Tun Marvin's World

2012-02-02T23:12:00.000+08:00

Liquidity Differences Between Stocks and Forex

Many traders coming from stocks or futures markets realize that there are quite a few differences between the two assets. After all, a stock represents one company, in one economy in the entire world, whereas a currency represents an entire economy. Stocks are denominated in currency.

Without a standardized currency to associate value, there would be no way of trading stocks. Currencies make trading financial assets possible.

But that’s not where the differences end. The Forex market, exchanging currencies between the largest economies in the world, is a 24 hour a day market. If business is closing for the day in the United States, shops are opening in Sydney preparing to begin the next day. When we’re sound asleep in New York, or Dallas, TX – the FX market is burgeoning with activity from across the Atlantic as traders and liquidity providers in Europe speculate their day away.

Let’s first start by defining liquidity. Liquidity is the ability by which an asset can be purchased or sold without affecting the price. A great way to illustrate this relationship is to imagine two different companies. Let’s say that company A is an established company that is listed on the S&P 500. As one of the five hundred largest companies in the United States, this company is widely followed with news freely available throughout the day. There are many ‘blue chip’ companies like this across stock markets around the world For the purpose of this illustration, let’s imagine you have a $10,000 investment in Company A.

Now let’s imagine another type of company. Let’s say that your friend Bob recently started a widget company. Bob really enjoys making widgets, on the weekend as a hobby, and has decided to try his hand at setting up his own shop. At this point, Bob has only shared the idea with you – so you are the only person that knows about Bob’s widget shop. Bob’s a good friend, and he seems passionate about his idea, so you decide, ‘what the heck,’ and loan Bob $10,000.

At this point, you have two investments of $10,000. One is a publicly traded stock of a Blue Chip company, while the other is an idea that only you and Bob know about.

Now, lets say that you needed to get some money very quickly – and these 2 investments are the only option we have for raising capital. So we will need to sell one of our 2 investments of $10,000.

If we wanted to sell the stock in Company A, we could easily place a sell order the following morning. Company A, being a large-cap stock in the S&P 500, should be able to transact our order at market rates with little change in price, provided that markets are open for business and performing orderly.

If the S&P 500, where Company A is listed for trading is closed, then we will be unable to sell our stock to receive proceeds.

However, our investment in Bob’s widget shop may be a little more difficult to manage. After all, Bob only told you about his business, so it may be difficult to find alternative buyers. And if you did find a buyer, liquidating your entire $10,000 may prove challenging. To convince another investor to take over your shares in Bob’s Widget Company, you may have to sell your share at a discount. Investors may be willing to buy this part of Bob’s company, but given that this is a speculative venture by someone that few investors know, you’d probably have to take a loss on the investment. You may be able to sell this share, but you may only receive $5,000 for it.

This is liquidity.

The fact that we could go out into the Stock Market and sell our shares in Company A for close to the current market price, whereas if we were selling our stake in Bob’s Widget company denote the fact that the stock is more liquid. We are able to close our position with less denigration in value. Now, let’s take this relationship a step further.

The FX Market is open 24 hours a day, with the world’s largest banks and brokerage houses trading and speculating – not just for themselves, but for their corporate customers as well.

On average, the Forex market transacts $3.98 Trillion dollars of volume per day. The entire economy in the United States is valued a little under $14.6 Trillion dollars (using 2010 World Bank figures). That means that the Forex market can transact volume larger than that of the world’s largest independent economy in 4 days. Over a week, the Forex market volume can transact business greater than the size of the economies of the United States, Australia, Canada, The Netherlands, and South Africa – and that’s on average. This is why many call Forex ‘The Most Liquid Market in the World.’

David v/s Goliath

As we looked at above, the United States economy is valued slightly under $14.6 Trillion dollars, making it the largest independent economy in the world. But within that economy, numerous investment options exist. Many traders are aware that a large portion of investment capital looks for safer investments with more stable returns than what is available in stock markets. After all, most of us have seen a stock portfolio, or a mutual fund bounce around like a pinball in our portfolios. Imagine if this was money managed for a University endowment, or a retirement plan for the employees of your company. Many of these situations necessitate a more conservative risk profile than what’s available in stocks.

Much of this investment is geared towards fixed-income instruments such as Bonds. As a matter of fact, considerably more investment capital in the United States is based in these more conservative assets. The Bank of International Settlements estimates the value of the U.S. bond market at $35.2 Trillion (That’s correct – more than twice the value of the entire U.S. economy).

When foreign investors want to buy into this U.S. bond market, which currency do you think they will need to exchange into before doing so?

That’s right – before they can ever affect a transaction in the U.S. Bond market, they will need to exchange Euros, or Yen, or Australian Dollars for U.S. Dollars.

This is just one of the reasons for affecting a Forex transaction, but the difference in size between these markets is undeniable. Forex is a true Goliath within the financial industry. Remember, we classified liquidity as the degree to which you can close your trade without affecting the price. So in many ways, trading the Forex market gives you this benefit of liquidity by default. But for traders not used to this mannerism of liquidity, a few high points populate the benefits.

How can liquidity help me?

First, the Forex market is open twenty four hours a day. You have the ability to close or manage Forex positions around the clock. When you have a stock investment or a futures contract on a regional exchange, you are locked into the period with which they will allow you to open or close your trade.

Anyone that has traded stocks before knows the feeling of seeing bad news during the evening, only to watch your investments dive when the market opened the following morning after everyone in the world has had the chance to digest this bad news.

Forex is worldwide and traded 24 hours a day. If you see a bad news report on Tuesday evening, you can probably close or manage your trade by simply pulling up your platform.

This is a huge benefit that can save traders considerable sums of capital, and frustration.

In Forex, because of the 24 hour, worldwide nature of the market – Gap risk is GREATLY decreased by the simple fact that there are fewer market closes.

Forex Markets can offer deeper levels of volume on the assets you trade

A trader experienced with equities trading is probably familiar with a level 2 pricing. This is a feature available on electronically traded stocks from exchanges such as the NASDAQ that show the various ‘amounts,’ available from various participants and the price which they are willing to buy or sell. This is a great feature in markets, as traders can see the prices above and below the current market price to idealize if there may be more support on the bid or resistance on the ask.

But as we pointed out above, the stock market is much smaller than the Forex market. After all, stocks are denominated in currency; currencies are the basis of every financial transaction that takes place in the world. Most Forex volume takes place in the most commonly traded currency pairs, often called the ‘major pairs,’ such as the EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CAD, USD/CHF, and USD/CAD.

With stocks, we are looking at quite a different scenario as there are literally THOUSANDS of options for investors and traders. For instance, one of the more popular indices in the United States is the S&P 500. This is the largest 500 companies in the US; but this is just one segment of the stock market: Large cap (Large capitalization stocks). The S&P 500 completely ignores mid-caps; they had to create a separate index for them, called the S&P Mid-Cap 400. With these two indexes we’re looking at 900 stocks, and we still haven’t even begun to count the thousands of small and micro cap companies.

Now imagine all of these sub-divided markets, offering bids to buy and asks to sell spread amongst thousands of companies.

Stock markets, because of the sheer number of available investment options, are much smaller and quite a bit more fragmented than what we see in FX. This means, with smaller sums in each of these ‘sub-markets,’ there could be much lower liquidity (fewer traders trading with far fewer dollars = less competition).

When markets are moving fast, liquidity can be greatly decreased to the point where the trader is seeing large slippage on their trades; disabling their abilities to adequately close or manage their positions even while markets are open.

The additional volume available in FX could enable these same traders a greater source of liquidity, which can offer a greater degree of price protection in fast markets.

2012-02-02T23:09:00.000+08:00

The Capital Strength Of The 20 Largest Banks In America

As Greece flirts with default, the focus in the U.S. is shifting to the capital strength of domestic banks with plenty to lose. DealBook's Peter Eavis reports that five of the biggest U.S. banks, including JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, have more than $80 billion exposure to the riskiest European sovereigns — Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain. And the credit default swaps the banks bought to protect themselves against a credit event may never pay out.
But there's more to worry about than Europe, based on a handy new note from Royal Bank of Canada that details the capital ratios of the 20 biggest US banks in the fourth quarter of 2011.
It shows a rise in the banks' average Tier 1 capital ratio to 10.45 percent, from 10.29 percent in the third quarter, reflecting divestments and capital raising throughout the industry.
But under the incoming Basel III capital rules, which are set to drag down the average Tier 1 ratio to 9.00 percent, some of the largest lenders, which tend to lag regional firms, will need to do more to meet the new 8.5 percent requirement.
While non-performing assets and charge-offs generally declined in the fourth quarter, any turnaround could also force banks to raise more capital in stressed markets — and there are already plenty of jitters.

20. M&T Bank Corporation

Current Tier 1 capital ratio: 6.86% (down from 6.87% in Q3)
Under Basel III: NA
With the lowest capital ratio of all the major banks studied by RBC, M&T suffered a rise in charge-offs in the fourth quarter (to 0.50 percent of average loans, from 0.39 percent in the quarter earlier) but reduced its non-performing assets to 2.70 percent of all loans (from 2.90 percent in Q3).

19. Regions Financial Corporation

Current Tier 1 capital ratio: 8.50% (up from 8.16% in Q3)
Under Basel III: 7.70% (unchanged)
Regions Financial pushed down its non-performing assets to 7.96 per cent of total loans in the fourth quarter (from 8.19 percent during the previous quarter), and also improved charge-offs to 2.16 percent of average loans (from 2.51 percent).

18. US Bancorp

US Bancorp CEO Richard Davis

Current Tier 1 capital ratio: 8.60% (up from 8.47% in Q3)
Under Basel III: 8.20% (unchanged)
A recovery in problem loans helped lift US Bancorp's fourth-quarter profit, as non-performing assets fell to 3.27 percent of total loans (from 3.56 percent in the previous quarter) and charge-offs declined to 1.16 percent of average loans (from 1.38 percent).
The bank expects further credit improvements as the U.S. economy strengthens.

17. SunTrust Banks

Current Tier 1 capital ratio: 9.25% (down from 9.31% in Q3)
Under Basel III: NA (9.65% in Q3)
One of a host of banks setting aside less for doubtful loans after delivering a higher fourth-quarter profit, SunTrust shrank non-performing assets to 6.53 percent of total loans (down from 6.90 percent in the third quarter) and cut charge-offs to 1.55 percent (from 1.67 percent).

16. Fifth Third Bancorp

Current Tier 1 capital ratio: 9.34% (up from 9.33% in Q3)
Under Basel III: 9.70% (down from 9.80%)
The Midwestern regional bank is setting aside less cash for problem loans after charge-offs declined to 1.16 percent in the fourth quarter (from 1.31 percent), alongside non-performing assets at 5.29 percent (from 5.29 percent).

15. Wells Fargo

Current Tier 1 capital ratio: 9.46% (up from 9.34% in Q3)
Under Basel III: 7.49% (up from 7.41%)
Wells Fargo, the largest bank by market value, cut non-performing assets to 5.23 percent in the fourth quarter (from 5.36 percent in the quarter prior) and also reduced its charge-offs to 1.30 percent (from 1.32 percent).
The bank is considering returning capital to shareholders after delivering a record quarterly profit.

14. Zions Bancorporation

Current Tier 1 capital ratio: 9.53% (up from 9.53% in Q3)
Under Basel III: 7.90% (Q3 data unavailable)
Zions Bancorporation swung back to profit in the fourth quarter as non-performing assets declined to 3.93 percent (from 4.56 percent) and charge-offs fell to 1.05 percent (from 1.13 percent).

13. Capital One Financial Corporation

Current Tier 1 capital ratio: 9.70% (down from 10.00% in Q3)
Under Basel III: 9.80% (down from 10.10%)
Capital One's fourth-quarter profit tumbled more than 40 percent as the bank put away extra funds to cover problem loans.At the same time, its charge-offs increased to 2.66 percent (from 3.00 percent) while non-performing loans were slightly lower at 2.88 percent (from 3.00 in the third quarter).

12. BB&T Corporation

Current Tier 1 capital ratio: 9.70% (down from 9.78% in Q3)
Under Basel III: 8.80% (unchanged)
One of the few banks to remain profitable during the crisis, the North Caroline bank impressed with its fourth-quarter profit. Non-performing assets also fell to 3.36 percent (from 4.07 percent), as charge-offs held steady around 1.47 percent.

11. Bank of America

Current Tier 1 capital ratio: 9.86% (up from 8.65% in Q3)
Under Basel III: 7.25% to 7.50% (up from 6.39%)
The big jump in BofA's capital ratios reflects a string of divestments aimed at shoring up the bank's balance sheet, helping lift its fourth-quarter profit. At the same time, its non-performing assets fell to 5.45 percent (from 5.59 percent in the quarter prior) alongside charge-offs, which shrank to 1.71 percent (from 2.12 percent)
However, the bank has only covered 12 percent of its exposure to risky European sovereigns with credit default swaps, which could come back to bite.

10. JPMorgan Chase

Current Tier 1 capital ratio: 10.00% (up from 9.88% in Q3)
Under Basel III: 7.90% (up from 7.70%)
While JPMorgan reduced non-performing loans to 3.89 percent in the fourth quarter (from 4.20 per cent the previous quarter), it suffered a rise in charge-offs (from 1.45 percent to 1.65 percent) and weaker profits in the same period.
Chief executive Jamie Dimon also says he is "increasingly worried" about Europe's debt crisis, which still threatens to smash US banks.

9. Huntington Bancshares Incorporated

Current Tier 1 capital ratio: 10.00% (down from 10.17% in Q3)
Under Basel III: NA
Huntington Bancshares experienced a rise in non-performing assets, which reached 3.35 percent in the fourth quarter (up from 3.13 percent), while charge-offs fell to 0.84 percent (from 0.92 percent). After lifting its quarterly profit, the bank is setting aside less money for problem loans.

8. PNC Financial Services Group

Current Tier 1 capital ratio: 10.30% (down from 10.49% in Q3)
Under Basel III: 8.00% to 8.51%
Lower revenue dragged down PNC Financial's fourth-quarter profit, but non-performing assets were less of a concern at 3.58 per cent (down from 3.76 percent), as were charge-offs at 0.82 percent (compared to 0.95 percent during the previous quarter).

7. Comerica Incorporated

Commerica CEO Ralph Babb

Current Tier 1 capital ratio: 10.31% (down from 10.57% in Q3)
Under Basel III: NA
While Comerica delivered a flat fourth-quarter result due to the cost of a recent acquisition, the regional lender managed to reduce its charge-offs to 0.57 percent (from 0.77 percent) while it cut non-performing assets to 2.66 percent (from 2.95 percent).

6. KeyCorp

Current Tier 1 capital ratio: 11.28% (unchanged)
Under Basel III: NA
The small mid-west bank's fourth-quarter profit beat estimates as charge-offs fell to 0.86 percent (from 0.90 percent). However, KeyCorp's non-performing assets climbed to 2.80 percent (from 2.12 percent) over the same period.

5. Citigroup

Current Tier 1 capital ratio: 11.80% (up from 11.71% in Q3)
Under Basel III: NA
While Citigroup boats the best capital ratio of any of the big four banks, its non-performing loans were at 8.05 percent in the fourth quarter (down from 8.42 percent) as charge-offs declined to 2.54 percent (from 2.77 percent).
Citigroup says it is well-protected from a credit event in Europe, with 47 percent of its exposure to the continent's troubled sovereigns covered by credit default swaps, but there's no guarantee the stressed insurers will be able to pay out.
The bank also posted a weaker fourth-quarter profit as its investment banking and trading operations faltered.

4. Popular Inc

Current Tier 1 capital ratio: 12.10% (up from 12.02% in Q3)
Under Basel III: NA
Improved credit quality helped return Popular to profit in the fourth quarter, as charge-offs fell (to 2.42 percent from 2.58 percent) and non-performing loans were cut (to 11.40 percent from 13.72 percent).

3. Northern Trust Corporation

Current Tier 1 capital ratio: 12.10% (up from 11.76% in Q3)
Under Basel III: 12.30% (up from 11.80%)
Northern Trust, which is implementing a major cost-cutting program as profits slide, experienced a reduction in non-performing assets (to 1.08 percent, from 1.18 percent) and charge-offs (at 0.25 percent, down from 0.40 percent) during the fourth quarter.

2. Bank of New York Mellon Corporation

Current Tier 1 capital ratio: 13.40% (up from 12.48% in Q3)
Under Basel III: 7.10% (up from 6.60%) Non-performing assets have risen to 1.36 percent of total loans in the fourth quarter (from 1.40 percent in Q3) alongside charge-offs, which are down to 0.22 percent (from 0.15 percent), as fourth-quarter earnings missed expectations.

1. State Street Corporation

Current Tier 1 capital ratio: 16.90% (up from 15.96% in Q3)
Under Basel III: 14.50% (up from 10.10%) At State Street, with by far the highest Tier 1 ratio of any US bank, non-performing assets have fallen to 3.06 percent in the fourth quarter (from 2.87 percent) and net charge-offs have disappeared (from 1.04 percent during Q3).
The firm, which missed profit expectations in the fourth quarter, has embarked on a major cost-cutting program — including slashing staff.

2012-02-02T22:58:00.000+08:00

Meet 13 Other People Who Have Lost Their British Honors Beside Fred Goodwin

The Queen of England has stripped former RBS CEO Fred Goodwin of his knighthood, it was reported earlier today. Goodwin was originally knighted for his contributions to the banking industry in 2004, but that doesn't seem too fitting after RBS' £45 billion taxpayer bailout. But Goodwin isn't the first to lose an honorable British title. People usually lose an honor when convicted of a crime or for political reasons. There have been 34 people since 1995 who have lost the title, according to The Telegraph. When the honours forfeiture committee was set up in 1994 for the purpose of recommendation title cancellations, there had been 15 titles stripped since 1979.
The forfeiture committee recommends the title cancellations to the Queen, who has the sole power to strip individuals of the title. The news is then published and recorded in the London Gazette.
We rounded up some of the most interesting people who've lost their titles and the reasons why.

Anthony Blunt, art historian

Year Knighted: 1956 Year Title Stripped: 1979
Reason: Found to be part of the Cambridge Five spy ring in 1964, which passed information to Soviet Russia during the war.

Allen Stanford, financier

Year Knighted: 2006 (in Antigua)
Year Title Stripped: 2009
Reason: Arrested for running a ponzi scheme worth over $8 billion.

Jean Else, educator/teacher

Year Knighted: 2001
Year Title Stripped: 2011
Reason: Fired from the school for financial irregularities, then later investigated and banned from running a school.
*Else is the only woman to have her Damehood stripped.

Robert Mugabe, president of Zimbabwe

Year Knighted: 1994 (honorary)
Year Title Stripped: 2008
Reason: Britain imposed sanctions on Zimbabwe over human rights abuses in the country.

Vidkun Quisling, Norwegian politician

Year Knighted: 1929
Year Title Stripped: 1940
Reason: Aiding the Nazis during their invasion and occupation of Norway.

Roger Casement, Irish diplomat and poet

Year Knighted: 1911
Year Title Stripped: 1916
Reason: Treason. He helped organize the the Irish Volunteers, a group of Irish nationalists. He was captured by the British in the Easter Rising in 1916 and hanged.

Lester Piggott, horse jockey

Year Knighted: n/a
Year Title Stripped: 1987
Reason: Piggott spent three years in prison for tax evasion.

Kim Philby, British intelligence officer

Year Knighted: 1946
Year Title Stripped: 1965
Reason: Part of the Cambridge Five Spy ring that passed British intelligence on to Soviet Russia.

Prince Naseem, professional boxer

Year MBE Given: 1999
Year Title Stripped: 2006
Reason: Arrested for crashing his car while driving 90mph. The driver of the car he hit broke every major bone in his body and suffered brain damage.

Jack Lyons, businessman

Year Knighted: n/a
Year Title Stripped: 1991
Reason: Charged for stock-market manipulation related to shares of Guinness.

Albert Henry, former leader of Cook Islands

Year Knighted: 1974
Year Title Stripped: 1978
Reason: Committing electoral fraud.

Terry Lewis, former Australian police commissioner

Year Knighted: 1986
Year Title Stripped: 1993
Reason: Arrested and imprisoned on charges of police corruption, found as the result of the Fitzgerald Inquiry.

Nicolae Ceasescu, former leader of Communist Romania

Wikimedia Commons/Romanian Communism Online Photo Collection

Year Knighted: 1978
Year Title Stripped: 1989
Reason: His rule over Communist Romania was brutal and oppressive, and resulted in an impoverished and poor nation.

2012-02-02T22:42:00.002+08:00

Legend, Kennedy Center program honor

Marvin Gaye

Grammy award-winning singer John Legend surprised a high school choir Tuesday at the Kennedy Center to help start a program encouraging young artists to confront social issues with their art, in honor of the late Marvin Gaye.

The project, "What's Going On ... Now," echoes Gaye's lyrics and asks young people to express how things have changed in the four decades since Gaye's hit album, "What's Going On."

Students can upload videos, photos, poems, music or any recordings of creative expression to the project's website to answer that question.

Gaye's groundbreaking 1971 Motown album tackled difficult social issues such as war, drug addiction and poverty, and asked audiences to reflect on the times. His 1972 performance at the Kennedy Center in his hometown was a historic comeback for Gaye — his first live performance in two years since the death of his singing partner and friend Tammi Terrell. It's also believed to be the only time Gaye sang his entire "What's Going On" album in concert.

Legend, 33, will re-create Gaye's performance in two concerts in May with the National Symphony Orchestra and other performers. They will also incorporate recordings submitted by students. The Kennedy Center will feature user-generated content on the project's website, and two young participants will win a free trip to Washington for the concert.

Legend surprised a show choir Tuesday from Washington's Duke Ellington School of the Arts while they were rehearsing for a performance of "What's Going On" at the Kennedy Center. Many of the students' jaws dropped as Legend sat down at the piano to sing with them.

As Legend sang with the students, India Reynolds, 17, a member of the choir, said they all sang backgrounds a little softer to hear his voice.

"If 'What's Going On' came out yesterday, it still would have been a hit," she said. "He wrote that album so that people would listen."

2012-02-02T22:40:00.000+08:00

苏丹 - 中国“第二个

利比亚”?

南北苏丹争油中国成夹心饼

南北苏丹目前正就石油取道北方的过境费用僵持不下，中国亦成为两国石油角力的“夹心饼”。

南苏丹去年7月脱离苏丹独立，但双方如何分配石油利益却未有定案。

在南北苏丹分裂前，中国伙同喀土穆政权开采油田，其中80%油井虽位处南部，却需穿越北方的石油管道，才能将石油输往中国修建的红海港口。

中国约有5%石油由苏丹南部进口。自2005年至去年7月前，南北苏丹几乎将石油利益均分，但南苏丹独立后，北苏丹一直要求中国就过境费问题向南方施压。

中国要两面兼顾，既向拥有油田的南方提供经济援助，又要与拥有输油设施的北方维持友好。

南北双方就收费问题一直谈不拢。至去年底，苏丹擅自扣起南苏丹部分石油，声称用来偿还10亿美元的过境费。南方则抨击北方偷了价值8.15亿美元的石油，坚持早已付清费用，拒绝接受北方索价每桶32美元过境费。

南苏丹更于周末起停产石油，企图一拍两散。北苏丹目前已放软口风，表示会归还扣押的南苏丹油轮。

南北战火或重燃

但路透社引述业界消息称，北苏丹至少已卖掉一艘运油轮的原油。

观察员忧虑，南北的石油利益争夺战，令南苏丹陷入独立以来最大危机，甚至可能令南北战火重燃。

中国积极开垦非洲欧美担忧资源掠夺

近年不少欧美国家质疑，中国一直有计划性地掠夺非洲资源。

中国从2000年开始，就不断鼓励国内有实力的企业“走进非洲”。之后的六年，中非贸易从原本的65亿美元，暴增至550亿美元，中国也成为继美国之后，非洲的第二大贸易伙伴。

从投资方面也可看出，中国对非洲投资快速增长。

2003年底中国对非洲的投资仅为4.9亿美元，到2011年已暴增到147亿美元，成长30倍，涉及采矿、金融、制造、建筑、旅游及农林牧渔等诸多领域，对非投资企业已超过2000家。

西媒指搞新殖民主义

根据统计，这些在非洲的中国企业虽绝大部分都是私营公司，但主要的投资项目，脱离不了基础设施、能源及银行等。

让欧美等国意识到，中国似乎要假借帮助之名，行掠夺石油、天然气之实。甚至有媒体直指中国在搞“新殖民主义”。

《华盛顿邮报》曾报道，中非贸易额增加，但非洲人民的经济水平并没有因此获得提升。

《经济学家》更直指，600年前，明朝航海家从非洲带回一头长颈鹿，是为了满足皇帝的好奇心；如今中国船只搬走石油、矿石，满足一个庞大经济发展体的贪婪胃口。

中国高官曾晤苏丹总统谈南北石油争议

南苏丹去年7月脱离苏丹独立，但双方如何分配石油利益却未有定案。

29中国工人在苏丹被掳事件，发生在中国全国政协主席贾庆林到访苏丹邻国埃塞俄比亚之际。

他此行主要目的是出席非洲联盟峰会，以及为中国无偿援建的非洲联盟会议中心揭幕。

他抵达埃塞俄比亚后，曾与苏丹总统巴希尔会面，讨论南北苏丹近日的石油争议。

南苏丹因与苏丹谈判石油过境费破裂，在上周宣布将逐步停产石油，令中国在当地庞大石油利益受到影响。

中石油在苏丹地区投资了上百亿美元，80%项目在现时的南苏丹。

苏丹恐成中国“第二个利比亚”

俄罗斯科学院远东研究所副所长安德烈·奥斯特洛夫斯基认为，南北苏丹决裂，中国正担心成为“第二个利比亚”的出现，让北京蒙受巨额损失。

他指出，中国对苏丹的投资大约为200 亿美元。这正好是由于利比亚内战而遭受的损失额。因此，中国不会轻易放弃自己在南苏丹的阵地。

中国是喀土穆的主要政治伙伴和苏丹经济的主要投资人。国家分裂后，南苏丹拥有四分之三的石油储量。最近几年，中国是苏丹南部达尔富尔主要油田的战略投资人。

从前，为了自己在苏丹的石油利益，北京巧妙地利用了联合国。它抵制了联合国通过有关谴责达尔富尔种族屠杀的决议，中国是巴希尔总统的主要政治拥护者。南苏丹政府现在有可能会给中国记这笔账，它占达尔富尔石油开采量大约45%。

中国能源外交遇挑战

奥斯特洛夫斯基认为，北京目前对两个苏丹的能源外交正遭遇挑战，在拥有巨额资金的情况下也很难应对这一挑战。加工来自达尔富尔的石油的工厂位于喀土穆，中国和当地政府对其各自拥有一半产权。除此之外，喀土穆和朱巴不可能很快解决在石油管道、石油出海口、国界方面存在的财产争议。而且，宣布南苏丹独立并不能轻易结束持续了几十年的内战。

2012-01-31T12:39:00.000+08:00

馬來西亞是否逼近破產？

馬來西亞會否在2019年，如首相署部長依德利斯所預言的走向破產？依我之見，若現行的政策與做法，沒有徹底改變，它或將是個自我實現的預言。只是，破產主因不是依德利斯所說的生活必需品津貼（Subsidy），而是惡政劣治（Bad Governance）與腐敗！

一國何以會陷入財政困境？不同國家有不同的起因，如英美兩國是因為把私債轉為公債，假公濟私；冰島與愛爾蘭因不當地搞金融與銀行業，而被2008年金融危機波及；日本則因1989年經濟泡沫破裂後，大搞公共建設，在人煙稀少處建高速公路，大建利用率極低的基建，如大型體育館，跨海大橋等，結果是有投入沒回酬，且還要日復一日賠上管理費與維修費，使原本低於60％的國債，劇升至現階段的220％！成為世界第二，發達國家中 Number1的高債務國！

所幸的是，日本的國債有約95％為內債，且舉債率偏低，這才使其免於破產，但前景如何則難料及。希臘、意大利、西班牙等國的國債高昇，主因在於腐敗與不良治理。至於大馬，國債（聯邦政府債務）在2011年已破 4000令吉；各州政府也拖欠了聯邦好幾百億令吉。加總起來，已近5,000億令吉！

不具生產性的開銷劇增

我國官方常說，聯邦政府債務僅佔GDP的約53％，尚在控制之內，況且其中外債只佔約160多億令吉，國人大可放心。實則，若把民間部門的外債也算在內，2011年6月底為止，外債總額已高達2417億，其中，政聯公司（GLCs）便佔了約600多億。按歐盟標準，年均赤字與總債務若分別佔到GDP的3％或60％以上，便算是進入危險水平，大馬目前為53％，可說雖不達亦不遠了。

對於這個百分比，應該說，其實只是個便利指標；嚴格來說，也應考慮及其他因素，如政府的債權（而非債務而已）、內外債百分比、舉債利率、公私部門的儲蓄率、債務的用途，如是消耗性的，或是投資性、生產性的。若用低利率舉債投資於生產性活動，由於可推動經濟增長，創造就業與財富高債就不那麼可怕。實則，韓國便是靠舉高債發展起來的。這是韓國發展策略的特色。

大馬的情況則是，債務用途多是消耗性（用了就沒了，不具生產性），用途不明或搞虛而不實的大小項目。如上百億的龐大建築物，或最近的至少5000億令吉以上的捷運（MRT），這個MRT能帶來的經濟效益有限（巴生谷幅員廣，人口密度低，大馬的汽車型社會更不利客運量的培養），但卻肯定會加劇債務，進而促使政府加速推出消費稅（GST），同時削減福利，民生補貼等，導致貧富差異持續擴大。

一個簡單的事實是，這幾年來，油氣收入均佔了聯邦收入的約35％，這樣高的百分比應可使大馬人享有更廣泛的福利或政府盈餘；可事實是，這幾年的赤字均高達幾百億令吉，每年還本付息也高達約200多億。若沒發現新的大油田，隨著人口的增加與能源消耗的遞增，政府財政肯定會加速惡化。

一個基本事實是，近年來的政府「行政開支」相對固定的增長速度，已超越收入的增長速度，迫使政府縮減「發展開支」，伸言之，經濟活動日趨消耗性方向，而非生產性方向發展，更何況許多政府單位愛「報大數」。

實事求是地看，大馬的政治也日趨民粹化（Populist），短期化。朝野均忙著比派錢，用錢來收買人心，而非比政策，比政績，比理念。更令人吃驚的是，連政黨也忙著派錢給黨員！搞政治搞得如此金錢化、商業化、庸俗化，確也令人大開眼界。以我之見，馬華公會若把錢轉移給華校，其政治效應恐怕比派給黨員強得多。看來連派錢收買人心，他們也不懂「把錢花在刀口上」的道理！

大馬財政如此不必要地惡化，一方面是油氣收入來得容易，也去得容易，是所謂的油氣詛咒（OilCurse）；更根本的原因在於我國的政治生態，即「恩庇型政治文化」（Political Patronage）！若不改變這些根本毛病，可以預見，除非有奇跡出現或政策大轉彎，否則破產是遲早的事。歷史地看，從1970年至今，我國只在 1993～1997這五年間，出現過小盈餘，而何以1993、1997年會有小盈餘（介於GDP的 0～2.3%），則與民營化（Privatisation）有關。

事緣，自1971年新經濟政策（NEP）出台以來，我國便大搞公共企業，使公企從30多間快速升到1980 年代中期的近1000間，且大多數經營不善，大幅加重了政府負擔。外加上1980年代中期的衰退，政府財政更是劇升，如下表所示：

缺乏外資產業難升級

可見，大馬在1980年代，也曾出現過債務較GDP更高的破產狀況；只是，隨著馬哈迪政權大搞「利益輸送型私『盈』化」，情況才得以改善。此外，很重要的一點是，自1985年美國、英國、法國、日本、西德簽署《廣場協議》（Plaza Accord）後，日圓、台幣的幣值節節上升，日本、台灣產業也在急速轉型，逼使許多企業南下，遂使大馬獲益不淺，進入了高速增長的1989～1997階段。據知，現階段國油與40多間政聯公司（GLCs）的資產便高達6000多億令吉，其中國油佔了50%。或許脫售國營企業就是未來「以資抵債」的一個可能方式。

只是，若脫售了國營企業，或有高回酬的國有資產以資足抵債之後，政府的收入也可能劇減；且這收入不過是一次性的，反而資產脫售了，會削減政府交叉補貼（Cross-Subsidization）的財力，使其不得不節流開源，也就是加稅，並減少福利開支。果真如此，依然是普羅大眾受罪，尤其是低收入階層受打擊更深。

更嚴重的是，在區域化與全球化的時代，除非有奇跡，若否，大馬對資金的吸引力也將遞減，而產業又升不了級，結果將是不郎不秀，持續卡在「中等收入陷阱」中。顯見，不大事改革，尤其是反腐倡廉與良政善治，財富的大量不當流失、漏失（Leakage），只會加速國家破產。而流失與漏失當然就是失血的主因。

一國若破產，其後果不外是：政府大印鈔票，製造高通膨來抵消債務；以高利率舉新債還舊債；債留子孫；加稅減開支，尤其是福利開支；貨幣貶值以求抑止進口，促進出口；內部貶值（Internal Devaluation），也就是全面降低生活水平，大調薪資、物價以待再出發；出售國有資產，或讓債主以股權抵債（Debtfor Equity）的方式入股國營企業；要求債主減債減息；或若是內債，乾脆一筆勾銷，從新開始，也就是要求債權人「犧牲小我，成全國家」。

有道是「天下沒有白吃的午餐」，借來的是債，而非創造出來的財富，遲早得連本帶息還回去。顯見，最明智的出路就是，在尚未無可救藥時，進行「先發制人」的必要改革，以求突圍。

2012-01-31T12:32:00.002+08:00

An Inconvenient Truth For

Tree Hugging Hippies

The Dirty Truth: Some Biofuels are More Polluting than Fossil Fuels

Biofuels are a clean, alternative energy that many are hoping will become the next source of liquid fuels for internal combustion engines; a clean substitute for polluting fossil fuels. The US is a huge supporter of biofuels, last year producing 1 billion gallons (China, a Kyoto Treaty signatory, doing 2.1millions) , and the EU has also stated its intentions for 10% of all transport fuel to be biofuel by 2020.

Wait a minute though, new data obtained from a leak by the European Commission provides evidence that not all biofuels are clean. In fact some are more polluting than fossil fuels.

The EU proposed a default value of 107g CO2 equivalent per megajoule of fuel (CO2/mj) for oil from tar sands, as compared to 87.5g CO2/mj for crude oil. Following is a list of the equivalent values for biofuels:

• Palm Oil - 105g
• Soybean – 103g
• Rapeseed – 95g
• Sunflower – 86g
• Palm Oil with methane capture – 83g
• Wheat (process fuel not specified) – 64g
• Wheat (as process fuel natural gas used in CHP) – 47g
• Corn (Maize) – 43g
• Sugar Cane – 36g
• Sugar Beet – 34g
• Wheat (straw as process fuel in CHP plants) – 35g
• 2G Ethanol (land-using) – 32g
• 2G Biodiesel (land-using) – 21g
• 2G Ethanol (non-land using) – 9g
• 2G Biodiesel (non-land using) – 9g

It is obvious that for a biofuel to be useful in cutting the emissions driving global warming it needs to have a smaller carbon footprint than regular fuel from crude oil. However calculating the carbon emissions of a biofuel must also include the natural forests and wetlands that are destroyed in the construction of plantations to grow the crops. Taking this into account it is immediately clear that palm oil and soy beans are unsupportable as sources of biofuel. Wheat, maize and sugar do little better than crude oil and are therefore not likely to solve our climate issues either. Second generation (2G), non-land using fuels are obviously the best. These include the waste-to-energy fuel sources, a sector that is steadily growing as more and more plants are constructed.

Robbie Blake, biofuels campaigner, at Friends of the Earth Europe, said, "It's getting quite indisputable that the use of soy or palm oil to fuel our cars is even dirtier than conventional fossil fuels. Forests in Asia and South America are being destroyed by the expansion of plantations to meet the European market. It's a delusion for politicians to think that biodiesel will solve climate change."

Biofuels remain vital to tackling climate change, but the difficulty now exists in identifying what constitutes a good biofuel. These figures help us to immediately recognise the best and worse, but they don’t give us any idea as to the cost of production. It is all well and good saying we should use 2G non-land using biofuels, but would we be willing to pay the higher price at the pumps? Perhaps the answer will be in the development of biofuels from algae and seaweed.

2012-01-31T12:17:00.000+08:00

中国是有原则的大国 -

把菲律宾进行经济制裁当“出头鸟”惩罚

在马尼拉表示愿意允许美国增派驻军菲律宾之后，北京方面周日呼吁有关国家要为地区“和平与稳定”努力。

菲律宾政府周五表示，计划邀请更多的美军参与联合军事演习，并希望美军可以更多地在菲律宾轮番驻军；美国方面表示愿意增加与菲律宾的军事合作。
中国外交部在周日发表的一份声明中表示，“希望有关方面能更多致力于地区的和平与稳定”。

“制裁菲律宾”？

中国政府方面相对温和的态度与《环球时报》周日发表的一篇语气强硬的社评形成较鲜明的对比。

中国官媒《环球时报》发表了题为《把菲律宾当“出头鸟”惩罚》的社评，称菲律宾正在大步滑向美国在亚太重新战略布局的棋子，而“菲律宾是中国‘枪打出头鸟’的合适对象。

文章还呼吁中国政府适时对菲律宾进行经济制裁。

社评还表示，中国不是帝国，所以不会随意对周边在军事上兴师问罪。但中国是有原则的大国，决不接受小国拉域外大国增加本地区军事紧张，甚至以小欺大。谁触犯中国的原则，谁就必须付出相应的代价。

南中国海角力

中国、台湾与菲律宾、越南、文莱、马来西亚等一些国家对南中国海岛礁的归属存在主权争议。

南中国海不但是重要的海上商路要冲，也蕴藏着丰富的油气资源。

越南和菲律宾近来连续指责中国在地区的采用“暴力扩张”手段，并纷纷争取美国的军事援助。

美国政府正致力于恢复和扩展在整个亚太地区势力范围，也至少已经表示愿意对菲律宾提供军事援助。

作为美国总统奥巴马的新亚太战略的一部分，美国将向北澳大利亚增派2500名海军陆战队，并增派作战舰船到新加坡。

2012-01-31T12:12:00.001+08:00

She's Leaving Home - Motown Version

http://tinyurl.com/ShesLeavingHomeMotownMashUp

She's Leaving Home (McCartney/Lennon) remixed and rearranged by brazillian songwriter/producer Luciano Albo, using multitrack masters from Sgt Peppers and What's Going On (Marvin Gaye/Motown)

www.myspace.com/lucianoalbo

2012-01-31T12:09:00.002+08:00

Elvis' "Suspicious Mind" In Real Life

"We Can't Go On Together with Suspicious Minds, Because Were Leveraged too Much Baby"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hdmIhCkp3p4

2012-01-31T12:08:00.000+08:00

为什么许多拒绝与中国做生意 ?

RBS拒绝了一家中资银行对其旗下飞机租赁业务的较高出价

据知情人士透露，苏格兰皇家银行(RBS)拒绝了一家中资银行对其旗下飞机租赁业务的较高出价，原因是担心这家国有银行无法完成交易。

RBS两周前以73亿美元的价格，将旗下世界第七大租赁公司RBS Aviation Capital出售给了三井住友金融集团(Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group)。中国国家开发银行(CDB)的出价比三井住友高2.4亿美元。 RBS的选择与外界的普遍猜测不谋而合——人们猜测，中国会趁欧洲各银行有麻烦的时候，在欧洲和亚洲大量购买资产。

知情人士表示，RBS之所以排除国开行，至少部分原因在于，担心中国的监管部门不会批准这笔交易，且国开行的人很少造访RBS Aviation Capital总部，令其不满。RBS的一个人说：
“中国人老不露面。”

RBS表示，它选择了整体条件最为优厚的竞购者，不但要考虑最终的出价，还要考虑完成交易的能力。

国开行是中国三大所谓的政策性银行之一。政策性银行是指不吸纳散户存款、专门根据政府政策侧重点提供贷款的金融机构。

国开行成立的初衷是专门为国内大型基建工程提供支持，比如三峡大坝工程。

然而，近年来，国开行扩展了业务范围，向一些国家的政府提供了数十亿美元的贷款，资金部分来源于中国3.18万亿美元的外汇储备。该行迄今为止最引人注目的一笔投资，是2007年收购巴克莱资本(Barclays Capital) 3%的股权。

金融危机期间，国开行还曾希望收购花旗集团(Citigroup)部分股权。但对其收购巴克莱股权已然持批评态度的中国监管机构和高级官员，否决了该交易。国开行没有回应记者的置评请求。

日本的一些银行可能会成为欧洲银行陷入困境最大的受益者之一。

三菱UFJ金融集团(Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group)收购了RBS的项目融资业务，而三井住友从爱尔兰银行(Bank of Ireland)买进了一大笔贷款组合，交易价为贷款总额的85%，以美元出价。

包括瑞穗(Mizuho)、农林中央金库(Norinchukin)在内的一些日本银行，也是法国农业信贷银行(Crédit Agricole)在亚洲出售的一些贷款的最大买家。

2012-01-31T12:04:00.002+08:00

The History Of This Classic Beatles Song:

She's Leaving Home

The picture of Melanie Coe that ran with the original runaway story - "I cannot imagine why she should run away, she has everything here."

Available on: (CDs in bold)
Sgt. Pepper's Lonely Hearts Club Band (UK: Parlophone PMC 7027, PCS 7027; Capitol (S)MAS 2653; Parlophone CDP 7 46442 2)
Love Songs (UK: Parlophone PCSP 721, US: Capitol SKBL 11711)
History:

This song -- an idea by Paul, but worked on with John, just like in the early years -- was inspired by a February 27th, 1967 headline in the UK newspaper Daily Mail which read "A-Level Girl Dumps Car and Vanishes." It told the story of one Melanie Coe, a 17-year-old female "straight-A" student from a wealthy family who'd suddenly disappeared, seduced by the club scene of swinging London. Paul read the story, picking up on a line from her father: "I cannot imagine why she should run away, she has everything here." He realized it was a great idea for a song, but also spotted the generation gap at work -- the prevailing idea of the postwar free world that money could literally buy happiness, which was steadily being rejected by youths in both Europe and America.
The song was written quickly, with John providing much of the chorus; not only did he suggest singing the title in extended phrases, he also came up with the idea of the Greek chorus-like backing vocals echoing the parents' confusion. (Most notable was John's idea to end "We gave her everything money could buy" with the answering phrase "...bye, bye.")
As this song, like "Eleanor Rigby," needed no backing from the band at all, the recording of "She's Leaving Home" was extremely simple, especially by Sgt. Pepper standards; Paul simply went to the studio on March 17, 1967, with an arrangement for the small orchestra he intended to use. Unfortunately, producer George Martin had been unable to score it, having already been booked by manager Brian Epstein for a Cilla Black session, so Paul called in another arranger named Mike Leander and had him write one. (This upset Martin, but he soon got over it -- "She's Leaving Home" is the only Beatles song with an orchestral score he didn't write, with the exception of Phil Spector's remixes of "Across the Universe", "Let It Be", "I Me Mine" and "The Long and Winding Road," done after the Beatles were essentially dissolved.) Nine takes were done, but the first was judged best, and three days later, Paul and John laid down backing vocals.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Arbcgt2Klc

Trivia:

In one of the stranger coincidences in Beatle history, Paul had met Melanie Coe, the subject of his song, years earlier, though he didn't realize it when writing "She's Leaving Home." The popular Coe had entered a lip-syncing contest on the ITV musical variety show Ready Steady Go! in 1963; Paul, as the judge, named her the winner and presented her with her prize. It was only in the mid-'70s, when she saw a TV interview with McCartney about the making of Pepper, that she realized the song had been about her.
Coe never met "a man from the motor trade" but rather abandoned her car and belongings to move in with a croupier from a nearby casino. Unfortunately, she made the mistake of telling the wrong person where he worked, and after the father called the croupier's boss, she was back home within a week. As far as Melanie was concerned, however, this changed nothing, and before long she'd run away again, this time to marry a gentleman from Spain. After a year that marriage went sour, and Coe flew to California to live in an ashram. She eventually wound up on the Hollywood scene, dating several celebrities, including Burt Ward, who played Robin in the original ABC-TV Batman series. She returned to London in 1981 to care for her mother, who was now dying -- and there met the man she would be with ever since. They live in Spain, where she handles estate planning.
The stereo mix of "She's Leaving Home" was, for some reason, slowed down quite a bit from the original session tapes, so much so that the "original" mono mix is in the key of F and the stereo take in the key of E.
Mike Leander would go directly from this career-making appearance into scoring the Rolling Stones' hit cover of Marianne Faithfull's "As Tears Go By." He would later become even better known for co-writing and producing Gary Glitter's big hits, including "Rock and Roll (Part 2)."
The "man from the motor trade" was thought by many to be a sly allusion to Brian Epstein's business partner Terry Doran, who indeed owned car dealerships with him. This, however, was just a product of McCartney's imagination. Aside from that detail, however, and the fact that the escape happened in the afternoon and not the morning, Melanie now says that the song captured her emotions and the situation itself perfectly -- almost unnaturally so.

Covered by: Harry Nilsson, Bryan Ferry, Tori Amos, Richie Havens, Cheap Trick, Ofra Harnoy, Al Jarreau, Syreeta (Stevie Wonder's wife on Motown - a great version) , Tom Scott, Rick Wakeman, Billy Bragg, Godhead, Cal Tjader, Joel Grey, Mr. Acker Bilk, David Benoit, David and Jonathan, The Baja Marimba Band, Steve Barton, Roupa Nova, Tony Osborne, London Pops Orchestra, Welsh National Orchestra, Lana Cantrell, Tok Tok Tok, Barnaby Bye, Andy Ezrin, Joe Faggin, The Grimms, Erick Saint-Laurent, Brad Mehklau Trio

Written by: Paul McCartney (50%), John Lennon (50%)
Recorded: March 17 and 20, 1967 (Studio 2, Abbey Road Studios, London, England)
Mixed: March 20, April 17, 1967
Length: 2:57
Takes: 9
Musicians:
John Lennon: lead and backing vocals
Paul McCartney: lead and backing vocals
Erich Gruenberg, Derek Jacobs, Trevor Williams, Jose Luis Garcia: violins
John Underwood, Stephen Shingles: violas
Alan Dalziel, Dennis Vigay: cellos
Gordon Pearce: bass violin
Sheila Bromberg: harp

2012-01-29T13:00:00.001+08:00

KCPO - It Is Sell Again But Keep Trading Very Short Term - 1/30/2012

The market went for another sell signal as the Stochastic crosses down again and price went below the lower band. If you had taken this signal, I would advise tighter stop should be placed as the ADX is still falling. It is now at 14's. With this kind of level, I would keep all trades very short term, taking out profit as it goes along rather than waiting for indicators to reverse. This is to say, if you think a 50 points profit is good for you, then just take it. Unless I see the D- goes above its 30's level, I would just keep on this profit taking approach.

Now that all the 3 indicators are in a negative mode, that should at least put some comfort to your sell position. As there is no major bearish pattern or formation found at the daily chart, so I would just trade any new directions and would not get too bearish/bullish inclined.

The weekly chart Stochastic seems to be turning around. A negative cross down would be taken as a sell signal as price has already gone below the upper band. The ADX continues to fall , it is now at 16's. This is also complimenting the daily chart's lack of trend.

Just like the FKLI, maybe the market is waiting for the coming holidays to pass over before taking a new direction.

2012-01-29T12:56:00.000+08:00

FKLI - More Drifting For Now But Watch Out For Storm Ahead - 1/30/2012

Same as last week's reading:- positive Stochastic and negative MACD, flat ADX at 10's and a wiggling DMI, all confirming a listless market. Now that even the Bollinger Band has begun to squeeze with prices stuck within the band. I would NOT trade this market at this moment but I would pay close attention as some explosive move should be coming soon across the horizon.
Though theoretically the next explosive move could be of either direction, but I take note the presence of a bearish divergence at the indicators, so I would be more inclined to bet on the sell side.

The weekly chart's Stochastic and MACD continue to rise. But as the ADX continues to fall which is confirming the lack of trend in this market. I would pay attention to a possible reversal of the Stochastic. Its crossing below the 80's level accompanied with a price closing below the top band will offer a new sell signal.

And because of more holidays in the coming weeks, so I think the market should continue to drift before the real action kicks in. Fundamental news that came out recently that warrant your attention would be the great number of credit cards reduced but the amount owed still continue to rise. Also the Bank Negara's new rulings on car HP limits. And I have been wondering when the Bank Negara is going to pour some cold water over the vision impaired property bulls. Though the top politicians and officialdom keep on telling us that we should not worry too much about the EU crisis, but if you pay attention at what they have been doing, you would know - yes, we should be worried.

2012-01-29T01:15:00.000+08:00

TRANSPARENCY Is Good

2012-01-29T01:12:00.000+08:00

How to Dress Like

Marvin Gaye

Even for the most skilled dressers, assembling a killer outfit sometimes requires a little more inspiration than the average online shopping experience provides. Enter Roxana Altamirano, the genius behind Nerd Boyfriend, the style blog that offers step-by-step instructions for re-creating ensembles worn by icons ranging from Paul Newman to Harrison Ford. Now she's guest blogging on details.com every week. Have a hero you want to see featured? Leave a note in the comments and we'll see what we can do.

As vintage Americana style continues to rise in popularity, it's only appropriate to pay tribute to one of its earliest modern pioneers, Marvin Gaye. He crafted a captivating style in the seventies by combining country roots with eccentric adornments and colors, such as the memorable "Let's Get It On" single-cover outfit of a denim shirt and a red knit cap. In this 1973 photo, he sticks with the denim and knit cap and elevates the rugged style by adding a classic white tee, work boots, and high wool socks.

The Real McCoys Champion USA Tee (pricey, but totally worth it)

Aubin and Wills Double Knitted Cap

Levis Vintage Clothing 1947 Denim

Chippewa 8-Inch Logger Boots

2012-01-29T01:09:00.000+08:00

The 10 Best Selling Cars

Of All Time

The most successful car in history may be the Ford Model T. While other models may have sold more vehicles, Ford managed to sell nearly 17 million cars from 1908 to 1927 — a period when car ownership was rare compared to today.

The Model T was so successful that nearly every other best-selling car adopted its formula. The Model T was inexpensive to buy, inexpensive to operate, reliable and built by a large company that had hundreds of dealerships and trained mechanics.
The other vehicles on this list, from the VW Passat to the Toyota Corolla, share all of these characteristics. The best-selling cars through history have appealed to a broad buyer base because they are within the reach of the masses.
The best-selling vehicles have several other notable features in common. For one, the majority were introduced just before or around the same time that gas prices began to rise rapidly in the early 1970s, primarily because of the Arab oil embargo.
Car companies offered 4-cylinder, light and fuel-efficient cars that allowed people to drive without badly hurting household budgets. Many of these cars continue to sell well today as gas prices are relatively high around the world.
Many of these cars also are manufactured and sold around the world. The Beetle is sold in the U.S. and Europe. The Passat is built in both the U.S. and China. Several of the best-selling cars from Japan are sold in most major countries around the world. Once a car proved its appeal with consumers, it made economic sense for a manufacturer to use the same base chassis and engine at plants on different continents.
24/7 Wall St. looked at best-selling car data from a number of sources. The sources included major media outlets that cover the auto industry, research firms, and car companies that keep lists of their own best-selling cars.

10. Chevy Impala (1958 – )

Sales: 14 million
Parent: General Motors (NYSE: GM)
Price: $25,760 (most recent)
Type: mid-priced V6 coupe

GM, the world’s largest car company, only has one vehicle on the list of the best-selling cars in history. That is probably because GM is a holding company with a number of brands. The Impala is also unique on the list because it is a fairly large 2-door coupe. It was even built with a huge 8-cylinder engine for a period, which made it the equivalent of many sports cars. In the early 1960s, Chevy added a 4-door model to increase the appeal of the vehicle to people who wanted a roomier backseat. The versatility of the Impala was broadened when most early models came in both hardtop and convertible. The car has been through 10 generations of major upgrades. The most recent will be offered as a 2014 model. The 2-door version of the Impala, which was the only model of its first generation, is gone.

9. Passat (1973 – )

Sales: 15.5 million
Parent: Volkswagen
Price: $19,995 (most recent)
Type: mid-priced 5 cylinder 4 door

The Passat has a 5-cylinder engine, rare among cars. It provides relatively good fuel mileage along with moderate acceleration. The Passat is priced just above the Jetta sedan and below the VW CC turbo sedan. The Passat is an unusual car because the product sold in the U.S. is very similar to the one sold by Shanghai Volkswagen Automotive in China, the world’s largest car market. VW has placed a great deal of its emphasis on the Passat, hoping it would help it grow its modest U.S. sales. The car competes with a number of mid-sized sedans sold by the Big Three and major Japanese manufacturers. VW understands that the sale of sedans, which can be used by both individual drivers and families, is critical if it is to enlarge its market share.

8. Model T (1908 – 1927)

Sales: 16.5 million
Parent: Ford
Price: $260 (1920s)
Type: first mass-production sedan

The Model T is as well known for what it did for American manufacturing as what it did for American consumers. Henry Ford created the modern assembly line to make the Model T. The demand for the car, which was inexpensive by early 20th century standards, spurred Ford’s founder to set up a factory system so cars could move from one workstation to the next with a worker at each station adding one major part to the car. The assembly line allowed Ford to employ thousands of people in its Detroit area factories at relatively high wages. The other major effect of the Model T is that it made car owners out of millions of Americans. The early versions of the car sold for well under $1,000, later versions sold for under $300.

7. Accord (1976 – )

Sales: 17.5 million
Parent: Honda
Price: $21,380 (most recent)
Type: inexpensive 4 cylinder mid-sized sedan

The Accord is Honda’s mid-sized car. It is larger and more expensive than the Civic, but less expensive than the Japanese car company’s line of crossovers and hybrids. The Accord benefited from the rise in oil and gas prices in the early 1970s. It was first sold in Japan and then imported to the U.S. It was one of the first Japanese cars built in the America, beginning in 1981. The car has been so successful that it has gone through nine generations of upgrades and changes, the most recent for the 2013 model year. The base car of each generation has had a 4-cylinder engine at, or under, 2 liters to ensure fuel efficiency. Like many of the least expensive sedans sold by all of the major car companies, the Accord can be purchased with a number of options and even an upgraded 6-cylinder engine for more power and acceleration. The top-of-the-line Accord has a base price of nearly $30,000.

6. Civic (1972 – )

Sales: 18.5 million
Parent: Honda (NYSE: HMC)
Price: $15,605 (most recent)
Type: inexpensive 4-cylinder sedan

Before the Civic’s 1972 debut, Honda was primarily known for its motorcycles. The car is now one of the most popular models in America. The Civic is Honda’s low-end, light-weight, fuel-efficient offering. The base model sells for only $15,605, gets 39 MPG on the highway, and has a 4-cylinder engine. Honda offers customers of the Civic a large number of features, which can increase the price of the car. But Honda keeps a common platform to save money. There are currently hybrid models of the car, and one that operates on natural gas. The natural gas version, with a few options, sells for more than $30,000. The Civic is another example of a tiny, fuel-efficient car that gained sales traction in the U.S. when fuel prices soared in the early 1970s. The basic car has been modified and substantially upgraded nine times since the first Civic came off the assembly line.

5. Escort (1968 – 2000)

Sales: 20 million
Parent: Ford
Price: $11,950 (2000)
Type: inexpensive 4-cylinder 2-door/4-door

The Escort was a small, fuel-efficient car introduced in England in 1967 and then throughout much of Europe over the following two years. The vehicle was Ford’s answer to the army of small cars made by European manufacturers like Fiat, Renault and VW. All were meant to use little gas and be cheap to operate. Most Escorts have small engines of less than 2 liters. This was enough to power 2-door, 3-door and 4-door versions of the car in a region in which gas is usually very expensive. There were six generations of Escorts. Each version offered more options and larger engines than the one before it. The Escort was replaced by the Ford Focus. A car called the Escort was sold in the U.S. from 1981 to 2003, but its great success was in Europe. That new car, sold in the U.S., unrelated in its design, is not counted here.

4. Beetle (1933 – )

Sales: 23.5 million through 2011
Parent: Volkswagen
Price: $19,795 (most recent)
Type: inexpensive rear-engine 4-cylinder

The Beetle is VW’s flagship. Launched eight decades ago, following orders by Adolf Hitler for a family-sized “people’s car,” it was designed by sports car enthusiast Ferdinand Porsche. The vehicle has changed very little since the 1940s. It is unusual among economy cars because its engine is in its rear and is air cooled. The Beetle also comes with a diesel engine, which is a rarity among passenger cars. New diesel engines get mileage similar to hybrids. The current version of the Beetle sold in the U.S. has a small 2.5 liter, 4-cylinder engine and sells for under $20,000. To appeal to more upscale buyers and those who want better engine performance, VW offers a Turbo-powered model for nearly $30,000. VW must regret it did not market the Beetle more aggressively in the U.S. when it was among the best-selling small cars in the U.S. Japanese models and a move by the Big Three to offer fuel-efficient vehicles pushed the Beetle nearly out of the U.S. market.

3. Golf (1974 – )

Sales: 27.5 million
Parent: Volkswagen
Price: $17,995 (most recent)
Type: inexpensive 4-cylinder sedan

The Golf is VW’s least expensive compact car. When it debuted in 1974, it was originally called the Rabbit in America, and was intended to be the Beetle’s successor. Like several of the other cars on this list, it is built to be within the budgets of millions of people, as well as inexpensive to operate after purchase. The popularity of the Golf, Beetle and Passat has helped drive VW to the number two car manufacturer in the world for 2011. The Golf sells for less than $18,000 in the U.S. The base model is a 2-door with a 4-cylinder, 2.5 liter engine. VW still lags every major global manufacturer in U.S. sales. It has counted on the Golf to help close that gap. But last year it only sold 324,000 cars (all models) in the U.S., which gave it a 2.2% market share — a disappointing performance for a multinational that sold over 8.1 million vehicles worldwide.

2. F-Series (1948 – )

Ford F-150

Sales: 35 million
Parent: Ford (NYSE: F)
Price: $22,990 (most recent)
Type: Pickup

The F-Series has been America’s best-selling full-body pickup for more than 30 years. It certainly has faced significant competition over the years, especially from the Dodge Ram, Chevy Silverado and GM Sierra, which are all built by Chrysler and GM. More recently, other competitors entered the market, such as Honda with its Ridgeline, Toyota with its Tundra, and Nissan with its Titan. But none has been able to drop the F-Series from its spot at the top of the pickup market. One of the strengths of the F-Series is that it comes in so many models that have a broad appeal across a wide set of customers. The base F-150 costs less than $23,000. Larger models are used in the construction and farm business. These have engines with outputs of well over 300 horsepower and dual rear tires. The F-450 Super Duty King Ranch has a sticker price of $63,615.

1. Corolla (1966 – )

Sales: 37.5 million
Parent: Toyota (NYSE: TM)
Price: $16,130 (most recent)
Type: inexpensive 4-cylinder sedan

The Corolla has been the flagship of the world’s third-largest car company for more than four decades. The car has gone through 10 generations of model upgrades. It was the perfect car for Japan when it was introduced — small and fuel efficient. It was a perfect car for America when oil and gas prices soared and then fluctuated after the early 1970s oil embargo. The car always has been outfitted with a small 4-cylinder engine. The current base motor output is 132 horsepower and gets as much as 35 MPG. Ironically, an even more fuel-efficient car — the Toyota Prius hybrid — outsold the Corolla in Japan in 2010.

2012-01-29T01:03:00.000+08:00

Canada Prepares For Inevitable U.S. Invasion !!!!

Flush With Oil From Alberta, Canada Prepares For Inevitable U.S. Invasion

OTTAWA, ON—It’s a subject the Canadian military high command doesn’t like to discuss, but one that’s taken on an increasing sense of urgency since the discovery of massive oil reserves in the Alberta tar sands: how to defend Canada from imminent U.S. invasion.

A highly-placed military source in the Harper government, speaking off the record, confirmed that Canada is actively preparing for an American attack. “Look, we can all see the pattern here: if a country has significant oil reserves, the United States will find a pretext to invade. Iraq, Libya—frankly, it’s either us or Iran next,” he said.
“We don’t know if the pretext will be our treatment of First Peoples, Tim Horton’s entry into the New England market, or the preemptive fight to free the world from another Justin Bieber, but believe me: the Yanks are coming,” the official added

A U.S. State Department spokesperson, Edward Voreck, would neither confirm nor deny that the U.S. had plans to invade, but he did express concerns about the state of democracy in Canada. “The recent tainted elections of [Prime Minister Stephen] Harper and [Toronto Mayor Rob] Ford – the former by the discovery that the Conservative leader was in fact made entirely of copper tubing, the latter by excessive amounts of hot dog grease – show that the peace-loving citizens of Canada are suffering under the jack boot of totalitarian regimes that do not represent their best interests.”

“If the Canadian people ask us, the United States has a moral obligation to intervene and preserve freedom in this God-forsaken, backwards part of the world that just happens to be rich in natural resources,” Voreck added.

The response from the Canadian side was swift and unequivocal: “If anyone is going to completely destroy the pristine beauty of our glorious Canada in search of non-renewable polluting fossil fuels, it will be Canadian oil companies with help from our allies the People’s Republic of China--not the running dogs of U.S. imperialism,” proclaimed Stephen Harper at a hastily arranged news conference.

“Our Mounties stand ready to drive your forces back into Montana, and mark my words: they will be very polite about it,” Harper added.

2012-01-26T11:42:00.000+08:00

"China Blasted US Over Its Debts" - Now US Can Go Tell China To Fuck Themselves ?

A Surprising Country Is Leading The World In Deleveraging

America is sinking deeper and deeper into a debt crisis, right?

Believe it or not this common wisdom is flat out wrong.

America's total debt to GDP ratio has decreased 16% since 2008, leading the developed world in deleveraging, according to a new McKinsey report. Total debt, including all loans and fixed-income securities of households, corporations, financial institutions and government, is down even if government debt is up.

"American banks, firms, and households have been chipping away at their debts, more than offsetting Washington’s double-digit deficits," writes the Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard.

The United States is the closest of all developed countries to moving into the growth phase of deleveraging, according to McKinsey. South korea and Australia were the only other countries to reduce their debt-to-GDP ratio.

Relative strength, however, does not mean that America has dodged the crisis. Mike Shedlock takes issue with Evans-Pritchard:

The US has not started government debt deleveraging and until that is nearly finished there will not be light at the end of the tunnel, let alone the end of the crisis. Optimistically, the best one can possibly assert is one can possibly see light at the end of the "consumer tunnel". The government tunnel immediately follows.

Here's McKinsey's chart:

2012-01-26T11:34:00.002+08:00

"很多香港人是狗 ?" (5) - 孔庆东是个二五仔

89学运任高自联常委

原本在香港寂寂无闻的孔庆东即时被起底，原来他在1989年曾参与学运，是发起学生罢课的高自联常委，一度与学运领袖王丹并肩作战。大陆网民对孔在六四后竟没被秋后算账、还当上北大教授大感奇怪，疑他当年写下悔过书自保。

孔庆东评港人

孔庆东的狂言在本港及大陆引起热烈讨论，有大陆学者在微博上留言反驳孔的歪理，但也有不少人讚孔骂港人骂得有理。香港网民则一面倒「反孔」，发起今天下午 3时到中联办散步放狗的facebook群组，仅两天便有逾1.5万个like。有网民把孔的样貌恶搞成一隻狗，有大陆网民指被謔称「孔叫兽」（普通话『孔教授』谐音）的孔庆东是北大之耻。
代表在北大就读香港学生的北京大学香港文化会会长莫介邦昨称，会方拟日内发公开信，批评孔的言论过份，指其言论不代表北大师生。他说，孔骂港人是狗有片為证，不容抵赖，「据我亲身感受，大陆人唔会觉得香港人好叻，但亦唔会敌视香港人」。

「孔和尚」本名孔慶東，在內地一直是爭議人物。

他自稱是孔子第七十三代孫子，身為北京大學中文系教授，經常在網上發表激烈言論，曾於韓國任教，卻大力吹捧朝鮮。畢業於北大中文系的孔慶東人稱「北大醉俠」，一九六四年於哈爾濱出生。在六四事件中，是北京「高自聯」的常委之一，後來受到官方整肅，九十年代末成為魯迅崇拜者，以雜文載譽文壇。

不少人不滿他身為北大學者，言行卻似流氓地痞。但孔慶東依然故我，語不驚人誓不休，曾發表「記者不如妓女」、「沒有強拆就沒有新中國」及「縣委書記不強拆，知識分子吃甚麼？」等驚人言論。

孔慶東經常指責南方報業集團為「漢奸媒體」，又曾宣稱「記者現在是我們國家一大公害」。孔慶東還是孔子和平獎的十六位評委之一，亦曾公開批評諾貝爾和平獎「變味了」。

2012-01-25T12:14:00.000+08:00

New World Oil Demand Blasts Past Old World

Oil demand is markedly different in the old world, which refers to the U.S., western Europe and Japan; and the new world, which is identified as the rest of the world, according to Ed Yardeni.

Crude oil use in the old world has slipped back to the recession lows of 2009, while demand in the new world surged to 51.5 million barrels per day last year, according to Yardeni. New world oil demand grew 2.8% in 2011, compared with a 1.2% decline in the old world. In fact, new world oil demand now exceeds old world demand by 36%.

Unsurprisingly, oil demand was the lowest in Western Europe, falling to the lowest level since the end of 1994.

Here's a chart that shows the different trajectories that old and new world oil demand are on.

2012-01-25T12:03:00.001+08:00

China Will Be Richer Than America Soon !

2012-01-25T11:44:00.000+08:00

The slumdogs of New York: the squalor and deprivation endured by immigrant families in an unrecognisable 19th century America

It is a window into the squalor, deprivation and poverty of a bygone age.

This city of sweat shops, shanty towns and slums is an unrecognisable New York, captured, in black and white, as the 19th century wound to a close.
Newly arrived immigrants slept 12 to a room, while street children roamed the alleys and tenement blocks of a Third World downtown Manhattan.

Cold night: Three young street children huddle together over a grate for warmth in an alleyway off Mulberry Street, Manhattan

Crime reporter and reformer Jacob Riis took advantage of the newly-invented flash photography to document the city’s dark side in these incredible pictures of slum life among the immigrant underclass.

In one heart-wrenching picture three small barefoot children huddle together for warmth over a grating. Others show street children huddling close together for warmth, or working the streets as shoeshines and beggars.

For many immigrants the new life was a tough one- some of the streets where they had made their home were notorious for violent crime.

During Riis's late-night visits to the slums, the new medium of flash startled people but managed to capture the chaos of poverty as it had never before been seen in photographs.

Harsh conditions: A young girl, holding a baby, sits in a doorway next to a garbage can. Riis was a great reformer and his work helped to draw attention to the plight of the deprived

Shades of the Wild West: In an astonishingly atmospheric image taken in 1887, a group of men loiter in an alley known as 'Bandit's Roost' off Mulberry Street

Slumdogs: The sight of Italian immigrant families in New York on Jersey Street, living in shacks could be a scene from the developing world today

Shanty town: A dilapidated wooden shack sits in an empty lot surrounded by tenement buildings in 1896

Living on the edge: View of a back-lot house on Bleecker Street between Mercer and Greene Streets, almost toppling into an excavation site

Unfettered squalor: An Italian immigrant smokes a pipe in his makeshift home under the Rivington Street Dump

As these images show, there were moments of light relief. Riis also captured the city’s poorest at leisure - playing ball, breaking the incessant gloom with a few tunes on the fiddle or splashing about in the bathhouse on the Hudson River.

At times Riis also documents the other side of New York - the white picket fences, the prim schoolgirls.

Makeshift home: A man sorts through trash under the 47th Street dump where he has made his home in around 1890
Hard labour: In a picture taken in 1890 a Bohemian family of four roll cigars at home in their tenement. Working from six in the morning till nine at night, they earn $3.75 for a thousand cigars, and between them could turn out three thousand cigars a week

Working till they dropped: Mrs Benoit, a Native American widow, sews and beads while smoking a pipe in her Hudson Street apartment, New York City, while right, a dishevelled shoeshine boy named Tommy takes a break from business

Handiwork: A Native American, Mountain Eagle, and his family make handicrafts while one son plays violin in their tenement at 6 Beach Street in this image taken in 1895

Riis's celebrated 1890 work of early photojournalism, How the Other Half Lives, brought to public attention the desperate lives of urban immigrants and created a place for him in photographic history, according to The New York Times.
A Danish immigrant who became a police reporter, Riis was an evangelical, a conservative, and a reformer who wanted to improve conditions in the congested slums.

He arrived in the U.S. in 1870, having left Denmark as a carpenter’s apprentice, and began life in New York as a casual worker, later working as a crime reporter for The New York Tribune.
He did not take his first photograph until 1888, more than ten years after he began work as a reporter and he stopped taking photos four years later, the New York Times said.

Line up: A group of prisoners in striped suits and hats at The Lock-step Penitentiary on Blackwell's Island around 1890

Feast day: A shrine in 'Bandits Roost', between Mulberry Street and Mulberry Bend, Little Italy, during the feast of Saint Rocco on the 23rd May, 1895. Right, a real mulberry tree behind an early building, presumably the original dwelling in the area of Mulberry Bend

Getting an education: One girl laughs with delight at having her photo taken as street children get the chance to read at a library at 48 Henry Street, New York City in 1900

Alley playground: Children play with barrels under the washing hung between tenements in Gotham Court, Cherry Street around 1890

Nature class: Teachers show primary school children how to plant seeds in a plot of land in New York. This picture was taken in about 1900

Freshly landscaped: New Yorkers enjoy the open space of the newly-planted Mulberry Bend Park in 1900

Team spirit: A group portrait of a football team posing in front of a fence at the West Side Playground, 68th Street, in 1895

Shopping in the sunshine: A grocery shop and post office on Mulberry Street in Little Italy, around 1890

Snowy New York: Warmly wrapped up children play in front of Dewitt Church, 280 Rivington Street, in 1890

Playtime: Riis also captured the city at leisure. Three girls jump rope while a group of children and adults form a semicircle around them on the rooftop playground of the Hebrew Institute

Bathing beauties: Children swim under the supervision of adults at Public Bath #10, at the Hudson River

Urban playground: Schoolboys play with a ball on the rooftop playground

Slumdwellers salute: Children of Mott Street Industrial School, New York, salute the Stars and Stripes, and repeat the Oath of Allegiance

Waiting for delivery: Children holding American flags while riding tricycles and wagons on the rooftop garden of Ellis Island were the offspring of detained or waiting immigrants

While Riis saved all his papers diligently, he took little care over his photographs which were for him mere accompaniments to his written work and lectures.

Only in the 1940s, when photographers tracked down Riis’s youngest son and asked him to search the attic of the family home, were the pictures found.

The Museum of the City of New York has a substantial collection of Riis’s photographs.

2012-01-25T11:40:00.002+08:00

Remembering Etta James

Etta James has died at age 73 in Southern California where she was born.

The California blues superstar has lost her battle with leukemia, Alzheimer's, kidney disease and Hepatitis-C, and the family of Etta James was by her side until the very end.

Etta James' manager, Lupe De Leon, had previously announced that the music legend was terminally ill, under 24-hour care and on oxygen. "We're all very sad. We're just waiting," said De Leon in December.

The great Etta James did not make it to her 74th birthday on January 25th, though many prayed for a healing miracle.

Millions of fans around the world are saddened by the news of Etta James' death after the Rock & Roll, Blues, Soul, R&B, Pop, Gospel and Jazz superstar had survived just about everything life could dish out --- and lived to sing about it all for decades.

Now the end has finally come and the great voice has been silenced on earth.
The sassy, sultry diva behind "At Last" and "Tell Mama" finally achieved the recognition due her over the past few years, with Beyonce starring as the troubled icon in the film Cadillac Records. But long before she had her signature hit, this gospel prodigy was already helping pave the way for rock, soul, and modern blues.

Born:

Jamesetta Hawkins on January 25, 1938, in Los Angeles, CA; died January 20, 2012, Riverside, CA

Genres:

R&B, Blues, Gospel, Soul, Jazz

Instruments:

Vocals

Contributions to music:

One of the R&B and blues world's greatest divas
Gave R&B a big boost into the mainstream and helped develop the rock craze in the process with her 1955 hit "The Wallflower" (a/k/a "Roll With Me, Henry")
Her signature song, 1961's "At Last," is one of the most popular wedding soundtracks of all time
A major influence on rough blues-rock singers such as Janis Joplin, Bonnie Raitt, and Rod Stewart
Well-known for her saucy and sometimes scandalous stage demeanor

Early years:

Etta James' wild life began early on -- she grew up in a single-mother household and was eventually expelled from her high school, by which time she'd already formed more than one doo-wop group with her schoolmates. Bandleader Johnny Otis, later famous for "Willie and the Hand Jive," had the group record a novelty song of sorts, an answer to Hank Ballard and the Midnighters' huge smash "Work With Me Annie." The female response record, dubbed "Roll With Me, Henry," was another smash, though it was changed to "Dance With Me, Henry," and, later, "The Wallflower," to disguise the frank sexual nature of the song.

Success:

The hits dried up after that, however, and Etta's solo career was slowing until she signed with Chess Records in 1960. It was there that the Chess brothers redesigned Etta as a torchy jazz-pop singer, leading to hits like "At Last" and "All I Could Do Was Cry." 1967's "Tell Mama" was another hit that marked a fork in her career, steering her more towards gutbucket soul. Etta stayed with the Chess label until it folded in 1975, long after most artists had left, and moved with the times to a more rock-based approach like Tina Turner's, becoming noted for covers of offbeat artists like Randy Newman and Prince.

Later years:

Eventually she turned to a straight blues approach, and since 1989 has reigned as one of the singular stars on that scene, loaded with Grammy and Blues Foundation awards. Etta's health had begun failing in the Nineties, however, as her weight ballooned to over 400 pounds and doctors were forced to deny her the knee-replacement surgery she desperately needed. However, in 2003 she became one of the first celebrities to undergo gastric bypass surgery, and she subsequently dropped almost half her body weight. She toured and recorded regularly, and remained one of the premiere draws on the jazz and blues circuit. In January 2011 she was diagnosed with leukemia, and recorded her final album, the acclaimed "The Dreamer." Etta James passed away on January 20, 2012.

Other facts:

Has had a history of substance abuse and legal trouble, including addictions to heroin, cocaine, and alcohol, as well as arrests for forgery and bad checks
Claims her father is the legendary pool player Rudolf Wanderone, a/k/a "Minnesota Fats"
Sang on local gospel radio as a soloist at the age of five
Recorded in Cosimo Matassa's legendary New Orleans studio in the late Fifties
Had an affair with the married Harvey Fuqua of the Moonglows, with whom she cut two hit duets
Sang on "Henry" with Richard Berry, original creator of the R&B hit "Louie, Louie," and was later related to him by her daughter's marriage

Awards/Honors:

Rock and Roll Hall of Fame (1993)
GRAMMY Awards (1994, 1999, 2002. 2003, 2004)
GRAMMY Hall of Fame (2008)
Rhythm and Blues Foundation Pioneer Award (1989)
BMI Lifetime Achievement Award (2003)
Hollywood Walk of Fame (7080 Hollywood Blvd.)

Recorded work:

#1 hits:
R&B: "The Wallflower" (a/k/a "Roll With Me, Henry") (1955)

Top 10 hits:

R&B:
"Good Rockin' Daddy" (1955)
"All I Could Do Was Cry" (1960)
"If I Can't Have You" with Harvey Fuqua of the Moonglows(1960)
"My Dearest Darling" (1960}
"At Last" (1961)
"Trust In Me" (1961)
"Don't Cry Baby" (1961)
"Something's Got A Hold On Me" (1962)
"Stop The Wedding" (1962)
"Pushover" (1963}
"Loving You More Every Day" (1964)
"Tell Mama" (1967)

#1 albums:

Blues:
Mystery Lady: Songs of Billie Holiday (1994)
Burnin' Down The House (2002)
Let's Roll (2003)
The Definitive Collection (2006)

Jazz:
Blue Gardenia (2001)

Top 10 albums:

R&B:
All The Way (2006)

Blues:
Love's Been Rough On Me (1997)
12 Songs Of Christmas (1998)
Life, Love And The Blues (1998)
The Best Of Etta James: 20th Century Masters (1999)
The Heart Of A Woman (1999)
Matriarch of the Blues (2002)
Love Songs (2001)
Blues To The Bone (2004)
All The Way (2006)

Jazz:
Mystery Lady: Songs of Billie Holiday (1994)Time After Time (1995)

Other important recordings: "Spoonful" with Harvey Fuqua of the Moonglows, "A Sunday Kind Of Love," "Fool That I Am," "Dream," "It's Too Soon To Know," "Seven Day Fool," "Next Door To The Blues," "Would It Make Any Difference To You," "Payback," "Two Sides (To Every Story)," "Baby What You Want Me To Do," "In The Basement - Part 1" with Sugar Pie DeSanto, "I Prefer You," "Security," "Almost Persuaded," "Losers Weepers - Part 1," "I Found A Love," "All The Way Down," "Leave Your Hat On," "Out on the Street, Again," "Tough Lover," "Waiting For Charlie (To Come Home)," "These Foolish Things (Remind Me Of You)," "I'd Rather Go Blind," "God's Song (That's Why I Love Mankind)," "Feeling Uneasy," "Let's Burn Down The Cornfield," "Loving Arms," "Take It To The Limit," "Damn Your Eyes," "Whatever Gets You Through The Night," "The Man I Love," "The Blues Is My Business," "The Sky Is Crying"

Covered by: Christina Aguilera, Rod Stewart, Gladys Knight and the Pips, Cyndi Lauper, Joan Osborne, Joni Mitchell, Chicken Shack, Paul Weller, The Temprees, Warren Hill, Sydney Youngblood, Mary Coughlan, Renee Olstead

Appears in the movies: "Sgt. Pepper's Lonely Hearts Club Band" (1978), "Chuck Berry Hail! Hail! Rock 'n' Roll" (1987), "Tap" (1989), "Record Row: Cradle of Rhythm and Blues" (1998)

2012-01-25T11:35:00.000+08:00

Is The European Financial Crisis Ending ?

There are more and more signs that the plumbing of the European financial system is starting to work.

The latest, as FT reports, is that money market funds are once again buying European bank paper.

Last year, money market funds were sellers of many European banks’ short-term commercial paper as worries grew about the repercussions of a possible European sovereign default. That was a critical factor in market anxiety, as the highly rated funds’ $2.7tn in liquid assets are a key source of dollar funding.

Money market funds bought French bank paper with maturities as long as one month, as well as small amounts of Spanish bank paper, according to bankers. The funds also bought longer-dated UK, Dutch and Scandinavian bank paper, up to six-month maturities.

By the end of last year, the ECB was essentially the only game in town when it came to bank funding. While the ECB still basically backstops the whole thing, others are at least willing to enter the game again.

2012-01-25T11:30:00.001+08:00

I Like Stimulus - Especially When They Are Coming From Playboy

The Playboy Stimulus Plan

Remember a million years ago, when Playboy put the call out for “Women of Wall Street” to help tackle the financial crisis by taking their clothes off? The feature was supposed to run in the February issue, but that came and went with nary a peep of financial services T&A. We assumed it was ’cause no one in the field was willing to get naked, despite the fact that it was for the good of the economy. Apparently, not so much! The spank rag’s May issue features the promised Wall Street spread. I’d say what follows is probably NSFW,* unless you happen to work at SAC, in which case consider this a guide to career advancement. Later today we’ll post the vintage (August 1989) WoWS feature, for comparison’s sake.

*Though we did cover the most intimate areas with a familiar face.

First up we’ve got Tara DeGregorio, a “former executive assistant” at “an elite Fortune 500 company.” Tara’s business wisdom: “I was a rule breaker. I liked high stilettos and cute skirts. I tried to abide by the rules, but I pushed the envelope whenever i could, especially in the summer.”

Next, Regina Chapman, a branch-bank VP. Says Chaps: “I deal with men who have been in the business for years, but I prove I know what I’m talking about.”

Here we have Alicia Taylor, a managing member at Mortgage Solutions. Before the markets tanked, she was “literally about to buy a plane.” Alicia’s motto is, “If you stay ready, you’ll never have to get ready.” Taylor seriously adds, “I never want to get caught with my pants down.”

Above, Georgia Anderson. She’s a broker at Global Futures.

Here we have Tinea Smith, casually getting out of a cab. She’s a financial advisor at Charles Schwab.

At left, Katherine Bhuckdwonges. She used to be a credit manager at Wells Fargo, until they laid her off. Ridic! According to Katherine, WFC “hires the best looking people.” At right, equities trader Maria Pearson. A year ago, she had “four computers and three phones” at her desk and they were “going crazy.” She didn’t have time to “get up for a second,” or pose for spank rags. Now, “not so much.”

2012-01-25T11:13:00.002+08:00

Doing Business With Barbarians -

A China Lesson

When Chad’s $60 million Djarmaya refinery, 25 miles north of the capital N’djamena, was opened on 29 June 2011 after two years of construction, President Idriss Deby Itno described it as a "gift from China."

As well Deby might – the United Nations' Human Development Index ranks Chad as the seventh poorest country in the world, with 80 percent of the population living below the poverty line on less than $1 a day.

In an earlier swipe at Western countries’ lack of interest in investing in his country Deby said, “In what manner has Africa progressed, in what sector? Whatever the good will of Africa’s old friends and the old partners in its development, it has not progressed at all.”

The Djarmaya refinery has the capacity to produce 20,000 barrels per day (bpd) of gasoline, kerosene, and heating oil. The Djarmaya refinery’s feedstock is supplied from the Ronier and Mimosa oilfields in Chad’s southern Bongor region via a 193 mile-long pipeline, which China also helped to finance.

Even better, the Djarmaya refinery also produces 40 megawatts of electricity, which are divided between the refinery and N'Djamena.

The icing on the cake?

The Djarmaya refinery turned Chad into an oil exporter. On 30 December 2011 Chad and the neighboring Central African Republic signed a memorandum of understanding for the export and sale of petroleum products from Djarmaya to the CAR. Chad’s Minister of Energy and Petroleum Eugene Tabe initialed the agreement with his CAR colleague, Minister of Water and Hydraulics Leopold Mboli Fatran.

Quite an accomplishment, as China and Chad only resumed diplomatic relations in 2006, after Chad switched its diplomatic recognition from Taiwan, which had had diplomatic ties with Chad since 1997, to the Peoples Republic of China. At the time Taipei stated that the reason for the switch was that Beijing promised to cut aid to rebel forces opposing the Deby regime.

But underneath the surface Chadian motorists began to have doubts about the quality of the gasoline produced by the Djarmaya refinery, as rumors began circulating that it was of lower quality and burned in the engine faster than imported gasoline.

Darker rumors began circulating in N'djamena that the Chinese had distributed nearly $10 million in bribes to Deby’s family members and close associates, including a former Minister of Petroleum and a Societe des Hydrocarbures du Tchad (Society of Petroleum of Chad, or SHT) former director, to build the Djarmaya refinery.

Alas, a dispute between over pricing the Djarmaya refinery’s products between the Chadian government and its Chinese owners, the state-owned China National Petroleum Corporation International (CNPCI), a subsidiary of the state-owned China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), led the government on 19 January to suspend production. Chad’s national radio announced simply, "The secretary-general of the trade and industry ministry has closed the Djarmaya refinery."

CNPCI owns 60 percent of the Djarmaya refinery, while the Chadian government holds the remaining 40 percent, which it paid for with a loan from Libya.

But it seems in fact that disputes over pricing dated back to the time of the inauguration of the refinery, as Deby had arbitrarily fixed the prices of petroleum products produced by the Djarmaya refinery, which caused the Chinese to protest that they would in fact lose money on the prices if the costs of the bribes received by Deby were factored in.

Deby then asked the Chinese to keep the prices for three months after which they could be raised.

But now this gentlemen’s agreement appears to have broken down completely. Speaking on condition of anonymity a Chadian government official told Agence France Presse, "There is a dialogue of the deaf between the government and the Chinese to the point where industrial units had begun to close down for lack of oil," adding that the Chinese Djarmaya refinery director general was now considered "persona non grata and must leave Chad."

It is unclear what leverage Beijing will now have to resolve its dispute with Deby, who has ruled Chad with an iron fist for 21 years.

Bribes didn’t work – perhaps Beijing resuming funding Chadian rebels with bases in Sudan might inaugurate a “Chadian Spring,” with a new regime promising to safeguard Chinese investments.

2012-01-25T11:11:00.000+08:00

Iran Embargo Fails to Get It Up For Oil Bulls - A Double Tops Could See Crude Crashes Soon ?

Fundamentals

Crude Oil futures have been drifting lower during recent sessions, unable to sustain any upward momentum. The news of the European embargo on Iranian goods, including Oil, has done little to shake Crude bulls out of hiding. In their response statement, Iran took a much less threatening tone, notably omitting any mention of a possible shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz. The Greek debt impasse has weighed on the commodity and equity markets overnight, demonstrating that nothing is certain with the embattled nation and further shrinking investor confidence, if that is even possible. The renewed concerns about Greece and assurances from Saudi Arabia that they will keep Oil flowing have largely neutralized any bullish sentiment that may have arisen from the Iranian embargo. The deciding factor in the near-term direction of the Oil market could come from economic and supply data, although more aggressive posturing from Iran could be a wild card.

Technical Notes

Technically, the March Crude Oil has once again failed to have a meaningful breakout above the 104 level, reversing and drifting lower. The 50-day moving average has acted as support recently, suggesting that some traders may wish to keep a close eye on prices near the average. Successive closes below the average could be a signal that prices may move lower in the near-term. The 95.00 mark may be an important level near-term, as closes below the price could suggest prices may test the low 90's.

2012-01-25T10:59:00.001+08:00

"很多香港人是狗 ?" (4) -

新疆 - 「沒有中央和我們內地人的建設，你們王八蛋也早餓死了。」

北京大學中文系教授孔慶東大駡香港多數人是狗和王八蛋，
香港的法治，是因為港人生性下賤，引起爭議。

這位北大教授說「香港人的屁股為什麼摸不得？」自稱也駡過北京人、深圳人，「都沒事」。
不錯，香港人服服貼貼，確是狗，沒有像新疆維吾爾族人一樣要「維獨」。

孔教授一腔牛Ｂ的熱血，不如摸摸維吾爾人的屁股看看？那裏一片黃沙，

「沒有中央和我們內地人的建設，你們王八蛋也早餓死了。」不知他敢不敢講呢？

柿子只敢挑軟的揑，孔慶東這個「中國人」，是這副德性。北京大學從前有蔡元培，今有孔牛Ｂ，真是中國人之福。

煽動仇恨，在「西方先進國家」，是有罪的，叫做Hate Crime。

英國散文家赫思禮（William Hazlitt），有一篇小品，叫「仇恨之樂」（On the Pleasure of Hating），他說：看見牆上有一隻小蜘蛛在爬，就有一種把小蜘蛛拍死的本能衝動。這隻小昆蟲無害，但仇恨是人性底層的一股慾望！「仇恨的快感，像一種有毒的礦物，直侵宗教的心靈，仇恨令愛國情緒轉化為殺人放火和瘟疫，而且對他人的動機和行為，興起狹隘嫉妒交纏的審判。」

這是英國知識份子二百年前非常精闢的論斷，一個國家，早有如此的思想家，就有對仇恨的免疫力。英語世界如美國、澳洲、加拿大，至今都是中國的富人爭相把小孩送去讀書，自己轉移資產和移民的對象，有道理的，因為從來不必有什麼「流血革命」，建立了很理想的人權社會。

赫思禮的仇恨論，日後在希特拉、列寧、波爾布特等的行為，得到最佳論證。

後來，仇恨罪正名為Hate Crime。 Hating和 Hate有什麼不同？Hating的字義像Playing，有點瑣碎，揑死一隻小蜘蛛，就是Hating，赫思禮的時代還沒有把猶太人一個族群、地主階級都滅絕的地獄式的仇恨，後來有了，所以Hate本來是動詞，轉為名詞，英文的文法和習慣是隨時代轉化的。

仇恨通識

北京大學教授指說廣東話的香港人偷拐蒙騙，香港人是狗，尊崇法治的香港人和新加坡人是賤，而下賤的人，都「欠揍」，即是在電視網絡公開號召毆打，在遠東地區頗為新鮮，且有許多人欣賞認同，但不幸在中國人普遍崇洋的「西方先進國家」，恐已構成仇恨犯罪（Hate Crime）。
「仇恨犯罪」是第二次世界大戰後的新刑律。像北大教授的「邏輯論證」一樣：不說普通話和遵守法律就是狗，狗即是賤，賤就要毆打，德國納粹也以同樣的「理性學術」，指猶太人千百年來做生意不老實、鑽營蠅利，政府立法，把猶太人剔出公務員、醫生、律師、教育等上層行業。然後德國的中小學、日耳曼裔學生毆打猶太小孩，教師裝作看不見，猶太孩子放了學，被德國小同學扭頭髮追打，在居住的街道，猶太人走上街上就被吐口水欺凌。

然後政府說：不行了，為了保障猶太人安全(Malaysia Police also talk like this) ，把他們集中到一起，以後發生的事，看看電影「舒特拉的名單」，誰都知道了。

偶爾嘲笑一下少數民族的所謂「弱勢族群」，像英國的喜劇「小不列顛」（Little Britain），是創作自由，但五官扭曲的把一個城市、省份的人定性為狗，不斷強調，並呼籲這些人「欠揍」，叫中國其他人對香港人狠狠用鞭子來打，以中國國情，可能很正常──中國跟「普世價值觀」不一樣──但在中國人爭相把下一代送去留學、定居、排隊領綠卡的英國、美國、加拿大，言者必進監牢。

香港人批評大陸人帶孩子在車廂飲食小便，從來沒有人喊打，不錯，香港人是狗，五十萬洋奴遊行，還和平有序，香港沿襲了英國的法治、平靜和理性。

但這位北大良心知識份子卻在呼籲「文攻武衞」的暴力，這就不可以像香港某時評人說的「一笑置之」──他可以哈哈大笑，看看納粹德國、波斯尼亞、盧旺達，仇恨釋放出來不得了，有一點通識的世界觀的人，可不太笑得出來。

2012-01-25T10:57:00.000+08:00

新加坡上市中国企业 - “作业被狗吃了”

新加坡盯紧“龙筹股”

一般来说，监管机构要求企业就财务报告作出解释，大多数企业会马上照办，至少在表面上会这样。但中国天宇化纤(Sky Chemical Fibre)的做法则不同。这家公司是一连串财务报告受质疑的海外上市中国企业中的最新一例。本周早些时候，新加坡交易所(SGX)请求法院强制天宇化纤进行特别审计——这是新加坡交易所历史上头一次这么做，不过现在它已撤诉。

新加坡交易所展开这一法律行动本身值得欢迎。该交易所去年11月首次就关联交易、土地交易和一项金额大得不同寻常的一次性养护成本提出疑问，要求天宇化纤进行特别审计。市值达6400万美元的天宇化纤宣称，自己已就这些问题向新加坡交易所做了解释。但新加坡交易所称天宇化纤没有做过解释。遗憾的是，这不是一起孤立事件。2009年以来，除天宇化纤之外，新加坡交易所上市企业中共有17家做了特别审计，其中大部分是中国企业。审计人员在这个过程中遇到了一些新奇的问题。去年，中国合成革高科 (Sino Techfibre)称公司办公室发生火灾，会计记录大部分被烧毁。两年前，中国峻煌生化科技(Sun Bio-chem Technology)称公司卡车被盗，放在卡车里的会计记录随之丢失。

这种理由就像交不出作业的学生在说“作业被狗吃了”，任何胆敢盘算使用这类拙劣借口的企业，都不该向公众发售股票。任何证交所都不该容许这样的企业上市、或继续挂牌。投资者对此心知肚明。过去6个月里，新加坡交易所“龙筹股”（S-chips，即在该交易所上市的中国企业股票）成交量同比下降近五分之二，非“龙筹股”成交量的降幅则仅略高于五分之一。“龙筹股”的合计市值也下跌了五分之二以上，是非“龙筹股”市值跌幅的近三倍。

新加坡交易所应该继续推进此事。它必须保护自己的声誉，确保将投资者的利益放在第一位。

2012-01-23T11:24:00.002+08:00

"很多香港人是狗 ?" (3) -孔子後人罵南方 (广东) 報系斷章取義，

挑撥國家分裂

孔慶東竟缷膊否認罵過香港人是狗？

孔慶東否認罵港人是狗的訪問，或可看有線新聞的相關

報道

孔慶東罵香港人是狗，引來香港及內地人廣泛討論，不

少香港市民及網民十分憤怒，要求他道歉，但也有一些

內地人支持他的言論，認為他沒有罵錯。

可是，怎樣也想不到，有大量Youtube片段為證，有這麼

多人看過他在「孔和尚有話說」怎樣罵港人是狗，可是，

現在，

這傢伙竟可以睜眼說瞎

話，一

會兒說自己沒有說

過「香港人是狗」，

一會兒又說所指的「狗」是「走狗」，指那些蔑視內地同胞

的香港人，之後又說是內地及香港傳媒對他的言論段章

取義。

一言以閉之，簡單點說，就是說了不敢認，知道犯眾怒，

甚至，可能因此要在內地面對政治後果，所以，要推卸責

任，將一切可能引發的問題，推到其他人身上！

再看看孔慶東在他的微博怎樣將自己的言論責任，推卸

到內地南方都市報等傳媒身上：

「剛剛接受了香港新聞台的電話採訪，態度很友善，問我某些香港人是不是做得太過分了，我說不要緊，根源是南方報系斷章取義，挑撥國家分裂。

假如真有一個人說 “香港人是狗”，那麼這個人應該道歉。而這句話恰好是南方報系說的，所以我鄭重要求南方報系向我並同時向香港人民道歉。支持南方報系認

罪的舉手！」

即是，倒要問問那些支持孔慶東的內地同胞，當你

們全力支持這人言論之時，有沒有想過，這傢伙可以為

了自保，否認自己說過的話，甚至有片做證之下，仍瞪

與小醜又有何分別？你們支持孔慶東，孔慶東卻為求自

保而出賣你們！香港人，其實也不用花精力打孔慶東這

傢伙，因為，他已自曝其醜了！

慶幸的是，香港，從來也是不同人有不同立場，但

平心而論，絕大部份香港學者、評論員，也是忠於自己立

場，不會因為外來壓力，說過之後不敢認、甚至將責任

推給傳媒，孔慶東作為北大教授，如此比拼之下，香港

學者水平，又再勝偉大祖國一次了！

那些支持孔慶東偉大祖國人民，你們，認清這人的真面目嗎？

2012-01-20T21:33:00.001+08:00

Americans have been cutting their debts faster you can say "wow"

Household debt outstanding hit a peak of $13.9 trillion in the first quarter of 2008. This staggering amount of household debt was close to 100% of GDP of the nation (see Chart 1). Home mortgages and consumer credit make up household debt, with home mortgages accounting for roughly 75% of household debt.

A large part of the sharp accumulation in debt has occurred since the second-half of the 1990s. The median increase in household borrowing per year during 1953-2010 is $114.7 billion (see horizontal line in Chart ). There was a gradual upward trend in household borrowing which exceeded the historical median in 1980s and 1990s; the outsized increase occurred during the ten years ended 2008. In other words, the atypical accumulation of debt which exceeded historical norms was spread over a span of ten years.

Narrowing the period of investigation to the last four years, households are not increasing their liabilities but household debt has shrunk in each of the twelve quarters ended 2011:Q1 (see Chart 3). Deleveraging is the process of reducing debt and borrowing less. The cumulative decline in household debt during the last twelve quarters amounts to $608.43 billion (see Chart 4). A reduction of household debt could be involuntary (charge-offs, tightening credit standards) or voluntary (consumers choosing to borrow less and paying off outstanding debt).
The bottom line is that a reduction of household borrowing implies a reduction in spending and therefore a lower GDP headline number. A New York Fed study has attempted to identify the nature and causes of household deleveraging and concludes that “observed deleveraging seems likely to have involved reductions in both the demand and supply of credit.” The conclusion suggests that policies to increase the demand and supply credit are necessary in the near term. More importantly, the duration to complete the process of deleveraging could be an extended period with significant adverse macroeconomic consequences.

2012-01-20T21:30:00.000+08:00

Prepare For A Higher Sugar price

Fundamentals

Sugar futures seem to have found a base just above the 22.50 level, after selling off from the 30.00 mark. The supply shortage of several years ago has had farmers planting Sugar cane at a brisk pace, leading to a supply glut in the near-term. The supply surplus was also aided by favorable growing conditions, which is something that growers cannot control. Traders' focus now lies on whether or not growing conditions will once again cooperate in India and Brazil. Sugar food usage continues to increase at an impressive rate. Brazil continues to import a significant amount of ethanol, suggesting that, when the current crop comes to harvest, a large portion could be diverted to ethanol use.

Technical Notes

Turning to the chart, we see the March Sugar contract forming a bottom near the 22.50 level. The 20 and 50 day moving averages appear to be on the verge of crossing over to the upside, which can be seen as bullish in the near-term. The market may be able to gain upward momentum in the event that prices are able to breach the 25.00 level and the 100 day average just above this level.

2012-01-20T21:19:00.001+08:00

"很多香港人是狗 ?" (2)

當日有線電視就 D&G道歉在街頭做訪問，有同胞指香港人覺得公平重要，但內地人不在乎。價值觀、文化差異，或許才是中、港人民矛盾的根源

內地人來港產子、早前的D&G事件、以及日前的港人怒轟內地人在港鐵車廂內飲食片段，均是示港人與內地人矛盾正日益加深。A日前對我說，不要說那些網上言論，批評「蝗蟲」者越來越多，就算他個人感覺，在街上車上遇上內地與港人爭拗事件，也較以往頻密，顯示問題正在迅速惡化，政府不再處理，後果將十分嚴重。

B說現在問題不止是港人不滿內地人，偉大祖國部份人，也開始在網上發表一些攻擊港人言論，如那個在內地出名「左王」孔慶東，就借港人鬧內地人在港鐵車廂內飲食事件，大罵香港人是狗，B 擔心這種互相敵視的情況擴散下去，早晚必定「出事」！

如何解決這複雜問題，恐怕非一時三刻可妥善處理，但我同意C的說法，特區政府第一步先要對不遵守香港法例的偉大祖國同胞，嚴格執法，凡違法在車廂飲食也好、隨街便溺也好，總之依法辦事，以突顯香港為法治之區，不是有錢、財大氣粗就可以有特權，這樣起碼可以消消部份香港人的氣，令政府有時間處理其他更棘手的內地人問題！

p.s. 這是孔慶東罵港人是狗的節目「北大醉侠遥指天下」

2012-01-20T21:15:00.003+08:00

"很多香港人是狗 ?"(1)

想不到孔慶東那罵港人是狗的視頻，已在香港網上廣傳，他說甚麼：「我認為，香港人在中國各地裡面，是素質比較差的地方之一，我多次去香港，
都看到大量的香港人沒有人味，

吭呃拐騙，

無所不用其極，香港的導遊，香港的售貨員，就沒有幾個有人味的，你香港人，有什麼資格，在內地人面前揚眉吐氣？

我再次說，香港人，很多是狗！」

又指「中國人有義務說普通話, 故意不說普誦話的, 是王八旦」、「很多香港人不認為自己是中國人, 是王八旦, 他們是英國走狗, 是狗, 不是人.」、

「香港為甚麼乾淨？因為靠法治，不是靠素質，用法治說明人沒有素質，不打就不好，欠揍」，

令不少人十分氣憤，更有人將片段放上Youtube。
http://v.youku.com/v_show/id_XMzQ0Mzg0MjUy.html 請由23分開始看

2012-01-19T21:09:00.000+08:00

A Little Bit Of History For Those Of You Who Think The US Is Screwed

Do you think the US glory days are over or, at a minimum, that we're on the verge of a new downturn?

In his weekly note, Raymond James' Jeff Saut offers up a great batch of history for those who think the US is facing some crisis of historic proportions.

He starts off with this quote, which sounds very familiar...

“We are suffering just now from a bad attack of economic pessimism. It is common to hear people say that the epoch of enormous economic progress which characterised the century is over; that the rapid improvement in the standard of life is now going to slow down; that a decline in prosperity is more likely than an improvement in the decade which lies ahead.”

It turns out, that was from John Maynard Keynes, and it was said in 1930.

Then Saut passes a long a message from a London-based investor, pondering the last time the US was at risk of a double-dip recession.

“There may be no value in drawing comparisons with past market patterns, but I find it irresistible. In 1994 I was a U.S. portfolio manager and the debate of the day was whether the U.S. economy would succumb to recession. If my memory is correct, the term ‘double-dip’ was coined at this time as the U.S. was still suffering the hangover from the Savings & Loan crisis that had exacerbated the 1991 recession. Despite this background of doom and gloom the S&P 500 advanced by 34% in 1995.

Lest you think there was much less to worry about back then, here are some of the headlines:

Nov 1994 - Norwegian voters decide not to join the European Union.

Dec 1994 - Boris Yeltsin orders troops into Chechnya.

Dec 1994 - Mexican Tequila Crisis – ‘unleashing the Tequila effect on global financial markets.’ The U.S. agrees to a bail-out.

Jan 1995 - Kobe Earthquake in Japan. Feb 1995 - Barings collapses due to speculative trading by Nick Leeson.

Apr 1995 - Oklahoma City bombing kills 168 people.

Jun 1995 - Iraq disarmament crisis. . . .

you get the picture - plenty to worry about - plus ca change.

So a prudent man may have been tempted to hold back from investing in early 1995, but that would have been foolish. The market rose in 7 of the first 8 weeks of the year. By the end of February the S&P 500 was up 6%, and then rose nearly 3% in March, another 3% in April and over 3% in May. By the time most of the Cassandras were re-evaluating their position the S&P 500 had advanced ~20%.
That's my point: don't stand back and deny the move; participate. I was the prudent man.”

Saut's bottom line for the week?

This is not the time to be bearish.

The turtle makes no progress until it sticks its neck out; I have been sticking my neck out since Thanksgiving, believing the Santa rally was beginning. I stuck with that strategy until the first day of trading this year, which felt like a short-term emotional trading peak. A short-term price peak occurred on 1/10/12 at 1296.46 basis the SPX, as chronicled in these missives. The only question in my mind was whether we were going to get a pullback into the 1230 – 1240 support zone, or if we would experience a sideways correction as the overbought condition was worked off and the market’s internal energy was rebuilt. So far it’s been a sideways correction, leaving the NYSE McClellan Oscillator not overbought, but not oversold either. In fact, it is hovering around the neutral line. Meanwhile, the stock market’s internal energy is almost fully recharged. And this morning we are greeted with better than expected Chinese GDP growth (+8.9% vs. +8.7%E), a worldwide interest rate easing cycle, the largest jump in German investor confidence ever, a decent Spanish bond auction, and hints of another round of quantitative easing.

The result has the pre-opening S&P 500 futures up double digits, precious metals sharply higher, crude oil back above $100/bbl., and a lower U.S. dollar. Accordingly, while I would have liked to see more of a pullback to a minimum of 1250 – 1260, I’ll say it again – I think it is a mistake to become too bearish . .

2012-01-19T21:07:00.000+08:00

1st. Republican Takes On Warren Buffett's Challenge

Congressman Takes Buffett Up On His Offer, Buffett Says He'll Write The Treasury A $49,000 Check

Warren Buffett has written his first check to the U.S. Treasury since announcing his pledge to match Republican donations to pay down the national debt a week ago.

Carol Loomis, Fortune's senior editor-at-large and long-time friend of Buffett's, reports that the Omaha investor received a letter from Congressman Scott Rigell of Virginia .

In it, Rigell details the $49,000 he had donated to Treasury in total in 2011 and 2012 and asks Buffett to match both (full letter is below).

Buffett agreed (full letter below).

Lest we raise your hopes that the national debt is over as an issue, current U.S. debt stands at approximately $15.2 trillion.

Apologies, but it's official policy that there can be no completely feel-good stories about U.S. debt.

Full letter from Congressman Scott Rigell:

Full response from Buffett:

2012-01-19T20:56:00.000+08:00

為何那麼多中國人不想做中國人

近日，一條港人怒轟內地人在港鐵車廂內飲食的片段，成了報章的新聞。之後，又傳出所謂衝關內地孕婦丈夫，對醫護人員呼喝甚至動手動腳，似乎內地人與港人矛盾正在激化。A說，看多日前劉健威在《信報》專欄文章，你就可以知偉大祖國同胞可以如何漠視香港規矩

「這天在銅鑼灣怡東酒店前等的士。人龍有兩條，一條是酒店客人，另一條是非酒店客人；酒店客人當然優先。

近放工時間，等的人多，來的車少。我在非酒店客人的人龍等候，排在我後面有一對老夫婦，操普通話，看衣裝是內地同胞，手上提着大包小包剛買回來的衣物，有些是名牌；忽然，他們從隊伍走出去，跟維持秩序的印度人說：我們是酒店客人。印度人顯然不太相信，問他們拿酒店的門卡一看。女的說：留在房間裏了。印度人問：哪你是幾號房？答說：二〇一。印度人笑了：這裏根本沒有二〇一號房。這時正好有一部的士停下來，男的跳了進去，女的也跟着進去了。印度人搖搖頭，依然笑着說：講大話。我也笑着說：也許是別的酒店二〇一吧。

一眾等車的人都苦笑了。

忽然想起聞一多的幾句詩：「請告訴我誰是中國人？╱啟示我，如何把記憶抱緊？╱輕輕的告訴我，不要喧嘩。」你願意跟這等質素的人同種同族嗎？遇上這樣情形，你會不會以做中國人為恥？難怪，香港和台灣人大部分人都不願意當中國人。

撒謊、打尖，得到的是什麼呢？最多是省了十分鐘等車時間。但失去的是什麼呢？尊嚴。這種人，誰不齒冷？誰會尊重？你想，那個印度人會怎樣看待這對夫婦？要是他「執正來做」，把他們趕下車，顏面何存？為了省那十分鐘，值得嗎？

真的不明白，在中國，好像很多事情（像那十分鐘）都很重要，但最不值錢的是尊嚴。而honor system，相信人會自動自覺不踰矩，似乎很難行得通。很多事未必有人管你，譬如說，一毫錢也不幫襯，卻賴在星巴克看報或做自己的事，但你的尊嚴在哪裏？

對自尊的重視程度，是一個民族的文明指標。」

A說，對此，所謂的「中國人」又可以說甚麼？當一個民族，連自尊、尊嚴也不重視之時，可期望有人想爭著做「中國人」？

郝鐵川與其罵港大民調做甚麼港人對中國人的認同(only 16% of Hongies think they are 中國人) ，
倒不如問一問，為何，那麼多中國人不想做中國人，包括，把子女送去外國入籍的中共高官在內！

2012-01-18T11:43:00.000+08:00

我们不是神

忌一味相信拜神者提防假教徒

文：刘墉

常听人们说“某某应该可以信赖，因为他是虔诚的教徒。”这时候我多半会问：“虔诚的教徒不也是普通人吗？”

我这以问，是因为从小总思考，信教的人是否跟不信教的人不同？

忌论断人

小时候，我常跟着母亲去做礼拜，记得教会里每本圣经里都盖了同一位教友捐献的印章，牧师也好像对那位教友特别好，我后来才知道“她”家非常富有。只是听教友们说“她”因为不满儿子的婚事，不跟儿子媳妇往来。我心想，圣经“主祷文”里不是有“赦免我们的债，如同我们免人的债”吗？她为什么连儿子的债都不能免？

还有一天，教堂门外躺了个腿上缠着纱布的男人，看到教友就呻吟乞讨。我说给他些钱吧！教友们却说谁知道他是真是假，只怕拿了钱去胡花柳道。我说“他腿上的纱布都有血耶！”他们则说：“血也能作假！” 问题是圣经上不是说：“不要论断人，免得被论断”吗？

良心也能不安

还有件令我不解的事：母亲有一天在吃面包的时候说，有位教友讲，他很不心安，因为他开面包店，在面包里加了一种东西，对人身体不好。

“他可以不加啊！”我说。母亲却讲：“他也想不加，可是不加做出来的面包不漂亮，争不过别人，所以他不得不加，就因为这样，不心安。”

魔鬼在哪里

母亲还说她跟一群教友去探另一位教友的病，进入病人家，看见桌上摆了祖宗牌位，其中一位教友立刻火冒三丈地说有拜偶像的魔鬼，拉着大家转身就走。

这样的事，我多年之后也遇上：一位传教士到我家，进门不久就说他头痛，疼得不得了。我问他常头痛吗？他说没有，只因为他看到我墙上挂了一幅龙。我说那是我老师林玉山先生的作品，画得好极了，但有什么不对吗？

“龙是魔鬼啊！你怎能把鬼挂在家里？”

要安心！要安心！

还有，我少年时因为盲肠炎住院，每天天不亮就被隔壁大楼传来的哭喊吵醒。出院时回头看，才知道那是个教堂。我当时很迷惑，想那哭的人是不是特别虔诚？所以晨祷时忏悔哭喊，不断喊着自己是罪人。这么说来，我的灵性不如他，就更该忏悔哭喊了。

只是我也想：那虔诚哭喊的人，他的心是更安，还是更不安？又或者必须在祈祷哭喊之后，才能安？看到画就头痛的传教士也一样，只怕真正的魔鬼在他自己心中。

后来，我跟哈佛大学心理系的儿子提到这件事，他笑笑说：“一个没有任何信仰，却能快快乐乐、心安理得过一生的人，应该是更健康的人。”

可不是吗？我有位事业非常有成的朋友，第一次去打禅七，回来对我强力推荐，说经过那几天，他的人生态度整个改变了。

问题是，隔一阵，他又去了。我问他为什么又去，他说心又不安了，要再去安安心。

世界末日的来到

最近两个新闻也让我触动：一位美国老牧师四处宣扬，五二一是世界末日，那天到来的前几日，只见美国街头好多虔诚的教友，举着牌子劝告世人，把人间的事快点放下，迎接世界末日和升天时刻的来临。有人甚至把房产都卖了，为了宣扬这最后审判的消息，印制海报广告四处张贴。

它让我想起十几年前，有个韩国教会的先知，也宣扬同样的事。有两位信徒，还特别跑到我家，把他们的存折、钥匙、信用卡……交给我岳父，说到了“那天”，他们会带着子女在教会等待，然后一起升天，身上的手表、戒指、一切东西，都会掉在地上，叮嘱我们去把这些“留在世间”的东西拿回来。因为先知说，还会有些剩下的辛苦日子，给“没升上去”的人。

真正讽刺的是，当时韩国先知讲，那些特别有灵性的人，在升天前一个礼拜，会听到来自天上的号角声。

据说许多教徒都表示他们听到了。天哪！他真听到了吗？如果没听到却说听到，他好比看到“国王的新衣”。如果他果然听到了，那必是幻听和妄想。这种硬把自己幻想认定是上帝旨意的人，能不危险吗？怪不得过去有那么多教派集体自杀、甚至自焚的悲剧发生。

神父的诱惑

让我触动的另一件事，是最近《读者文摘》对欧盟十六国三万多人作“最信任职业”的民调，结果神父在人们心中的地位还不如计程车司机。还有美国加州圣地牙哥教会，甚至为了48个神父集体性侵144名教友，付出破记录的1亿9810万元和解金。

当我抱怨时，一位朋友说得好：“不能怪神父啊，他们听太多告解了，当一个又一个端庄的淑女说出放荡的秘密，神父要受多大冲击啊！人们愈对教士说出心底的东西，愈多教士会出问题。这跟医院一样，医院是治病的地方，又是病人最多的地方。也跟警察一样，他们是抓坏人的人，也是最容易被黑道污染的人。”最后，他强调一句：“神父、牧师、教主、医生、警察、教授、法官，管他什么职业，都是人哪！”

脑袋换得了吗？

可不是吗？每个人都是人，虽然台湾俗语说“换了位子，就换了脑袋。”一个人确实可能因为幡然改过，而放下屠刀，立地成佛，也可能因为对宗教的坚持而慷慨殉道。只是我发现绝大多数的人“换了位子”，并不能“换掉脑袋”。教堂的颂赞祈祷哭喊忏悔，不见得能改变人的本性。何况其中又有许多别有所较的假教徒。

《菜根谭》说得好：“淫奔之妇，矫而为尼，热中之人，激而入道。清净之门，常为淫邪之渊薮也如此。”你能只因为某人常打禅七、常去礼拜、看似虔诚，就认为他好人一等，放松心防吗？

我们不是神

我出生在基督教家庭，曾经在天主教大学任教，我很尊重宗教家，也长期支持宗教慈善团体，但是考虑再三，我还是不得不写下这篇文章，告诉大家：每个人都是人，无论他多么虔诚礼拜，甚至无论他是多么伟大的布道家，他都还只是人，不是神！你完全不防备，很可能吃亏，而且亏得很惨！

不是他的神害了你，是他这个人害了你，也是不懂人性的你，害了你自己。

2012-01-18T11:08:00.000+08:00

Is UK Next To Go Down ?

There is a relative silence in the international financial press when it comes to Britain.

The economic situation of continental Europe gets almost all the attention.

Every now and then someone in France or Germany states that Britain, too, should be downgraded, like when S&P cut the ratings of 9 European countries, but such statements attract hardly any interest at all. This might not be overly wise, though.

At the end of last year, Tyler Durden at ZeroHedge published a graph from Haver Analytics/Morgan Stanley that should probably have sounded alarm bells quite a bit louder than it did.

Still, this graph would seem to indicate that the only core issue in the UK is its outsize financial sector with its outsize debt. From time to time, however, news articles pop up that seem to indicate there's more going on than trouble in the City of London.

I found this one alarmingly interesting, for instance, from James Hall in the Telegraph on January 4:

One million people take out emergency loans to pay mortgage

Almost one million Britons have taken out an emergency 'payday' loan to help pay their rent or mortgage in the last year, according to Shelter, the housing charity.

The high degree of borrowing highlights the 'spiral of debt' that people are falling into to keep a roof over their head, Shelter said. The charity also found that seven million Britons are relying on some form of credit to help pay their housing costs.

Campbell Robb, Shelter’s chief executive, said: 'These shocking findings show the extent to which millions of households across the country are desperately struggling to keep their home.'

Payday loans to pay off your mortgage? Sounds like perhaps Britain has a substantial hidden real estate problem, a pre-shadow inventory one that could spiral out of control at a rapid clip.

On January 9, the same James Hall had this follow-up:

Six million households have only five days' savings

Around six million households would be unable to survive for more than five days if they stopped being paid, such are the low levels of savings among Britons, new research shows.

A new report from First Direct, the bank, warns that one in three UK households have less than £250 in accessible savings. A fifth of all households have no savings at all.

The bank said that £250 is the equivalent of three days’ average monthly household take-home pay. With average monthly outgoing currently at £1,536, these savings would last just five days.

Obviously, the two groups, those that take out loanshark payday loans to keep a roof over their head, and those that live paycheck to paycheck, overlap each other to a large extent.

Still, what makes it striking is the sheer number of people affected. One million people need emergency loans to keep their families in their homes, while six million households have nothing whatsoever saved for a rainy day.

If we put the average household size at 2.5 people, that means that, out of 60 million living in Britain, 2.5 million are on the verge of losing their homes, and 15 million, or 25% of the population, risk having to cut on their basic needs, food and heating, if they hit even the slightest speedbump.

And what are the chances this situation will improve any time soon? It doesn't look good; in fact it looks set to worsen. While there's no lack of denial, an increasing number of voices admit that the British economy has already slipped back into recession. This is from the BBC this morning:

UK in recession say Item Club economic forecasters

The UK may have already slipped back into recession, economic forecaster the [Ernst&Young] Item Club has warned. The think tank said gross domestic product shrank in the final quarter of last year and would contract again in the current three-month period.

It said that even if the eurozone could resolve its problems the UK economy would grow by just 0.2% this year. It also predicted unemployment would rise by a further 300,000 to just below three million people. [..]

Meanwhile, the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development said unemployment would stay above 2.5 million until at least 2016, peaking at 2.9 million next year. Chief economic adviser John Philpott said the jobless rate would rise to 8.8% at the end of next year. [..]

Another forecast from the Centre for Economics and Business Research said the UK would actually shrink this year by 0.4% and by a full 1% if the eurozone broke up.

Nor is it hard to find an ironic twist in all this. In what depicts a fast growing chain of events, Zoe Wood reports for the Guardian:

Royal Bank of Scotland pulls out of deal to rescue Peacocks

More than 13,000 retail jobs are on the line at value fashion group Peacocks after Royal Bank of Scotland walked away from restructuring talks at the heavily indebted retail chain.

Peacocks may have to appoint administrators after the state-backed lender had an abrupt change of heart about a deal to refinance the retailer's £600m debt pile, which would have involved risking more money in the business. RBS and Barclays were in the driving seat of the complex debt-for-equity negotiations – which were said to involve 18 funds and lenders – as they are owed the most. Both banks are owed more than £100m.

Peacocks' advisers have been trying to put together a rescue deal for months, but talks broke down at the weekend, leaving the future of the store, which has 550 branches and employs around 10,000 staff, hanging in the balance. [..] "It's quite a complex deal," said one insider. "It was all going well until RBS walked away last week. There are still conversations going on." [..]

RBS is facing a series of tough decisions this year as a number of struggling high-street chains, including HMV and Clinton Cards, are reliant on its largesse. "Each company restructure is judged on its own merits, but clearly the difficult conditions that retailers face is an important factor," said an RBS spokesman. [..]

A string of high-street chains including La Senza, Blacks Leisure and Barratts Priceless have called in administrators in recent weeks as trading failed to produce enough cash to cover costs such as rent and interest payments on loans.

With the country in a recession, but hardly anyone willing to concede that to date, least of all its government, it's no wonder that things like this happen, mostly hidden from sight.

The ironic twist to it is provided by that fact that RBS is 70% owned by the British government, which has poured billions of pounds into the bank, and then lets it make decisions that cost 10's of 1000's of jobs.

I don't want to get into a political debate about this; however, protecting banks with taxpayer funds, but not jobs, is a decision that is of course as political as it is ironic. Letting bailed out bank executives make decisions that cut all these jobs and at the same time pay themselves multi-million dollar bonuses is way beyond ironic.

But all of the above is just today's prologue. I received an article yesterday that outdoes it all, and then some.

John Ross, Visiting Professor at Antai College of Economics and Management at Jiao Tong University in Shanghai writes a real stunner on his blog Key Trends in Globalisation:

The incredible shrinking UK economy

The magnitude of the blow suffered by the UK economy since the beginning of the financial crisis is very considerably minimized by not presenting it in terms of a common international yardstick. Gauged by decline in GDP, using a common international purchasing measure, dollars, no other economy in the world has shrunk even remotely as much as the UK.

As most countries produce only annualized GDP data it will be necessary to wait before a comprehensive global comparison can be made for 2011. However it is clear no substantial growth in dollar terms took place in the UK economy during that year – GDP at national current prices rose only 1.4 per cent between the 1st and 3rd quarters and the change in the pound’s exchange rate against the dollar during the year was a marginal 0.3 per cent.

Therefore there will have been no significant recovery from the UK data set out in Table 1 below, and the gap between the UK and other European economies, which form the next worst performing major group, is too great to have been qualitatively affected by changes in the Euro’s exchange rate – the Euro declined against the pound by only 3.3 per cent in 2011.

Table 1 shows that the fall in UK GDP in 2007-2010 was $562 billion compared to the next worst performing national economy, Italy, with a decline of $65 billion – i.e. the decline in UK GDP in the common measuring yardstick of dollars was more than 8 times that of the next worst performing national economy. Table 1 shows the 10 national economies suffering the greatest declines in dollar GDP.

It is also extremely striking that the UK’s decline was more than two and a half times that of the entire Eurozone.

The UK accounted for a somewhat astonishing 77% of the EU's decline.

Expressed in percentage terms the situation is no better. Of all economies for which World Bank data is available only Iceland, with a decline in dollar GDP of 38.4%, suffered a worst percentage fall than the UK - even bail out economy Ireland, with a fall of 18.4%, outperformed the UK economy.

Two trends intersected for the UK's performance to be so much worse than that of any other economy. First, contrary to the government's anti-European rhetoric, UK economic performance in constant price national currency terms has been significantly worse than the Eurozone during the financial crisis (Figure 2). [..]

... between the beginning of 2008 and the beginning of 2012, the pound's exchange rate has fallen by 21.0% against the dollar compared to the Euro's 11.4% drop in the same period. The multiplicative effect of the severity of the relative drop in constant price GDP and the fall in the pound's exchange rate accounts for the unequalled decline in UK GDP in dollars.

As at present the UK economy shows no substantial sign of recovery, the present UK government, which maintains a steadfastly ostrich like attitude towards Europe in particular, and most other countries in general, may argue that a measure in terms of dollars at current exchange rates is irrelevant – the UK currency is the pound and what counts is constant price shifts. Such an argument is false and an attempt to disguise the true scale of the decline of the UK economy.

The internationally unmatched decline in UK dollar GDP is a huge fall in real international purchasing ability. The far higher than targeted inflation in the UK during the last two years, which has substantially eroded the population's living standards, is itself in part a reflection of the decline in the UK's exchange rate and consequent raising of import prices. In short, the decline in the international purchasing power of the UK's economy translates into a direct fall in real incomes.

It may also be seen that the government's claim that the UK is outperforming Europe and the Eurozone is entirely without foundation even in constant price national currency terms. But when measured in terms of real international comparisons, i.e. in dollars, the UK's performance is incomparably worse than Europe's.

It appears extremely unlikely that the UK's economy will escape from this circle of decline in the next period. The austerity policies pursued by the present UK government have substantially slowed the economic recovery that was taking place in 2009 and the first part of 2010 - between the 3rd quarter of 2010 and the 3rd quarter of 2011 the UK economy grew by only 0.5%. [..]

Even if any partial recovery takes place, for example by some increase in the exchange rate of the pound against the Euro, the sheer magnitude of the decline in the UK economy makes it implausible that this could be on a scale sufficient to reverse the fall in its relative international position.

Britain lost 20% of GDP from 2007 - 2011. Against this backdrop, and don't let's forget the over-600% debt to GDP ratio just for Britain's financial sector, which will inevitably lead to more - calls for - bailouts, what is the Cameron government's response?

First of all, austerity measures. Which will hit those people very hard who are in the bottom 25% or so who already have no savings, no nothing, to fall back on. And which will also lead to a rise in unemployment, which in turn will exacerbate the vicious problem circle.

Cameron also distances himself, and his country, from continental Europe, even though that is Britain's main export destination. How smart is that?

Britain is a country of relatively large regional disparities as well as wealth disparities. The already rich center increasingly sucks up the remaining wealth of the periphery of society. There is then only one possible outcome of those one million people paying their rents and mortgages with payday loans: the British housing bubble will burst sooner rather than later.

Tax revenue has only one way to go as well. Down. So what will Cameron use to support the banks? How will he attempt to prevent a large scale repeat of last year's Tottenham riots?

Looking at all this, we also need to wonder how much longer, and why in the first place, Britain is perceived as a safe haven, with its sovereign bonds - gilts - much sought after. Sure, Britain has its own currency and central bank, it can "print", it can do QE 1001, but it's not as if it hasn't already tried that route. And still lost 20% of GDP.

Whatever it decides to do, it seems safe to presume that Britain might well steal some of the limelight away from Greece and Italy in the not too distant future.

2012-01-17T11:40:00.000+08:00

THE BOOTLEG FILES: MOTOWN 25 – YESTERDAY, TODAY, FOREVER

BOOTLEG FILES 410: “Motown 25 – Yesterday, Today, Forever” (1983 TV special featuring Michael Jackson, Marvin Gaye and the Supremes).

LAST SEEN: The full show is available in a six-part installment on YouTube.

AMERICAN HOME VIDEO: A VHS version was released, but no official DVD version has appeared.

REASON FOR BOOTLEG STATUS: The lack of a DVD release may be tied to problems with the clearance of music and performance rights.

CHANCES OF SEEING A COMMERCIAL DVD RELEASE: It is possible.

On March 25, 1983, California’s Pasadena Civic Auditorium was home to a one-shot TV special that reunited several of the major stars of the Motown record label. The resulting production was called “Motown 25 – Yesterday, Today, Forever” and it is mostly remembered for two sequences: the extraordinary performance of a non-Motown song and a smackdown between the members of one of Motown’s most celebrated acts.

Beyond those legendary moments, however, “Motown 25 – Yesterday, Today, Forever” was a fairly mundane production that offered a bumpy celebration of the record label’s illustrious history.
The show got off to a bad start with an opening number featuring the Lester Wilson Dancers performing a cheesy interpretation of “Dancing in the Street.” The show’s host, a visibly ill-at-ease Richard Pryor, followed them by reading his lines off a TelePrompTer with wide-eyed discomfort. Pryor lamely joked about the star-studded evening by claiming, “I’ve seen stars and I’ve seen studs.”

For those looking to enjoy a memory lane stroll, “Motown 25” provided a reunion of The Miracles, who performed a medley of four of their classic tunes, and Stevie Wonder performing a medley of six of his top-charting songs. In both cases, the presentations seemed perfunctory, as if none of the singers were too eager to revisit their classic work.

Nostalgia addicts were equally out of luck in a “battle of the bands” featuring The Four Tops and The Temptations – neither group seemed to be in top spirit for the show. Marvin Gaye, who had a bitter break-up with Motown years earlier, was not originally scheduled to perform. But he showed up and gave the show a much needed energy boost with a moving monologue on African American music history and an appropriately soulful performance of “What’s Going On.” In retrospect, his appearance was the most poignant part of the show – a year later, his father shot him to death during a domestic dispute.

Gaye’s star-turn was matched by a boisterous reunion of The Jacksons, who performed four of their top Motown songs. But the real star of this segment was Michael Jackson, whose solo career was taking off in 1983. Jackson (along with his brothers) left Motown years earlier and he was not particularly eager to be part of the production. He only agreed to appear if he could perform his then current hit single, “Billie Jean,” which was released by the Epic label.

What happened next, of course, changed the course of Jackson’s career and popular music. Jackson’s kinetic performance, complete with the first public presentation of the Moonwalk dance, created a sensation that had not been seen since the Beatles’ arrival on “The Ed Sullivan Show.” The taping of “Motown 25” had to be stopped in order for the electrified audience to regain its composure – and when the show was broadcast, Jackson was immediately elevated from a relatively benign pop star into a trend-setting music industry powerhouse based on this one number.

However, Jackson’s show stopping moment called attention to the problems with “Motown 25.” Despite its stellar line-up, few of the performers gave evidence of their talents. Two legendary ladies, Mary Wells and Martha Reeves, were only given about 30-seconds apiece to present samples of their best-known work – and, sadly, both women were far from their vocal primes. T.G. Sheppard, who recorded for Motown’s ill fated and mostly forgotten country music label in the 1970s, offered a bit of Nashville twang (which was completely out of place in the show’s line-up). Junior Walker and The Commodores also turned up, but neither sparked any fires. Lionel Richie, who abstained from a Commodores reunion, did a pre-taped solo turn and used his screen time to point out that the profits from the special were being used to finance sickle cell anemia research.

Even more confusing was the decision to bring out talent who had no connection to Motown. Adam Ant (of all people) performed an inane version of “Where Did Our Love Go?” while Linda Ronstadt did a duet with Smokey Robinson on “Tracks of My Tears” and “Ooh Baby Baby.” Dick Clark offered a brief overview of famous white artists who covered Motown tunes, Howard Hesseman and Tim Reid reprised their DJ characters from “WKRP in Cincinnati” and fast-talking comic actor John Moschitta Jr. also showed up on stage.

However, the most entertaining part of the production was never shown to the public: the notorious Supremes reunion, when Mary Wilson and Cindy Birdsong unexpectedly upstaged Diana Ross. Ross – who rejected a multi-song medley in favor of a single number – was initially confused as Wilson and Birdsong strayed from the choreography of their rehearsed routine and Wilson boldly took the lead vocals on “Someday We’ll Be Together.” But when Wilson closed the number by inviting Motown founder Berry Gordy Jr. to the stage, Ross reacted violently. Just what happened next has been in dispute – some sources say that Ross physically pushed Wilson down the stage, while other sources say that Ross merely pushed away Wilson’s microphone while she was speaking. The videotape of the segment has never been publicly screened, but the news of Ross’ hissy fit confirmed her reputation as an imperious diva and the incident soured Wilson and Birdsong from doing any further reunions with Ross.

But the Ross temper was not the only thing missing from the show. A number of major Motown legends, most notably Gladys Knight and the Pips, were absent from the stage, and no praise was given to the contributions of the Funk Brothers to the Motown sound. After the show was staged, news leaked that James Jamerson, an influential bassist in the Funk Brothers, was denied a ticket to the show and had to purchase a seat from a scalper. He died five months later from alcohol-related health complications.

NBC broadcast “Motown 25” on May 16, 1983, and the program attracted an estimated 47 million viewers. The show won an Emmy Award for Outstanding Variety, Music or Comedy Program and was nominated for eight other awards. Jackson and (inexplicably) Pryor received nominations for Outstanding Individual Performance in a Variety or Music Program, but they lost to soprano Leontyne Price for her guest star turn on PBS’ “Live from Lincoln Center.”
MGM/UA Home Video released “Motown 25” on VHS video in July 1991. To date, however, there has been no DVD release. One can easily assume that issues relating to clearing music and performance rights have held up the DVD premiere. However, it is easy to locate enterprising bootleggers who sell pirated DVD copies made from the VHS release, and the full program has an unauthorized presentation in six installments on YouTube.
But anyone finding “Motown 25” might be surprised at the quotidian nature of the offering. Beyond Jackson’s “Billie Jean,” the program is much less magical than many people may realize.

2012-01-17T11:37:00.000+08:00

Does China Has A Serial killers Crisis ?

Note: As we were finishing off this story about serial killers and mass murderers in China, news broke of a massive manhunt for murderer and armed robber Zeng Kaigui.
Yang Shubin looked the part: fat and rich. At nightclubs, he would say he ran a power station and buy expensive drinks. Women quickly swarmed around the flashy businessman who offered double the regular price for an evening’s company and would, sometimes even bring gifts. When the long nights drew to an end, Yang had no trouble persuading a girl to leave with him.
They probably thought themselves fortunate to land such a generous customer. After all, becoming mistress to a wealthy businessman is the ultimate career move for a karaoke girl in China. On returning to his apartment, therefore, they would have been surprised to find a woman already at the home: 20-year old Ji Hongzhie, Yang’s girlfriend — and partner-in-crime.
With the help of a pair of childhood friends from Heilongjiang, Wu Hongye and Zhang Yulian, they would tie the woman to a chair, then beat her with sticks and iron bars, demanding bank details. Yang liked to slap their bare flesh with a spatula while his girlfriend needled their breasts, arms and legs. Later, after withdrawing the cash — the amounts ranging from 60,000 to 500,000 yuan — they would force some victims to call their colleagues to persuade them to come over to the trap.
The bodies would later be chopped up, boiled and fed through a meat-mincing machine. Large bones would be crushed up with clamps, and added to the meaty paste which the gang would dump in drains or trash cans outside hotels and restaurants. Between 1998 and 2004, they made about 2 million yuan this way but, despite staying on the move, decamping from Shenzhen to Zhejiang, there were worries about getting caught.
In Guangzhou in 2001, one pair of sisters, kept captive for 13 days, spotted axes, saws, tape and garbage bags through a doorway. Realizing the TV had been on the same channel for hours — suggesting the apartment was empty — the two struggled loose and escaped. One had been so brutally tortured she needed breast implants.
After barely evading capture on that occasion, the gang’s luck was running out. The following year, in the northern city of Jilin, a resident of an apartment complex investigating a blocked pipe found mangled body parts. Arrest warrants were issued but all four of the gang members escaped on September 11, 2002 — then vanished. For nearly a decade, it seemed as if they had gotten away with murder, slipping into China’s migrant population without even a trail of public outrage or scrutiny.
But Harbin policeman Xu Jianguo did not forget. Having grown up in the same neighborhood as both gang members Yang and Wu, Xu had a personal interest in seeing the case through to the end. And in 2007, the Harbin Public Security Bureau learned it had gotten hot again: Yang’s family was reported to have moved abruptly, en masse, whereabouts unknown. An intensive investigation eventually led Xu, now with his own dedicated task force, to Baotou in Inner Mongolia, and the busy family home of one Wang Xuekai. Wang shared his quarters with 11 others, including brother Wang Xueli, Xueli’s girlfriend Ma Haiyan and Wangxue Guo — all, it was to emerge, expertly forged identities. On November 3, 2011, an armed team raided the property and arrested the gang of four; a month later, with the world focused on a peasant uprising in Wukan, their capture was publicly announced.
Almost ten years after their last victims — two prostitutes robbed of 160,000 yuan — were found stuffed down a drain, Yang Shubin’s kill team were discovered playing happy families, running a successful foot massage parlour and billiard room. The Harbin police view the case as both a major success — and an unprecedented case in recent history.
But the case is not unprecedented.
“China has a serial killer problem,” Beijing criminologist Professor Peng Weimin (a pseudonym by his request) told me over a two hour dinner of dumplings in Beijing. Sipping from his beer, small flecks of grey in his donnish black hair, Peng reeled off a series of anecdotes concerning various killers from the past. He knew the details of some cases, but often he was able to offer just outlines: prostitutes that washed up on a river bank in Shenzhen, tales from a north-eastern city where dozens of schoolchildren never came home.
Some of the serial killers whose crimes have been documented in the Chinese media and academic journals include the below (note that some of these are taken from yeshi (野史- unverified popular histories).
Tu Guiwu, a loan shark who stabbed and dismembered eight in Chengdu;
Chen Yongfeng , sentenced to death at the age of just 20 for murdering 10 people and throwing their body parts in a river over three months in 2003;
Li Zhanguo , a multiple sodomist who killed at least 11 between 1991 and 1995, exclusively targeting male villagers with severe learning difficulties;
Wu Jianchen , another serial rapist from Hebei responsible for 15 murders in 1993;
Huang Yong , a pederast who killed either 17 or 25 teenage boys between 2001 and 2003;
Chen Zhengping , arrested in Henan in 2002 for the deaths of at least 42, including children, after lacing rice balls at a rival snack bar with rat poison;
Peng Maiji , who used a meat cleaver to murder 77 in Shanxi, Jiangsu, Anhui and Henan, executed in 2000;
Wang Qiang , executed in 2003 for the murders of 45;
Li Shangxi, Yang Mingjin and Li Shangkuan , a Guanxi trio who committed 26 murders together between 1981 and 1989;
Yang Xinhai , the “Monster Killer” perhaps the most famous Chinese serial killer and mass murderer.

Monster Killer Yang Xinhai

In 2006, after an hour-long, closed trial, Yang was convicted of killing 65 men, women and children (the highest tally of victims of a single killer in the US, by contrast, is 48).
Yang was an intelligent but introverted child, born into desperate poverty in Henan, who dropped out of school and began drifting through Shanxi, Shaanxi and Hebei taking work as an occasional labourer.
Aged 20, Yang Xinhai did his first stretch of prison time for theft; eight years later, he served three years of a five-year sentence for attempted rape, before being released in 1999. At some point in those three years, Yang went from being a sullen petty criminal to an all-out maniac.
Nothing quite explains the escalation or intensity of Yang’s actions after he got out of jail – he bicycled around Henan, Hebei, Anhui and Shandong breaking into homes at night and murdering the occupants, often whole families – his biggest single “kill” was five. He used hammers, shovels and axes to bludgeon and chop his victims. Sometimes he had sex with the women’s bodies.
The Chinese press cited the usual factors behind his going amok: greed, irrational hatred of women – his girlfriend supposedly broke up with him — and “revenge against society.” Commercial gain, girl trouble or a kind of all-purpose societal rage are habitually used to explain away otherwise-unfathomable crimes such as Yang’s; there is, experts shake their heads, no method to the madness. Indeed, it was only a random spot-check at a nightclub in Cangzhou that caught him. Yang, whose details were on file from previous convictions, was wanted in four provinces for mass murder. Yet it took a background check for the cops to realize they had the country’s most-wanted non-political criminal in their cells.
“There used to be strict hukou (household registration) regulations which forbade people from flowing around,” said Professor Peng. “It doesn’t work like that anymore these days: people can go anywhere they want, which means police don’t have effective control of who’s in their district doing what.”
Allowing free-flow of labor to modernize industry has also enabled predators — and victims — to roam the provinces as anonymous hired hands and has helped create the kind of society that enables those who reject it to strike back the hardest.
“When I killed people I had a desire [to kill more]. This inspired me to kill more,” Yang confessed. “I don’t care whether they deserve to live or not. It is none of my concern… I have no desire to be part of society. Society is not my concern.”
***
Beijing, considered one of the world’s safest cities, provides no refuge from serial killers:

Li Pingping - taxi driver and murderer of prostitutes

There’s Li Pingping, a Beijing taxi driver who killed his former boss and family in 1995 and a further four prostitutes with the bad luck to catch his cab between 2002 and 2003. He was apparently angry that they out-earned him.
14 prostitutes operating near the Great Wall Sheraton were also killed by Beijing-born Hua Ruizhou in 2003.
In May 2011, Song Jinghua was executed for killing nine in a bizarre bid to avenge his brother, who was caught and executed for another murder after, Song suspected, his girlfriend tipped off police. Song was only caught in 2007 when a neighbour spotted him trying to conceal a human head.
“And in the 1990s, there was another guy who was especially killing prostitutes in Shijingshan district in Beijing,” added Peng. “It originally started because he used to have sex-workers as neighbours. They annoyed him by coming home late and making too much noise.”
***
A long day’s drive southwest of Beijing and or northwest from Shanghai, Henan is China’s least celebrated, most populous province. Henan is a by-word for criminality. It’s hard to exaggerate the contempt in which the central-eastern province is held by outsiders. If hearsay is to be believed, Henan is to blame for virtually every thief, grafter and deadbeat the country has ever had to offer. It’s also may be the serial-killer capital of China.
According to Professor Peng “Henan alone has several cases. Recently, there was one guy who killed six well-off men. He had a homicide charge hanging over him originally, so he had to escape. What he did was ride a scooter-taxi around, taking passengers and killing some. The murders were for money. There are also serial child killers. There was one who put up a wooden rocking-horse in his backyard to lure kids there and kill them. He was convicted of killing six, although the bodies found in his yard amounted to more than 10.”
Another pair of killers from Henan fled the province in 2003 after one, Shen Changying, stabbed a man to death. He and his brother Shen Chanping, 22, went north to Hubei, where they abducted and robbed a prostitute, killed her and dismembered the body. The next potential victim, Li Chunling, 23, persuaded them to spare her in exchange for luring more potential marks back to the apartment. Li was made to kill the woman she brought back before things got even more twisted: the pair of killers removed the girl’s kidney and ate it, before dissolving her body in sulfuric acid. The robbery-cannibalism continued across Shanxi, Anhui and Inner Mongolia, recruiting more female accomplices as bait before one of them finally escaped and went to police, who caught the brothers in the act of dissolving pieces of their latest victim.
In 2005, they were sentenced to death for the murders of 11 women, all picked up in KTV bars and “hair salons,” while their three female accomplices received between 3 and 20 years imprisonment.
***
More recently, in September 2011, Chinese journalists began arriving in the city of Luoyang in Henan. The story they were following was grim, if familiar: Gangs selling “hogwash” or “gutter” oil, recycled from restaurant drains, had been busted with 100 tons of the stuff in Shandong, Zhejiang and Henan. Authorities were touting it as a major safety initiative but many suspected there was more to the official version.
After crusading local television journalist Li Xiang, who broke the story, let his Weibo followers know he was “following illegal cooking oil dens closely,” he was found dead – stabbed 13 times outside his apartment in the early hours of a Sunday morning. The police insisted this was nothing more than an unfortunate coincidence. Rather than being silenced by shadowy interests, Li was simply the victim of a botched mugging: two local ruffians were subsequently charged with robbery and murder.
Ji Xuguang, a reporter with Southern Metropolis Daily, one of China’s most progressive newspapers, was also in town to see if, like the gutter-oil story, there was more to Luoyang and Li’s death than its ongoing Civilized City campaign would have him believe.
In fact, there was something going on but it had nothing to do with Li. Police had received information from the relative of a woman who claimed to have escaped from an “underground sex dungeon.” Five other women had also been held captive, tortured and raped; two were now dead, though at whose hands is somewhat disputed.
Their gaoler was Li Hao, 34, a former fireman and employee at the technological supervision bureau in Luoyang who had spent the past 22 months cruising karaoke bars in Luoyang picking up victims, while his wife thought he was working as a part-time night watchman.
The women were kept in a remarkably sophisticated underground prison four meters under a rented basement behind seven iron doors, fed enough to keep them weak and given access to laptops for entertainment. Li killed one, allegedly with the connivance of one of his prisoners — a kind of Stockholm Syndrome apparently pervaded the dungeon, with detainees competing for Li’s attention — and another girl was put to death for “disobedience.”
After Li was caught fleeing, the police hoped to deal with the matter quietly. But Ji, working for a powerful media organization outside their jurisdiction, had inconveniently got hold of the story. Ji was stopped and questioned closely by police (though not, he stressed to me when I spoke to him over the phone, arrested or “detained,” as the New York Times later suggested) and warned he was infringing upon potential “state secrets” – a catch-all term often used to harass or persecute reporters who publish unfavorable stories.
Ji exited the province and published.
The alleged serial rapist-murderer Li suffered full and swift consequences: after a week, the Guangzhou Daily reported Li was “fired from [his] inspection team under the Bureau of Quality and Technical Supervision of Luoyang”; he was stripped of his Party membership and will be put on trial. All four police under whose auspices the crimes took place were dismissed. Controversially, the women he’d held were also detained and even accused of conspiracy to commit murder.
Although Li’s acts don’t quite fit the definition of “serial killer” espoused by some experts (which requires three separate murders), kidnapping six and killing two doesn’t seem a bad place to start. How does someone get away kidnapping and killing for so long without anyone noticing?
When I asked Professor Peng this question, he said “They were hookers. Their status was low, so no one cared.”
***
Targeting sex workers and migrants and staying on the move is the formula that many of China’s serial killers use with success. Lackadaisical cross-provincial law enforcement is one of the two biggest flaws in the China’s policing system (the other is press censorship that keeps crimes from being exposed in the media).
“Regarding crimes committed in other places, the police will avoid getting involved as much as possible,” said Peng. “Solving other police forces’ cases won’t contribute to their performance assessment… the slogan “Homicides must be solved” is talking about cases in one’s own district. You’ll be blamed for failing to solve them, and [you won't get credit] for cases in other places. Assisting others is not their responsibility.”
Of course, a culture of local police looking after their own is hardly exclusive to China. But it gets worse: “It can be tricky when police actually catch criminals from other places. They can’t be sent to the local reformatory because they don’t belong there. They can’t be sent back to their hometowns because of the costs.” These might include train tickets, accommodation or hospitality for their opposite numbers in the public security bureau. With rare exceptions, such costs fall on the arresting division.
The result is cops dealing with crime by focusing on local criminals and deploying scarecrow tactics — creating the illusion of a heavy security presence in the community via “flashing police lights and CCTV cameras” — to deter migrant criminals from settling in their areas.
The obvious solution would be an autonomous, state-run centralized bureau of criminal investigation like the FBI.
“Currently, when a homicide occurs, a central investigation team will be set up by the Crime Investigation Bureau [CIB] under the Ministry of Public Security and sent to the location where the major investigation started, organising and supervising the case’s solution,” Peng said, outlining the official view: “In the US, states are independent from each other so it’s necessary to coordinate them but in China, the policy issued from the central government will be passed down and carried out thoroughly to the bottom of the system, so there’s no need for such a coordinating system.”
Certainly, China’s police are evolving. There are a few forensics labs in major cities and a nationwide database that registers suspects and fugitives from across the country — the same one that caught Yang, the “Monster Killer”. The centralized CIB employs veteran policemen as well as scientific and academic staff like forensics specialists and lie-detection experts. But it often serves a political end. The official line towards crimes like murder since 1983 is “the heavier, the faster, the better,” was softened in 2009 to “heavy and light punishment combined.”
The CIB is normally brought in to deal with cases that threaten public stability — for example, the notorious 2010 school stabbings by Zheng Mingsheng — and answer to ministerial ends. In the case of Zheng the school stabber, the ministries for education and public security jockeyed with each other to issue sterner denunciations and assurances over future security, against the advice of experts, who warned that propaganda slogans were worthless against “big, unpredictable cases committed by nobodies.”
Meanwhile out in the sticks, where the mountains remain high and the emperor is still far away, policies are frequently ignored. The Ministry of Public Security issued police forces with new directives in 2003 to warn the public of potential serial killers after the much-publicized case of a child-murderer from Henan (again!), the main feature of which was a spectacularly inept police investigation:

Huang Yong, rapist and killer of teenage boys

Huang Yong was a 27-year-old former PLA soldier turned migrant worker who’d ended up alone in his parents’ home in Dahuang village, Pingyu County, a tumbledown abode of ramshackle brick houses, barely surviving trees and rubble-strewn yards. While most Henan youths had headed east looking for work, Huang stayed behind while his parents worked in the city and sent money home, which Huang used to support his habit — hanging around Internet cafes in Pingyu city, offering advice to teenage boys who’d drop by after school to play computer games. In September 2001, the family of one raised the alarm after their son didn‘t come home. Both police and, later, the schools involved refused to offer help finding them.
“The police kept quiet in case of social panic, so other parents weren’t aware and couldn’t take precautions,” Peng said. “More and more kids went missing.” One escaped with bruises around his neck and went to authorities with his story; apparently convinced it was a prank, they sent him home. A week later, Huang was arrested.
To this day, the official number of victims is fiercely disputed among local villagers, who also claim Huang kept victims’ genitals in a jar and became murderous after his girlfriend had an abortion and left him. The authorities say Huang watched too “many kung-fu and violent films” and haven’t deviated from the initial figure of 17 victims: all boys, all chosen, according to the court, because females were “less heroic” and older men “more vigilant.” But a year after Huang was tried and executed, a group of grieving parents visited the late killer’s residence during the annual Tomb-Sweeping Festival and uncovered more remains in his abandoned yard. Some have been petitioning Beijing for justice since before even Huang’s arrest, receiving only harassment and attempted bribes for their troubles.
The new edict, ordering officials to warn of potential murderers in the community, should have prevented the public from being kept ignorant of future investigations. But three years later, Ministry of Public Security spokesman Wu Heping was facing the cameras in Beijing and telling reporters much the same story. The location was different but the modus operandi of both police and killer was almost exactly the same: 33-year-old Gong Runbo, a convicted rapist who’d been trolling internet cafes in Heilongjiang Province looking for impressionable kids much like Huang. Over 10 pairs of children’s shoes were allegedly later found in Gong’s abode but police say there was only evidence enough to charge him with six deaths.
“Six kids may have died for our failings,” Wu admitted. The police had known someone was abducting children but kept it quiet, in disobedience of the 2003 directive. And the Ministry knew who the blame lay with: “Despite the government’s ban on minors in Internet bars,” Wu chafed, “Gong was taking these kids in and out without being confronted or reported by the local cafe.”
***
2003 was a bumper year for serial killers. Yang Xinhai the Monster Killer’s capture coincided with two other major cases. Huang Yong, the aforementioned killer of 17 or 25 teenage boys was arrested, and so was another paiir of killers: 43-year old Ma Yong and his 20-year-old female accomplice Duan Zhiqun who were arrested in Buji, Longgang District near Shenzhen for the murder of 12 female migrants picked up in labour markets, dismembered and dumped in a local river.
The official reason given for the murders of a dozen desperate workers was textbook China: The victims “had mobile phones” and “looked physically weak”. The killers “were motivated by money,” Xu, a Buji government spokesman, said.
If murdering migrants for money doesn’t seem to make sense, consider another deeply troubling case from 2009 in Shenzhen. The “special economic zone” is principally famed for its preferential policies to attract foreign investment and promote domestic entrepreneurialism, but Shenzhen is fast catching up with Henan in being known for its serial killers. According to one sociologist, “Shenzhen’s most special trait is its people’s high mobility and mutual strangeness… which means many social norms go unobserved here.”
The remark referred to a series of child kidnappings and murders that haunted the boom city in 2008 and 2009. According to the Global Times,

Shenzhen, one of the richest cities in China, is now haunted by kidnappings. Deputy Police Chief Shen Shaobao was quoted by the Guangdong and Shanghai media stating in a July press release that the city averaged 44 kidnapping cases a month in the first quarter. A total 52 kidnapping cases were reported in the first 20 days of April.

Child kidnappings are old news in China – 190 children disappear every day, mostly, it is believed, to trafficking gangs, though no-one really has any idea how many simply fall prey to independent, transient abductors. The victims’ families are normally poor, rural and illiterate. Their cases are dealt with perfunctorily — if at all — by overworked or uninterested police forces and there’s very little parents can do for their missing offspring.
In the Shenzhen cases, though, the families were well-to-do — and vocal in their distress. Despite their protests, which were covered in the media, police were as dozy and unforthcoming as ever, an attitude which compounded the pain and even exacerbated the problem.
“I wish the police publicized the cases,” one bereaved father told the Southern Metropolis Daily, adding that, had he only known of the existence of the kidnappings, he might have been able to prevent his own son’s disappearance.
Wang Weilan, a reporter who covered the case for the Global Times, witnessed first-hand the authorities’ stonewalling of inquiries.
“The police refused to give any information,” she told me. “They either said, ‘It’s still under investigation,’ or ‘I know nothing about that. The leader in charge isn’t here’ or ‘Give us a fax about your questions’ and then they totally ignored the fax.”
Chinese government bureaus are possibly the only ones that still routinely direct official inquiries to be delivered via fax, a neat trick that abrogates any responsibility for answering.
Keeping a lid on rumours, sometimes called “fake news” — is something of an obsession in China, where the dissemination of incorrect information is actually a crime that can land an unwary gossip in in jail. The culture of secrecy and the prevalence of fake news effectively feed off each other. In 1997, Shanghai was awash with talk of a woman-hating murderer on a motorcycle; the killer was targeting girls with long hair and bludgeoning them to death with a hammer; he was taunting authorities with letters, boasting of his deeds — he had killed ten, they said, and wouldn’t stop until 100 were dead; a police chief tasked with stopping him had already resigned in despair.
While Shanghainese women supposedly rushed to get haircuts, the city’s media stayed stubbornly silent. Finally, as panic mounted, the police abruptly announced they had got their man: a migrant worker called Wei Guangxiu had been arrested and charged with attacking 13 middle-aged women and one man. For the public, though, the story didn’t end there. “The rumors have poisoned and bewitched people’s minds,” a senior officer afterwards lamented. He was right: most people suspected Wei was a scapegoat.
“Local police, for the sake of regional peace, sometimes fail to do inform the public,” said Professor Peng, who added Beijing that technically directs them to do just the opposite. “The reason partly comes from public pressure too. The public reckon the police are incompetent if there’s any case they can’t solve… the public’s petition channel is far less developed than in the West and media is still the major pressure that the police face.”
“Social stability” — maintaining a grip on power as well as public perception– trumps concerns such as public safety. The scarcity of reliable information in Shenzhen even extended until after the inevitable guilty verdicts were handed down. “The court wanted to be very careful about the verdict,” Weilan said. “People were very angry about the cases: They had to consider [that] anger.”
While the relaxation of the hukou system has enabled people to disappear and be disappeared, the country’s economic explosion has placed a desperate strain on social tensions; the sprawling disparity between the have-nots and the have-a-lots has never been greater.
“Shenzhen is a city of migrant workers and successful people,” Weilan noted. “The former is desperate, the latter is established… When they share the same city, problems occur.” The city’s population of nine million has a GDP per capita of around $13,000, the highest in China (the average is $7,544). “Many people in Shenzhen come to the city as first-generation immigrants,” she added. “They don’t have roots here and thus have fewer conventional constraints. The criminals are more reckless.”
In society, those who choose children as their victims are considered the lowest caste of criminal, despised even by their own kind. In China, crimes against children are arguably even more sensitive. There is a traditionally filial culture, where offspring are expected to provide for older generations and the country’s family-planning policy can mean an only child is a family’s sole source of survival. Yet even in this most sensitive of areas, the police cut a swathe of incompetence.
Still, victims’ families are at least promised swift justice. With a conviction rate of 98% (according to Criminal Justice in China: a History by Klaus Mühlhahn, Harvard University Press, 2009), an arrest is tantamount to a death sentence. The sentence is carried out almost as swiftly as it is handed down, usually within three months; Huang Yong was convicted of 17 murders less than a month after being arrested and executed 15 days later (“the heavier, the faster, the better”). Cheaper, too: while the average Death Row inmate costs the great state of Texas $2.3 million in legal and incarceration bills to incarcerate and then execute, for example, the taxpayer goes relatively unburdened in China.
So villains are quickly scrubbed off the face of the earth, and with them goes any chance of understanding what made them turn to serial murder. In one example Professor Peng gave of how determined authorities in China are to keep civilian expertise at bay, Li Meijin, a University of Public Security expert, eventually had to submit her questionnaire to the police for Qiu Jinhua, a Shaanxi serial killer of 11, via a contact at the People’s Daily.
***
After the 2003 execution of Yang, the People’s Daily offered some reassuring news for the reading public: the Ministry of Public Security had called a “special meeting… ordering police around the country [to] try harder to deal with severe crimes involving murder [and] kidnapping.”
Eight years later in 2011, the propaganda department was hard at work on the Luoyang sex slaves case, issuing a September 22 order to local media in Henan to desist reporting on it. It was a busy month for them: the US-based China Digital Times revealed more directives hushing up a series of “vicious murder cases” in Guiyang County in Hunan — and an even juicier story that wouldn’t see the light of day, back (once again) in Henan.
The townsfolk of Fangyuan, an isolated “no man’s land” (according to a now-deleted Southern Metropolitan article) awoke one morning “shocked” after discovering a neighbour had been arrested and charged with being a serial cannibal; Xiao Lansheng had stayed up just the night before playing cards with them. In his spare time, Xiao is alleged to have raped, butchered and turned into medicinal wine the bodies of “at least” five 12-year-old schoolgirls. Hair, a human skull and female underwear were found at his property, a former Buddhist nunnery later used as living quarters for 1970s “educated youth,” and accessible only via a dirt road.
Here “he distilled their hearts to make baijiu and squeezed oil from their hands and feet.” Another reports claimed he “invited friends and family to eat them, saying they were exotic animals hunted from the mountain.” A media blackout was quickly imposed.
Awkward questions, rumors and the all-consuming concern for public face: It is these concerns, not marauding murderers or public safety, not vulnerable women or missing children, which keep officials awake at night –and the bogeymen safe in their beds.
Update:
As this story was being edited, China added yet another serial killer to its expanding list. a massive manhunt is currently underway for former cop Zeng Kaigui — with 13,000 officers, two helicopters, road blocks and a massive publicity campaign keeping citizens aware of the danger.
That sounds like a proper serial-killer investigation, so what’s changed? Nothing — in the system — but the circumstances are exceptional. Firstly, the police have the culprit positively identified; not only that, he’s one of their own, a former PLA military policeman gone tonto. That’s a major embarrassment (with potential consequences for local authorities) where it’s better to lose some face now than risk your neck further down the line. Second, his most recent crime was almost impossible to cover up: a 200,000-yuan bank heist in downtown Nanjing that ended with a fatal shooting.
But Zeng has been on the radar since as far back as 1995, and performing robbery-murders since 2004. There’s a sense this is a last-resort tactic, presumably sanctioned at a very high provincial level, as police officers in different provinces have upped his bounty substantially. The China Daily says “Numerous police forces are now offering rewards for his arrest, including Chongqing – 100,000 yuan($15,800), Nanjing – 150,000 yuan and Ma’anshan, Anhui province, 200,000 yuan. State media have suggested that Zeng is some kind of Chinese Rambo, “a marksman… skilled at avoiding surveillance,” adept at disguise, having been on the run for years, and who communicates only via grunts and body language. Last time anything like this happened was November, when a quartet of four (underage, unthreatening) soldiers in Jilin stole a rifle, hoping to pull off a few bank jobs then skip the country, but got tracked down and shot dead within a day. The story was completely buried in China —
there was no initial danger to social stability, not enough to the public, and the army is shrouded in so much hyper-sensitivity, even the names of regiments are state secrets. With Zeng, the factors have changed; the priorities remain the same.
The author Robert Foyle Hunwick can be reach on foylehunwick -at- gmail.com.
Links and sources
Time magazine : Blood in the Streets by Matthew Forney
South China Morning Post magazine : Dead Reckoning, by Didi Kirsten Tatlow (not available online)
Global Times : Schoolchild murders haunt boom city by Wang Weilan
China Geeks: Living with Dead Hearts (documentary film in production about child kidnappings)
Ynet.com: 实拍10人碎尸命案抓捕杀人魔王肢解小姐堵下水道
My 399.com: 终极对决 ———“9·11”杀人碎尸案追踪系列二
Sina special on Monster Killer Yang Xinhai: 杨新海杀67人强奸23被判死刑
Wenku: 掰一掰中国的连环杀手
Douban: 档案一. 中华人民共和国最早的连环杀手之一
Baidu Baike: 白宝山
Jinling Ziyi blog: 东北二王千里追击，“东北二王”杀人案件全剖析
Shen Xinyun’s blog: 广西李尚昆，杨名金犯罪团伙-1989, 保定连环杀人恶魔吴建臣-1993
Sina: 黄勇狱中接受采访：作为杀手我不相信任何人，平舆特大杀人案犯黄勇自述一个杀手的心路历程, 河南平舆特大系列杀人案
Netease: 杀死分尸 6幼童连环杀手宫润伯的人生裂变
Sina: 北京破获出租车司机杀害卖淫女特大碎尸案

2012-01-17T11:35:00.001+08:00

Greece Will Become Zimbabwe

Hedge Fund On Greek Eurozone Exit: 'The Word Catastrophic Would Not Do It Justice'

From Reuters via Ekathimerini, London-based hedge fund Toscafund is warning of Zimbabwe-like hyperinflation should Greece attempt to leave the Euro.

In a stark note to clients, chief economist Savvas Savouri said introducing a new currency instantaneously in the wake of a euro exit would be impossible and the delay would lead to «a run on banks and evacuation of capital that would make what has already been seen as nothing by comparison».

"The word catastrophic would not do it justice enough,» said Savouri, who comes from a Greek Cypriot background.

Fund sees Zimbabwe-style inflation if Greece exits euro

A Greek exit from the euro zone would be worse than catastrophic and could provoke greater social unrest, Zimbabwe-style inflation and a military coup, said London-based hedge fund firm Toscafund.

In a stark note to clients, chief economist Savvas Savouri said introducing a new currency instantaneously in the wake of a euro exit would be impossible and the delay would lead to «a run on banks and evacuation of capital that would make what has already been seen as nothing by comparison».

"The word catastrophic would not do it justice enough,» said Savouri, who comes from a Greek Cypriot background.

"Those who imagine some post-euro-exit stability would be restored ... quite simply fail to understand the magnitude -- social, economic and political -- of such an eventuality."

Toscafund said it invests solely in equities and does not give details of its positions.

Earlier this week German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the goal was for no country to leave the euro, as negotiations between debt-laden Greece and its creditors continue ahead of a major bond redemption in March.

Savouri said he would expect the euro to remain the currency of choice in Greece even if it left the euro and for the official exchange rate with the euro to be quickly undercut on the black market.

He predicted a range of problems for the country, from hyperinflation, extreme difficulty for the government in raising money on bond markets and an evacuation of people able to leave the country, taking as much wealth as they can with them.

"Inflation in Greece would quite frankly spiral in a way resembling Zimbabwe's experience,» said Savouri, who also predicted severe poverty amongst the elderly.

"The social unrest seen up until now in Greece would be nothing compared with what would be seen in the dawn of a new drachma."

"It would not be hyperbole to argue that the denouement of a Greek exit from the euro would be at worst the rise of poisonous political extremists and at best a military coup."

Last year Savouri produced research notes saying that reunification between North and South Korea was «certain» and that South Africa was flawed and set to «blow up» within the next 15 years.

2012-01-17T11:32:00.001+08:00

中國房市泡沫破裂第一響

在2011年，許多中國開發商被迫開始拋售房屋。因此造成價格削減30%、40%、甚至50％。圖為2011 年4月14日，北京房屋銷售會上，一位房屋銷售代理舉著廣告牌吸引顧客。（AFP）

最近幾年分析家不斷提出警告，中國房地產泡沫隱然形成，

最近這個勢頭更加明顯。兩個月前，上海地產開發商開始削減新建豪華公寓價格達三分之一。一些最近以高價購買公寓的屋主群聚在銷售辦事處，要求退款。北京清華大學經濟管理學院副教授程致宇（Patrick Chovanec）12月18日在《外交事務》雜誌撰文指出，專家的警告似乎已經成真。一旦中國房市泡沫破裂，不只中國，連國際經濟都會受到嚴重波及，不過中國房地產泡沫的破裂並非都是壞事。

突然之間，中國各地的房地產市場發生大幅降價的現象。根據房地產網站鏈家在線（Homelink）的消息，北京新屋價格在11月單單一個月就下滑了 35%，而且房價暴跌可能會持續一段時間。中原地產（Centaline）估計，開發商在北京有22個月未售出的空屋量，上海則是21個月。

每個人現在都擔心，中國房價大降預示了「這個世紀最大的泡沫」即將破裂，影響層面不只是中國，也包括國際社會。
前景黯淡逃生無路

未來的前景看來是格外暗淡，因為情勢一旦急轉直下，根本沒有逃生之路。一旦中國的投資者因恐慌而急於退場，他們會發現，很難找到買方。北京讓房地產市場白熱化太久了，當被迫需採取行動時，市場已經不相信政府。

中國的投資者，無論資本大小，都在創造市場。十餘年來，他們認為房價會一直上升是長期趨勢，有人甚至購買十幾間房子，然後讓房屋空在那裡。估計這種閒置的房子，有1000萬到6500萬間之間。

空置房地產熱大部分是因為缺乏其他的的投資途徑。

中共當局嚴格控制資本流出，使得大多數中國人無法在海外投資。中國銀行存款的利率很低，去年甚至低於消費者物價指數膨脹率。大眾把中國國內過去幾年來大幅起落的股票交易，看成是高風險的賭場。相對而言，中國自從1990年代開放私有房屋所有權之後，房地產投資反而像是一個長期保本的賭注。
為了維持將近10%的GDP成長，中共擴大貨幣供給將近三分之二。房地產本來就是中國人喜歡投資的標的，如此一來，房地產價格更是因勢上揚：在許多地方，新屋的價格在短短的兩年增加了一倍。

投機哄抬房價，讓實際需要住房的人陷入了困境。

以2011年春天房價為例，北京一般受薪階級可能需要工作36年，才能買到一間普通的房子，而相對地，在新加坡則只需要18年，在紐約只需要12年，而在法蘭克福更只要5年。哄抬價格的戰爭更進一步的逼迫開發商建築更昂貴的房子，這些房子是投資者所渴望的，但卻只有少數百姓買得起。

建商拋售房價下跌

先前房地產市場的白熱化促使開發商持續地建築大量的房產，房地產投資每年成長了將近30%。但是通膨從2010年的1.5%上升到2011年 6.5%的高峰，當局才開始煩惱。

他們加大了冷卻市場的力量。央行緊縮信用擴張，中國的經濟開始緩慢下來了。2011年時，開發商必須找到新的融資管道，以維持其積壓的庫存。他們以前依賴銀行貸款，直到貸款被緊縮；然後依賴香港的高獲利債券，直到市場惡化；然後是依恃私人投資工具，最後在某些情況之下是依靠高利貸。在2011年夏末，許多中國開發商已經用盡了辦法，於是被迫開始拋售。因此造成價格削減30%、40%、甚至50％。

最大的懸而未決的問題是﹕所有買房卻讓房子閒置成為「鬼」公寓及別墅的現有投資者，是否將加入拋售行列？果真如此的話，可能造成市場陷入崩潰的局面。雖然目前為止，投資人拋售空屋還未出現，但11月北京舊屋價格僅下滑3%，交易數量卻暴跌50％（深圳交易量也下降了50％、天津57％、長沙79％），這些數字說明了許多投資者願意賣出房子，但卻難以找到買主。想買房者現在傾向等待，以找尋更好的交易。
房市惡化影響國內外

中國房市的惡化不只影響國內以賣地籌措資金的地方政府及國內相關產業，也將波及到國際社會相關的產業。

根據中原地產的計算， 11月有超過100筆地方政府的土地拍賣失敗，且2011年北京的土地銷售收益下降了15%。沒有這些收益，地方政府無法償還為建設計畫設施所借的鉅額款項，也無法償還他們為保持明年GDP成長的多餘債款。

房地產的難題已經讓中國經濟發出警訊。大部分由建築業所驅動之 中國的鋼鐵生產，從2011年 6月以來已經下滑了15%，且將近三分之一的中國鋼鐵製造者目前都在賠本狀態。深圳已經有一半的房地產經紀人關門了。

在一些諸如沿海的溫州及煤炭資源豐富的鄂爾多斯等城市，房地產價格的崩塌引發了全面爆發的信貸危機，已經出現商人跳樓的報導，有些正在逃離中國。北京已經准許溫州的銀行，擴大緊急貸款給陷入困境的借款人。當然官員可能會只給予開發商足夠的廉價貸款，以停止拋售，使他們能夠保持庫存。但是這種策略有再度助長泡沫膨脹。

房地產建設目前約占中國總GDP的10%，比2005年美國房市泡沫時的高峰超出了4個百分點。

房地產的巨大損失及相關的借貸問題也可能傷害中國投資者及消費者的信心，房市下滑也將對國際社會造成衝擊。助長中國建築業熱潮的國際供應商，從澳洲及巴西的鐵砂礦業者、智利的銅礦業者、加拿大及蘇俄的橡膠業者及諸如機具製造商卡特彼勒（Caterpillar）和Komatsu等，可能都會受到嚴重的打擊。

因禍得福﹖

雖然泡沫破裂聽來讓人害怕，但中國房地產泡沫破裂並非都是壞消息。更便宜、更買得起的住房也可能打開中國工薪階層家庭的儲蓄，釋放出更大的消費者需求，以幫助重新平衡全球經濟，長期閒置於房地產的資金也可以流向更有效率的產業。這些調整已經被拖延太久了，這就是何以儘管有風險，中共當局也不得不採行修正措施的原因，然而，他們知道他們如今已經是走在剃刀邊緣上了。

2012-01-17T11:30:00.000+08:00

忘恩負義的垃圾民族

「凡是愚弱的國民，即使體格如何健全，如何茁壯，也只能做毫無意義的示眾的材料和看客，病死多少是不必以為不幸的。」—魯迅〈吶喊‧自序〉 1922年

移民到海外的中國人有一個令人非常討厭的常見共性﹐那就是他們愛批評收容他們的國家如何虧待他們﹐岐視他們﹐令他們怎樣做二等公民。這樣的海外中國人我見過無數﹐這類人對收容他們的國家的抱怨﹐通常不是一次性的﹐不是十年一遇的意氣話﹐而是年年講﹐月月講。即使是我的朋友﹐這樣的人﹐我也想掉頭就走 ﹐恥與為伍。我心想﹐既然你對收容自己的國家那樣不滿﹐為甚麼不返回自己的中國地方呢﹖這些自由富裕並通常奉行基督信仰的國家﹐絕沒有像中國那樣限制國民的出入境自由的﹐來去自便。這些好發牢騷的中國人也決不是被綁架而來﹐也不是獲邀請來﹐十居其九點九是自己不請自來的﹐甚至是千辛萬苦非法偷渡而來。但這些好發牢騷的中國人卻死也不肯離開﹐只是天天在埋怨被收容國虧待。

這些不斷咒罵收容國的海外中國人為甚麼賴著不走﹐返回中國呢？原因非常簡單﹐就是在祖國只會活得更悲慘。既然這樣﹐這些海外中國人不是該對其收容國叩頭感恩嗎﹖

更加令人厭惡的是﹐這些邊罵邊留邊入籍的中國人﹐往往也是頗狂熱的中國民族主義者 ﹐他們多以中國人為榮﹐但就是偏偏不想留在中國﹐或回流中國。對於中國政府奴役中國人民的措施﹐這類邊罵邊留邊入籍的海外中國人也多表支持﹐起碼也會多表諒解﹐而且他們吃飽了後還會說﹐這些收容他們的西方民主國家太自由了﹐太好福利了﹐太人道了﹐不像中國文化那樣「中庸之道」、那樣有「吃苦」的美德﹐講「禮義廉恥」……但﹐他們無論怎樣罵﹐還是要留在這些收容他們的被他們批評得處處不如中國的收容國。
誰叫你的自己祖先胡天胡帝兩千載！誰叫你的中國統治者崇尚自生自滅、天生天養！你就只好留落天涯﹐尋覓真正是愛民如子的真正禮義之邦﹐你根本就是喪家之犬﹐即使在收容國乞食也是無話可說﹐也是要感恩的。

但對收容國忘恩負義的海外中國人卻極多﹐單單這一點﹐你就明白﹐ 為甚麼中國那樣失敗﹐為甚麼那麼多中國人要淪為喪家之犬﹐因為組成這個國家的人 ﹐大都是忘恩負義、也不會反求諸己之輩﹐臭罌出臭草是也。這樣不會從恩人身上「師夷之長」﹐更不知恩義為何物的垃圾民族﹐也只能可憐兮兮的寄人籬下﹐枉入寶山﹐不可能建立自己的安樂家園的。

2012-01-17T11:28:00.000+08:00

Hey, You Chinks !

There are African Americans, Mexican Americans, Asian Americans, Arab Americans, etc. And then there are just Americans. You pass me on the street and sneer in my direction. You Call me 'White boy,' 'Cracker,' 'Honkey', 'WhiteTrash', 'White Shit' , 'Whitey,' 'Caveman' ... And that's OK. But when I call you, Spook, Nigger, Coon Eggplant...You call me a racist.

You say that whites commit a lot of violence against you, so why are the ghettos the most dangerous places to live? You have the United Negro College Fund. You have Martin Luther King Day. You have Black History Month. You have Cesar Chavez Day. You have Yom Hashoah. You have Ma'uled Al-Nabi. You have the NAACP. You have BET. If we had WET (White Entertainment Television) we'd be Racists. If we had a White Pride Day, you would call us racists. If we had White History Month, we'd be racists. If we had any Organization for only whites to 'advance' OUR lives we'd be racists. We have a Hispanic Chamber of Commerce, a Black Chamber Of Commerce, and then we just have the plain Chamber of Commerce. Wonder who pays for that? A white woman could not be in the Miss Black American pageant, but any color can be in the Miss America pageant. Why can`t we have a Miss White America contest? If we had a college fund that only gave white students scholarships you know we'd be racists.

There are over 60 openly proclaimed Black Colleges in the US . Yet if there were 'White colleges' THAT would be a racist college. In the Million Man March, you believed that you were marching for your race and Rights. If we marched for our race and rights, you would call us racists. You are proud to be black, brown, yellow and orange, and you're not afraid to announce it.

But when we announce our white pride, you call us racists. You rob us, carjack us, and shoot at us. But, when a white police officer shoots a black gang member or beats up a black drug-dealer running from the law and posing a threat to society, you call him a racist.I am proud to be White. But you call me a racist. Why is it that only whites can be racists?

I can see who the real racists are of this country and the white people didn't sell you into slavery. That has nothing to do with me or any other white person. Just because your ancestors were sold into slavery does not make me a racist today, I do not want to own you, I want you to succeed and be successful and so does every other white person. But when you make so many problems for us by making bad decisions a white person has to be the one to fix it or pay for it, now why is that. Because we are here to be happy on this planet and try and provide for our families and make comfortable lives.

Stop being racist and making up new programs that promote yourselves as African and all black. White people do not do this and if we did, you will still be pointing the finger say we were the racist ones.

2012-01-17T11:18:00.002+08:00

In Defense of “Vulture Capitalist” Mitt Romney

Seriously, the hatred toward Mitt Romney because of his private equity background has gotten a bit carried away.

Let me get this straight - for 250 years we elect nothing but lawyers (LAWYERS!) and the occasional ex-general to the White House - but someone who built a private equity firm is all of a sudden not good enough?

Look, I understand that your ideal candidate is the folksy owner of a local pharmacy who jerked root beer floats for your grandparents on Main Street and does Habitats for Humanity with his spare time, but seriously, grow up. Our economy is and has been based on some people being good at taking things away from other people for awhile now - and Mitt Romney is exceedingly good at this game. If modern-day Capitalist America were a marathon Dungeons & Dragons session, Mitt would be the motherf***ing Dungeon Master.

So yes, his firm Bain Capital came into companies, laid people off and enriched itself. So what? That's a perfectly legitimate role in the scheme of capitalism even if it's not a role that you personally would ever want to play. I personally don't want to be the guy at a multi-national corporation that decides to relocate a manufacturing plant from Kentucky to Kazakhstan - but someone has to if the company is to remain competitive. I personally don't want to work as a public defender, sticking up for murderers and rapists in the American justice system - but someone has to if the Constitution is to be upheld. Mitt's industry takes over companies that will likely not remain viable for long based on bloated cost structures and unexploited opportunity. Done correctly, private equity involvement cleans out dead wood and puts the right people into place. Sure, they enrich themselves along the way - but that's what they are supposed to be doing - should they work for the entertainment value? To have a place to go in the morning? Give me a break.

And besides, Mitt is good at it. Was a serial business failure like W any better just because we approved of the industries he failed in (oil and baseball)?

So yes, I'm probably voting for Mitt unless someone digs up a graveyard full of infant carcasses behind his house or something. He's smart, capable, understands the economy, is not owned by the church or the labor unions and he probably won't embarrass us on the world's stage. he's not a drinker, a smoker or a philanderer that we know of. He's also not borderline illiterate or proud of his own ignorance (which seems to be the in-thing in his party these days).
A casual perusal of the landscape shows that Mitt is the only viable choice for me in a tough year for American political leadership...

1. Obama: Nice guy, in way over his head, has a flawed ideology and no clue how business works. I didn't vote for him in 2008 but when he won I was rooting for him to fix the place. And then he blew his mandate on Healthcare rather than the economy and straightening out the financial system. And inexplicably doubled down in Afghanistan. He needs to go.

2. Huntsman: In a perfect world, he would be vice president and teed up for an eventual run. He's probably the most qualified to do the job, but his worldliness, willingness to work with Dems and forward-thinking mentality are all detrimental in the GOP primary process (a process by which the candidate who demonstrates the most willingness to bring back Norman Rockwell's America wins). Huntsman thought it would be a good idea to speak flawless Mandarin before an audience of the Republican base, he may as well have put on a pink cowgirl's costume with ass-less chaps and bowed down to Allah, boy does he not know his audience...

3. Gingrich: Newt is the most polarizing of the candidates, the Dems would probably force themselves to fall back in love with Obama just to grab enough independents to beat him. He can't convert middle of the road, rational independents like Mitt can.

4. Paul: Ron loses as soon as the question of Defense and Military spending enters into the discussion - within his own party, let alone in a national contest.

5. Santorum: His childlike sense of wonder and storybook views on science are adorable, but frankly, this is like George W Bush without the charm. The medieval judgmentalism makes him unlikely to pull swing voters either, hence his candidacy would be a give-away to team Obama.

6. Perry: I'm too busy to say anything substantive about
Ricky Bobby
Rick Perry right now. Let's just say my fancy book-learnin' doesn't permit the two of us to see eye to eye on very much.

Let's not get too political here, let's be pragmatic. Your choice here is basically a bunch of guys who cannot win a national contest, a guy who already won and has proven that he's not up to the job, OR a guy with business experience who has a good shot at winning over the middle ground - despite the fact that you may not love what he did for a living prior to public life.

Not a very tough choice at all. At least not for a pragmatist like me.

Mish

2012-01-17T11:14:00.000+08:00

不要讓台灣變成第二個香港

社交網站facebook這幾天有一個帖子在我腦海晃來晃去，那是一條四十二秒長短片，配了音樂，剪接不算很業餘，只是那帶着廣東口音的國語聽來有點怪怪。說的是香港快要給大陸人淹沒，從小學到大學學位都如是，片末有一句旁白說「獅子山下還會有出頭天嗎？」從政治正確來說，這種手法未免有操弄族群省籍矛盾之嫌，但又確實說到幾百萬生於斯長於斯的地道香港人心裏。片完了，黑底白字打出一堆文字﹕不要讓台灣變成第二個香港。

一些朋友這幾天跨海去台北看大選，在whatsapp上發回來的短訊是希望蔡英文勝出。這種情况很普遍，連久未見過的小林也因着南方朔表態支持蔡英文而雀躍。這種心態在周邊認識的朋友裏不少。這到底是一種什麼心情的折射？是不怕民進黨上台後兩岸兵戎相見？（回應是中共試射導彈早已有之），抑或兩岸關係倒退到斷絕這四年的經貿往來？（回應是好哇，斷了三通，香港保住轉口貿易這一塊）。我想，這些書念得很好的年輕朋友絕不是盲目好戰主義分子，他們的想法是悲情下的反彈，this city is dying，唯一能夠挺抗中共的只有民進黨，對陰霾漫天going nowhere的香港而言，等於是濁浪惡水上的燈塔。

「台灣」不是地理名詞，是一九四九年國共內戰結束後的一個政治名詞，是等於毋忘在莒、光復神州、克難救國、漢賊不兩立的意思。當然，在某幾十年間，「台灣」也代表了高壓統治、警特橫行、民主無望的多重意義。至於更貼近平民百姓的「台灣」，一九八八年之前是人人不宜居之的一個島，恐怕台灣朋友還記得「牙刷主義」這詞——兩蔣當道年間，台灣大款人人都想移民外國，有些家庭幾乎第二三代都走光變成小美國人或小澳洲人，留下父母在台北賺最後一桶金。那些子女都不在身邊的父母就是牙刷主義者——只留下一柄牙刷，要走馬上就可以走。那天讀報，讀到宋楚瑜原來曾經在美國修了一個圖書館學碩士，馬上就笑了出來，宋先生可能也一度是逃兵。七十年代中葉，美國甚缺圖書館管理員，有這個學位，很容易找到工作兼留在美國。宋先生也許是例外，但也許不。但其他的台灣的美國大學圖書館學碩士，八九不離十必定是與意圖留在美國有關。

說這些出來，不是取笑台灣人，香港也有這些情况，二十幾年前「六四」還未發生，也是大批大批移民加拿大，還創了一個語帶相關的詞語「太空人」。我的親友裏大不乏人，從山東膠西到上海溫州到香港到英國/加拿大/澳洲。大半生在過客身分中渡過，那是轉徙神州天地間的怱忙狼狽，說得直接一點，由北而南都是在逃避共產黨。到英國人快走，又得打包袱西進，輕描淡寫一句「我去land了」，丟下了大半生在這小島擁有的一切，變賣細軟去了冰天雪地的洋人國度。我還記得九十年代初回到香港時，聽到藝人曾志偉的一句黑色喜劇笑話直插心脾﹕貧賤不能移……，過了兩秒，才冒出一個字﹕民。那是千家萬戶在太平洋彼岸的避秦之夢。

不算垂死也半死不活

當香港和台灣的同質性如此相近，當香港來到今天的縱然不算垂死之城也是半死不活，回歸十五年不到就接連丟城失地了。有人說，香港不是好好嗎，連續十八年榮膺自由經濟體第一，香港的人民幣離岸中心多次得到中共高層信誓旦旦保證，香港更能比台灣領受中國大陸崛起的庇蔭。我同意這些，絕對沒有一絲異議，然而我想問﹕十五年前有沒有中共幹部和你爭論中國人和香港人的身分認同應不應該在民意調查列出來？十五年前的新華社有今天中聯辦的高姿態麼？十五年前的一國兩制是如何實踐而今天的一國已取代兩制你知道嗎？

香港社會有看法認為，這幾年一些反對內地人反對中共插手香港的行動和思潮，是因為香港經濟凋敝的自卑心作崇。我不能夠完全同意這種以偏概全的說法，如果就是這麼回事，香港年輕人到尖沙嘴D&G門外拍照就不僅發生在今天，八九十年代日本歐美遊客都在廣東道摩肩接踵，要反對要眼紅，不應該是當下。至於所謂反對內地人心態之說更是不明所以，反對什麼，只是因為一些同胞在街上撒尿拉屎？太兒戲的反對理由了吧。如果這樣討厭內地人，每年「六四」就不會十幾萬人其中包括大量年輕一代，坐在維園熬一個汗流浹背或淒風苦雨的晚上來悼念二十幾年前壓成肉醬的內地人。

聒噪的香港一些人

香港社會對台灣選舉的關注和關切，是一種唇亡齒寒的入神凝視。老實說，馬英九或蔡英文當選，對香港七百萬人的宏觀影響並不深邃，關心的是有沒有能力抵擋北京的各式介入或干擾。統獨在這次台灣大選不再是議題，也就是說，所謂「把台灣從中國脫離出去」的爭論不復存在，相反，人們以更加務實的角度來觀察這次選舉前的一切，而非選舉後的發展。選舉前的一切，是指中共對台灣選舉的任何形式影響或介入，人們看到兩個層次的走向——從文宣而言，中共完全避免公開討論台灣選舉的結果或評論任何主要政黨，這種禁足，是因為九十年代台灣首次民選總統前解放軍試射導彈，結果把李登輝送進總統府的教訓。這種不發一言的做法，在香港社會留下很奇異的印記﹕香港這些年沒有一刻能夠享受類似的政治靜謐。惡形惡相和惡言惡語，以一國和兩制的主客互換進入我們的政治生活；那是聒噪的人生體驗，簡單而言是令人感到討厭。難得是台灣能令世界上最喜歡說話的政治組織閉嘴，太了不起。

然而香港社會也看到台灣的無奈一面。中國大陸的經濟猛潮無法阻擋，馬英九打的兩岸穩定牌，潛台詞是一旦沒有兩岸穩定，台灣經濟不保。與香港一樣，台灣經受了經濟滑坡的打擊，大陸打開自由行這一大門，台灣零售業和旅遊業稍見起色。這道板斧在香港身上極為受用，台灣在特立獨行和倚靠大陸之間受到考驗，能否以這次選舉向中共說不，是人們殷切關心的最核心原因。在一些港人心目中，台灣在利益和原則之間如何取捨怎樣取捨，是這些人未來人生一個重要風向標。攤開來說，若能夠抵擋一陣，保住香港傳統價值的不妨再看一會；如果兵敗如山倒，那就只得另謀打算。

大放厥詞的低級官員

香港成為台灣未來的樣板，台灣倒過來是香港的希望，這種互相倚傍的政治氛圍背景，是中共完全拋棄毛周年代處理港台事務精神之後的事。一九四九年，解放軍席捲大江南北，葉飛兵團進攻金門，就是沒有踏入香港，因為毛周考慮是對香港國際地位的長期打算。果不其然，韓戰爆發，中共便是通過香港這窗口運進亟需的各類物資。韓戰結束五十年紀念大會在北京舉行，霍英東位列席上，這一安排說明了，於中共而言，五十年代的香港有幸仍在英國人手上。六十七十以及八十年代，中共對香港都以實用主義當頭的「用」字為主；到了回歸伊始，江澤民放手讓董建華處理港務。那時中共駐港機構低調得不能再低調，姜恩柱是中聯辦主任，來了香港退休回去都不為廣大巿民所知。二○○三年之後，中共插手港事，時至今天，一國兩制不忍卒睹，低級官員指東講西大放厥詞，一切政治當頭，彷彿回到那十年浩劫的不堪歲月。

台灣到今天還算能夠挺住的原因是一千八百萬張選票，中共如何不信普選制度，但一千八百萬人畢竟是要討好的。一旦厥詞說過了頭，一旦質疑為什麼把中國人和台灣人分開進行民調，這一千八百萬選票就會回以顏色，是某些人欺善怕惡的明證。這是鐵一般事實，幾百枚M族導彈對準台灣不能解決這問題，因為台灣有防衛力量。這和國際人格沒有多大關係，卻和流血死人有絕大關係。要以武力解決台灣問題，今天中共完全有此能力，但打仗是要死人的，要付的政治成本遠高於人命成本。這是海峽兩岸近年隱而不宣的關鍵詞，更是中美關係的核心，台灣是槓桿的支點，美國通過軍援台灣，把寶島變成第七艦隊的一艘永不沉沒的航空母艦，讓台灣永遠成為美國手上的一隻牌。打狗看主人，台灣在中美之間有着相對裕餘的政治活動空間。因此美國在中美關係上一直使詐要保持這一操作空間，三大公報中的《八一七公報》，講好了美國向台灣售武限制，還說明售武質量不能超越上一次水平，事實是簽署公報時台灣空軍用的是美製F5E戰機，今天是 F16戰機。

鋼鐵是這樣煉成的

不要讓台灣變成第二個香港，說得泄氣點是一廂情願的企盼，是不想香港從此成為中國大陸某一城巿的主觀之念，是想香港變成另一個台灣的幻想。我說這是幻想，是因為台港間的迥異，這既有先天的因素——不容北京承認還是不承認，台灣是主權國家，擁有自己的軍隊和國際人格；台灣有極其光輝的爭取民主傳統，從兩蔣黑暗時代的殷海光到小蔣時代的黃信介，還有數之不盡的施明德康寧祥李敖許信良等等等等。那是無分統獨的年代，卻是押到警備總司令部把你一口牙齒拔光用刑的日子。那是把你兩條肩膀扭得脫臼讓你像狗那樣趴在地上拷問的日子。那是李敖的書在印刷廠印製時警總派人去搶的日子。台灣民主不是靠吹出來的，鋼鐵是這樣煉成的。

2012-01-17T11:11:00.000+08:00

凶兆 / Bad Moon Rising

Italian Cruise Ship Wreck: Missing Grows to 29

2012-01-16T20:44:00.000+08:00

S&P May Downgrade Japan - Oh Yawn......

But on contrary to all the usual dooms and gloom said on Japan, BBC last night ran a short documentary of how Japan has been "predicted" to die for the past 20 years but yet they are still there. The host takes note that their unemployment is merely 4.5% while US and UK are near double digits and there were never any massive retrenchment. I think the most important item is that almost all the Japanese debts are held by Japanese themselves and culturally they are ever willing to take a haircut in case the government is unable to service the debts. The host herself admits in the west , the opposite is true:-

In an effort to halt expansion of Japan's massive public debt, Japan's Prime Minister Seeks Doubling National Sales Tax.

Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda said containing Japan’s public debt load, the world’s largest, is critical after Standard & Poor’s downgraded credit ratings on France, Austria and seven other European nations.

Europe’s fiscal situation “isn’t a house burning on the other side of the river,” Noda said on TV Tokyo Holdings Corp.’s program on Jan. 14. “We must have a great sense of crisis.”

Noda reshuffled his cabinet last week, aiming to win support for doubling Japan’s 5 percent national sales tax by 2015 to trim the soaring debt. S&P said in November Noda’s administration hadn’t made progress in tackling the public debt burden, an indication the credit-rating company may be preparing to lower the nation’s sovereign grade.

Japan’s government, which has enjoyed borrowing costs that are around 1 percent, wouldn’t be able to manage its finances if bond yields surged to 3 percent, Noda said last week. The country risks seeing a spike in government bond yields unless it controls a debt load set to approach 230 percent of gross domestic product in 2013, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said on Nov. 28.

‘Worse and Worse’

Japan’s finances are “getting worse and worse every day, every second,” Takahira Ogawa, Singapore-based director of sovereign ratings at S&P, said in an interview on Nov. 24. Asked if this means he’s closer to lowering Japan’s credit rating, he said it “may be right in saying that we’re closer to a downgrade.”

S&P rates Japan AA- and has had a negative outlook on the rating since April. Ogawa said Japan needs a “comprehensive approach” to containing its debt burden, which the government has projected will exceed 1 quadrillion yen ($13 trillion) in the year through March as the nation pays for reconstruction costs from March’s record earthquake.

The International Monetary Fund has said a gradual increase of Japan’s sales tax to 15 percent “could provide roughly half of the fiscal adjustment needed to put the public-debt ratio on a downward path.”

No Winning Play for Japan

If Japan hikes taxes and reduces spending, the Yen will strengthen, and Japanese exports sink.

Demographics and balance of trade issues suggest there will still be insufficient buyers of Japanese bonds that need to be rolled over. Raising taxes in a global recession is not a wise thing to do as it will inhibit growth.

On the other hand, if Japan turns to printing, which I believe it eventually will, Japan would likely go into an inflation spiral.

Massive Debt Rollover Problem

Country	2012 Bond, Bill Redemptions ($)	Coupon Payments
Japan	3000 billion	117 billion
U.S.	2783 billion	212 billion
Italy	428 billion	72 billion
France	367 billion	54 billion
Germany	285 billion	45 billion
Canada	221 billion	14 billion
Brazil	169 billion	31 billion
U.K.	165 billion	67 billion
China	121 billion	41 billion
India	57 billion	39 billion
Russia	13 billion	9 billion

For a understanding of the global debt rollover problem. World’s Biggest Economies Face $7.6T Debt Led by Japan $3 trillion, U.S. $2.8 trillion; Rollover Problems in Japan and Europe

There are no winning plays for Japan, given a debt load set to hit 230 percent of gross domestic product. The US would be advised to pay attention.

2012-01-16T20:41:00.001+08:00

「這個世紀最大的泡沫」

在2011年，許多中國開發商被迫開始拋售房屋。因此造成價格削減30%、40%、甚至50％。

最近幾年分析家不斷提出警告，中國房地產泡沫隱然形成，最近這個勢頭更加明顯。兩個月前，上海地產開發商開始削減新建豪華公寓價格達三分之一。一些最近以高價購買公寓的屋主群聚在銷售辦事處，要求退款。北京清華大學經濟管理學院副教授程致宇（Patrick Chovanec）12月18日在《外交事務》雜誌撰文指出，專家的警告似乎已經成真。一旦中國房市泡沫破裂，不只中國，連國際經濟都會受到嚴重波及，不過中國房地產泡沫的破裂並非都是壞事。

突然之間，中國各地的房地產市場發生大幅降價的現象。根據房地產網站鏈家在線（Homelink）的消息，北京新屋價格在11月單單一個月就下滑了 35%，而且房價暴跌可能會持續一段時間。中原地產（Centaline）估計，開發商在北京有22個月未售出的空屋量，上海則是21個月。

每個人現在都擔心，中國房價大降預示了「這個世紀最大的泡沫」即將破裂，影響層面不只是中國，也包括國際社會。

前景黯淡逃生無路

未來的前景看來是格外暗淡，因為情勢一旦急轉直下，根本沒有逃生之路。一旦中國的投資者因恐慌而急於退場，他們會發現，很難找到買方。北京讓房地產市場白熱化太久了，當被迫需採取行動時，市場已經不相信政府。

中國的投資者，無論資本大小，都在創造市場。十餘年來，他們認為房價會一直上升是長期趨勢，有人甚至購買十幾間房子，然後讓房屋空在那裡。估計這種閒置的房子，有1000萬到6500萬間之間。

空置房地產熱大部分是因為缺乏其他的的投資途徑。

中共當局嚴格控制資本流出，使得大多數中國人無法在海外投資。中國銀行存款的利率很低，去年甚至低於消費者物價指數膨脹率。大眾把中國國內過去幾年來大幅起落的股票交易，看成是高風險的賭場。相對而言，中國自從1990年代開放私有房屋所有權之後，房地產投資反而像是一個長期保本的賭注。

為了維持將近10%的GDP成長，中共擴大貨幣供給將近三分之二。房地產本來就是中國人喜歡投資的標的，如此一來，房地產價格更是因勢上揚：在許多地方，新屋的價格在短短的兩年增加了一倍。

投機哄抬房價，讓實際需要住房的人陷入了困境。

以2011年春天房價為例，北京一般受薪階級可能需要工作36年，才能買到一間普通的房子，而相對地，在新加坡則只需要18年，在紐約只需要12年，而在法蘭克福更只要5年。哄抬價格的戰爭更進一步的逼迫開發商建築更昂貴的房子，這些房子是投資者所渴望的，但卻只有少數百姓買得起。

建商拋售房價下跌

先前房地產市場的白熱化促使開發商持續地建築大量的房產，房地產投資每年成長了將近30%。但是通膨從2010年的1.5%上升到2011年 6.5%的高峰，當局才開始煩惱。

他們加大了冷卻市場的力量。央行緊縮信用擴張，中國的經濟開始緩慢下來了。2011年時，開發商必須找到新的融資管道，以維持其積壓的庫存。他們以前依賴銀行貸款，直到貸款被緊縮；然後依賴香港的高獲利債券，直到市場惡化；然後是依恃私人投資工具，最後在某些情況之下是依靠高利貸。在2011年夏末，許多中國開發商已經用盡了辦法，於是被迫開始拋售。因此造成價格削減30%、40%、甚至50％。

最大的懸而未決的問題是﹕所有買房卻讓房子閒置成為「鬼」公寓及別墅的現有投資者，是否將加入拋售行列？果真如此的話，可能造成市場陷入崩潰的局面。雖然目前為止，投資人拋售空屋還未出現，但11月北京舊屋價格僅下滑3%，交易數量卻暴跌50％（深圳交易量也下降了50％、天津57％、長沙79％），這些數字說明了許多投資者願意賣出房子，但卻難以找到買主。想買房者現在傾向等待，以找尋更好的交易。

房市惡化影響國內外

中國房市的惡化不只影響國內以賣地籌措資金的地方政府及國內相關產業，也將波及到國際社會相關的產業。

根據中原地產的計算，11月有超過100筆地方政府的土地拍賣失敗，且2011年北京的土地銷售收益下降了15%。沒有這些收益，地方政府無法償還為建設計畫設施所借的鉅額款項，也無法償還他們為保持明年GDP成長的多餘債款。

房地產的難題已經讓中國經濟發出警訊。大部分由建築業所驅動之中國的鋼鐵生產，從2011年 6月以來已經下滑了15%，且將近三分之一的中國鋼鐵製造者目前都在賠本狀態。深圳已經有一半的房地產經紀人關門了。

在一些諸如沿海的溫州及煤炭資源豐富的鄂爾多斯等城市，房地產價格的崩塌引發了全面爆發的信貸危機，已經出現商人跳樓的報導，有些正在逃離中國。北京已經准許溫州的銀行，擴大緊急貸款給陷入困境的借款人。當然官員可能會只給予開發商足夠的廉價貸款，以停止拋售，使他們能夠保持庫存。但是這種策略有再度助長泡沫膨脹。

房地產建設目前約占中國總GDP的10%，比2005年美國房市泡沫時的高峰超出了4個百分點。

房地產的巨大損失及相關的借貸問題也可能傷害中國投資者及消費者的信心，房市下滑也將對國際社會造成衝擊。助長中國建築業熱潮的國際供應商，從澳洲及巴西的鐵砂礦業者、智利的銅礦業者、加拿大及蘇俄的橡膠業者及諸如機具製造商卡特彼勒（Caterpillar）和Komatsu等，可能都會受到嚴重的打擊。

因禍得福﹖

雖然泡沫破裂聽來讓人害怕，但中國房地產泡沫破裂並非都是壞消息。更便宜、更買得起的住房也可能打開中國工薪階層家庭的儲蓄，釋放出更大的消費者需求，以幫助重新平衡全球經濟，長期閒置於房地產的資金也可以流向更有效率的產業。這些調整已經被拖延太久了，這就是何以儘管有風險，中共當局也不得不採行修正措施的原因，然而，他們知道他們如今已經是走在剃刀邊緣上了。