Canada Next To Crash ?

Canada Bleeding Private Jobs; Vancouver Home Sales Plunge 16.7 Percent; Crash Awaits

The Financial Post has an interesting story on the state of the Canadian jobs market. It seem over 100% of job growth is from government jobs.

    Canada may have added 1,800 jobs in October, but that number hides the fact that almost all the gains came from government and that the private sector lost more than 20,000 jobs.
    The 1,800 jobs added was already a disappointment compared with the 10,000 economists had forecast. According to Statistics Canada, that left the unemployment rate unchanged at 7.4%.
    The six-month average for jobs gains is now 29,400, according to Reuters. But it’s a very different story when you look at the private sector and public sector separately.
    “Details of the report were much worse than the headline number with the private sector showing a loss of 21,000 in October, the fourth decline in six months,” said Matthieu Arseneau, senior economist with the National Bank of Canada. “Over the period, the private sector is actually showing a loss of 12,000 jobs, compared to a surge of 76,000 jobs in the public sector.”
    “With earnings of TSX companies down 30% so far in the third quarter, we do not expect a hiring spree anytime soon,” he said.

It is good to see realistic comments from analysts. Matthieu Arseneau, is spot on with his comments.

Vancouver Home Sales Plunge 16.7 Percent

The Globe and Mail reports Vancouver home prices sink 3.4% from peak as sales plunge
    Home sales in the Vancouver area plunged 16.7 per cent in October from a year earlier, though picked up markedly from September.
    In an indication of how that market’s performing, sales were 28.5 per cent below a 10-year October sales average of 2,700, the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver said today, while the composite benchmark price for residential properties is down 3.4 per cent from its peak of $625,100 in May.
    Along with Toronto, Vancouver has been a worry spot for observers. The country’s housing market has cooled notably since the latest round of government efforts to tighten the mortgage market, though most economists don’t envision a meltdown.

Economists never envision a meltdown. But a massive meltdown is coming anyway. I must admit the pool of greater fools in Vancouver and Toronto was far, far bigger than I thought possible, but at long last the pool seems to have dried up. A crash awaits.