KL Stocks - IFCAMSC & Redtone

USD - Come The Mother Lode of All ?

As I have been writing last ( 6/9/2009) on a possible return of the USD bull, the USD yesterday staged a powerful rebound, closing above the long term resistance trend line for the first time for a long time. Its recent low also slightly overshot its Fibonacci 75% retracement level of its last major bull cycle. Thus satisfying the condition on this possible wave 2 count. These are some of the initial confirmations I have been waiting for.

The daily chart MACD has turned positive and pushing upward. I would like see it crosses up above its own zero signal line. The RSI has also turned up towards its 50 signal line. A cross up of above the 50's would be another one of those confirmation I am looking forward for. Of course both the indicators have already formed a bullish divergence which is compulsory for anyone to call for a major reversal in the market.

The ADX which is above both the D- and D+ has turned down which may be confirming that the prior bearish trend has ended. But since its current reading is 22 and is turning down, so beware that a new trend has not formed yet. We would need to see more powerful moves up in bring up this indicator which would of course confirming the new trend.

A closing of above 76.70 would be a more assuring confirmation that the bull is back. And if prices are to fall its recent low, this possible bull move is again void.

And if my wave count is correct, the next bull wave should be a wave 3 in a major bull cycle which any Elliot Wave students can tell you :- it would be the mother of all bull waves.

KL Stocks - Digistar-WA, SHChan & Symphny

Has DJIA reached a top ?

I last wrote on the DJIA on March 14th. on the return of the current bull. (http://tunmarvinworld.blogspot.com/2009/03/is-dow-jones-bottoming-out.html) DJIA has since rallied 3,500 + points and now within a striking distance of +-250 points of hitting its 50% retracement target of 10,300. So what could be coming next ?

The daily chart is now blinking some warnings that this bull is getting stale. The Stochastic is above the 80's zone and has begun to cross down. It may soon cross down below the 80's level which may be taken as an initial sell signal. The MACD is especially alarming as it has been registering a series of lower peaks as prices continue to climb. We can even see a clear similar divergence at the falling ADX which is telling us the trend is fading. At this point of time, as long as price can maintain above the lower Bollinger Band or the MACD staying above its zero signal line, this market may still able to go further up. But it is near one of those time that everyone should start getting cautious.

So far the weekly chart is maintaining its bullishness with prices stay above the upper Bollinger Band and the MACD still heading upward.

If DJIA is able to stay above 10,300 level, the next possible upside target would be its 61.8% of 11,250.

KCPO - Take profit first - 26/10/09

My previous stop of 2112 was not hit, so the long positions stay. Now the question is :- should we take out the positions at around 2267 ? I think it is a difficult question as the Stochastic has already gone into the overbought zone. Since the ADX is still continuing to fall and now it is below 20's level, so I would watch the Stochastic rather than on the MACD. But the D+ has now crossed up above the D- which is confirming the bull. This crossover signal is also being confirmed the "extreme point rule" which is the 2nd day prices must be higher than the crossover day's high. And I also like the part where the MACD has now crossed up above its zero signal line which is usually a more reliable buy signal.


The weekly chart Stochastic has already crossed up but the MACD remains negative and so is the D- which is still above the D+. But prices has now able to close above the middle Bolliner Band which is effectively the 20 periods moving average. So what we have here now is 2 bearish indicators, another one and price are positive. A contradiction. This is being further confirmed by the falling ADX which is now at 15's.

Summarily , with a falling and daily and weekly lowly ADX, I would suggest you should take out the longs at high. At present, I would use the Stochastic to generate buy and sell signals as the ADX is low. I think this market may consolidate for a while before taking the next major direction.

FKLI - I get nervous - 26/10/09

Last week either you are still hanging to your longs because 1238 stop was not breached or you had taken them out on Wednesday when it went below the previous day's low minus 2 points. If you are still holding the longs, then place the stop at 1257. If you have no position in the market, it is okay too. You may re-enter long position if price breaks last high. Otherwise you may want to wait for a new sell signal to materialize.

The Stochastic has already has a negative crossover, but it is still above the 80's level. I would take a crossing down the 80's as a new initial sell signal. The MACD may still maintain positive, but the bearish divergence is just getting uglier. But as long as it stays positive, you have little reason to sell as that would be going against the trend, especially price still able to maintain above the top Bollinger Band. The ADX has now risen above both the D+ and D- and has turned flat which is telling us that this market may be overbought. A flat ADX usually mean the market is losing steam. But of course, the market can remain "overbought" for days and weeks before it collapses. So at the moment, you just make yourself of such and it is not yet becoming a signal to sell.


Though the daily chart has become a bit of shaky, the weekly chart continues to be bullish as ever. Prices still able to hold above the upper Bollinger Band while the ADX continues to rise. This is complimenting the bull is with a trend. The Stochastic has already a series of minor bearish divergences as each peak is lower than the
last. You would be wise to monitor this if crosses down its own 80's signal line.

As discussed here last week, FKLI has already achieved its 61.8% retracement. It next possible target would be the 75% level. Of course nobody can tell you for sure whether it will go there. I would exercise extra cautions as from now onwards especially with the daily volume dwindling. I also take note the DJIA is also within 200+ points of hitting its 50% target. For a much more matured financial market such as theirs, a 50% retracement level is usually more prominent. It is because of such coincidence of our cycle with theirs, you should be more prudent with your trading.

Die! America die !

For the past year, never a day goes by that you do not hear or read something about the coming demise of the world's great Satan as other countries would finally get fed up and stop buying their debts and USD. And we even get some nations' leaders saying it loud in the public on their "worries". But wait, what is this ? The facts and figures seem to be saying the MFs have been jiving. Read on:-


"Treasury markets are attracting record demand -- Until foreign central banks flee from US Treasury debt, one plank of the inflationists’ platform is missing. Wholesale abandonment of US Treasury debt would cause interest rates to soar, which would raise the cost of capital in the US. But the data clearly shows that foreign central banks have not abandoned the US Treasury. As the chart indicates, foreign net purchases of Treasuries hit an all-time high at $100.53 B in June 2009, with China and Japan leading the way."

KL Stocks -AEM & Baswell

Mother of All Hedges ?

Everyday when you open the newspaper pages or on the TV, you are bombarded by "experts" telling us that how USD will fast becoming Japanese Occupation Army banana notes and how inflation would wipe out all your savings. And they always conclude that you should start buying gold in one form or another (our beloved local banks even issued gold funds etc) because they "think" gold is the mother of all hedges against all the nasty things in life.

Before William's article appeared a few days ago, I was always trying to explain to my friends - "no, gold is NOT the mother of all hedge" simply because the today USD2,000 is definitely very much lesser than that the 1980's USD. Period. In fact, gold has today really turned into fool's gold - luring many fools into the scam of buying.

Of course, one day, gold may really reaches $7,150 but that only mean you have just broken even if you had bought them back at 1980 peak price. No gains. Talk about missed opportunity cost if you had invested in some other sector. In fact if you put a gold chart expressed in a basket of non-USD currencies, the chart is so lousy. Meanwhile have you ever start to wonder why entity like the IMF has been dumping gold recently ? God forbids - it could be just another America's dirty conspiracy to suck the rest of the world dry !

John Williams : $7,150 is the inflation-adjusted equivalent to gold's 1980 peak.


“If the methodologies of measuring inflation in 1980 had been kept intact, gold would have to hit $7,150 to be the equivalent of the 1980 record,” Williams said.

Gold would need to rise more than sixfold to top the 1980 record, using a more accurate inflation-adjustment, said John Williams, an economist and the editor of Berkeley, California. He said the government has understated the cost of living over the past two decades with adjustments in the way it measures the basket of goods and services monitored by the U.S. consumer price index, or CPI.

KL Stock -K1

KL Stocks - AIRB, PBA, SCIB & Tawin

KL Stocks - OSK, OSKVI, Orient,Jerneh, Encorp & AWC

Who really discovered the Jackson 5?

Diana Ross is thought by many to have discovered the Jackson 5. But longtime Motown promotions man Weldon McDougal remembers it differently.

Having just been bumped up to director of special projects at the label, McDougal was in Chicago making preparations for a Bobby Taylor and the Vancouvers show. They had a record out called “Does Your Mother Know About Me?”

“So I [went] to Chicago [to] make arrangements at the club they were playing to take about four or five of the tables up front for VIP tables ... things like that,” remembers McDougal. “Got it all situated so that when the main night came, which was a couple nights later, they would greet our guests.”

There to handle everything on a Wednesday, McDougal found out the club was having a talent show that evening. The winner would open for Taylor two nights later. The Jackson 5 stole the show, and they reminded McDougal of an act called The Twilights that were on the Harthon label in Philadelphia. McDougal was a partner in the label. “They used to do a little skit on James Brown, like Michael was doing,” he explains. “I thought, ‘He’s doing just what The Twilights was doing, and they used to get over.”

The patriarch of the Jackson family, Joe Jackson, was there. Eager to get his sons on Motown, Joe found out McDougal worked for the Detroit institution. “He came to me and said, ‘Listen, we would like to be on Motown. Who do we get in touch with?’ And I said, ‘Man, I’m just the promotion man.’ But let me tell you, Bobby Taylor, who was a friend ... he just got an agreement with Motown that he could produce whoever he wanted and present it to the company,” says McDougal. “So he said, ‘Could you introduce me?’ And I said, ‘Well, Bobby will be here Friday.’ He said, ‘OK,” and he, on that Friday, and the guy who did Steeltown Records — he was there with Joe — and I introduced them to Bobby Taylor, and they told me at that time that they had a contract already signed by Atlantic Records. But Joe wanted to be on Motown. He felt like it was a bigger company. And that’s when I first met them.”

McDougal ran into the Jackson 5 again in New York City. Taylor was playing the Apollo Theater, and he wanted McDougal to come to the show. He did, and he found out the Jackson 5 — though they weren’t on Motown yet — was opening for Taylor. “I said, ‘Hey man, how did you do that?’ He said, ‘Oh man, don’t worry about it.’ I never knew how they did it,” says McDougal.

Again, the Jackson 5 electrified the crowd. McDougal called up radio broadcasting legend Georgie Woods to tell him about the show at the Apollo, and “ ... he said, ‘OK, put the father on the phone. No, put the manager on the phone,’ which was Joe. And the next thing I knew they were playing at Philadelphia’s famed doo-wop and soul venue, the Uptown Theater.

Eventually, Taylor got the Jackson 5 to Motown. But the next time McDougal saw them, they were down in the dumps. “They were sitting on the bench at Motown and they were looking kind of glum,” says McDougal. “And I said, ‘What’s wrong with you guys?’ They said, ‘Oh, man, nothing. We’re waiting for Bobby to come out.’ You know, Bobby was trying to get them some recording time. They couldn’t get in the studio because Motown had all these acts making hits. They don’t know nothing about these little guys. And Bobby, I would say, he went all out for them. He broke a lot of the rules and regulations to try to get them to record, and finally he got them to record. And then he wanted everybody to hear the product, which took a while for that to happen.”

But it did happen. Berry Gordy heard the group and the rest is history. As for Ross, she was with Gordy when he was first introduced to them. “And she said, ‘They are some cute little guys. I like Michael Jackson. He’s a cute little guy. And he was like, ‘Oh, Ms. Ross, you’re so nice.’ And they just made friends,” says McDougal.

But the story doesn’t end there, of course. McDougal was charged with promoting the Jackson 5’s initial nationally released single, “I Want You Back.” As McDougal recalls, “Nobody wanted to play it. I mean, it was hard getting it on [radio].”

Not only were they a new group, but the Jackson 5 were just kids, going up against established Motown hitmakers. A meeting was held to figure out how to get past this stumbling block. “I don’t know if I said it or not, but we came to a point where they said, ‘Let’s make the Jackson 5 Diana Ross’ protégés,’” says McDougal. Ross was then photographed sitting on a stool with the Jackson 5 around here. It was made into a postcard McDougal took to radio stations while conducting a second round of promotional stops for the record.

“I would give this postcard out saying, ‘They’re Diana Ross’ protégés,” says McDougal. “For some reason, it got screwed around where the press said Diana Ross discovered them. And when that word got around, more guys started playing the record. So I wasn’t going to say that she didn’t discover them.”

Why let the truth get in the way of a good story, and a good investment?


by Peter Lindblad

Japanese Nomura may have hired gigolos and whores ?

Now and then, there are always some people who tell me that they think the Japanese are smarter people. I have my doubts. I place the reasons for their successes (Toyota, Sony etc) on their nation's good Ba Tzi that happens to work with the last few decades cycle. Now with their "lost 10 years" and the current financial tsunami , everyone can see they are no different but may instead be dumber than many of us:-

Nomura's acquisition of Lehman's internal operations has not gone as smoothly as everyone had hoped. The Lehman employees are being very difficult, all but refusing to submit to their new employer's way of doing things. Particularly the women. Despite being told that short sleeves are not acceptable, as they are the clothes of whores, these Lehman ladies apparently spent the summer just absolutely slutting it up. I'm talking sleeveless tops. I'm talking silk shirts. I'm talking bright nail ! polish. Well no more! The summer's over, and you've had your kicks. It's time to lock it up and know what else? This goes for any of the men straddling the line between "upstanding businessman" and gigolo. And don't give me this shit that you couldn't understand the memo. One short sleeve, one red nail-- and I mean one-- and you're gone.

Exactly a year after Nomura made its successful lunge for Lehman Brothers, the official line in Tokyo is that the merger is running like clockwork.

One or two oddments, though, are still getting lost in translation — despite the ready availability of native English speakers around to take a glance over any important company circulars.

A recent e-mail politely reminded staff in Nomura’s Tokyo headquarters that “gay colour nail polish and manucure” fell outside the company’s strict dress code.

The trading floor was also left baffled by guidelines on the correct type of trousers: “Wear the one gives to the ankle to the height of pants”.

The awkwardly-worded memo, which one former Lehman Brothers recipient described as “sounding like a Japanese VCR instruction manual from the '80s” was an attempt to rein-in bankers’ attire after the long, relatively permissive days of summer.

September 30 marked the end of Nomura’s “Cool Biz” summer ecological campaign for its Tokyo headquarters — an annual scheme that amounts to turning the thermostat up slightly and allowing people to take their jackets and ties off.

With autumn now arrived those carefree, tie-less months are gone and the winter dress code is in force. “Bare foots”, said the memo, are no longer appropriate.

Unsuitable clothes are listed by category. Under the “jacket and suit” heading, for example, bankers are reminded to avoid “the one of lustrous material”. Skirts may neither be extremely short nor be a “skirt that deep slit entered”.

A Nomura spokesperson said that the unfortunate translation was a well-intentioned attempt by one Japanese manager to make sure that people knew the summer dress code had ended.

KL Stocks - DBE, Humeind, Inix, Jaskita, OSK-WB, Emivest, PJDev, PJDev-WB, PPHB & Tenaga

CPO - Be ready to take profit - 19/10/09

This market did not make much headway on the upside but it also did not hit my stop. So my long positions stay as the Stochastic continues to rise and the MACD has also turned positive and rises toward its own zero signal line which would be a more bullish signal. But unfortunately the ADX has now being falling which is confirming a lack of trend in the past week. And also pay attention to the fact that the D- is still above the D+ which is not confirming an overall bullish mode in this market.


The weekly chart has some changes from the previous week's as price has now managed to close above the lower Bollinger Band but the MACD remain negative. The Stochastic has turned around upward but is still negative. The most important of all is the flat ADX which is below the 20 's signal line which mean this market is 'dead'. I have drawn a down sloping trendline marking out its resistance which is quite near the upper Bollinger band. Taking this, only turn bullish if prices manage to close above those levels.

Since the ADX is not too encouraging, place your stop at 2112 or maybe you should take off your long positions when the Stochastic goes into its overbought zone . Take note 2208 is the 38% and 2267 is the 50% retracement levels for this rebound within the bigger bear cycle. You may also use your discretion to take out your longs at those levels.

If the daily ADX is to fall below its 20's signal line , that would make it mirroring that of the weekly chart's which I expect this market to go into one of those long period range bound situation which would be difficult to take up positions trading.

FKLI - Stay long but stay cool headed - 19-10-09

The long trades went nicely last week as price continued to go up. By last Thursday, the upside target of 1250 has already been reached. At this moment, the MACD continues to be positive and rising while the Stochastic remains above its 80's signal line, and price stays above the upper Bollinger Band. The ADX is still rising which is telling us the trend is still intact. So everything remain rosy and I start look at 1390 as its next possible target.

But at these levels I would turn more cautious about the overall bullishness as 1,250 is the 61.8% retracement level for the whole prior down cycle. As we only had a bullish divergence at the daily chart but NOT in the weekly chart, so I would count the current bull cycle as a strong technical rebound in a grossly oversold market and not as a brand new bull cycle. The diminishing and smallish volume for the past week were NOT too convincing too. And with the multiple bearish divergence still in place, I think you should NOT be too carried away by the current bullish "recovery" talks.


The weekly chart remains bullish as the MACD is still rising while price stays above the upper Bollinger Band and the rising ADX means the current bull trend is still intact.

So as per last week's strategy, you should stay on the buy side but place your stop at 1238 or a tighter one at the previous day's low minus 2 points. If price closes below 1222, it would warrant a new bearish reading of this market.

All the juicey stuffs in Hong Kong

「冒牌股神」, 「富豪入院」,唔認輸,損手爛腳,公堂講數, 和头酒:-

恒生指數於去年十月三十日攀上三萬一千點的高位，當時無論散戶及富豪皆如痴如醉，一眾私人銀行家亦順勢向富豪推銷金融衍生工具，當中包括現時成為富豪毒瘤的accumulator（累計股票期權）合約；年期大多一年或年半。所以踏入今年十一月，買入accumulator的富豪就到期陸續與行結賬。這時市場亦謠言滿天飛，繼傳出有富豪炒踎股入養和休養後，又傳有富豪唔認輸要與投資銀行對簿公堂。

本月初，在灣仔福臨門就設有一席富豪飯局，出席富豪包括嘉里主席郭鶴年、東亞銀行主席李國寶等，而最耐人尋味的是律政司司長黃仁龍以及前高盛高層Tim Dattels也是座上客。這場騷一上演，令人推測是一眾富豪向投資銀行家造勢反擊。

當日是週六，中午十二時多，東亞銀行主席李國寶先到達灣仔福臨門；相隔一分鐘，有「大馬糖王」之稱的嘉里集團主席郭鶴年亦到達，兩人交頭接耳，雙雙步入酒樓。不到十分鐘，律政司司長黃仁龍亦到場，並由李國寶親自迎接；而人稱「細劉」的劉鑾鴻，則早已在福臨門內恭候。

至下午三時，細劉率先步出，手上拿覑一個公文袋。而李國寶亦在數分鐘後扶覑郭鶴年步出飯店，黃仁龍則和一位外籍人士在混亂中離開。李國寶事後向在場記者表示，與黃仁龍「識鰦好耐，是好好朋友，亦傾鰦好多№。」至於內容有否涉及令不少富豪損手爛腳的Accumulator，李國寶答道：「唔只傾呢鱓！」至於律政司的發言人，則說當日午膳屬黃仁龍的私人聚會不清楚飯局內容。

最近金融界盛傳，部分富豪炒股損手，正尋求法律意見，希望從購股合約中找出漏洞，追討賠償。而巧合地在這富豪飯局前數日，就發生了一場驚心動魄的海嘯襲港股。血肉長城斬頭盤現

十月二十八日（星期一）的慘況，大部分股民仍記憶猶新。當日恒指在上午跌過五百點後，下午忽然急瀉不止，最多跌過一千九百點，一度失守萬一點關口，最後守住一萬一千點以上收市，單日跌幅達一成二。

當日除了一般散戶，連超級富豪亦中招。一名知情富豪說：「當日下午一開市，恒指已急跌，到二時多三時，高盛證券及礇豐證券鮋銀行家紛紛聯絡富豪，表示他們必須在十五分鐘內抬錢補倉，否則作斬倉處理！」

該富豪續說，以往遇到此情況，銀行在金額及期限上都「有數講」，以免得失貴客，但當日銀行卻態度堅決。而最「抵死」的，是當日銀行都是經短訊（SMS）通知富豪，免得他們因「接收不清」或由秘書記錄而事後拗數。該富豪憤憤不平說：「好多有錢佬都唔會有咁多現金鰠身，加上無人肯借，結果輸得勁慘。最慘係鱓Accumulator合約，話斬就斬，仲要當違約計算，追討即日至合約到期時應購入的股份差價損失！」

部分富豪對投資銀行的絕情深感不忿，亦懷疑有人藉香港仍未限制沽空，全心質低股市，「鰠大跌市前的四個交易日，港股已連跌二千七百多點，好多人都以為週末中央會救市而有技術性反彈，於是造好倉，點知美資行要繼續質低

『斬大客』！」

事實上，在大跌市前三天，摩根士丹利便施展「魔笛追魂」，表示礇豐的目標價為七十五元，結果當日四點收市時，礇豐股價為七十八元，但打後的競價時段，卻被狂質至七十五元，而當日礇豐的沽空股數達三百多萬，較前一個交易日多七成；瑞銀及礇豐證券的賣盤便布滿大利市機。如富豪購入與礇豐掛鹇的Accumulator，就輸到「仆直」。

高盛猛人客串

而富豪飯局當日，除了有律政司司長黃仁龍出席，與他一同離開的外籍人士，來頭亦甚猛，原來他是高盛的前董事總經理Tim Dattels。○三年他退出高盛後，加入新橋資本（Newbridge Capital）任董事總經理。Tim Dattels與一眾富豪相識，「佢同何柱國好老友，是星島的董事；也是香格里拉亞洲董事，與郭鶴年亦好熟，叫對方做『uncle』，可以提供相關鮋投資意 見。」TimDattels一友人說。

富豪高調與司法及金融界人士飯聚，即時惹來議論紛紛，有富豪認為別有用心：「當日有咁多記者等『大劉』影相，班富豪點會唔知好有機會曝光？唔排除有人帶鱓猛人來飯聚，刻意高調證明自己後台夠硬。要上庭同投資銀行對決的話，唔一定無得鬥，藉此向對方施壓！」

這邊廂細劉劉鑾鴻搞富豪飯局，那邊廂大劉劉鑾雄除忙於家事外，亦走出來向報章自稱並無炒Accumulator，但他活躍於股壇卻是人所共知。

認購建滔即買即沉

觀乎大劉的認購新股記錄，便發現其老貓燒鬚是不爭事實。以往大劉極少認購新股，但前年尾忽然投入新股熱。其中○六年尾身體力行支持好友、建滔化工主席張國榮；既出席其公司建滔積層板的上市推介會，亦斥資近八億元認購股份。若然他未有放售，這批股份便隨股價「即沉」近八成至只值一億多元。

不過最觸目莫過於他去年大炒平安保險。大劉與他的上市旗艦華人置業，去年分階段狂掃平保，最高曾在去年九月，以每股一百零七元高位增持，股權最多達百分之七，市值最高達二百億元。他曾表示會長線持有，但不足一個月便開始減磅，至去年十一月減持至毋須披露水平。本週二平保收報二十九元。華置今年七月，便披露待售證券出現巨額賬面虧損二十五億；去年底逾八十一億元的上市證券賬面值，經出售部分證券及調整賬面虧損後，減值一半至只有四十一億元。

回購股份露端倪

而一向財技「鬼魅莫測」的華置，亦出現不尋常舉動。由今年五月尾開始，華置幾乎每隔數日便回購股份，截至本週一，華置在今年內已回購股份六十四次，涉資逾二十億元。由於華置有多家基金持有，其中單是孩子基金TCI便持股逾百分之九，真正流通的街貨不多，股價容易炒上炒落；公司在場內回購，亦可令早前購入股票的「投資者」賣股套現。

到本月華置旗下的兩間公司至祥及金匡，都以「尚未物色到任何適合的投資機會」為由，向華置的兩家附屬公司借出「閒置及未動用的現金」；這兩筆三年期循環貸款融資，涉及共十一億港元，息口為香港銀行同業拆息加一釐。兩家華置附屬公司現時並無從事任何業務，但以大劉的財技如此了得，相信一定有後覑。

嘉里郭鶴年入院富豪疑雲

上月底，股票市場動盪，傳出有位城中富豪損手，需要入醫院休養，嘉里主席郭鶴年一度是疑似主角之一，不過他隨即於十一月一日出席福臨門飯局，當時身旁的李國寶還替他向記者說：「他身體好好，梗係無入過醫院！」

郭鶴年在富豪界中相對低調，不過他也熱衷於投資股票，有不少私人銀行家服侍，其中包括高盛的董事總經理郭德勝。而股市大軲，郭鶴年的私人投資包括股票、外幣及衍生工具回報都不理想，據知他與私人銀行家的關係亦變得「冷淡」起來。

事實上，郭鶴年的投資眼光亦認真「普通」，如他於去年中開始認購的最少十二隻新股，大多有蝕無賺。除了中交建及工商銀行賺了共六點六億之外，其餘新股至今賬面已蝕過億。當中最「甘」就是他花十四點一億抽的四隻內房股，包括Soho中國、碧桂園、奧園及復星，至今已蒸發超過八成投資金額，而十二隻新股共蒸發約十點三億。

而郭鶴年的嘉里建設，上星期把持有二十三年的尖沙咀安達中心，由十二億劈價至七點三億出售予玩具大王蔡志明。在地產市道如此低迷的環境下賤賣資產，令人有所猜測。據蔡志明向報章透露，是嘉里建設主動找他的。


事實上，安達中心零售樓面面積達十萬平方呎，另外有三分二面積都是停車場，共有九百八十個車位，出租回報有六釐，「旁邊鮋永安廣場、好時及明輝中心等都無停車場，附近酒店鮋車場又唔夠，所以安達鮋停車場向來出租率都好高，整個安達中心租金收入唔錯，嘉里以往一直都企硬十二億先賣，今次以七億成交，我懐都感到好突然。」一地產經紀說。嘉里建設出售安達中心後，公司於香港已落成的物業主要剩下九龍灣的企業廣場及何文田的灝畋峰，其餘地盤尚未發展，而嘉里建設佔八成物業都是來自內地。

有大馬糖王之稱的郭鶴年，在金融海嘯下，由嘉里集團持有五成三的嘉里建設及四成九的香格里拉亞洲，股價相比年初，跌幅達七成。單是這兩間上市公司，已令郭鶴年身家少近六百億。雖然郭鶴年在星洲及大馬的三間上市公司包括Singapore Wilmar International、PPB Group及Malaysian Bulk Carrier的股價跌幅相對香港小，但也足令郭鶴年少了八十億身家。埋單計數，郭鶴年的身家由年初至今，已蒸發七百億港元，其大馬首富地位亦受到威脅。

四太梁安琪一手蟹貨

近月市場傳聞賭王四太梁安琪，在海嘯中因投資失利而損手。投資界更盛傳，一向對錢甚為看重的四太，不時與投資銀行家理論。

記者致電向四太查詢，是否炒踎Accumulator，四太得悉後說：「而家個個人都有玩o架啦！呢個時勢無論投資地產定其他№，都會損手o架。」記者再問她是否考慮告礇豐及大摩等投資銀行，她更反問記者：「係大摩入面邊個職員傳出來o架？交個名俾我！」

金融海嘯直撲樓市，亦令向來鍾情投資物業的四太差點被沒頂。早前賭王被問到四太投資物業有否損手，他亦暗嘲：「你問佢喇，我就唔識咁叻，佢霸咁多（物業）！」○四年起已大手入市掃貨的她，近年更愈買愈豪，開始大舉進軍旺區商鋪及全幢商廈市場。由去年至今共斥資廿億買入四幢商廈，其中包括去年以近五億八千萬買入尖沙咀諾士佛臺十號全幢，以及今年以八億買入的中環中銀保險大廈，現已淪為 蟹貨。

一名地產業內人士指：「中銀保險大廈總樓面七萬五千幾平方呎，買入時呎價超過一萬蚊，但現時對面另一幢中保集團大廈，都只係做緊六千蚊一呎咋！而家大摩放售緊鮋星展銀行大廈，總樓面超過九萬平方呎，外面鮋人都係緊八至九億鮋價，四太呢件貨肯定要蝕啦。」現時中銀保險大廈市值估計只約五億元，一年間已貶值三成七。


雖然近年四太得到澳娛旗下的誠興銀行這條大水喉放水，幫手承造按揭，然而今年初賭王已將誠興賣予中國工商銀行，估計四太要為物業承造按揭也不易。其中四太去年以三億二掃入十圈共五十伙的大角咀浪澄灣，因部分買家找不到銀行承造按揭，發展商恒隆地產為免出現撻訂，准許部分買家延遲上會，傳聞四太是其中之一。她近期更不惜割價一成求售，但浪澄灣六百個單位，就有二百四十多個放盤，相信要甩手非易事。一手樓蟹的四太，這個嚴冬不易過。

信置黃志祥一手地王待消化

一班富豪想透過打官司替自己鬆綁，以往炒踎股找數其實「有數講」。信置主席黃志祥就是過來人。八七年十月，當時恒指由二千多點狂升至三千九百幾點，一方面黃志祥父親黃廷芳聯同李嘉誠、郭得勝等華資大戶，企圖狙擊置地控股權，另一方面黃志祥亦透過空殼公司買入一萬張期指「好倉」合約。然而其後美國爆發股災，港股停市四天後，復市即狂瀉逾千點，令黃志祥一鋪輸十億。

由於當時期交所管理未如現時完善，不少期貨公司任由期交所將公司清盤而不找數，黃志祥亦不例外。最後要當時的港督衛奕信出馬約黃志祥講數，最後港府願意收順些，以七五折找數，黃志祥最終願意分八年償還七億五千萬，事件才告一段落。

然而，今天黃志祥避得過Accumulator之禍，卻逃避不了高價買地的事實。素有樓市「大好友」之稱的他，近年投地絕不手軟，去年政府拍賣的十二幅地皮，當中六幅便由信置囊括。而去年十月份拍賣的香港仔惠福道地皮，更以驚天價五十七億一千萬元，成為
信置囊中物，購入價不但高底價一點二八倍，呎價更成為九七年後同區拍賣地皮的新高。


然而坊間流傳，每每信置天價投地，便是樓市牛氣結束之時。九七年亞洲金融風暴前，信置在九六至九七年一年內，以一百五十億購入十項物業及地皮，而
且愈買愈狠，其中以一百一十八億破紀錄高價投得小西灣藍灣半島地皮後，金
融風暴掩至，高價買地令信置的負債被扯高，最後信置要減價促銷樓盤套現，
以及由南豐陳廷驊出手入股信置一成，危機才漸漸減退。

統計近兩年，信置便以約三百億元，合共投得九幅分別位於本港及中國的貴重
地皮，計及信置攤分的權益，買地開支亦高達一百六十八億元。雖然公司負債
比率只有大約兩成，但手頭現金只有四十七億多的信置，去年已要配股集資四十三億元，以應付龐大買地開支。黃志祥上週說：「無沾Accumulator，而家就好幸福囉！」幸福與否，還得看信置如何處置近年買落的地王。

四叔水瓜打狗唔見一截

久未露面的李兆基，本週二晚在復旦大學教育發展基金會（香港）成立酒會上終於現身，勉為其難才說：「我唔識炒股票，而家波幅太大，唔識睇。」

今年七月中，雷曼倒閉前，恒指約為二萬一千七百點時，四叔曾透露兆基財經資產值已縮水四分之一，至一千五百億。事隔四個月，金融海嘯發，恒指再蒸發逾四成，四叔指兆基財經現時：「水瓜打狗，唔見一截！」

去年以「股神」姿態現身的李兆基，經常與傳媒講股論市，有服侍他的私人銀行家曾勸他不要太高調，成為不少中環人議論紛紛的主角，認為他過度興奮。但如今恒指較去年下滑近六成，李兆基已鮮有露面。

一向主張「長獱」、曾連番在大跌市時買貨托市的李兆基，上月底突然以每股逾十九元四角，出售三千多萬股中國人壽，套現約六億二千萬，獲利五億多元。四叔持有中人壽近五年，屬頭號愛股之一，去年股價一度衝上近五十四元，但四叔仍惜貨如金，如今股價大跌近六成四，才肯割愛。難怪四叔自謔為「冒牌股神」。

事實上，李兆基過去買入逾三十隻新股，若持有至今，賬面獲利已由去年底約五百七十多億元，跌至現時的不足六十四億元。其中，去年認購的超過十隻新股，包括被四叔形容為「蝕得好慘」的碧桂園等，本刊統計過全部跌穿招股價，損手超過二十億。

發明三寶至尊

今年，「Accumulator」成為富豪毒藥，李兆基馬上劃清界線，表示自己及兩位兒子均沒有沾手，但市場上另一與Accumulator性質相近，同樣受富豪熱捧的結構性產品——ELN（股票掛鹇票據），前身便是四叔的心頭好，由兆基財經發明的——「三寶至尊」。

「三寶」的玩法，是將幾項產品捆綁一起，可包括股票、指數等，只要在合約期內，產品價格或指數不低於協商的數目，便可收取百分之二十至二十五的利息，但一旦跌穿以最低者計，便要接貨，不能取回本金。○六年，「三寶至尊」更獲雷曼、瑞銀及法興，分別頒發○五年「最具智慧衍生工具投資大獎」、「金融投資產品先驅大獎」及「投資者創新金融產品大獎」，四叔更將這些獎座展示於恒基總部的會議室內。

高位力薦澳元

去年四叔除談股外，亦論及外匯。不過，如果有人跟從四叔高位買澳元者，肯定焦頭爛額，去年九月，當澳元兌港元攀上六點八二水平，息口達六釐半，四叔曾教導投資者，買入息高的澳元，再借港幣買貨，所謂「財息兼收」。但澳元踏入八月份急瀉，加上澳洲央行宣布減息，澳元兌港元跌至五元水平。今年，不少去年睇好澳元的投資者皆要損手，包括中信泰富。

以往李兆基與投行關係密切，在他的辦公桌上還貼上十七名投資銀行家的電話號碼，還寫上誰是「價好」的一家。這班幕後軍師，包括高盛的郭德勝及摩根大通的周慧芬等。股市大軲，李兆基與一眾「幕後軍師」的關係亦備受考驗。

富豪愛炒衍生工具一覽

Accumulator（累計股票期權）

玩法如對賭，投資者於合約年期內，可以折讓價買入指定數目的股票。但股票跌穿該折讓價，投資者卻要雙倍接貨，直至合約期滿。退出「唔玩」就只有與銀行協議平倉，斬頭離場。

Decumulator（累計認沽期權）

與Accumulator相反，若投資者看淡大市，可與私人銀行協議，在合約期內以較正股價為高的價格，沽售指定的股票獲利。當股票逆轉向上，升穿行使價，投資者仍只能以較市價低的行使價沽貨，直至合約期滿。Decumulator每次以現金結算，不涉及現貨。

ELN（Equity Linked Notes，股票掛鹇票據）

投資回報與一籃子股票掛鹇。發行商會開出提早贖回價、行使價及票息條件等，在任何觀察日，「籃子」中表現最差的股票，若升穿提早贖回價，合約便即時終止，投資者可拿回本金及協定的票息，反之，表現最差的股票在合約到期日跌穿行使價，投資者便要以行使價接貨，造成虧損。

Daily Range Accrual Notes（每日計息的股票掛鹇票據）

與ELN相似，但玩家可每日收息，令遊戲更吸引。玩家選擇了掛鹇的股票後，在合約期內該股票的每日收市價比當初設定的行使價高，投資者就可收到當日利息。該利息通常以略高於六個月倫敦銀行同業拆息為基礎。然而若股市下瀉，當日收市價較行使價低，投資者便無息收，甚至要每日接貨直至合約完結。

Accumulator之父

前財政司司長郭伯偉是一手把香港建構為自由市場經濟的人，然而他的孫兒Adam Cowperthwaite原來就是發明第一隻Accumulator（累計股票期權）的人，也是令不少香港富豪損手爛腳的金融衍生工具之一。事實上，Adam當初設計Accumulator主要是作為風險管理的工具，並非作為投機產品。Adam畢業於倫敦經濟學院，亦曾在JP Morgan、Chase Manhattan及Robert Fleming等國際投資公司任職。現為瑞信亞太區結構零售產品部門的主管。

Sex and the markets

City bankers 'regularly offer prostitutes to clients'

Financial firms often hold meetings in lap dancing clubs, according to evidence to the Treasury select committee

Kat Banyard of the Fawcett Society told the Treasury select committee that city bankers' clients are often invited to meetings in lap dancing bars.

City bankers entertain clients and try to generate business by offering trips to brothels, MPs heard today.

Kat Banyard of gender-equality pressure group the Fawcett Society told a Treasury select committee hearing into women's role in the City of London that there was a growing trend in the City to use prostitution to entertain clients.

"We took extensive evidence from individual women who said it was becoming frequent for meetings to be held in lap dance clubs, and I also had women speak to me and say that prostitution was being used in client deals or in ways to generate business – and that all of this culture created a very hostile environment, as you would expect, for female employees of those firms," she said.

One former City worker who gave evidence to the Fawcett Society said that while working for a top international investment bank in the City, she witnessed a senior manager looking for a brothel to entertain some Russian clients. "I was out drinking with some guys in my team when a very senior guy came over," she said. "He asked if anyone knew of a good brothel in Edinburgh. He said he had some Russian clients coming over and he wanted them to sign a multimillion-pound deal."

She added that when she worked in the Tokyo office of the same company, her London-based colleagues would often bring British colleagues over to Japan for "sex trips", where they would tell the company they were introducing clients to Japanese firms, but were actually visiting a number of seedy sex clubs.

"It's a deeply troubling problem that needs to be discussed openly," Banyard said. "If we're going to get more women into those institutions we need to change the culture before that happens."

The committee launched the investigation into women's role in the City as part of its attempt to prevent another crisis. There will be two more hearings, during which more evidence will be taken from people such as Harriet Harman, the minister for women and equality, and Trevor Phillips, the head of the Equality and Human Rights Commission.

But the select committee inquiry itself raised a few eyebrows on its launch in July as it emerged that only one of its 14 members would be a woman.

Former Bank of England policymaker Charles Goodhart, who is now professor emeritus of banking and finance at the London School of Economics, told the committee that the worst financial crisis since the second world war could have been prevented if more women were on the boards of major companies. "Women tend to be more cautious and have a longer term outlook. I think that men can be more aggressive and prepared to take larger risks," he said. "There would have been less likelihood of the financial crisis if we had a larger number of female chief executives in the financial sector."

He said that there were "remarkably few" female chief executives in the financial sector and that it is "a great pity". "I think that the longer term and cautious tendency that women have and less of the alpha male would be beneficial."

Nichola Pease, who runs the fund manager JO Hambro, told the committee that equality legislation in Britain was preventing women from getting the top jobs in the City. She said that many firms were scared of hiring women because penalties for successful sex discrimination claims were unlimited. Another factor that put companies off employing women was that women in the UK could take up to 52 weeks of maternity leave, compared with just 12 weeks in the US.

"A year's maternity leave is too long, and sex discrimination claims that run into 10s of millions of pounds are ridiculous," she told the committee.

Simple reason why Wall Street collapses

Wall Street collapses when smart people start working there

“IF you really want to know why the financial system nearly collapsed in the fall of 2008, I can tell you in one simple sentence.”

The statement came from a man sitting three or four stools away from me in a sparsely populated Midtown bar, where I was waiting for a friend. “But I have to buy you a drink to hear it?” I asked.

“Absolutely not,” he said. “I can buy my own drinks. My 401(k) is intact. I got out of the market 8 or 10 years ago, when I saw what was happening.”

He did indeed look capable of buying his own drinks — one of which, a dry martini, straight up, was on the bar in front of him. He was a well-preserved, gray-haired man of about retirement age, dressed in the same sort of clothes he must have worn on some Ivy League campus in the late ’50s or early ’60s — a tweed jacket, gray pants, a blue button-down shirt and a club tie that, seen from a distance, seemed adorned with tiny brussels sprouts.

“O.K.,” I said. “Let’s hear it.”

“The financial system nearly collapsed,” he said, “because smart guys had started working on Wall Street.” He took a sip of his martini, and stared straight at the row of bottles behind the bar, as if the conversation was now over.

“But weren’t there smart guys on Wall Street in the first place?” I asked.

He looked at me the way a mathematics teacher might look at a child who, despite heroic efforts by the teacher, seemed incapable of learning the most rudimentary principles of long division. “You are either a lot younger than you look or you don’t have much of a memory,” he said. “One of the speakers at my 25th reunion said that, according to a survey he had done of those attending, income was now precisely in inverse proportion to academic standing in the class, and that was partly because everyone in the lower third of the class had become a Wall Street millionaire.”

I reflected on my own college class, of roughly the same era. The top student had been appointed a federal appeals court judge — earning, by Wall Street standards, tip money. A lot of the people with similarly impressive academic records became professors. I could picture the future titans of Wall Street dozing in the back rows of some gut course like Geology 101, popularly known as Rocks for Jocks.

“That actually sounds more or less accurate,” I said.

“Of course it’s accurate,” he said. “Don’t get me wrong: the guys from the lower third of the class who went to Wall Street had a lot of nice qualities. Most of them were pleasant enough. They made a good impression. And now we realize that by the standards that came later, they weren’t really greedy. They just wanted a nice house in Greenwich and maybe a sailboat. A lot of them were from families that had always been on Wall Street, so they were accustomed to nice houses in Greenwich. They didn’t feel the need to leverage the entire business so they could make the sort of money that easily supports the second oceangoing yacht.”

“So what happened?”

“I told you what happened. Smart guys started going to Wall Street.”

“Why?”

“I thought you’d never ask,” he said, making a practiced gesture with his eyebrows that caused the bartender to get started mixing another martini.

“Two things happened. One is that the amount of money that could be made on Wall Street with hedge fund and private equity operations became just mind-blowing. At the same time, college was getting so expensive that people from reasonably prosperous families were graduating with huge debts. So even the smart guys went to Wall Street, maybe telling themselves that in a few years they’d have so much money they could then become professors or legal-services lawyers or whatever they’d wanted to be in the first place. That’s when you started reading stories about the percentage of the graduating class of Harvard College who planned to go into the financial industry or go to business school so they could then go into the financial industry. That’s when you started reading about these geniuses from M.I.T. and Caltech who instead of going to graduate school in physics went to Wall Street to calculate arbitrage odds.”

“But you still haven’t told me how that brought on the financial crisis.”

“Did you ever hear the word ‘derivatives’?” he said. “Do you think our guys could have invented, say, credit default swaps? Give me a break! They couldn’t have done the math.”

“Why do I get the feeling that there’s one more step in this scenario?” I said.

“Because there is,” he said. “When the smart guys started this business of securitizing things that didn’t even exist in the first place, who was running the firms they worked for? Our guys! The lower third of the class! Guys who didn’t have the foggiest notion of what a credit default swap was. All our guys knew was that they were getting disgustingly rich, and they had gotten to like that. All of that easy money had eaten away at their sense of enoughness.”

“So having smart guys there almost caused Wall Street to collapse.”

“You got it,” he said. “It took you awhile, but you got it.”

The theory sounded too simple to be true, but right offhand I couldn’t find any flaws in it. I found myself contemplating the sort of havoc a horde of smart guys could wreak in other industries. I saw those industries falling one by one, done in by superior intelligence. “I think I need a drink,” I said.

He nodded at my glass and made another one of those eyebrow gestures to the bartender. “Please,” he said. “Allow me.”

CALVIN TRILLIN

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