Crude Oil - kicking OPEC in the face soon ?

I wrote on crude oil back in February 19th. and April 15th. I was commenting that a super bull may be returning soon in this market. I was ridiculed by some of my friends because most of them just could not see the logic behind a crude's bull when the whole world was reeling in pains after the 2008 financial crisis. I , too, cannot offer any explanation except that was what the charts were saying then.

Of course soon after which, crude oil did rally all the way to USD70+. The past few weeks, crude oil chart begins to warrant a different readings. And this time, it seems to be foretelling it may be time to think about the bears again.

At the daily chart, I would immediately notice what looks like a triple tops which is usually extremely bearish. With the triple tops, then there is the series of lower peaks at the MACD which means a triple bearish divergence which is extremely rare.The D- is now above the D+ and a falling Stochastic are both confirming its current bearish reading. The ADX has fallen below its 20's signal line since early August which is confirming the lack of direction for now.


The weekly chart's ADX is confirming the lack of trend at the daily chart as it has fallen below its 20's signal line. So is the price which has got stuck within the lower and upper Bollinger Bands. The weekly MACD has begun to turn around but at this time it has NOT turned negative yet. The Stochastic has formed
a bearish divergence with the prices.

A closing below the lower Bollinger Band would most probably signal the beginning of a new bear cycle. And yes, it would sound so strange when the whole world is talking about a bottom and an economic recovery (heh, even our very own Bank Negara Governor talks about it too!) and here I am talking about a possible collapse of the crude oil's price.