Revisiting the crude oil

Since I last wrote on crude oil on February, the market has managed to go up a bit from mid March and then it is caught in another range. (as marked out by 2 horizontal lines) This is not unexpected as ADX continues to stay below its 20 signal line which is effectively telling us that this market is quite "dead". Other confirmations that this market is not going anywhere is while the Stochastic and the MACD are negative, the D+ is still holding above the D- which is bullish. Whenever we see the indicators failing to complement each other, then this market is NOT going anywhere .

But I remain as bullish as I last written on the crude as the bullish divergence is still intact. And now the MACD has managed to stay above its zero signal line, I would rather bet on the buy side. But of course that is not saying that I wil buy now, I would rather wait for a breakup with the ADX rising again. USD 56.00 should be a crucial level to keep an eye.


The daily subtle bullishness is well supported by its weekly chart where a bullish divergence is also found between prices' lower low and the MACD's higher troughs.Both the Stochastic and MACD have been positive and continue to rise. The only catch here is the MACD is still far from its zero signal line, so maybe we still have to be patient. The weekly ADX which is located above the D- and D+ is now falling which usually telling us that the prior bearish trend may has ended.

There is one item found in both the daily and weekly chart is the tightening Bollinger Band. Whenever this happens, it is trying to tell us BIG EXPLOSIVE moves are not too far in front. So I get increasing excited over this commodity. It is as if you are watching Ms. Lín Zhì Líng slowing pulling up her skirt in front of you. Yes sir.