KCPO:- Selling has stalled , but is this the end ? 1/2/2010

The selling seems to have stalled last week as prices did not go lower. The ADX has turned flat again after rose for a day. Though the Stochastic has stayed below the 20's signal line, I note the MACD is below the zero signal line, so I would NOT "hope" for any return of the bull yet.

Place stop at 2478 while waiting to see whether this market will collapse again.

 
The weekly chart ADX is falling again which is telling us the prior trend has ended. And since it is now below 20's, it is also telling us there is no trend in this market. The MACD has started to turned down but remain positive. The Stochastic has just crossed down its 80's signal line by which is offering an initial sell signal.

Meanwhile price stays below the upper Bollinger Band but still holding above the middle band which is effectively the 20 periods moving average. So this looks like another of difficult market situations for position trading, I would look for a break below the middle band for additional sell signal. And the best method I would apply is to wait for the D- to go above the prior peak formed the D+ which I marked out on the chart. I would add on to shorts positions once I see these coming in.

FKLI - The Beginning Of the End ? 1/2/2010

The most important lesson I have ever learnt from studying technical analysis is that whenever I see a divergence between the price action and an indicator (especially the trending type like MACD ), I always get cautious of whatever prior positions I hold. As in the cas of FKLI, since there were already multiple bearish divergences formed since last August, I become very suspicious of those "V" recovery or "we are out of trouble" kinds of stories. There are now 4 bearish divergences found in the daily chart.

The daily chart is nothing but bearish as the MACD which has turned negative and is now crossing down its zero signal line. This is usually taken as a more confirming and stronger sell signal. The Stochastic may has crossed into below the so-called oversold zone, but please note that the ADX has begun to rise and it is last at 25. Once the ADX is in force, it is confirming a trending market gathering strength. This is usually mean the Oscillator indicators like RSI, W%, Stochastic, MFI etc will remain "oversold" and yet prices will keep on going new low. This is an valuable lesson to be learnt here:- when next time an analyst thinks the market is "oversold" and suggest you should "buy low", you should first make sure that is the market is in a trending mode or range bound mode. Also take note that the rising ADX crossed up the falling D+ last week, this is usually a very strong sell signal.

Price has also now gone below the lower Bollinger Band, further confirming that this market is in a bear cycle. This is the first time where price goes below the lower band since early December. Place stop at 1278.

 
The weekly chart shows price has closed below the upper Bollinger Band which offers the first sell signal. Last week's low is lower than the fractal low of 1251.50 on mid December  last year.  The Stochastic  is negative and has crossed down its 80's signal line which is offering another initial sell signal. The MACD  is negative and falling, but it is still relatively "far" from its zero signal line, so maybe the bear may not has gained control completely yet. But its falling has successfully formed a bearish divergence at the weekly chart. This is a very important sign that I need to see in order to predict this market's bull  is/will be dead.

The weekly ADX has also turned downward which is confirming the prior bull trend has ceased (even though it may be temporarily) Next 2 important items to watch out for will be:-  next Friday's closing of below the bottom Bollinger Band of 1234 and D- crosses above the falling D+, then a stronger bear will emerge.

Fundamentally speaking:- I think you should watch out and start worrying about the numerous possible sovereign defaults  across  Europe. One reason why the USD has been strengthening  is  possible crisis events . Investors always without fail, flock to USD when  there is a crisis.

KL Stock - AIM

Wisdom

"The only thing stock market bulls have to fear is the complete and total lack of fear itself."

KL Stocks- Fasttrak, Huayang ,ORNA & Al-Hadharah Boustead REIT

CPO - More selling to come ? 25/1/2010

Daily prices remain below the lower Bollinger Band which is confirming CPO's overall bearishness. Take note the MACD has just crossed down its zero signal line which is a more bearish signal. The daily ADX has turned flat at 25's the last 2 days which may be signaling the beginning of a new trend.

Place stop at 2492.

 

The weekly chart is getting more bearish as we have 2 consecutive bars closing below the upper Bollinger Band. The Stochastic has now crossed down its own 80's signal line which is offering another sell signal. The MACD is now hooking around downwards but it is still positive. Watch 2358 for some support, otherwise breaking down below that level would bring out more selling.

FKLI - Maybe it is time for selling? 25/1/2010

Last Friday price hit my stop when the market finally reacted to what has been happening at DJIA(the whole Santa Rally gains wiped out in 3 days) . I have not been carried away by all those "we are already out of troubles" kind of blind optimism that has been surfacing the past few weeks. With the presence of a multiple bearish divergence, I remain very cautious as prices continue to break higher.

The current readings are that price has closed below the upper Bollinger Band which usually offer an initial sell signal. The Stochastic has already turned negative and if it is to cross down its 80's signal line, it would offer another sell signal. The MACD has hooked down but remain positive. If it crosses down, it would be forming another bearish divergence. The daily ADX has started to fall, indicating the prior trend has ceased.

Place stop at 1304. If it again manages to break its previous high of 1307, maybe the bull still has some breath left. But if it closes below 1288, I would be keeping an eye on a bigger bear.

The weekly chart still maintain its overall bullishness as the Stochastic is still climbing and price stays above the upper Bollinger Band. And so is the ADX which mean the current uptrend is still intact.But there is a very interesting item:- the MACD was turning upward last week where we were expecting it to cross up its moving average. But it did not, but instead is turning downward again. This kind of pattern is usually considered as a forewarning  of an extremely bearish occurrence. Please also take note the weekly chart has finally formed a bearish divergence as at now. This is usually confirming the end of the whole prior  cycle.

If you are still holding a large stock portfolio, especially of those big index related GLCs/blue chips. I think this would be a good time for you re-evaluate them.

Hasta la vista baby, Crude Oil ?

I last wrote on the crude oil on late February last year (http://tunmarvinworld.blogspot.com/2009/02/will-crude-oil-bull-return.html) on the possibility for the return of the bull. I wrote "- "I think there is a great chance that it will hit usd70-80 again". Crude has since rallied from a low of USD32.40 to its recent high of USD 83.95. Since it had hit my target, I think it may be right time  to take a fresh look at the charts to try to educatedly guess what is its next possible direction.

Looking at the weekly chart, I see many items that strongly suggest forthcoming bearishness. First the MACD has failed to register higher peaks when prices have been registering new highs on the final week of October , 2008 and mid January this year. The Stochastic is even worse with its series of lower peaks. As at this week, the Stochastic has begun to hook down but it remains positive. But the MACD has already turned negative and heading down towards its zero signal line. Once it crosses down below there, it would be a solid bearish signal.

Prices have been stuck within the Bollinger Band which the falling and lowly (now at 11's) ADX is confirming this lack of directional trend. The conclusion as at this time will be: there is no strong selling signal yet but with the bearish divergence, you should get ready for a strong sell which may happen soon .

The daily chart is confirmed bearish as price is not below the lower Bollinger Band which is a sell, sell, sell. The MACD is negative and is heading down toward its own zero signal line. Once broken below, we could see more intense selling to emerge. The Stochastic is also bearish as it is already below its 20 signal line. I would keep an eye on this as the ADX is now flat which mean the trend is still NOT strong yet. So this is not a powerful trend , I would pay some attention to the oversold story. But if price is not able to recover back above the middle Bollinger Band which is effectively the 20 SMA, I would think this market may collapse soon.

Crude oil may be going back to USD54 initially. Or maybe even we will see it at USD20 ?

Beginning of the end for "Rally Of Hope" ?

I have been cautious about the DJIA since I last wrote on it in  end October last year  (http://tunmarvinworld.blogspot.com/2009/10/has-djia-reached-top.html).   Though then there were no sign yet that the market is about to collapse again. But since it was already near its upper Fibonacci ratio retracement levels, I warn myself not to be carried away by the increasing bullish sentiments expressed by the "experts" all over the media.

The US market people have been calling the current bull rally a "Rally Of Hope" as it has been rebounding from the 2008 slaughterhouse low of 6,469 on 6th, March, 2009 to the recent high of 10,729.

But what happened the past 3 days has completely wiped out the Santa Rally's gain and bring the Dow back to its mid November's levels. And this is the fastest large fall since before the Hope Rally started. I can see from the weekly chart that the longer term trend line is now broken. Unless prices manage to go back above this trend line within the next few days, I would say this could mark the end of this rebound.  From the weekly chart, price has now closed below the upper Bollinger Band which by itself offer the first initial sell signal.I also notice the MACD has now crossed down and dipping its head acutely. But since it is still relatively "far" from its zero signal line, I would wait for  more confirmation  to emerge. The Stochastic has also crossed down its moving average but it still manage to stay above its 80 signal line. Once crossed down the 80's line, I would take that as an initial sell signal. The weekly ADX has also stopped rising and begin to dip its head. Since it is now above both the D+ and D-, I would take that as a confirmation  that the prior trend has ended, even though that may be just a temporary one.

From the marked out Fibonacci ratio, you should take note that this market has already retraced more than 50% of its prior bear cycle. In a mature financial market like the Dow, it is unusual that the market would  retraces more than 50% . So I would say this is an important and significant point to pay attention to.

First thing that the DJIA daily chart catches my attention is that price has closed below the lower Bollinger Band for the first time  . The daily ADX which has been "dead" at below 20's since mid December (that is why the Santa Rally was not impressive) , has now started to rise. Since the D- is hanging above the D+ and  looking at how the D- has expanded outward, this is a confirmation of a great bear is in action. This great bear is backed by a negative and falling MACD which is falling near its zero signal line. Once broke though below, we can expect more bears will come into the market. The Stochastic is also negative and falling and it has just fallen below its own 50's signal line which is usually a more confirming bearish signal.

The MOST IMPORTANT item in this chart is the  bearish divergences found at the MACD and the prices. Prices have been hitting new highs since mid November last year to recently, but the MACD has failed to register higher peaks. This is usually a sure sign that the bull is getting stale. As a result, the current whack down. If the bull fails to regain ground swiftly over the next few days, we could easily see the Dow goes back to 9,000 and 8,100.

Unless price can regain above the upper Bollinger Band soon, I would conclude this is the beginning of an end to the " Rally Of Hope". If Elliot Wave Theory could be trusted, we could be doing the final major wave down where either we could see a double bottom or a new low. I am sorry to bust your bubble for thinking that we are already out of trouble.

KL Stocks - KEURO & BIOSIS

USD Bull Revisit

Last I wrote on the USD on December 5th. on the possible USD "bull kicking the teeth of "experts" ", USD  Index chart had begun rallied up strongly.

After hitting a high of 78.449,   it came back down a bit and did its 38.2% retracement and found support there. Price started to close up above the lower Bollinger Band on the 15th. which offer the first initial buy signal. The Stochastic has gone back up and crossed above its 20's signal line which offer its second initial buy signal. The next buy signals to watch out for will be a price closing of above the upper Bollinger Band and a positive crossing up by the MACD. Both of these will mean a stronger buy signal. With the ADX is now hovering around the 28's , any  new up move would be a powerful one.

If my Elliot Wave count is correct, this next up wave should be the powerful wave 3 which some would call it the "mother of all bulls" kind of move.

Fundamental reasons ? Could the Feds be increasing the interest rates soon ? Or is it because the rest of the major currencies are collapsing (long overdue) ? Or is there a geo-political conflict coming on ?

KL Stock - Prlexus

KL Stocks - Tdex, Hexagon & CBIP

KL Stocks - Cresndo, Distech, Dnonce, Kbunai, Kzen & Sitatt

Chuck LeBeau as this year’s recipient of the Traders’ Hall of Fame Award

The Next Traders’ Hall of Fame Award Recipient is …


By John Boyer
  What earns someone a place in the Traders’ Hall of Fame? The most important qualification is that they have made a lifelong commitment to help other traders learn how to trade. This year’s inductee has been helping traders for decades to understand the power of technical analysis and its application to trading systems. Through his classic book, Computer Analysis of the Futures Market, his work with the System Traders Club, the extensive list of articles he has published and his presentations and webinars to many traders, Chuck LeBeau has more than met this requirement. 

It is my honor it announce Chuck LeBeau as this year’s recipient of the Traders’ Hall of Fame Award. I want to thank Chuck for all of the work he has done to help educate traders and develop tools to make trading easier for all of us.

CPO - More Weaknesses ? 18/1/2010

As I had sold last week, the short trade has behaved well. The negative MACD keeps its descent toward the zero signal line. If breached, it would provide another good reason to sell more. The Stochastic is still falling and may enter into the oversold area soon. I call it oversold as the ADX is not rising but falling, so at best I would call this a minor move. Place stop at 2549.

The weekly chart has begun to show some initial weaknesses as it lost 139 points. The Stochastic has turned negative but it still remain above the 80's signal line. Watch out for more sell signal if the Stochastic crosses down the 80's signal line. The MACD has hooked down but it still remain positive. The previously rising ADX has now turned flat confirming the prior trend is fading. All these signals are still not negative yet but the more damaging item is the weekly price has ow closed below the upper Bollinger Band. This usually is taken by those more adventurous traders as an initial sell signal. So unless prices go back up above the upper Bollinger Band soon, I would start to turn more bearish on CPO.

CPO is currently acting out of the MACD's bearish divergence at its daily chart. We may see it goes down to 2370 or 2290.

FKLI - Stay With The Bull 18/1/2010

Everything still look alright at the daily chart as the MACD remains positive and still rising. The Stochastic stays above the 80's signal line and has just done another crossing up. The most assuring item is of course, the rising ADX  which has now gone above the 20's signal line confirming a strong tend is in place.
Place stop at1294.

 

The weekly chart is also strengthening as the ADX has started to rise again which is confirming the beginning of a new trend. Price has managed to stayed above the upper Bollinger Band which is bullish. The Stochastic has crossed up again through the 80's zone. MACD is turning the corner but it is still negative.

I think the market is allowing the penny stocks/2nd and 3rd liners/ BS stocks to play out their bull rally before calling it a day. A word of caution here is that I think both the weekly indicators may be on their way to form their first bearish divergence on the weekly chart. This is usually a necessary formation before the market will really come to an end of its current cycle. So we would have to be more alert the next time prices go below the upper Bollinger Band as it may be the beginning of the end for FKLI. This is especially so since there are already multi period bearish divergences at the daily chart.

The Stupid Investors

"世界上最愚蠢的事，莫过于听人讲故事，然后掏口袋投资."

——商业周刊发行人金惟纯引述朋友所说，点出多数人的投资盲点。《商业周刊》

And now, a word from God

Pat Robertson 'A Public Relations Nightmare,' Says God

Almighty Holds Rare Press Conference

NEW YORK  - In the wake of his comments about the earthquake in Haiti, televangelist Pat Robertson has become a "public relations nightmare" and a "gynormous embarrassment to me, personally," God said today.
In a rare press conference at the Grand Hyatt in New York City, the usually reclusive Almighty said that He was taking the unusual step of airing His feelings in public because "enough is enough."
"I pray that his TV show would just go away, but of course, when you're me there's no one to pray to," God said, to the laughter of the packed room of reporters.
While God held out no hope that Rev. Robertson's "700 Club" would be cancelled any time soon, He did say, somewhat ruefully, "If Pat Robertson were on NBC he'd be replaced by Jay Leno by now."

The Borowitz Report

The White House has dismissed as "stupid" comments by evangelist broadcaster Pat Robertson suggesting that quake-struck Haiti was cursed.

Spokesman Robert Gibbs said he was amazed by the remarks.
During a broadcast on his Christian Broadcasting Network, Mr Robertson suggested the Haiti's earthquake was divine retribution.
He said Haiti had sworn a pact with the devil when it freed itself from French colonial rule.
 
The White House said the comments were completely inappropriate. "It never ceases to amaze, that in times of amazing human suffering, somebody says something that could be so utterly stupid," Mr Gibbs said.

"But it, like clockwork, happens with some regularity."

Mr Robertson, an 80-year-old former presidential candidate, made the comments on Wednesday on his programme, "The 700 Club".

"They said, we will serve you if you will get us free from the French. True story. And so, the devil said, okay it's a deal," the televangelist said during the broadcast.

"Ever since, they have been cursed by one thing after the other," he added, comparing Haiti to its more prosperous neighbour, the Dominican Republic.

In a statement on his network's website, spokesman Chris Roslan said Mr Robertson never said the earthquake - which is feared to have left tens of thousands dead - was God's wrath.

He added: "History, combined with the horrible state of the country, has led countless scholars and religious figures over the centuries to believe the country is cursed".- BBC

The reason China is happy with Google's exit

Baidu it and you’ll know, Google it and you’ll know too much…

KL Stocks - GPRO, Harbor & Yilai

KL Stocks - Arank, Bolton, Dutaland, HLind, Jotech, KPS, Texcycl, WTK & YSPSAH