Tuesday, May 25, 2010

Greece has defaulted before, and so have many others


Q: Does Greece have a history of defaulting on its debt?
A: Anytime you think something in financial markets is unprecedented, just speak with a market historian to get some perspective.

Given the random nature of markets, and the importance of money to most cultures, you might be surprised to find out how many times events called "unprecedented" have happened.

Most recently, investors have gotten unnerved about the financial woes of Greece. The idea of a company, much less a country, not being able to pay its debts is staggering. But you might be surprised to learn it's not that unusual.

Consider Greece. This recent scare is not the first time the country has had debt issues.The nation has defaulted or restructured its debt five times since 1826, according to market historian Bryan Taylor, chief economist at Global Financial Data.

The first time Greece issued debt was Feb. 21, 1824, when it sold bonds yielding 5%. Those 1824 bonds paid just five payments before the nation defaulted in July 1827, Taylor says.

But let's not make the mistake of painting Greeks as deadbeats. National defaults, while rare, aren't unheard of. Other European nations that have defaulted include: Austria (three times), Bulgaria (twice), Germany (in 1932), Hungary (1931), Italy (1940), Poland (twice), Portugal (twice), Romania (three times), Russia (twice), Serbia/Yugoslavia (three times), Spain (three times) and Turkey (four times).

What's the lesson from this history? First, know that bond prices are an excellent indicator of troubles with debtors. When bond prices fall, sending yields higher, that's a pretty good indicator that investors think default is more likely. These events are usually seen by capital markets .

But perhaps even more important, before you panic and think something is unprecedented, check the history. You'd be surprised how many times the unthnkable, or the seemingly impossible, has happened. 

USA Today

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.