The Invincible Blind Man

 

大陆客“凡走过必留下灾难”

 
中国游客到此一游

台湾旅游业因为大批大陆客的涌入而风生水起，但部分中国游客的不文明行径，也让台人大骂陆客“缺德”、“凡走过必留下灾难”！

新北市万里区的野柳地质公园是台湾相当珍贵地貌，女王头更是国际知名，为中国团到台湾必游景点，除了女王头之外，近年来“俏皮公主”亦成了知 名景点。

2009年大陆客赵根大在野柳石壁上刻下“中国常州赵根大”字样，引起台湾媒体群起炮 轰，消息传回中国，赵出面道歉。

跨越警戒拍照落海

台湾《苹果日报》报道，继“中国常州赵根大”事件后，前天又有大陆客不顾劝阻，轮流爬上 易损坏的蕈状岩“俏皮公主”拍照，台游客怒骂：“太扯了！”、“缺德得要死！”没想到大陆客竟装傻，继续爬上坐得稳稳拍他的照。

一名看不下去的女大生，将这些大陆客的恶形恶状全拍录下来，向《苹果》投诉，记者昨天前 往现场发现，许多大陆客仍在蕈状岩爬上爬下拍照。

日前，还有大陆客跨越警戒红线拍照，不幸失足头撞岩石落海死亡。

龙舌兰遭刻字留言

同样的事情也发生在台东的知名景点“水往上流”植物园，园区里的皇冠龙舌兰惨遭中国游客 “毒手”，30株名贵龙舌兰的四五百片叶片上，遭游客以树枝等刻字留言，几无幸免。

园区清洁工指称，不少大陆客把龙舌兰当来台旅游留言板。

《联合报》22日报道，记者现场直击，一群大陆张家界来的游客到植物园区拍照，有人像发现新大陆似喊着：“叶子上有刻字”，其它团员都跟着围 观。

叶片上，有人写“河南省王刚”、“南京小素到此一游”，也有简体字写着“青山白云好风 光”。

台湾人不禁慨叹：真是““凡走过必留下灾难”！

If Japan Is Broke, How Is It Bailing Out Europe?

International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde:  a different view of Japanese government finances.

Not so long ago Japan was being portrayed as the deadbeat of the world financial system. Seems there is still some life — and money — in the island empire.
TOKYO. If you want to understand Japan, try watching what people do rather than listen to what they say. More even than in  other parts of the world there is a difference — and  what people do is, of course, a far more useful insight into their true situation. It is interesting therefore to note that as the International Monetary Fund wound down  its semi-annual meeting in Washington yesterday, the Japanese government emerged as by far the largest single non-eurozone contributor to the latest  euro rescue effort.  Yes, this is the same government that has been going round pretending to be bankrupt (or at least offering no serious rebuttal when benighted American and British commentators portray Japanese public finances as a trainwreck).

Japan is putting up $60 billion. That  is equal to 14 percent of the total of $430 billion in pledges drummed up by the  IMF’s overworked managing director Christine Lagarde.  By comparison the United Kingdom with almost half of Japan’s population is throwing in  a mere $15 billion, or one-quarter as much. And the U.K. actually looks generous by comparison with the United States and Canada, neither of which is prepared to proffer so much as a single brass cent. Besides Japan, the most significant contributors are Saudi Arabia and South Korea.

This is not the first time that Japan has stepped up to the plate as lender of last resort to the world financial system. At the height of the global panic in 2009, the Tokyo Ministry of Finance more or less single-handedly rescued this system when it injected $100 billion into the IMF.

How can a nation whose government is supposedly the most overborrowed in the advanced world afford such generosity? To say the least there seems to be a paradox here — but then paradoxes have always been a dime a dozen in the West’s understanding of the Japanese government.

The betting is that Japan’s true public finances are far stronger than the Western press has been led to believe. What is undeniable is that the Japanese Ministry of Finance is one of the most opaque  in the world — and rarely speaks fully frankly to the Japanese press, let alone the foreign press. Opaqueness is a big help in batting off domestic interest groups pressing for handouts. It also helps  in politely waving away third world nations seeking overseas development aid.

One technique for keeping outsiders at sixes and sevens is that the Japanese budget is announced every year on Christmas Day. That is, of course, the one day of the year when virtually all senior foreign correspondents can be guaranteed to be otherwise engaged.

Let’s be frank: outsiders have little or no ability to delve into Japan’s true government finances. Indeed many commentators who have been particularly outspoken in promoting the story of the Japanese government’s supposed bankruptcy cannot even read the Japanese language.
It is also questionable whether they can read a balance sheet.

Let’s note that a balance sheet has two sides. The Japanese government’s liabilities may be large. But it is important to take a look at its assets before resorting to extravagant denunciations of its financial policy. What is clear is that the Tokyo Finance Ministry is increasingly borrowing from the Japanese public not to finance out-of-control government spending at home but rather abroad. Besides stepping up to the plate to keep the IMF in business, Tokyo has long been the lender of last resort to  both the U.S.  and British governments. Meanwhile it borrows 10-year money at an interest rate of just 1.0 percent, the second lowest rate of any borrower in the world after the government of Switzerland.

Few Anglophone economic commentators are able to read the Japanese government’s accounts in the original. But the yields on JGBs, as Japanese government bonds are known to the cognoscenti,  are printed daily in the Western press. It is time the commentators took note.

陳光誠出逃陰謀論

昨天內地傳來消息，指被中共拘禁在家中的盲人維權律師陳光誠，得到其他維權人士協助下成功 逃走，更有說他正身在北京美帝使館中，甚至有說他正離開偉大祖國途中；而陳光誠也發放短片，證實自己已逃到安全地方，更向國務院總理 溫家寶提出3項要求，包括嚴懲非法拘禁他的人員、維護他的家人安全、以及嚴懲腐敗。

陳光誠能夠在中共嚴密監視下逃走，令人感到欣喜， 事實上他已成為中、外知名及廣受關注的維權人士，除了內地網民、維權人士不時會到拘 禁陳的山東省臨沂市東師古村「探望」他外，早前美國影星，扮演蝙蝠俠的基斯頓比爾（Christian Bale），更與美國有線電視新聞網絡（CNN）記者到東師古村「探望」，結果遭偉大祖國中共便衣安保阻攔，數十名穿軍服的守衛對着他攝影機及基斯頓比爾 揮拳，成為了國際大新聞，也令中共出醜於國際社會。

網上對陳光誠成功逃走，有不同說法。有人懷疑是中共特意放走他， 全因他是繼劉曉波 ，另一偉大祖國維權代表人物，按中共一貫做法，情願放逐他們離開偉大祖國，永遠流落異鄉，也不想他們留在國內，以免麻煩。

不過A認為陳光誠未必會走，他似乎是想借此恢復應有人身自由、 要中共面對、回應他被非法拘禁、暴力對待的指控，再簡單一點說，只要陳 一段時間內，留在一個「有外國人保護」的地方，不斷發言逼中共回應指控，中共將會十分尷尬，因中共既不可以用強，逼美帝等外國人交出 陳光誠，而陳身在偉大祖國，三、兩天向溫總理，胡主席喊一次話，中共總不能當作沒事發生，就算可以河蟹偉大祖國傳媒及互聯網，難道可 以河蟹那些外國記者？

C 說，中共仍未妥善處理好薄熙來事件， 現在又弄出一件陳光誠逃走事件。C 陰謀論分析，難道，那是江系向胡、溫的還擊，刻意放走陳光誠，看胡、溫如何處理這炸彈？

恐怕，未來幾天，陳光誠事件會再有發展，甚至， 有可能為中共內部另一次派系角力導火線。

A Famed ‘72 Marvin Gaye Concert That Almost Did Not Happen

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NSO Pops revisits famed ‘72 Marvin Gaye concert

MATTHEW LEWIS/TWP/ The Washington Post ) - Marvin Gaye at the Kennedy Center on ‘Marvin Gaye Day.’

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It’s hailed now as an historic concert event — one that gets a big sold-out two-day 40th anniversary re-creation this week at the Kennedy Center with John Legend, the National Symphony Orchestra Pops and Sharon Jones and the Dap-Kings.

But Marvin Gaye’s original “What’s Going On” homecoming performance at the then-new Kennedy Center on May 1, 1972, almost didn’t happen.

(Ellsworth Davis) - Marvin Gaye (center) with his parents, Rev. and Mrs. Marvin Gaye, Sr. on 'Marvin Gaye Day' on May 1, 1972 in front of the District Building.

“I didn’t really want to do this concert,” Gaye told The Washington Post at the time. To his biographer, David Ritz, he was more emphatic: “I resented the whole thing, and I desperately didn’t want to do it. Until the last few minutes, I wasn’t going to go.”

In fact, he hadn’t been on a stage in nearly four years, since the tragic night when his duet partner Tammi Terrell collapsed in his arms during a performance at Hampden-Sydney College in Virginia in 1967. She died of a malignant brain tumor three years later at the age of 24.
Gaye also had a complicated relationship with the District, where he was born and raised. It began in the troubled relations with his own family. He was raised by a strict father, a failed preacher in an unusual sect who beat him as a child, and a mother who held back her protection.
And there was the city itself.
“I was still mad at Washington,” Gaye told Ritz. “What had they ever given me? Why would they all of a sudden love me now that I’d sold a few records? Where were they when I needed them? For years I’d considered Detroit — not Washington — home.”
The future Motown star honed his singing in the hallways of Randall Junior High School and Cardozo High, formed doo-wop groups like the DC Tones and the Marquees before joining Harvey Fuqua and the Moonglows and moving to the Midwest.
He returned to the District a couple of times as a Motown artist — initially at the bottom of the bill in the first Motortown Revue in 1962 at the Howard Theatre, where he had seen so many inspiring performances in the past; but had visited his friends and family less and less. As if to distance himself more from his family (and to emulate Sam Cooke), he changed his name from Gay to Gaye shortly before his first single was released in May 1961.
Childhood friend Dewey Hughes, later a D.C. broadcaster, helped arrange a homecoming Marvin Gaye Day event as a fundraiser for Pride Inc., an organization co-founded by Marion Barry to provide job training and jobs to unemployed African American youth in the city. For the Washington show, Gaye told The Post, “my mother kept calling and asking me if I’d do it for her. Mothers are like that.”
The concert was arranged and a full day of celebration preceded it, including a speech at Cardozo High (“I’m sure I was a little stoned,” he admitted to Ritz later), a motorcade procession, a key to the city from Mayor Walter Washington, another reception at the Rayburn Building and a kiss from Miss Black D.C.
All the ceremonial activity may have cut into rehearsal time for the main event, though.
After opening acts, testimonials and an introduction from then-city school board president Marion Barry, Gaye didn’t get onstage until after 11 p.m.

But it didn’t work out that way. Gaye was “tired, scared — and stoned,” according to Harry Weinger, who produced the 2001 deluxe edition of “What’s Going On” that included the full Kennedy Center performance on CD for the first time.

After a 13-minute medley of his ’60s hits, Gaye skipped straight to the second half of the album first, following it with the first side. It was because of nervousness, Weinger said.

Personal Post

(Ellsworth Davis) - Marvin Gaye (center) with his parents, Rev. and Mrs. Marvin Gaye, Sr. on 'Marvin Gaye Day' on May 1, 1972 in front of the District Building.

And while one song flowed to the next with a rhythm and purpose in a suitelike manner, the show also had the occasional feel of rehearsal as when, two minutes into “Inner City Blues (Make Me Wanna Holler),” he made the band stop and start it again.

“I got to have to have it grooving, ” Gaye explained to the audience, apologizing for his band. “See, when I leave the piano, they kind of lose it.”

The crowd, who didn’t seem to mind hearing it again — or even a third time, when in an extraordinary conclusion to the show, he chose to do two songs over again “because I’m not satisfied in my heart.”

“I’d like to do just a little bit more of ‘Inner City Blues’ before we leave, and after that we’re going to do ‘What’s Going On,’ and we’re going to call it a night. Thank you.”

In the third and final version of “Inner City Blues,” he made sure to recognize his parents and family in the audience, “who I love very much.”

It would be his fourth time that day playing “What’s Going On,” the song that encapsulated the era’s frustrations, from Vietnam to protests, in a manner that made it timeless. “War is not the answer,” he sang. “Only love can conquer hate.”

Because the issues of 40 years ago — war, poverty, concern about the environment, still ring true today, the Kennedy Center spent months devising a curriculum around the 40th-anniversary concerts.

“As far as a piece of music, I think it holds up very well,” says Steven Reineke, the principal Pops conductor of the National Symphony Orchestra, who will be conducting the concerts this week. “It really is a song cycle much in the vein of Schumann, Beethoven or Schubert. It’s fascinating to have had a guy in the late ’60s and early ’70s writing something like that.”

The Kennedy Center’s first digital youth arts and media campaign, What’s Going On . . . Now (www.whatsgoingonnow.org),has drawn videos and contributions from hundreds of students nationwide, inspired by Gaye’s landmark work. A youth summit this week coinciding with the concerts will bring dozens of students and faculty to the Kennedy Center this week; free performances and screenings of their work will be presented Wednesday and Thursday on its Millennium Stage.

It all points to a new generation inspired by Gaye’s timeless words, says Darrell Ayers, the Kennedy Center’s vide president for education.

“I was surprised how relevant the issues from the album were and the lyrics that Gaye wrote,” Ayers says. “An artist could have written those today.”

For all its prescience, though, it was all Gaye could do in 1972 to perform the workonstage.

“I got through it,” Gaye told his biographer . “But I was a wreck. I hardly remember what happened. I must have blocked it out.”

Indeed, it took a while for him to fully realize what Marvin Gaye Day in Washington had meant to him.

“I understood that I’d been punishing myself by staying away so long,” Gaye said. “I’d been denying self-love, and that’s one of the most foolish things a man can do.”

More than what the day meant for him, he said he recognized “it was certainly the biggest day of my parents’ life. There they came to Washington in the ’30s without a penny and their son was being honored by the mayor as some sort of hero.”

Still, it wasn’t enough to reconcile their familial division — less than 12 years later, on the eve of his 45th birthday, Gaye was shot dead by his elderly father in Los Angeles, ending his life and career but not the music or its enduring influence.

Marvin Gaye’s homecoming concert set list

Here are the songs from the original concert performed May 1, 1972, at the Kennedy Center. (The set list for the 40th-anniversary commemorative concert there this week will be different.)

“That’s the Way Love Is”

“You”

“I Heard It Through the Grapevine”

“Little Darling (I Need You)”

“You’re All I Need to Get By”

“Ain’t Nothing Like the Real Thing”

“Your Precious Love”

“Pride and Joy”

“Stubborn Kind of Fellow”

“Right On”

“Wholy Holy”

“Inner City Blues (Make Me Wanna Holler)”

“What’s Going On”

“What’s Happening Brother”

“Flyin’ High (in the Friendly Sky)”

“Save the Children”

“God Is Love”

“Inner City Blues (Make Me Wanna Holler)” reprise

“What’s Going On” reprise

NSO Pops: Marvin Gaye’s “What’s Going On”

with John Legend and Sharon Jones and the Dap-Kings. Kennedy Center, Thursday and Friday, 8 p.m. Sold out.

What’s Going On . . . Now Youth Showcase will present live and digital performances. Kennedy Center Millennium Stage Wednesday and Thursday, 6 p.m. Free.

中國 最安全的地方

中國 最安全的地方不在中南海而在美國領事館

陳光誠逃離中共拘禁兩天，胡佳、蒲志強等維權人士相信，陳已逃到北京的美國領事館內，維權律師蒲志強接受有線電視訪問時更指出，在目前情況 下，只有美國政府才有能力保護陳光誠：

「我覺得美國確實是和平飯店，是周潤發電影的那個和平飯店，任何人到那個地方也是安全 的，美國有她的這種胸懷和能力，去保護需要幫助的人，保護受難者，這是美國縱合國力的體現。」

A說浦志強所言，又非只代表偉大祖國維權人士一廂情願的想法，只要看黃 立軍這手執重慶公安大權的中共高幹，
要逃亡嗎？也是跑進美帝領事館內，傳媒早已報道，若非黃自願離開領事館， 美帝是不會將他交給中共國安人員，可見上至中共高幹、下至維權人士，早已知道，偉大祖國內最安全的地方，不是胡主席辦公的中南海，而是美帝領 事館，

要保 命，找美帝好過找主席！

這，又豈不對那些日夜歌誦偉大祖國如何強大的愛國人士，作出最徹底的諷刺！

A說，那些愛國人士倒較你我更清楚美帝較偉大祖國更可靠，單是某挺梁候任特首、整天罵泛民反中亂港的大商家，他，就是手持美帝護照！越了解中 共、越所謂愛國，越死找外國護照不放，拿不到美帝、英帝的、拿一本楓葉國或袋鼠國的也好呀！

即是，B說，美帝若要「促進」偉大祖國民主化，應考慮在全中國各省市自治區設立領事館，方 便祖國官民幹部太子黨出了甚麼狀況，可以到就近的美帝領事館尋求庇護，或許，這更能「鼓勵」 偉大祖國和平演變！

Hugh Hendry Thinks China Will Do A Weimar Depression

HUGH HENDRY IS BACK: Here's What's In His Monster New Letter To Shareholders


Hedge fund manager Hugh Hendry of The Eclectica Fund is finally back with a monster new letter to shareholders. In it, he says, is his most lengthy writing since the winter of 2010.

We've read it, and summarized his key points into bullets.

    Hendry is still very bearish on China. He doesn't think that China will be supplanting the US economy as the world's #1 in GDP anytime soon, and in fact he's fairly bullish on the US thanks to the burgeoning energy business.

    The problem in China is that its success was long based on the artificial depression of the currency, and financial repression that prevented banks from offering decent interest rates to savers. Anyone with their money in a bank got crushed, so to get around this financial repression the people bought houses like crazy.

    The scale of the Chinese housing bubble has been unprecedented, and the scale of underground credit is enormous. There are trillions of dollars of loans that originate through firms that are nominally in businesses like shipbuilding, but which ended up in the mortgage credit game.

    China is so freaked out by all this, it's given death sentences to some of the underground players in the real estate bubble.

    Hendry sees a Weimar-like situation where Chinese leaders thought they could get away with fiscal profligacy on the back of strong exports, but the weakness abroad means it might not happen.

    The Chinese market is a casino, pure and simple. It only benefits insiders. There's no reason for anyone to invest in it.

    The way Hendry has shorted it, however, is via Credit Default Swaps on Japanese corporates that are exposed to China. Japanese companies remain very troubles with debt loads that are way too high. This is why Japan is a value trap that has taken in suckers for years, thinking that stocks are very cheap.

    In Japan he sees, what he calls "The Tranquility That Could Rock the World."

    Ultimately, he thinks we'll see one more washout in the market, with 30-year Treasury yields hitting 2.5% (they're currently at 3.125%) and the VIX surging to 80, at which point we'll have a truly 'generational' opportunity to buy risk assets.

All in all, great stuff.

伯肯诺纳粹集中营死尸翻转狂笑 !

温总访集中营　称 护自由尊严

（华沙28日讯）正在波兰访问的中国总理温家宝称，歷史告诫人们，要反对战爭、恐怖、种族灭绝和一切罪恶，「维护人的自由、尊严、安全和幸福」。

中国失明维权律师陈光诚成功摆脱监视、逃离山东。他目前在安全处落脚。他週五在影片中向温家宝提出三点要求，希望温家宝「亲自过问这件事，指 派调查组展开调查，还原事实真相。」

新华社报导，温家宝是在访问波兰奥斯威辛—伯肯诺纳粹集中营时，发表上述谈话。

反省才能得到尊重

台湾中央社报导指，外界无从得知温家宝是否注意到陈光诚向他提出的三点要求；但他这番说法，巧合的时机与谈话內容让舆论更加关注。

温家宝表示，奥斯威辛的不幸是全人类的不幸。它告诫人们，只有记住歷史，才能建设美好的未来，「要反对战爭、恐怖、种族灭绝和一切罪恶，维护 人的自由、尊严、安全和幸福」。

他称，那些曾发动战爭、对別国和人类造成灾难的国家必须正视歷史，以史为鉴，「只 有自我反省才能得到国际社会的尊重。」

另外，温家宝在纪念馆留言簿上写道：不懂得歷史就没有美好的未来。

 

鐵達尼號逃出生天的華人

    鐵達尼號海難一百周年，除電影以三D重映外，多個相關地域都有紀念活動。其中一件被人再次提出的醜事是：災難發生，船上共有八名男 華人，其中六人逃出生天，以全船的生死比率來說很幸運。但 能夠如此幸運，是因為其中五人乘亂登上只載婦孺的救生艇，用這種極不光彩的方式保命。當時有維持秩序的人想開槍射擊，但擔心誤中婦孺而作罷。我讀過一些西人談鐵達尼乘客逃生的文字，他們全都認為這是卑鄙的懦夫所為。

    《紐約時報》有文章分析說：中國人重男輕女，所以他們認為有災難時，應 該讓男人保住性命。

 

     然而我想，西人之讓婦孺先上救生艇，不是因為他們重女輕男，而是他們認為婦孺是弱者，男人是強者，強者應保護弱者，為弱者犧牲，這也是所謂騎士精神和風 度。其中可以說同樣沒有平等觀念，而是我強你弱。但一旦自認是強者，就要有強者的付出。在性別方面如此，在階級方面也一樣：我是高高在上，享盡福 樂的貴族，這也是不平等的。但外敵來侵犯時，我就必須披掛上陣，衝鋒在前。

 

    中國人的想法剛好相反。災難來時，性別上應該汰弱留強，沒有理由讓強者殉難，留下 弱者。從階級方面來說，外敵來犯，要由下面的人去抵禦，上面的人 繼續享福。不然大家為什麼要搶著去當皇帝？

    幸而電影中沒有華人逃生的情節，如果有，肯定有無數「愛國賊」 跳出來大罵「辱華」、傷害中國人民的感情了。

 

在中国强大军力的笼罩下，谁还敢对中方说不呢！

乌云密佈的南中国海

南 海是东南亚各国与中国之间难分难解之题，这个海域曾被认为是继朝鲜半岛、台海之后的另一个热点，每隔一段时间就会有衝突发生。常 成为事件主角的通常是越南 与菲律宾。这是有其地理及手段的考量。曾有中国专栏作者建议，为了有效 解决南海问题，北京应该「各个击破，区別对待」。其做法是「打越南；威慑菲律宾；警 告马来西亚；与印尼和汶莱谈判」， 以瓦解南沙集团。

在中国共產党的斗爭史中，任何与其利益所背离的个人、国家或组织都会被冠上「集团」之 名。今天，当他们面对南海诸国为维护自身海权，而跟北京利益有所衝突时，中共就以「南海集团」来统称这些「国家敌人」。並且认为 包括大马在內的「弹丸小 国」之所以胆敢挑衅中国，是因为美日澳印（度）在幕后的怂恿所致。但，南海不该是军事问题，也不是外交或是政治问题，它是彻彻底 底的经济利益问题。

1969 年5月至8月，就有海洋地质学家发表研究报告，认为南海蕴藏著280亿桶石油，被称为「第二个波斯湾」，成为世界四大储油区之 一。中国甚至评估可能高达 2000亿桶，之所以数字落差这么大，是因为中国一直以来都在驱赶各国探勘船在南海作业。目前约有千余口钻油台每年共生產数千万 吨油、气產品。隨著日渐高 涨的原油价格，如能在邻近海域获得油源的话，將能保障北京石油来源及藉由本身所生產的石化產品，减低对国外產品的依赖。日前中国 已经在渤海发现新油田，可 以日產1900桶，不无小补。

利益才是衝突的主因

同时，近年来全球各地渔获量减少，而中国沿海地区餐厅所需的高价位鱼料理，更是面对「有客无货」的窘境。为获得满足市 场消费所需的渔获，中国渔民离开传统渔场，前往距离较远的南海来捕鱼。在这种利益交错下，发生衝突势所难免。

就 中国而言，虽然是以「和谐海洋」作为其发展海军的新理念，可是面对利益不保时，不排除南海会发生局部性战爭的可能性，一旦达到其 海权利益，自然就会恢復其 「和平」路线。这也是为何南海各国不反对美国在本区域的存在，由於让第三国的出现，才能维持南海不会在单一强权的主导下发展。

香港亲北京刊物《镜报》报导，中国第一艘航空母舰將在2012年10月前后服役，届时將部署在南海北端的海南岛三亚基 地，这是隶属南海舰队的军港。这个动作將震慑整个东南亚，因为这一来本区域的军事平衡將发生严重倾斜。试问在中国强大军力的笼罩下，谁还敢对中方说不呢！

2011 年5月，越南与中国就南海（越南称东海）宣示越南拥有南海西沙群岛及南沙群岛主权，香港左派报纸《文匯报》在越南连续举行三个週 末的反中抗议示威后，於该 年6月18日的社论指出，「中国须做好军事准备，若『有关国家』一意孤行，採取过分挑衅行动，『必將遭到有力的回击』」。一时之 间，南中国海局势显得剑拔 弩张，双方不惜一战的態势。但这个局势很快就因中越年度北部湾联合巡逻行动而暂时化解。

伺机而动的南海舰队

事 隔不到一年，刚获得海上武力提升的菲律宾海军，就在2012年4月10日，在中沙群岛的黄巖岛（Scarborough Shoal，曾为美国海军航空部队的空炸靶场）与中国派来支援在当地越界捕鱼的中国海监船对峙，为沉寂一段时间的南海再添风云。近日，双方不但没有因中国 渔民离开而解散，有消息指出解放军还派出094型（或称晋级）核动力潜舰到现场，甚至在4月18日增派最新型的310渔政船加入 「战局」。
然而，现在似乎很少人记得，北京曾经在1999年誓言签署 1995年「东南亚非核武区协定」（SEANWFTZ）议定书，以遵守「不在东南亚非核武区內使用或威胁使用核武」的规 定。094型就是一种携带核弹头弹道飞弹的潜舰，北京也不希望各界记得这件往事吧。
这 次不光武嚇，北京也不忘文攻。代表军方的《解放军报》近日反击，暗指美国在背后兴风作浪，外交部官员甚至警告南海诸国不要玩火， 一改以往忍让作风。凑巧的 是，4月下旬也是美国与菲律宾的「肩並肩2012」（Balikatan 2012）联合演习，一向强硬作风的解放军学者罗援也通过媒体放话，「若再遭挑衅，中国海军会重拳出击」。然而他话锋一转却也表示，「升级海巡船吨位以及 建立海上警备队保障中国海洋权益已经是当务之急」。换句话说，中国还要再增添更多的装备及人员並且部署到南海来值勤。

瞭解军事参谋作业的人 士都知道，演习不是在几天之內就能安排好的。4月20日刊登在《解放军报》的一篇评论「美菲军演意欲何为」则认为：「美菲两国借 军演搭台唱武戏，意在彼此 借重、相互拉拢，进一步搅动南海局势」。而在几乎同一时间，中国跟俄罗斯也在朝鲜半岛周边的黄海举行代號「海上联合2012」演 习，中方宣称演习是在 2011年8月解放军参谋总长陈炳德出访时就开始洽谈的事情，可是就凭什么说他们 的演习就不是「彼此借重、相互拉拢」呢？这种厚此薄彼的行事作风怎么能让 人信服呢！

1980年代中国除越南外，对其他宣称在南海有主权的国家的態度均相当温和，原因是军事上尚未拥有嚇阻能力，也需要和 邻国保持友 好的外交、经济关係。当时在其外交部安抚的语言背后，北京对南中国海的企图心。尤其是冷战结束、美军於1994年撤出苏比克湾后 更是有增无减。解放军海军 在过去10年已经有非常高度的现代化，尤其南海舰队更是三大舰队中唯一拥有海军陆战队编制的，其主要目的就是为了防制南海情势发 生变化时，隨时准备执行两 棲作战，以武逼和。就算是摆摆姿態，任何有意以武力反制的国家都要三思，尤其解放军近年来除航空母舰以外，还计画发展类似美军 「胡蜂」级（Wasp Class）的081型两棲突击舰。这种硬体建设使得中国对登陆作战的实施將会是轻而易举的行动。

看待南海问题不该有民族情感，反之该以国家利益为重。

Will The Three Gorges Dam Becomes China's Curse ?

AP

When the construction of China's Three Gorges Dam was completed in 2006, most Chinese citizens must have hoped it was worth it the huge cost: 1.4 million people had to be relocated from towns, cities, and villages to make way for the enormous structure, which would supplement a hungry China's growing energy needs. But their prayers have not been answered.
Six years later, the government says a further 100,000 people may be displaced over the next few years, including 20,000 this year alone, because of increasing landslide risks in the area around the dam, Reuters reports.

The Three Gorges Project is located at Sāndòupíng in the Xilingxia gorge, one of the three gorges on the Yangtze river.

It's one of the biggest hydropower complexes in the world.

Wikimedia Commons/Le Grand Portage/Rehman

The 600-foot high, 1.4 mile-long dam with 386 gates holds a reservoir that's about 400 miles long, and the power generating complex contains 26 turbines.

While official estimates put the cost of production at $23 billion, international experts believe it cost more than double that.

The project took more than a decade to complete.

Getty Images/China Photos

It was originally suggested in 1918 by Sun Yat-Sen, but the scheme officially started in 1994 and finished in 2008. 

It serves a purpose, however — The dam generates more than 18,000 MW of power a year.

That's more than eight times the capacity of the U.S.'s Hoover Dam and about three percent of China's energy needs.

Additionally, it's intended to stop the frequent flooding in the region.

The project also increased the amount of cargo transported across the river to 50 million tons, triple the maximum annual amount prior to the dam's construction.

But the system has had some major problems from the very get go.

About 1.4 million people were displaced when construction began, and 13 cities, 140 towns and 1,350 villages were submerged when the reservoir reached its full capacity of 40 billion cubic meters (1,412.6 billion cubic feet).  (Source: The New York Times)

A further 100,000 will be moved over the next three to five years because of landslides and bank collapses.

The number of landslides and other natural disasters has increased by 70 percent since the reservoir filled up in 2010.

Getty Images/China Photos

The enormous weight of the water in the reservoir, coupled with the rise and fall in its levels depending on the season, has made the banks unstable, according to the BBC.

Some say it played a role in the devastating 2008 Sichuan earthquake, which killed 87,000 people, though the government denies this.

1,300 archaeological sites have also been submerged.

Getty Images/China Photos

Among those threatened are the irreplaceable remnants of the homeland of the Ba, an ancient people who settled in the region about 4,000 years ago, according to CNN.

The dam may have exacerbated China's 2011 drought.

Flickr/Euclid vanderKroew

While there is no concrete evidence, critics say the dam altered regional water tables, which led to residents downstream of Three Gorges losing access to drinking water in the drought from January-April 2011, according to The New York Times. China's Xinhua news agency put the number of those affected at 10 million. It was widely considered the worst drought in 50 years. (Source: Nature)

The drought negated most of the dam's plus points: ships were stranded and central and eastern China faced a power shortage.

Environmentalists say the reservoir is accumulating silt and waste from cities and industries.

Getty Images/China Photos

Over 265 billion gallons of raw sewage are dumped into the Yangtze annually, which now collects in the reservoir instead of being flushed downstream and out into the ocean. However, the government insists the new sewage treatment plants have this under control, according to NPR. 

The government finally acknowledged the problems in 2011, five years after Three Gorges was built.

The Chinese State Council said it knew about some of the problems even before construction began 17 years ago, while some other issues have arisen since because of "new demands as the social and economical situation developed".  But despite this late admission, the plan was always contentious. A third of Chinese MPs voted against the plan or abstained.

But China still wants to build more dams.

Getty Images/China Photos

There are plans to build a series of dams on a section of the upper Yangtze which, combined, will have a capacity more than twice that of the Three Gorges Dam. But not only is this region seismically active, the project could deprive Three Gorges of water, according to the AP. Other plans include possibly building dams along the Nu River and the upper Mekong, which would be fatal to the area's fragile ecosystems and endangered species, Foreign Policy reports.

Motown Week magic on Dancing With The Stars 2012

Photo: ABC

SAN DIEGO, April 22, 2012 –  Motown greats Smokey Robinson, the Temptations, and Martha Reeves filled the ballroom with marvelous music and the competitors let it inspire several first-rate performances on week 6 of “Dancing With The Stars.”
We still haven’t seen any perfect scores of 30 thanks to stingy scoring judge Len Goodman, but two couples came within a point and two others were right on their heels. At this stage of the competition, everyone should be hitting good performances every week, and this week they did.
In addition to the individual dances, couples had the chance to capture between three and 10 bonus points competing in the “Motown Marathon,” a side-by-side cha cha competition. Judges eliminated couples one by one until a winner was left.
Motown’s own Empress of Soul, Gladys Knight, hit the dance floor to open the show. With her sleek bob hairdo she looked decades younger and no one has more fun in the ballroom than she does. But she had some rough spots in her rumba, scoring 21. She was also eliminated first in the marathon, for the low score of the night at 24. She’ll need a lot of fan votes to avoid the dance duel and a trip home.

Gladys Knight will need help from the fans if she's going to make it through to next week's show. Photo: ABC

Just ahead of Gladys Knight on the scoreboard are two surprising names, Roshon Fegan and Maria Menounos. Fegan’s rumba wowed the ballroom audience but the judges criticized the sharp edges. He could only manage five points from the marathon, for a total of 28 points. Maria’s foxtrot was marred by missteps and then she and partner Derek Hough were eliminated early in the marathon, for a total score of 30.
Melissa Gilbert and Maks Chmerkovskiy are tied with Maria and Derek Hough at 30 but this represents a good week for Gilbert. She danced a lovely Viennese waltz and seemed at home in her skin for the first time. Melissa and Maks’ fans are aggressive about getting out the vote. We’ll see if it saves them from the dance duel.
There is a gap between the bottom four and the top four dancers, none of which need to worry one bit about being in the dance duel or going home Tuesday.

Donald Driver is improving every week, with a sharp foxtrot sure to take him through to next week's show. Photo: ABC

Donald Driver and Peta Murgatroyd’s foxtrot was as bright and exuberant as their bright blue costumes. Driver has charm to spare and the sharp moves and control of the athlete. He’s getting better every week and he really wants that perfect 10. Three nines this week had to do, plus a seven in the marathon, for a score of 34.
William Levy and Cheryl Burke had a mixed week. Bruno Tonioli and Carrie Ann Inaba enjoyed Levy’s steamy rumba, but Len Goodman found it too raunchy. His score of 27 got help from a second place finish in the marathon for 36 points.
Jaleel White and Kym Johnson had the comeback of the season, surviving last week’s dance duel to score 29 points. Why Len Goodman couldn’t cough up a third 10 is a mystery. If White continues to dance this well, he could make the finals. But he doesn’t seem to be getting fan votes, so he has to keep up the quality performances. He added eight points in the marathon with energetic moves and lifts, for a score of 37.

Jaleel White won last week's dance duel, then made a huge turnaround, tying for first with his individual dance and placing second overall this week. Photo: ABC

Once again Katherine Jenkins and Mark Ballas ended up at the top of the leader board.  Jenkins followed up her superb Argentine tango last week with a saucy samba, full of energy she brought right back out for the dance marathon. Jenkins’ musicality and work ethic from years as a classical singer give her a leg up, literally. She just missed a perfect score of 30, due to a nine from Len Goodman, but she added ten points for first place in the marathon, for 39 points.
Smokey Robinson treats fans to several of his greatest hits. The ageless singer was in good voice. The Tempations also knocked out hit after hit, and Martha Reeves rounded out the trio of Motown greats. Motown founder Berry Gordy Jr. was on hand in the ballroom audience.
So who will be sent home? We’ll bring you the results straight from Hollywood. I will be sitting in the ballroom as a member of the audience Tuesday night and promise to share all the behind the scenes secrets.
Watch the results Tuesday, April 24 at 9 p.m. Eastern/Pacific on “Dancing With the Stars” on the ABC Television Network, then read about them here on Communities at Washington Times.

The Fall of China's Kennedy Family 

REPORT: Bo Xilai's Family Is Worth Hundreds Of Millions And His Son Worked At A Top Investment Bank

The investigation into Chinese politician Bo Xilai and his connection to Briton Neil Heywood's death has shone a global spotlight on Bo's extended family and their wealth.

Bloomberg is out with a huge investigative piece on what this high-level politician/communist party member is worth.

The latest revelations include the news that one of Bo's sons attended Columbia University and was employed at a top American financial firm; in addition to the fact that Bo's family had an accumulated wealth of over $136 million in a country where politicians are paid modestly, according to Bloomberg.

An American lawyer that has worked with investment firms in China told the New York Times last week that the Bo family were like the "Kennedys of China."

In addition, two sisters of Bo's wife, Gu Kailai, has at least $126 million in real estate investments, Bloomberg reported. Gu Kailai has been arrested in China on suspicion of Heywood's death.

Bo's eldest son Li Wangzhi—from his first marriage—was employed at Citigroup's Hong Kong office from 2005 to 2006, according to Bloomberg, which cited two of Li Wangzhi's acquaintances, a Chinese website that lists the affiliation, and a Hong Kong’s Securities and Futures Commission registration.

A former classmate of Li Wangzhi told Bloomberg that Li did not seem to like his father, but that Bo's name certainly opened lots of doors for him.

Li Wangzhi's affiliations with high finance doesn't end with Citigroup. According to Bloomberg, Li Wangzhi also worked in private equity in Dalian, China—the city that his father was mayor of from 1993 to 2000—after graduating from Columbia in 2003. Li  is currently linked to at least two other investment firms in China, including one where he holds a managing director position.

Li Wangzhi has also used the names Brendan Li and Li Xiaobai in his business ventures, Bloomberg reported.

Read the full Bloomberg report here >

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-22/bo-xilai-clan-links-included-citigroup-hiring-of-his-elder-son.html

Everything You Need To Know About Investing In Gold

KCPO - Are The Bulls Taking A Nap Before Charging Again ?-4/23/2012





 
The market hardly move down much last week and I notice that the band begins to tighten, so I would tighten my stop to 3513. I would add if price goes below 3455.


 

The weekly chart price maintains above the top band with a positive MACD that is been solidly supported by the rising ADX. With these, I would remain bullish about the market. The question to be asked about this market would be:- when will the bulls resume the run or will the market take a breather and stay sideway ? Looking at the falling daily ADX, I would think that it should be stay sideway for a while before the bulls return.

FKLI - Will Something BIG Happening Soon ?- 4/23/2012

As noted the past few weeks, this market is still whipping around and flashing many false signals but going nowhere. The ADX has again begun to fall again which is conforming this total lack of directions. Though I have been mentioning that I am reluctant to enter new trade, but in order to stick to the trading plan, I had engaged new long on last Tuesday only to see the trade collapsed the next day when price closed below the top band. And I went to engage on new short trade on last Friday when I get a negative Stochastic complimenting the prices below the top and middle band. Will this trade work out ? I am not sure as the ADX is do discouraging. So I will use the prior day high plus 1 as stop.

Despite all that, we may have to start to pay closer attention from now onwards. I take note that both the Stochastic and MACD are negative while we may see a DMI negative crossdown by the coming week. We would need to pay attention to the market's next line of defense at the lower Bollinger Band of 1585. Another vital line of support will be at 1580. If prices fail to hold above these levels, we may see the beginning of the end for this bull market. And since the Bollinger Band has been squeezing, I would say the end would be of those shocking type.




At the weekly chart, the most significant sign would be its the Japanese Candlestick of a shooting star. This usually signify that the prior bull cycle is at its end. Whatever follow in the coming week is very important. Please take note now price has closed below the top band which may be taken as an initial sell signal by itself. The Stochastic is negative and falling. I would pay attention to the Stochastic when if it crosses down its 80's level as another initial sell signal. The MACD is  still  positive but is turning around its top, so watch out for a negative crossover on this one too. ADX has stayed flat for the 6th. week at 16's, so trade with the Stochastic rather than the MACD.

With the presence of the bearish divergence at the daily chart and the MACD falling downward and getting nearer to its zero signal line, my current mental setup has been waiting for a big massive sell down. So if you are still holding those big caps, GLCs and "blue chips", may be it is time for you to review your portfolio and start unloading some regardless how the "experts" are still telling you otherwise.

The Good News About Warren Buffett's Stage 1 Prostate Cancer Diagnosis

Berkshire Hathaway's CEO Warren Buffett announced today that he had been diagnosed with stage 1 prostate cancer.

Buffett, 81, was upbeat about his diagnosis in his letter to shareholders saying it isn't even "remotely life threatening."

Here's why the "Oracle of Omaha" should be so optimistic.

According to the American Cancer Society, the relative five-year survival rate for men with stage 1 prostate cancer is nearly 100%.

From ACS:

According to the most recent data, when including all men with prostate cancer:

    The relative 5-year survival rate is nearly 100%
    The relative 10-year survival rate is 98%
    The 15-year relative survival rate is 91%

Keep in mind that 5-year survival rates are based on patients diagnosed and first treated more than 5 years ago, and 10-year survival rates are based on patients diagnosed more than 10 years ago. Modern methods of detection and treatment mean that many prostate cancers are now found earlier and can be treated more effectively. If you are diagnosed this year, your outlook may be better than the numbers reported above.

联合国研究朝鲜阅兵式装备图片

 

联合国官员正在研究上周末朝鲜阅兵式上亮相的军事 装备的图片。此前，有人举报称，其中一种新型导弹发射车采用了大量中国技术，这可能意味着中国 违反了国际社会对朝鲜的制裁。

联合国安理会制裁委员会负责监督2006年和2009年通过的联合国决议的遵守情况。为该委员会提供咨询的一个专家小组正在研究朝鲜一款新 式大型导弹的运输车的图片。这些图片是由军事分析机构简氏防务(IHS Jane's)转交给该专家小组的。
英国《金融时报》看到的一封电子邮件显示，接近制裁委员会的一名联合国高官表明，他有意将此事移交专家小组。这个行事隐秘的小组很少公开其 分析结果，而且根据去年泄露的一份报告，该小组迄今仅调查过两个类似案例。韩国官员据悉也在研究这些图片。
以往的阅兵式和情报曾揭示，伊朗参与了朝鲜的大型武器计划，但没有迹象显示中国参与。中国坚称其严格遵守制裁制度。中国还在朝鲜、美国、日 本、韩国以及欧盟之间的外交对话中，扮演着不可或缺的角色。
位 于华盛顿的彼得森国际经济研究所 (Petersen Institute for International Economics)副所长、朝鲜问题专家马库斯•诺兰(Marcus Noland)表示，如果北京方面被发现向朝鲜转移军事装备或技术专长、违反其宣称支持的联合国决议，那么中国将失去“诚实中间人”的招牌。
“这是一桩大事，它真的能改变格局。如果中国被认为违反安理会制裁，帮助朝鲜军事化，那将改 变中国的形象，改变中国与韩国、日本和美国的外交关系，”他表示。
“这件事也将使美国总统竞选更趋激烈，（共和党候选人）米特•罗姆尼(Mitt Romney)会指责巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)对中国太软弱。”
各方密切关注的朝鲜导弹运输车是一种运输-架设-发射车(TEL)，能够运输一枚导弹，使其进入发射位置，然后直接发射。一些（尽管不是全 部）分析 人士相信，其主要改良是基于中国航天科工集团公司第九研究院(Ninth Academy of the China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation)的一种设计，这个单位亦称为万山特种车辆有限公司，生产各型用于部署中短程弹道导弹的TEL车辆。
若得到证实，中国的参与将违反联合国安理会第1874号决议。
不过，联合国的专家小组将必须证明，相关技术是在2006年有关大型军事装备的制裁实施后转移给朝鲜的。这一点可能有难度，除非拥有全球最 先进分析能力的美国从自身利益出发，在这个问题上作一番文章。
虽然联合国的制裁委员会是由包括美国和英国在内的安理会成员国组成的，但美英国防部均不愿证实其参与相关工作。

Dick Clark, Entertainment Icon Nicknamed 'America's Oldest Teenager,' Dies at 82


Dick Clark, the music industry maverick, longtime TV host and powerhouse producer who changed the way we listened to pop music with "American Bandstand," and whose trademark "Rockin' Eve" became a fixture of New Year's celebrations, died today at the age of 82.
Clark's agent Paul Shefrin said in statement that the veteran host died this morning following a "massive heart attack."
PHOTOS: 2012 in Memoriam: Dick Clark Dies
Born in Mount Vernon, N.Y., on Nov. 30, 1929, Richard Wagstaff Clark began his lifelong career in show business began before he was even out of high school. He started working in the mailroom of WRUN, a radio station in upstate New York run by his father and uncle. It wasn't long before the teenager was on the air, filling in for the weatherman and the announcer.
Clark pursued his passion at Syracuse University, working as a disc jockey at the student-run radio station while studying for his degree in business. After graduating in 1951, Clark went back to his family's radio station, but within a year, a bigger city and bigger shows were calling.
Clark landed a gig as a DJ at WFIL in Philadelphia in 1952, spinning records for a show he called "Dick Clark's Caravan of Music." There he broke into the big time, hosting Bandstand, an afternoon dance show for teenagers.
Within five years, the whole country was watching. ABC took the show national, and "American Bandstand" was born.
Blazing a New Trail in Pop Music
"American Bandstand's" formula was simple. Clean-cut boys and girls danced to the hottest hits and the newest singles. In between, Clark chatted with the teens, who helped "rate-a-record," turning songs into sensations. Everyone showed up on "American Bandstand," from Elvis Presley to Jerry Lee Lewis, Chuck Berry to Chubby Checker.

ABC

Dick Clark, shown in this Dec. 2, 1976 photo,... View Full Size

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Dick Clark Remembered in Times Square Watch Video

When Dick Clark moved to Hollywood in 1963, "American Bandstand" moved with him. He started Dick Clark Productions, and began cranking out one hit show after another; his name became synonymous with everything from the $25,000 "Pyramid" to "TV's Bloopers & Practical Jokes" to the "American Music Awards." In 1972, Dick Clark became synonymous with one of the biggest nights of the year.
PHOTOS: Dick Clark's Celebrity Guests on 'American Bandstand'
New Year's Rockin' Eve
"Dick Clark's New Year's Rockin' Eve" on ABC became a Dec. 31 tradition, with Clark hosting the festivities for more than three decades, introducing the entertainment acts and, of course, counting down to midnight as the ball dropped in New York's Times Square.
But the traditional celebration saw a temporary stop in 2004, when Clark suffered a stroke that left him partially paralyzed and struggling to speak. Regis Philbin stepped in. But by the next New Year's Eve, Dick Clark was back, his speech still impaired. In halting words, he told the audience, "I had to teach myself how to walk and talk again. It's been a long, hard fight. My speech is not perfect but I'm getting there."
But that didn't stop him: he returned each year, and recently he was joined by Ryan Seacrest, the radio and television personality known for E!, "American Idol," and a reality TV empire.
"I am deeply saddened by the loss of my dear friend Dick Clark," Seacrest said in a statement today. "He has truly been one of the greatest influences in my life. I idolized him from the start, and I was graced early on in my career with his generous advice and counsel. When I joined his show in 2006 , it was a dream come true to work with him every New Year's Eve for the last 6 years. He was smart, charming, funny and always a true gentleman. I learned a great deal from him, and I'll always be indebted to him for his faith and support of me. He was a remarkable host and businessman and left a rich legacy to television audiences around the world. We will all miss him."
Robert Iger, Chairman and CEO for the Walt Disney Company -- the parent company of ABC, also remembered the television icon who was known for bringing memorable music to the masses.
"For more than half a century, Dick Clark brought the best of American music to audiences across the country, creating careers and countless fans for artists on his iconic shows, American Bandstand and New Year's Rockin' Eve," Iger said in a statement. "We're proud that ABC was home to those programs and will always be part of his legacy. On behalf of everyone at Disney and ABC, we send our sincere condolences to Dick's family, as well as the three generations of fans who will miss him as much as we do."

The Museum of Broadcast Communications has done the math, and figures that Dick Clark Productions has turned out more than 7,500 hours of television programming, including more than 30 series and 250 specials, as well as more than 20 movies for theatre and TV.
The Game Show Network plans to air a special tribute to Clark on Thursday along additional airings of "$25,000 Pyramid," the rest of the week and Saturday.
All this earned Clark a long list of awards and accolades: Emmys, Grammys, induction in the Rock 'n' Roll Hall of Fame, a star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame. It also made him one of the richest men in Hollywood; he also had stakes in a wide range of businesses, including restaurants, theatres and real estate.
In March, he put one of his homes on the market, asking $3.5 million for a one-of-a-kind house on 22 acres in Malibu, modeled after Fred and Wilma's house on "The Flintstones."
"America's Oldest Teenager"
Clark, whose eternally youthful look earned him the nickname "America's Oldest Teenager", is survived by his three children and his third wife, Keri Wigton, married to him since 1977. He credited his appearance to good genes, once saying "if you want to stay young looking, pick your parents very carefully."
Now, America's Oldest Teenager is gone, leaving his indelible mark on generations of fans, and helping change rock 'n' roll and TV forever. His signature sign-off was always "For now, Dick Clark … so long," said with a salute. Today, generations of Americans are saluting back.