)成员国身份举行了全民公投。

不过,卡梅伦此举也引起了法国、德国和美国盟友的不安,他们担心公投可能得出令保守党政府意外的结果,即英国退出欧盟。

卡梅伦认为,只要他能就英欧关系重新进行谈判,他就能够说服公众相信留在欧盟的种种好处。

然而,在愿投票给“退出欧盟”的受访者中,只有12%表示若重新谈判成功,他们“肯定”会改变想法;另有47%的受访者表示“可能”会改 变想法;而有41%的受访者则表示肯定不会改变想法。

好萊塢動畫華裔先驅 黃齊耀辉煌傳奇故事

 

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洛杉磯華裔獨立製片人兼導演帕梅拉.湯姆(Pamela Tom,左)將好萊塢傳奇人物黃齊耀鮮為人知的藝術人生搬上了銀幕。(帕梅拉.湯姆提供)

很多人都看過迪士尼經典動畫片《小 鹿斑比》但很少人知道為斑比創造出美麗森林家園的是一個華人藝術家,也就是早 在1930年代就闖蕩好萊塢的華裔影視先驅之一:黃齊耀(Tyrus Wong)。

1910年,黃齊耀在廣東臺山出 生,九歲時和父親遠渡重洋來到美國,從此和留在大陸的母親和姊姊兩地分隔。一個曾被拘留在天使島長達近一年半的小移民,是如何成為好萊塢動畫 史上的傳奇人物的呢?一部由洛杉磯華裔獨立製片人兼導演帕梅拉.湯姆(Pamela Tom)拍攝的新紀錄片《好萊塢的中國水墨:黃齊耀作品》(Chinese Brushstrokes in Hollywood: The Works of Tyrus Wong)將黃齊耀鮮為人知的藝術人生搬上了銀幕。

帕梅拉拍攝黃齊耀的藝術生涯

據帕梅拉介紹,她第一次得知黃齊耀是在和女兒一起看電視播放的《小鹿斑比》(Bambi)動畫片時,片尾播出的拍攝花絮中,好萊塢動畫名師 Marc Davis和Frank Thomas談到一位華人畫家給這部動畫片賦予了整體面貌。帕梅拉因此被吸引,經過查詢找到黃齊耀,並和這位天才的壽星結下不解之緣。

黃齊耀以天賦和勤奮突破了好萊塢的偏見。(帕梅拉.湯姆提供)
在排華法尚未廢除、大多數華人移民以開餐館和洗衣房為生的年代,黃齊耀能走上藝術的道路,除了個人天分外,更要歸功於獨具慧眼的父親與老師。 小時候家貧, 買不起顏料和紙張,他的父親就用毛筆蘸水在舊報紙上教他書畫。15歲在帕薩迪納富蘭克林初中上學時,一位中學老師看到黃齊耀繪畫天賦,推薦他 申請奧堤斯 (Otis)藝術學院的獎學金。拿到獎學金後,父親更是加倍打工供他深造。

黃齊耀細膩又帶有東方色彩的繪畫風格,讓他順利從奧提斯藝術院校畢業,成為30年代該校的第一批亞裔學生代表,也是當時第一位藝術天分受到主 流矚目的亞裔畫家。1936年黃齊耀獲得洛杉磯西部藝術基金會頒發的獎學金。

黃齊耀將國畫之美帶入好萊塢。

1938年,黃齊耀被迪士尼公司動畫部錄用,從底層做起,每週薪水只有16美元。聽聞迪士尼要拍攝《小鹿斑比》,黃齊耀毛遂自薦將自己畫的草 圖給老闆看, 結果因其獨特的風格和色彩受到賞識,從此在業內一舉成名,不久跳槽到華納兄弟電影公司,周薪漲到65美元,並一直做到1968年退休。

中國水墨風折服迪士尼

按照帕梅拉的說法,「西方訓練加上國畫薰陶造就了黃齊耀的獨特風格」,「他把中國審美帶給了迪士尼的觀眾。」

《小鹿斑比》被認為是Disney最成功的形象之一,畫質精緻細膩不輸於現在的新片,斑比和小夥伴生活的森林既寫實又詩情畫意,受到一代又一 代的觀眾所喜愛。

「《小鹿斑比》片中有大量的風景、自然景觀和生命的輪迴,和他的風格十分合拍。」帕梅拉說:「他在適當的時候遇上合適的片子,才得以產生如此 巨大的影響。」

黃齊耀將國畫之美帶入好萊塢。(帕梅拉.湯姆提供)
黃齊耀的創意、勤奮和多產使其能長期立足於好萊塢。在華納兄弟電影公司擔任概念插畫師時,導演們看中了黃齊耀的快手,因此他的工作從未間斷, 《無因的反抗(Rebel Without a Cause)》、《梟巢掃蕩戰(Harper )》、《西部開拓史(How the West Was Won)》等西部片的設計都是出自黃齊耀之手。帕梅拉說:「他能在很短的時間內就為一部影片創造出形象來,然後開始作畫,一周能畫幾十幅,他們都喜歡他的 作品。他是華納兄弟最受歡迎的插畫師。」

除了為電影作畫,黃齊耀還為Hallmark設計過賀卡、還繪製陶瓷,洛杉磯中國城孫中山像廣場著名的龍壁畫也是出自他的手。退休後,黃齊耀 又開闢了製作風箏的藝術生涯。至今,人們還可以在南加州的海灘上看到這位百歲老人放風箏的身影。
 

老年黃齊耀專注於製作風箏。

黃齊耀接受命運的豁達人生觀

而撇開藝術天賦,102歲的黃齊耀本身就是一個傳奇。

在和黃齊耀接觸的過程中,帕梅拉看到的是一位非常謙遜而且幽默的老人。身為華裔、又是女性導演,帕梅拉深知闖蕩好萊塢的艱辛。她說即使是80 多年後的今 天,好萊塢仍然是白人男性主導的世界,而能在其中脫穎而出,黃齊耀要付出他人難以想像的艱辛。「談起在不同製片廠工作時遇到的困難,他從未流 露出怨恨和不 滿之類的情緒。他真能泰然處之。他很相信命運。」對帕梅拉來說,這種豁達的人生觀正是黃齊耀最可敬的品質。

黃齊耀的山水畫作。(帕梅拉.湯姆提供)
2001年黃齊耀獲得華美博物館歷史締造者獎,
2004年華美博物館為他舉辦展覽。2006年黃齊耀獲得動畫領域的最高榮譽之一、第33屆安妮獎 (Annie Awards)評審獎終身成就獎。他還曾在《如何長壽》(How to live forever)紀錄片中現身說法。

帕梅拉.湯姆在蒙特利公園市長大,先上布朗大學,後轉入UCLA學習電影,畢業後為ABC、PBS和KCET撰寫、導演和製作紀錄片。14年前她 和黃齊耀 相識。為了拍攝此片,帕梅拉四處籌資。目前該片已經獲得備受推崇的美國著名電影媒體indieWIRE「12月佳片」提名。有關電影詳情可 見:http://www.tyruswongthemovie.com/。
Brotherly China And North Korea Do Drugs Together

Illicit Meth Trade Between China And North Korea Reveals A Lot About Their Relationship


AS NEW year fireworks crackle and boom amid the neon beside the Yalu river, a small boat inches silently across the stretch of water that forms the border with North Korea. A low block of flats is just visible on the other side, pitch-black save for a single prick of electricity. Clever timing by the smugglers, smiles a watching Chinese resident: "All the police are eating their new year meal."

When North Korea tested a third nuclear weapon on February 12th, it was not security that was troubling the residents of towns along China’s 1,420km (880-mile) border with North Korea. "Trade [with North Korea] is a large part of Dandong’s economy," says Wu Yang, owner of an ornament company that uses semi-precious stones from the North. "I’m worried it will be affected," she says.

Fuel, rice, wheat and basic consumer goods all flow legally, usually by lorry over bridges on the Yalu, into North Korea. Imports from the North include minerals, coal, scrap metal and seafood. There is also a thriving black-market trade both ways, usually by boat. This feeds the growing demand for other non-staple products among the new North Korean nouveaux riches. Border police, especially in the North, are known to take bribes to allow illicit trade to pass. One illegal North Korean export causing social problems is crystal meth, a drug known in China as bingdu, or "ice".

If China’s government clamps down on official trade with the North to express its displeasure at the nuclear test, the result will only be more smuggling, says a local who has invested in North Korean minerals. Illicit trade brings its own problems. North Korean border guards shot dead three Chinese smugglers in 2010, and tensions remain.

Meanwhile, as goods flow into North Korea, people continue to flow out. Some come legally to work in North Korean restaurants in Dandong and will return home. Outwardly they are unswervingly loyal--"China is all right, but North Korea is better," says one--but local Chinese say they are more confident and chatty than before. Many more flee illegally across the river and live in secret in China or try to make it to South Korea, often through a third country. Tesco, a British supermarket chain, has a store in Dandong with a special section offering "Korean food"--mainly imported from South Korea--that an employee says specifically caters to North Koreans.

Wealthy tourists from elsewhere in China pay for boat rides on the river or can even book a trip into North Korea itself, perhaps to remind themselves how far China has come. Others buy cigarettes and trinkets labelled as North Korean but, according to locals, actually made in China. There is sympathy for North Koreans, but no-one wants to miss a good business opportunity.

The Consequences of Currency Devaluation

Article Summary: This article will take an in-depth look into the primary consequence of Currency devaluation policies: Inflation. Moderate inflation is generally considered to be a good thing, but too much inflation can be difficult to contain and become a catastrophic force to an economy.
I still remember the first day of Microeconomics 101, being flummoxed by the prospect of inflation being a ‘good’ thing. After all, if prices are increasing – that means you can buy less stuff with the same amount of money, right? This surely sounded like a destructive force to me.
It was only after that first class, in speaking with the professor that I learned about the important relationship between interest rates and inflation. The professor explained: “Inflation is like a byproduct of growth… as salaries increase and costs go up, companies have to charge higher prices for their goods. The higher prices on those goods could potentially scare customers away, so too much inflation can be a bad thing. When inflation looks to be getting too high, The Federal Reserve can increase interest rates to bring inflation back down.”
My professor continued, “inflation could be a good thing in moderation, as it is a sign and byproduct of growth in an economy.”
consequencesofcurrencydevalue_body_Picture_4.png, The
            Consequences of Currency Devaluation This stuck with me, the fact that we have a ‘sweet spot’ for inflation, and that too much or too little can wreak havoc on financial markets.
But to see what a destructive force inflation can be, it might help to look at an example of an economy that was absolutely ravaged by rising prices in the face of currency devaluation.
A Case Study of Inflation
The nation of Zimbabwe is a small country located in the southern portion of the African continent. The nation was under British Colonial rule until 1965, when a fight for independence began, and this came to fruition in 1979 with elections to be held the following year. In those elections, Robert Mugabe won in a landslide, and has taken on a primary role as a ‘leader’ of the country ever since.
Since then, the country has faced indomitable hardship. A ‘land reform’ program was initiated shortly after those elections, in which land was ‘redistributed.’ Given that the country was under British rule for nearly 70 years, there was a lot of land taken from farmers and given to Mugabe supporters in the ‘redistribution.’
Despite all of this – the economy grew, on average, more than 4% per year between 1980-1990. The next decade saw more growth, but this all changed in the year 2000.
Unhappy with the results of his ‘land reform’ program not redistributing arable farm land fast enough, which up to that point had been defined by a ‘willing-buyer, willing-seller’ rule, Robert Mugabe began to forcibly redistribute property in the year 2000. This is often called a ‘fast-track land reform’ program.
This was a major turning point for their economy. Agriculture was a major export of Zimbabwe, and many of the farms that were previously producing and exporting crops outside of the country were now in the hands of someone else; in many cases, those farms were in the hands of government officials that didn't know how to farm. Inflation in the year 2000 in Zimbabwe was over 55%, but only one year later in 2001 inflation had reached over 112%. As reference, this is a picture of a note denominated in Zimbabwe dollars at the time:
consequencesofcurrencydevalue_body_Picture_3.png, The
            Consequences of Currency Devaluation As land was continuing to be redistributed, capital was flying out of the country. Investors were losing confidence in being invested in Zimbabwe, and didn’t want to take on the risk of having their capital tied to a Mugabe-led regime. Inflation in 2003 was 598%.
As capital flew out of the country, the Zimbabwe dollar started to crumble. Sanctions were later placed on the nation by The United States, and this made the future of Zimbabwe even more opaque.
With many essential goods being imported into Zimbabwe, and with their currency weakening – these products became even more expensive and it became even more challenging to purchase basic life necessities like food and shelter.
In 2006, Dr. Gideon Gono, then the head of The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe, embarked on a currency ‘re-evaluation,’ in which a new currency would be printed. The ‘new’ dollars were to be worth approximately 1000 ‘old’ dollars. Inflation in 2006 was 1,281%
This did little to restore confidence to investors, or consumers, and this only seemed to spark more selling out of Zimbabwe dollars. This led to another ‘redenomination,’ which led to yet another ‘redenomination.’ After the second redenomination, the 50-dollar note we looked at earlier became the same as this 500,000,000 note below:
consequencesofcurrencydevalue_body_Picture_2.png, The
            Consequences of Currency Devaluation All told, there were four different variations of Zimbabwe Dollars in use over a 3-year period.
Inflation in 2007 was 66,212%, and in 2008 reached unmanageable levels before use of Zimbabwean currency was suspended. In one of the latter prints, this note gained international attention (and is still a collector’s item today):
consequencesofcurrencydevalue_body_Picture_1.png, The
            Consequences of Currency Devaluation Each redenomination was another blow to investor confidence in Zimbabwe, and only saw more capital leave the country.
By the third ‘redenomination,’ the economy of Zimbabwe had already become ‘dollarized,’ that is – using the US Dollar as the primary currency. This was the beginning of the downward spiral that engulfed Zimbabwe, and saw the eventual abandonment of their currency.
Once inflation became uncontrollable, it took on a life of its own and few actions could slow its impact to the Zimbabwean economy.
This is precisely what the Federal Reserve fears, and the reason that the Bank of Japan did not embark on a more aggressive policy of easing earlier in their economic recession.
Inflation can be a good thing, but only in moderation – and artificially weakening a currency in an effort to propel inflation which may, in-turn, promote growth runs the very real risk of eroding investor confidence.

中国汉族工人打砸毁壮族苗族村

 
Same thing happens to Tibet and Xinchiang minorities all the time. China government has been displaying the traditional heavenly empire mentality both to its own people and to the external world:-

云南隧道 工人闹事 逾百人打砸毁村

中国网上21日曝“云南省富宁县 剥隘镇岩村村民遭到逾百名中铁隧道集团员工打砸抢烧”云南省富宁县委宣传部21日证实事件,事件造成3名中铁工人受 伤,云南省文山壮族苗族自治州富宁县剥隘镇岩村57户房屋和财产受到损毁

据富宁县委宣传部称,12日下午4时许,中铁隧道集团云桂铁路富宁项目部四分部剥隘平郎隧道口施工队2名工人驾车途经富宁县剥隘镇岩村路 段时,与该村8名村民发生纠纷打架致一名工人受伤,剥隘派出所接警后,立即赶赴现场处置。


赔偿15万予村民

直到13日上午9时许,相互邀约百余名工人到岩村,双方对峙打斗,又造成铁路方两名工人受伤,致使事态升级,从而成岩村57户房屋和财产受到损毁。

网民还指责中铁隧道打扰村民生活。

据了解,云桂铁路起于昆明南新客站向东经红河、文山、 富宁、百色抵达广西南宁,全线长710公里,为国铁一级电气化双线铁路。

该铁路于2009年12月27日在广西百色开工建设,工期6年。

壮族村民无力抵抗 老弱逃往深山过夜

据悉,过百名中铁隧道集团员工,头戴安全帽、手持铁棍,闯入云南省文山壮族苗族自治州富宁县剥隘镇岩村进行扫荡式打砸。 村民无力对抗带着老人小孩逃往深山躲了一夜等到第二天才敢返回。


之后,村民曾向公安局求助,但公安局不予理会,更将几个村民抓去严 刑逼供,指事件是由于村民找麻烦,才惹起这场风波。岩村有农户70户,人口约300人,绝大 部分是壮族。
希望小学 - 大马中文报社, 您可以停止吻中共的屁股啦 !
 
香港捐建 启用仅4年 贵州希望小学沦垃圾场



(北京22日讯)全球华人积极在中国捐助兴建的希望小学,如今竟然有学校被荒置,沦为“垃圾小学”!

贵州省凯里市一所由香港灵泉慈善基金会捐款兴建的希望小学,建成4年后沦为垃圾回收站,当地教育局称,这所学校在2010年因学生人数少及修 建高速公路等原因而改变用途。

学 生少建高速公路

灵泉基金会一名梁姓人员昨晚向香港《明报》表示,在学校改变用途时曾获知会。

“希望工程”是中国青基会发起倡导并组织实施的一项社会公益事业,其宗旨是资助贫困地区失学儿童重返校园,建设希望小学,改善农村办学条件。

希望工程自1989年10月实 施以来,累计接受海内外捐款达数十亿元。

近日有中国记者在凯里龙场镇老山村发现,香港灵泉老山希望小学的操场上堆放着一袋袋垃圾,有汽车配件、电脑外壳、饮料瓶、药瓶等。

《新京报》星期二报道,学校碑文显示,学校由香港灵泉慈善基金会捐款20万人民币(约10万令吉)、凯里市政府匹配15万人民币(约7.5万 令吉)援建,于2008年11月建成投入使用。

据村民透露,2008年,学校刚使用不久就突然关门,变成养鸡场,后来又变成垃圾回收站。

KCPO - Market Goes Sideway -2/25/2013


 
The last trade was relatively short lived and ended with small losses as price went back above th top band which effectively hit my stop. Everytime when this kind of trade situation happens, I would want to know where the ADX is. The ADX has gone flat since last Monday . With that I know the market has trned listless so I would be careful with the next trade signal. A new buy signal flashed on last Wednesday when the Stochastic turned positve with price above the top band, but it failed to pass my filter of buy the next day when if price goes above the signal day high. But instead price went below the top band again on the next day, but again it did not complete as a sell signal because the Stochastic stays positive.

The Stochastic is positive but the MACD stays negative on top of a flat ADX at 20's. All added up to a classic confirmation of a "dead" market. 



 
The weekly chart's Stochastic and MACD are still rising. As I have mentioned in my earlier essays here, even though the  MACD has performed a so called "golden cross", it does not necessarily mean that market will move up. I would need to see where the crossing occur, if it happens "far " from its zero signal line (as in the case here) , the so called "golden cross" is usually bring little joys to the bulls. This is where many market analysts make a wrong interpretion on the golden or death crosses. though price is below the top band but the indicators are not lending a confirmation, so there is no new sell signal.

Price is testing the top band again but failed to close above it by a small margin. So I would watch the coming week's price action closely to see whether it can close back aboe the top  band of 2535. If they can, then it will be another new buy signal. The other item remains the same as last week:- ADX is still falling above DMI which still means the prior sell cycle has ended. But the Bollinger Band has stopped contracting, so the sideway mode may be ending.
FKLI - Technical Rebound In Progress -2/25/2013


 

 The earlier buy signal was not fullfilled because the high kept go lower. But a brand new buy signal finally flashed again on last Friday when price closed above the bottom band with the Stochastic turning positive again (it turned negative on last Thursday). So I would buy again on the coming week if price goes above 1619 in the coming week.

The MACD is making another attempt to turn around but it is still negative now. The DMI remains negative but the ADX stays flat above the DMI for the past few trading sessions and that is a kind of good news for the bulls because it may mean the prior bear cycle may has recessed, at least for the time being. If ADX begins to fall, it will lend more weight to the bears have ended story.

There is a minor bullish divergence at the Stochastic with higher troughs while prices went to test the 1,600's level for a few times. This means it has formed a multi bottoms which is usually very bullish. As the MACD is relatively "far" from its zero signal line, so I would not get too carried away with this bullish formation. I would consider this as a technical rebound in an overall bear cycle.

 

 The weekly chart's Stochastic and MACD continue to fall and DMI stays negative. But price is still holding sideway and it managed to closed back above the bottom band again. Though the ADX has been rising but it is still below the 20's, thus we fail to see the new trend coming into being. Perhaps the most "bullish " item in this chart is the Japanese Candlestick which is long bottom shadow Doji. When this happens at an important bottom level (such as the current 1600's), it usually mean that a reversal may be coming. I usually do not take Candlestick too seriously at the daly chart, but I would pay attention to their significance at the weekly chart because I often find them to be more predictive. Overall the weekly chart is still more bearish biased, and I would watch closely the 1,600's level which has been providing a solid support. If that level fails , it would mean end of the world type of selloff. I am more inclined to take side with the bears because the formation of a triple bearish divergences already formed at the MACD.

The daily chart has flashed a new buy signal with a bullish multi bottoms formation and the weekly chart Japanese Candlestick hinting a possible reversal, so I would trade it as it should be highly profitable. But the overall big picture as in the weekly chart still remain bearish as ever, so the current trading mind set is NOT to be carried away by the daily chart's small bull.

Friday, February 22, 2013

 Skyscrapers Have Always Predicted Recession Through History

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                khalifa

Investors look at everything from macro indicators like inflation, unemployment and GDP growth, to more bizarre ones like the diaper rash indicator and the hemline index to measure the health of the economy.  
 
Now, Barclays is out with its Skyscraper Index, which shows a correlation between construction of the next world's tallest building and an impending financial crisis. In fact the report even suggests that the rate of increase in height could also reflect the extent of that economic crisis. 

Drawing on Barclays' report we put together a timeline of the construction of skyscrapers and the financial crises that coincided with them.

The Long Depression, 1873 - 1878

The Long Depression, 1873 - 1878
Equitable Life Building


The pervasive U.S. economic recession with bank failures that came to be known as the Long Depression coincided with the construction of the Equitable Life Building in 1873. At the time the building was the first skyscraper at a height of 142 feet.

British banking crisis, 1890, and a world recession

British banking crisis, 1890, and a
                                world recession
New York World building aka Pulitzer Building


Chicago's 269-foot tall Auditorium building completed in 1889, and the 309-foot tall New York World building completed in 1890, coincided with the British banking crisis of 1890, and a world recession.

U.S. panic marked by the collapse of railroad overbuilding, 1893

U.S. panic marked by the collapse
                                of railroad overbuilding, 1893
Milwaukee City Hall


Chicago's 302-foot tall Masonic Temple, and the 348-feet tall Manhattan Life Building, and the 353-foot tall Milwaukee City Hall coincided with the US panic of 1893 marked by the collapse of railroad overbuilding. It also coincided with a string of bank failures and a run on gold.

First stock market crash on the NYSE, 1901

First stock market crash on the
                                NYSE, 1901
Philadelphia City Hall


The construction of the 391 feet tall Park Row Building presaged the US stock market crash and panic of 1901, as did the completion of Philadelphia City Hall, which stood at a height of 511 feet.

The Bankers' Panic and U.S. economic crisis, 1907 - 1910

The Bankers' Panic and U.S.
                                economic crisis, 1907 - 1910
Singer building, New York


The construction of New York's 612-foot tall Singer building, and the 700-foot tall Metropolitan life building corresponded with the panic of 1907. The Bankers' Panic was a financial crisis that occurred after the NYSE fell nearly 50% from its peak, and reflected a monetary expansion brought about by the establishment of trust companies.

The Great depression, 1929 - 1933

The Great depression, 1929 - 1933


The construction of three record breaking buildings coincided with the onset of the Great Depression. 40 Wall Street which on completion in 1929 reached 927 feet, followed by the 1,046 foot tall Chrysler building in 1930, and the Empire State building in 1931, which towered over the others at 1,250 feet.

U.S. and worldwide economic crisis, 1973 - 1975

U.S. and worldwide economic crisis,
                                1973 - 1975


The 1972 construction of One World Trade Center, the 1973 completion of Two World Trade Center, and the 1974 construction of the Sears Tower in Chicago, coincided with a period of speculation in monetary expansion from foreign lending.
It also coincided with the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, a rise in oil prices that caused a global economic crisis, and speculation in stocks, property, ships and aircrafts.

Asian economic crisis, 1997 - 1998

Asian economic crisis, 1997 - 1998


The Asian economic crisis, currency devaluation and speculation in stock and property coincided with the completion of the Petronas Towers in 1997. At 1,483 feet, the Petronas Towers were the tallest buildings in the world and heralded a crisis in that region.

Dot-com bubble, 2000 - 2003

Dot-com bubble, 2000 - 2003


The construction of the 1,671 foot tall Taipei 101 began in 1999 and was completed in 2004. The duration coincided without the recession in the early 2000s and the tech bubble.

The Great Recession, 2007 - 2010

The Great Recession, 2007 - 2010

The 2010 completion of the tallest building in the world, the Burj Khalifa, which towers at 2,717 feet coincided with the current global financial crisis. The building surpassed Taipei 101's height on July 21, 2007.
Source: Barclays

China, ???

China, ???

Of all of the world's skyscrapers under construction, China is home to 53% of them.

India, ???

India, ???


India just finished building two skyscrapers and has 14 skyscrapers currently under construction.

Spy VS Spy : Why Iran Is Losing Its Covert War with Israel


Slumped in a Nairobi courtroom, suit coats rumpled and reading glasses dangling from librarian chains, the defendants made a poor showing for the notorious Quds Force of the elite Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. Ahmad Abolafathi Mohammed and Sayed Mansour Mousa had been caught red-handed and middle-aged. And if the latter did them a certain credit — blandly forgettable always having been a good look for a secret agent — the prisoners still had to explain why they had hidden 15 kg of the military explosive RDX under bushes on a Mombasa golf course.
Created to advance Iran’s interests clandestinely overseas, the Quds Force has lately provided mostly embarrassment, stumbling in Azerbaijan, Georgia, India, Kenya and most spectacularly in Thailand, where before accidentally blowing up their Bangkok safe house, Iran’s secret agents were photographed in the sex-tourism mecca of Pattaya, one arm around a hookah, the other around a hooker. In its ongoing shadow war with Israel, the Iranian side’s lone “success” was the July 18 bombing of a Bulgarian bus carrying Israeli tourists — though European investigators last week officially attributed that attack to Iran’s Lebanese proxy, Hizballah. That leaves the Islamic Republic itself with a failure rate hovering near 100% abroad and an operational tempo — nine overseas plots uncovered in nine months — that carries a whiff of desperation. A Tehran government long branded by U.S. officials as the globe’s leading exporter of terrorism may be cornering the market on haplessness.

Within Iran’s own borders, however, the story is different. Twice in the past two years Iranian intelligence has cracked espionage rings working with Israel’s Mossad, Western intelligence officials tell TIME. In both cases, the arrests were the furthest thing from secret: announced at a news conference, each was later followed up by televised confessions broadcast on Iranian state television in prime time. Given Iran’s history of trumped-up confessions, skepticism is more than justified. But the arrests appear to be solid. One intelligence official said the captured Iranians provided “support and logistics” to the Mossad operatives who carried out the assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists.

At least four scientists were killed on Tehran’s streets from 2010 to 2012, when, as TIME has reported, Israel ratcheted back on covert operations inside Iran. Officially, Israel has remained silent on the killings, though government officials will coyly say they welcome the deaths. The Jewish state maintains the same ambiguous posture on other “setbacks” to Iran’s nuclear program widely — and correctly, Western intelligence officials say — attributed to Mossad, from the Stuxnet computer virus, to mysterious explosions like the massive blast at a missile base, which destroyed ballistic missiles that could reach Israel.

The covert onslaught dovetails with Israel’s history of reaching “over the horizon” to disarm perceived threats at a distance. To keep advanced arms from reaching Hamas and Hizballah, Israel in the past year sent warplanes to bomb convoys and arms depots in Sudan and Syria, respectively, without apparent retribution. In the case of Iran, however, experts say the audacity of Israel’s covert campaign stirred Tehran to revive an espionage effort that lay largely fallow since 9/11. The Spy vs. Spy contest that ensued would prove woefully one-sided, even in the third-world countries where Iran chose to strike, hoping to avoid heightened security awareness in the developed world. In the end, its only success came inside Iran, where the secret police operate without inhibition.

The shadow war may have started on Jan. 15, 2007, the day Ardeshir Hosseinpour passed away. Hosseinpour was a specialist in electromagnetics at the Nuclear Technology Center in the city of Isfahan, Iran, but his death might have escaped notice had Iran’s government not kept it under wraps for almost a week, finally attributing it to fumes from a faulty heater. An online report by the American private intelligence firm Stratfor suggested another cause — radioactive poisoning — and hinted that Mossad’s Caesarea section was back in business. Caesarea, named for an Israeli beach town that dates back to Roman times, is the operations branch of Israel’s secret service, most notoriously responsible for the assassinations of some two dozen Palestinians (and an innocent waiter) after the 1972 Munich Olympics. Assassinations are carried out by a very small unit dubbed Kidon, the Hebrew word for “tip of the spear.” Kidon operates at a remove from the legions of Mossad employees working in less lethal fields.

It would have been a unit called Hatzomet, or “The Junction,” that recruited Majid Fashi, a handsome young Iranian who dropped out of high school to pursue a career in kickboxing. By the account he gave on Iranian state television early in 2011, Fashi presented himself at the Israeli consulate in Istanbul in 2007 and was vetted for a solid year before being shown any trust. Two years later, on Jan. 12, 2010, he would place a bomb on a motorbike parked on the sidewalk outside the Tehran home of Masoud Alimohammadi; the nuclear physicist was killed when it was detonated by remote control.

In the broadcast, Fashi accurately described the Mossad campus north of Tel Aviv. He said he had been given a laptop equipped with a second operating system and used it to communicate through online drop boxes. He was impressed by his handlers’ thoroughness. At one point Fashi described studying a scale model of Alimohammadi’s street. “It was an exact copy of the real one,” Fashi said. “The tree next it, the street curb, the bridge.” In a later broadcast, he was seated across from Alimohammadi’s widow, who glared at him as he bowed his head and wept. Mossad officials were “pissed off and shocked” seeing their agent on television, the intelligence official said.

Fashi was executed in May 2012. About the same time, Iran’s intelligence minister announced the arrest of 14 more Iranians, eight men and six women dubbed members of the “Terror Club” in the subsequent prime-time broadcast of that name. Filmed in shadow, and rich in atmospherics, the Aug. 5 program recreated Alimohammadi’s death and four subsequent attacks: they started with the Nov. 29, 2010 nearly simultaneous attempts on Majid Shariari and Fereydoun Abbasi, nuclear scientists driving to work when magnetic “sticky bombs” were attached to the side of their cars from passing motorcycles. Abbasi managed to escape before it detonated, saving his wife as well. Shariari was killed — a significant setback for the Iranian nuclear program where he was the top scientist, according to a Western intelligence official.

The confessed agents offered absorbing detail — they were aboard a Bajaj Pulsar, wearing helmets, when the magnet bomb stuck on the right front panel of Shariari’s car exploded. The riders scrambled into the “trail car” assigned to follow the target and disappeared into the traffic of the Imam Ali Autobahn. Already gone was the car assigned to cut off and slow the car carrying the scientist. They claimed to have rehearsed on a practice track inside Israel. None of the details could be confirmed, but an intelligence official acknowledged: “Another network was taken.”

The third scientist, Dariush Rezaeinejad was shot on July 23, 2011 after picking up his child at a day care; his wife described hearing shots whiz by as she chased the assailants. The most recent assassination was the Jan. 11, 2012 death of Mustafa Ahmadi-Roshan, an expert on uranium enrichment, also by a magnet bomb slapped on his car during his morning commute.

By then, Iran was trying to strike back. The task of avenging the scientists fell to the sprawling Quds Force’s own covert-operations division, known as Unit 400. It took a shotgun approach, targeting Israeli diplomatic missions in a variety of countries, mostly in the developing world where the global antiterrorism mesh is not so fine. Exposed in Baku, Tbilisi, Johannesburg, Mombasa and Bangkok, the failures mounted at a pace that was itself one of the problems. In the world of espionage, a quality covert operation can take years to pull together. Yet in the 15 months from May 2011 to July 2012, the Quds Force and Hizballah attempted 20 attacks, by the count of Matthew Levitt, a former State Department counterterrorism official. “Hizballah and the Quds Force traded speed for tradecraft and reaped what they sowed,” Levitt writes in a January report for the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “Quds Force planners were stretched thin by the rapid tempo of their new attack plan, and were forced to throw together random teams of operatives who had not trained together.”

The decline in quality was so striking it initially inspired disbelief. Recall the preposterous-sounding plot weaving together a former used-car salesman, Mexico’s Zetas drug gang and a bank transfer from a Revolutionary Guard account to assassinate Saudi Arabia’s ambassador — by bombing a Washington restaurant? A year on it looks like the new normal. In Bangkok last month, an Iranian agent entered a courtroom in a wheelchair, having accidentally blown his legs off while fleeing police. A January alert issued by Turkish intelligence was light on specifics but quite certain the Quds operatives would be staying in five-star hotels.

“There’s a number of reasons that Iranian intelligence has suffered,” says Meir Javedanfar, an Iranian-born analyst who lectures at the Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya, Israel. “No. 1,” he says, “is the 2009 uprisings in Iran.” The street protests over a fraudulent election undermined the perceived legitimacy of the state among people who once would work for it, including in its secret services. “People less and less see it as a nationalist endeavor and more as a Khamenei-related project to strengthen himself,” Javedanfar says, referring to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatullah Ali Khamenei, who by some published accounts personally authorizes all overseas attacks.

Hard-liners further aggravated the situation by purging competent reformists from both the secret services and from Iran’s embassies — crucial to a force expected to work undetected abroad. “Basically the Quds Force doesn’t cooperate with the Foreign Ministry, and the Foreign Ministry isn’t what it used to be either,” says Javedanfar. Under President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, 42% of ministry employees have only high school degrees. “The regime is a bigger threat to itself than Israel,” he says.

Somewhere in Hong Kong - "You're not even a fucking Chinese!"

 

民建聯愛國大狀胡言 同胞皆為Fucking Chinese?

愛國愛港陣營中,總有一些自以為越左越激進、大罵長毛、泛民,
就代表越愛國、越忠心,實質、出醜人前而不自知、既影衰愛國愛港的招牌,更為偉大祖 國倒米,稍有文化知識者,無不看不起這些人。
昨天,立法會政制事務委員會會議、山西省政協、民建聯司法及法律事務發言人馬 恩國大律師,在發言時與長毛罵戰,

其左一句「我唔係香港區政協!係 山西省政協!但我係澳洲大律師喎!我喺澳洲廿年喎!」
右一句「咩唔敢認!我就係山西政協!我就係民建聯但我而家係一個大律師!點吖?唔 係教訓香港人,係教訓你啫!」

其盛氣凌人、不可一世,令人側目之餘,其人以英語高呼愛國, 更令人莫名其妙!他自稱愛偉大祖國、卻以英語大呼愛國,何以,不用普通話?這,又豈不羞辱偉大祖國語言?但更令人大惑不解的是,其人不斷說 「bloody Chinese」、「fucking Chinese」:
「我愛港愛國!我愛港愛國!我係 Chinese!I am a Chinese which you are not! You are not bloody Chinese!」

「"Tell me that you are Chinese! You're not even a fucking Chinese!" 」

雖知、bloody、fucking這些字眼、那是粗俗俚語,
在偉大祖國特區議事堂內不斷bloody Chinese、fucking Chinese這樣叫,恐有辱斯文、染污莊嚴議事堂,亦有辱大律師身份,而fucking更帶點侮辱成份,用bloody、fucking形容中國人,
若是一個美帝洋鬼子對著偉大祖國同胞說,他是 bloody Chinese、fucking Chinese,恐怕必被指辱華!

馬恩國大律師用胡語讚偉大祖國,結果出醜人前,
用胡語大鬧中國人,真的應了「漢人學得胡兒 語,站在城頭罵漢人」

凤凰网 :- “朝鲜民众不厌美韩反感中国人”

 

 凤凰网2月19日以《英国前驻朝大使称朝鲜民众不厌美韩反 感中国》为标题,报导凤凰卫视节目中关于朝鲜的内容。该观点引起不少国人诧异,成为了今日微博的讨论话题。一 些微博公知认为,朝鲜民众的反应并不奇怪。
“朝鲜民众不厌美韩反感中国人”

凤凰网报导凤凰卫视2月18日《凤凰焦点关注》
播出的节目内容中提到,《纽约时报》发现,在这次朝鲜核试验之后,微博上大量的网友对于朝鲜的行为感到不满,认为朝鲜不顾中国人民情感,在新年期间进行核试验,不仅给国 人情绪上带来恐慌,而且对身体健康也带来隐忧。
节目并提到,英国前驻朝鲜大使艾维拉德日前表示,中国没有停止对朝援助,让国际社会的制裁效果 大打折扣。最后特别提到,艾维拉德在去年夏天给全中国人民带来了一个让人心寒的消息,他说,“别看朝鲜经济基本依赖中国,但据他观察,朝 鲜民间真正讨厌美国韩国的人不多,大家最厌恶的反而正是中国人。

该观点引起不少国人诧异,一些微博公知对此现象进行了解读,
表示朝鲜民众的反应并不奇怪。
朝鲜要“去中国化”中国人为政府行为背黑锅

作家肖雪慧说,“朝鲜人的反应不奇怪。
如果他们知道朝鲜人民的苦难跟60年前中国军队入朝与联合国军作战有直接关系仇恨会更深。”她感叹如今 中国人以及跟那场战争无关的后几代人,都在为政府的行为受罪。
知名博主、天使投资人薛蛮子指出:
当年抗美援越的地雷都埋在中越边界,援助的枪支弹药大都用来打中国人。北韩六十年代反华把志愿军墓碑都砸了。为了骗援助又偷偷修 复只对中国旅客开放。板面店停战的陈列室早己没了中国志愿军的影子。朝鲜教科书电 影电视中死伤几十万人的志愿军都被选择性遗忘了!

“前段时间我写文章说朝鲜人最恨的是中国,看来是没错的!”
时事評論作家五岳散人早前即撰写文章对该现象进行分析。他认为,中国几十万志愿军血洒疆场保住了金氏政权,但这正也是金氏父子最不愿让自己国民知道的,因为为了要保持 金家父子在民众中的伟人神话形象,以维持统治,所以不能让朝鲜民众知道被他们称为“天降伟人”的金氏父子是被中国扶植的,所 以就要去中国化。
此外,朝鲜也相当警惕中国借着援助而对朝鲜内政产生影响。“
日本、韩国、美帝其实都影响不到朝鲜的内部政局,只有中国能够做到这一点。那些国 家只是为国民树立一个敌人的靶子,从而在幻想中的外部威胁下巩固其统治,朝鲜真正警惕的是中国。”
五岳散人表示,六十年代中苏交恶,朝鲜倒向苏联之后就把志愿军的墓碑等等的东西都砸了,现在国 人到朝鲜拜谒的志愿军墓园是八九十年代新建的,只是用来专门给中国人参观。

中国人要感谢朝鲜?

文化学者吴祚来则从另一个角度思维称:朝鲜发动韩战,
造成中国志愿军牺牲三十多万,但它的牺牲是值得的,它结束了文革!而朝鲜现在的核弹,极 可能结束一D(党)专制,朝鲜为中国人民下的很大一盘棋,几个人能透过历史烟尘看得清晰?中国人民支持朝鲜人民吃的用的,一切都是值得的,想 想看,如果毛二当政,有多可怕?
有网民表示,对于朝鲜人最厌恶中国人的说法起初有些诧异,
但想想也对,“支持这样一个政权,不招人恨才怪。”
关注人权的律师唐吉田向《看中国》记者表示,
这整个情况实际上就是“中共和金家王朝狼狈为奸,慷国人之慨助恶。”一般国人对官方以外的信息了 解较少,所以听闻朝鲜民间有这样的反应可能会感到惊讶,但随着媒体的发展、信息的流通,政府的谎言是难以持久的,最后会让两国人民共同唾弃!

香港人憎恨大陆中国人


香港新年街头的“反党”标语

新年期间,有网友拍下香港街头的反党标语。
香港街头的反党标语
香港街头的反党标语
香港街头的反党标语
香港街头的反党标语


2013/02/18/20130218120954507.jpg

 

"How Stupid Do You Think We Are?"

 Incredible Letter from CEO of Titan to France Minister of Industrial Renewal, Blasting French Unions and USA:
"How Stupid Do You Think We Are?"

I like it when people speak their minds. I like it even more when they are correct and they blast government officials at the highest levels. And I especially like it when the person blasting government is a prominent person.

Thus I am pleased to report an incredible letter from the CEO of Titan to Arnaud Montebourg, Minister of Industrial Renewal of France, criticizing not only French unions but unions in the USA.

Via Google translate from Les Echos, please consider Incredible Email From the CEO of Titan to Montebourg.

"Les Echos" received a copy of the letter which the President of the American Titan told the Minister of Industrial Renewal why he threw in the towel on purchasing the Goodyear plant Amiens Nord, in a very direct style.

"How Stupid Do You Think We Are?"

Here are some excerpts I transcribed from an image of the letter posted on Les Echos.

    Dear Mr. Montebourg:

    Goodyear tried for over four years to save part of the Amiens jobs that are some of the highest paid, but the French unions and French government did nothing but talk.

    I have visited the factory a couple of times. The French workforce gets paid high wages but works only three hours. They get one hour for breaks and lunch, talk for three, and work for three. I told this to the French union workers to their faces. They told me that's the French way!

    The Chinese are shipping tires into France - really all over Europe - and yet you do nothing. In five years, Michelin won't be able to produce tire in France. France will lose its industrial business because government is more government.

    Sir, your letter states you want Titan to start a discussion. How stupid do you think we are? Titan is the one with money and talent to produce tires. What does the crazy union have? It has the French government. The French farmer wants cheap tire. He does not care if the tires are from China or India and governments are subsidizing them. Your government doesn't care either. "We're French!"

    The US government is not much better than the French. Titan had to pay millions to Washington lawyers to sue the Chinese tire companies because of their subsidizing. Titan won. The government collects the duties. We don't get the duties, the government does.

    Titan is going to buy a Chinese tire company or an Indian one, pay less than one Euro per hour and ship all the tires France needs. You can keep the so-called workers. Titan has no interest in the Amien North factory.

    Best regards,
    Maurice M. Taylor, Jr.
    Chairman and CEO

Morry "the Griz" Taylor

A quick internet search led me to Maurice Taylor

    Taylor was nicknamed "The Grizz" by Wall Street analysts for his tough negotiating style. Taylor has transformed Titan from a small wheel manufacturing business to a global producer of off-highway wheel and tire systems. Taylor has been in the wheel manufacturing business for over 30 years, and has worked with Titan in various sales, engineering and management positions. He attended Michigan Tech. Taylor served as president and CEO of the company from 1990 to 2005, when he became chairman and CEO.

    In 1996, Taylor ran as a Republican candidate for President of the United States, campaigning to bring sound fiscal management and business know-how to Washington.

Further Reading

For further reading, please consider economically insane proposal by French president Francois Hollande "Make Layoffs So Expensive For Companies That It's Not Worth It"

Given that any clear-thinking person should quickly realize that if companies cannot fire workers they will be extremely reluctant to hire them in the first place, it should be no surprise to discover French Unemployment Highest in 14 Years (And It's Going to Get Much Worse).

In France, Government spending amounts to 55% of total domestic output.

Please note that the French Labour Minister says France Totally Bankrupt

America To Send In Their Drones To Bomb 61398 ?


美国宣布新战略打击外国盗取商业机密


文件称外国窃取美国商业机密损害了美国国家安全
美国白宫星期三(2月20日)公布一份新的战略文件,宣称将采取严厉措施打击日益严重的外国盗窃 美国商业机密活动。
白宫是在美国网络安全公司指责中国军方参与网络黑客攻击行动的背景下公布这份文件的,但是文件并没有直接点出中国的名字。

本周早些时候,美国网络安全公司Mandiant发布报告,指责驻扎在上海的一支秘密的中国军队对140多家美国公司发动了计算机 网络攻击。
一些观察家指出,Mandiant公司的报告和辅助证据使美国政府受到压力,需要对指称中的中国多年来的系统性的网络间谍活动采取 行动。
断然否认
但是,中国方面断然否认了上述指称,并且形容Mandiant公司的报告存在着严重的缺陷。中国外交部发言人还说,中国本身就是网 络攻击的受害者,而中国所受的攻击主要源自美国。
美国白宫星期三发表的战略文件说,“我们将继续积极行动,打击那些可能被外国公司和外国政府用来获得不公平的经济优势的盗窃美国商 业机密的行为。”
文件还说,窃取商业机密的行为威胁了美国商业利益,破坏美国国家安全,危害了美国的就业。
美国白宫的一位官员表示,这份新的战略文件并不仅仅针对某一个特定的国家,也不是仅仅把注意力集中在网络安全方面,虽然网络安全是 一个重要的方面。
文件提出了保护美国发明创造的五项措施:通过高级官员施加外交压力,要求外国领导人反对窃取知识产权;帮助美国企业采取最佳的反偷 窃手段;加强执行美国法律,增加调查和起行动;审查法律,必要时予以加强;开展宣传活动,加强公众意识。

英媒:61398部队—中国网战中心


这个单位被命名为“61398部队”的单位长期以来受到西方网络安全公司和情报 部门的关注。
今天英国各大报都报道了所谓的“中国网络战的总部”。报道美国如何受到来自那里的网络攻 击。
《泰晤士报》说,西方网络安全公司根据线索把中国发动网络攻击的基地锁定在由解放军拥有的一座大楼内。

《每日电讯报》的报道说,这座位于浦东的大楼从外面看很普通,但是它被认定为世界上最具威胁性的军方网络攻击的中心。美国 电脑分析专家在调查100多次对政府部门、公司和新闻机构的网络攻击过程中发现,所有线索都指向这座位于上海的大楼。
《泰晤士报》 报道说在美国佛吉尼亚的一个网络安全公司发表了长达60页的报告称在上海浦东一座12层高的大楼中为解放军服务的大批通英语的电脑专家每天从事黑客活动 侵入外国网络。
报道说,一名美国国防部高级官员称,在冷战时期美国的注意力都集中在莫斯科周围的核指挥中心,但是现在美国担心的是在上海 的那个电脑中心。

中西网络战

《金融时报》报道说,美国的网络安全报告指中国军方发动网络攻击,许多西方公司说他们成为这些来自中国网络攻击的目标。
美国官员说,冷战时期对战略导弹的担忧已经为对网络攻击的担忧取代
《国际先驱论坛报》报道,这个被称为“61398部队”的单位已经在相当一段时间内受到西方网络安全公司和情报部门的关 注。最早它在2006年就受到美国关注,最近两年来自那里的黑客攻击数量猛增。
《卫报》在相关报道中说,中国军队涉及黑客攻击。报道说,这次的黑客攻击指责无疑令西方和中国之间的网 络战争升温。报道说,自从美国国防部和英国军情6处确认了所谓“骤雨”(Titan Rain)这个来自中国的黑客群后,中西方网络战就开始愈演愈烈。据指代号为“骤雨”的中国黑客在2006年从美国国防部和国会盗取数据。
《泰晤士报》报道,美国总统奥巴马上周在国情咨文讲话中呼吁使用更强硬的措施对付美国受到的网络威胁。但是《国际先驱论坛 报》报道说,奥巴马总统面临困难抉择:难道电脑攻击会成为中美这两个世界最大经济体对抗的理由吗?

“网络蓝军”

《国际先驱论坛报》报道,美国国家安全委员会发言人说,美国一再向中国最高层官员和军队的最高级官员提及美国对来自中国的 黑客攻击的担忧,今后美国还会继续向中国交涉。
《泰晤士报》还报道说,BBC记者昨天试图拍摄那座大楼的时候受阻,并且被迫删除了拍摄的录像资料。 《每日电讯报》报道说,大楼外面用中英文写着“军事禁区,不许拍照”的字样。大门外面有解放军哨兵把守,外面围墙上写有大幅 标语,内容是“忠于党、热爱人 民,献身国防事业”。
《泰晤士报》报道说,虽然北京一再否认允许黑客攻击,坚持说黑客攻击是跨国界的匿名行为,但是据《金融时报》报道,中国 《解放军报》去年报道说,军方组建了专门对付网络攻击的所谓 “网络蓝军”。